Derby/Oaks Future Wager Pool 2
 

2009 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2

NO. HORSE ODDS
1. Bear’s Rocket* 50-1
2. Beethoven 30-1
3. Big Drama 30-1
4. Chocolate Candy 30-1
5. Desert Party* 30-1
6. Dunkirk* 12-1
7. Flying Pegasus 20-1
8. Friesan Fire 12-1
9. General Quarters* 30-1
10. Giant Oak 20-1
11. Hello Broadway 30-1
12. I Want Revenge 10-1
13. Imperial Council* 20-1
14. Old Fashioned 8-1
15. Papa Clem 15-1
16. Patena 15-1
17. Pioneerof the Nile 10-1
18. Quality Road (N)* 12-1
19. Silver City 30-1
20. Take the Points* 30-1
21. The Pamplemousse 10-1
22. Theregoesjojo* 15-1
23. West Side Bernie 30-1
24. All Other Three-Year-Olds 8-1

2009 Kentucky Oaks Future Wager Pool

NO. HORSE ODDS
1. Be Fair 20-1
2. Bon Jovi Girl 20-1
3. Devotee 20-1
4. Dream Empress 15-1
5. Elusive Heat 10-1
6. Empressive Lady 20-1
7. Fitz Just Right 20-1
8. Four Gifts 20-1
9. Frolic's Dream 20-1
10. Haka 30-1
11. Just Jenda 20-1
12. Justwhistledixie 12-1
13. Laragh 15-1
14. Nan 30-1
15. Our Dahlia 30-1
16. Persistently 20-1
17. Rachel Alexandra 6-1
18. Renda 50-1
19. Rock Candy 30-1
20. Sky Diva 20-1
21. Stardom Bound 5-1
22. Third Dawn 50-1
23. What A Pear 15-1
24. All Other 3YO Fillies 10-1

So many of the horses are running this weekend...

When were the horses/odds selected? I looked online for them this morning and didn't see them.

Big IF...

Does anyone know when Pool 2 closes?? All others at 8-1 looks really nice right now with this field

Big Drama is now off the trail, just hours after being listed as one of the 23 individual betting interests in Pool 2.

I really, really want to go off on a tangent right now.

I kind of like Bear's Rocket at 50-1 but if he runs well at TBD like I expect him to, he won't be that price.

Desert Party is a halfway decent price at 30-1. It's not great, but at least he has a shot and isn't 10,12-1. Most of the odds are too low take this far out.

I like the 6-1 on Rachel Alexandra.:o

Elusive Heat is the 3rd shortest price horse?

I thought they were going to keep her sprinting?

They passed on running her seven furlongs last time against a pair of horses she photo'd with after a typically silly and overly passive ride Prado specializes in giving speed sprinters.

Nan.

Strong rumor that she's entered in the 6f G3 Cicada this weekend @ AQU.... My guess is the 7f G2 Comely afterward and never even a remote thought entertained with regard to this race. Could be wrong, but it sure seems doubtful given her success short and her ped - a G1 1 1/8th would be insane for her


EDIT- NOT going in the Cicada -

I wouldn't be surprised to see her in the Cicada, it being a G2 and all. The Comely is actually a mile, but I agree that a race like that certainly wouldn't set her up for the Oaks. Her being the 3rd choice is a tad ridiculous and I don't really see her getting 8.5 furlongs let alone 9.

NT

I agree with the distance limitations. If they keep her short, she could be a nice one. They probably put her in the pool just to take some ill-advised money that gets thrown at these things.

Fire away, watch out for Hello Broadway while you're at it.

It hasn't even opened yet. The Derby betting closes at 6pm Sunday.

The "All Others" in Pool 2 has never closed above 7.00-1.

--Dunbar

Love Haka at any odds!

COLTS and FILLIES PP'S AVAILABLE AT BAFFERT'S PAGE FOR PP'S:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm

Yeah, I might have him rated too high. We'll know more this weekend.

Here's a link to the real time Future Wager odds.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/future-wager/odds

As of right now, about 4:50EST, you can be the first to bet on the Bears Rocket/Dunkirk exacta.

--Dunbar

I guess you are right, because right now they are showing the "Pool Total" to be $6,886, yet somehow several of the exactas show "Exacta Odds" of 11,155.20. Is that for a 50c exacta bet, or what?

--Dunbar

Also of interest...it looks like Big Drama has taken some exacta action. That's weird. Couldn't they block betting on the "scratched" horse?

--Dunbar

Why would they want to do that?

They don't get to keep the money. All they get is some bettors who may eventually realize that they have been totally screwed.

--Dunbar

Beethoven taking a bunch of $$ for some reason.

Cause the people that place their bets before the weekend races are run are idiots.

Quality Road has drifted up to 17-1 early and without a race this weekend, he may get lost in the shuffle.

The panel who determines the individual betting interests has been terrible this year. In Pool 1 they had a bunch of big fig sprinters. Here they include sprinter Big Drama who hasn't run and missed at least a month of training in Feb and March. On the filly side they include a filly whose trainer says she's not pointing to the Oaks in Dream Empress. McPeek said in January that the was pointing to the Oaks at Epsom and that she's not a dirt horse. These guys work for the Form, but do they read the Form?

For comparison, here are current odds at TheGreek.com. (These are not parimutual--ie, your odds don't change after you bet.)

They'll take these odds down before the races tomorrow. I doubt they'll put them up again on Sunday. For these odds, I calculated that the takeout is just 9.7%.

"+4550" means 45.5 to 1

2201 Bears Rocket +4550
2202 Beethoven +3550
2203 Big Drama scratch
2204 Chocolate Candy +4050
2205 Desert Party +1415
2206 Dunkirk +1300
2207 Flying Pegasus +3550
2208 Friesan Fire +1815
2209 General Quarters +3050
2210 Giant Oak +2550
2211 Hello Broadway +2550
2212 I Want Revenge +1200
2213 Imperial Council +2550
2214 Old Fashioned +845
2215 Papa Clem +4050
2216 Patena +2550
2217 Pioneer of the Nile +1325
2218 Quality Road +1815
2219 Silver City +6050
2220 Take the Points +6050
2221 The Pamplemousse +2050
2222 Theregoesjojo +3050
2223 West Side Bernie +4050
2224 Any Other Horse +485

--Dunbar

They get to keep some of it, or else they wouldn't offer it. They don't open the doors for the heck of it.

Actually, i thought about this for a while last night and whomever did it is really smart. If the rules apply like they could, I.E. you scratch into the post time favorite, you are getting the raceday Derby favorite at a ridiculously high price. I'd check into it to verify that's the case though.

Dunkirk is currently 5-1. LOL

Like any other bet, they keep the takeout, the rest goes to winning bettors. I understand that the panel consists of 3 members, two of whom are Form employees who don't appear to read their own paper. It is in the best interest of Churchill Downs, if they want to develop fan interest by conducting this wager to get the best possible information before selecting the horses to include. A couple of phone calls to the trainers involved to confirm that the horses are "on track" and "aiming" for the race in question would have been sufficient.

I imagine that the "favorite" you'd scratch into is the favorite at the close of that wager, not the post time fave in the Derby.

Will you scratch into anything? All the horses listed will not get into the derby. If you pick a horse that does not make it you don't get a refund. Wouldn't a scratched runner just be another horse that does not make the derby? I could be wrong but I doubt there will be scratch substitutions.