I Want revenge
 

His nice improvement a result of the distance, training on the pro ride, moving to the dirt, the inner at AU,maturity, or just a combination of all of these?

You forgot the lesser competition.

i've also read where it was one of the stronger gothams-so how is it suddenly lesser competition?


jpops-he lost by a scant nose to POTN. and then he obviously handled a dirt surface as well....

Its the same old stale response to a horse that puts out a nice performance. A horse can't just be given credit anymore for being good, its always lesser competition.

Guess she meant the likes of Pioneer of the Nile, ChocolateCandy and Papa Clem are superior to Imperial Council and Mr. Fantasy.

You know she's right

PS How good does that make Pioneer of the Nile look now

Dirt.

hmmmmm that 113 speed figure proves it, it was the lesser competition:rolleyes:

Yeah, pedigree buffs must be all about the California contingent. I mean you have to love those bloodlines on The Pamplemousse, right?

NT

I am sure you were more impressed with Pletchers 2 MSW winners compition, than the winners that Revenge beat. How cynical.

All it means is that POTN loves synthetic and I Want Revenge prefers dirt.
I'm guessing I Want Revenge would beat POTN on a conventional dirt track

And when you stop guessing.....then they will fear you.

Think we'll end up seeing that

all we still know is he looks good on synthetics. and how good is a good horse if you say lack of competition is why he won? then he was not so good, just better than the field-and i don't believe that.

not necessarily

He did not improve all that much, if you are handicapping a race and think a synthetic based horses is going to run well on dirt then add 5-10 points to the figure. I add more for front runners and less for closers. It has worked pretty well for me. Now there is no guarantee that they will run well but that seems to be the range for the difference in figures.

Einstein ran well at Santa Anita but I think earned a pretty poor figure, 103, horses in the past on dirt dont win that race with 103's.

This last line contradicts your whole statement. If you believe, as you say you do, that synthetic figures are 5-10 points lower than dirt figures then Einstein's 100 Beyer is pretty decent, once you kick in the added points plus a couple more for him being a "stalker."

NT

Of course it's just an opinion, if you believe like many people do that POTN is more of a turf horse who has taken to the synthetic tracks in California.

Barring injury, both should be at Churchill on 5/2 and we'll find out. :)

????

No it doesnt....if he got a 100 at SA for the big cap, if he ran that same race in the Donn on dirt my guess is it would be a 105-110 figure. This is completely general and unscientific but the proof is getting pretty staggering that the figures on synthetic are generally slower then dirt if the two efforts are about equal.

POTN though has run on dirt, isnt that a little different case then say IWR?

Now he could have improved as a horse, especially given the trainers ability with three year old colts but I would be a little bit concerned backing POTN at a short price.

I completely agree that the synthetic numbers are slower than dirt.

However, you wrote that Einstein won the Big Cap with a 103 (It was actually a 100).

You then said that that figure was pretty poor but if you use your system (which seems perfectly logical) then you get a dirt BSF of around 108-110. That number wins most handicap races in this sad year.

NT

well obviously I wasnt using the system I employ making that statement.

A horse I would love to get on dirt on a flat mile is Matto Mondo, the Met would be perfect. His 103 two back is probably closer to 108-113 which makes him competitive and he should be a value with such lowish figures in the form. MM ran the best mile of the year on pro ride, got a 103...the best main track mile for horses at santa anita, in front running fashion dont get 103's historically.

.....no $Hi^:rolleyes:

I/C will get closer to him in the wood!

POTN has never raced on dirt and wont until the Derby. His former trainer (Mott) said that he trained fine on dirt before his debut. The only reason he went to grass was because he was looking for a route and the colt was race fit and ready early in the Saratoga meet. The only place to get a route in NY before September is on grass.
IWR handled dirt in NY and was beaten a nose by the "best horse" in Cali (not saying he's the Derby winner, but he's beaten everyone out there except The Pamplmousse) so I think that makes him a legit contender for the classics.

:zz:

I do like Papa Chem, he looks like a horse that will like dirt. Don't like Nile though

In her defense,the horse was dropping in class huge.With the exception of Haynesfield,{who was nowhere to be found in the race}and Russell Road{a winner of restricted and statebred sprints}This horse was taking on 1st level allowance company.I want Revenge broke his maiden on the stretch out,and went right to G1/G2 competition and ran very respectfully.He should have,and did,handle the Gotham field very well with no problems.Basically a walkover,if you ask me.

It's just this idea that IWR somehow flattered POTN that makes no sense.

The only thing I fear now is Jon White's segment with Steve tomorrow on At the Races.
If the amount of affection he had for POTN made you uncomfortable before, I hate to hear what he says tomorrow, knowing how well I Want Revenge ran in the Gotham.
Steve might have to tell the two of them to get a room.
:rolleyes:

If it was a huge drop in class and the race was a walkover for the horse, why didnt the public recognize this and make the horse 3/5? The horse didnt even go off the favorite. Running a 113 beyer to win the way he did doesnt make it a walkover imo either.

This is what I saw.I Want Revenge was the class stickout in the field.I don't care what the public saw and I am glad,as I got good odds and made a good score.

Don't even bother. If a horse wins a stakes by open lengths, the runners behind him/her become mutts the moment they hit the wire. People like this will always overvalue synthetic performances because there are fewer romps, which MUST mean the competition is stiffer.

:rolleyes:

my bad, for some reason I thought he ran poorly on dirt. Lazy handicapping on my part.

So,a second in a G1 by a nose,and a 3rd in a grade 2,both at the same distance of the Gotham,and you can't see this horse was the class of the race?He was the only horse in the race with graded stakes placings!! Yes,it was a walkover for him.I am not putting down the other horses in the race,but He should have,and did,beat them with ease.

I looked up his training from last season. Before his debut (Aug 4) he worked 5x. Three of the works were on dirt. None were fast but this is Mott and his grass works were not fast either. Between his debut and his maiden win, he worked a slow 4f on dirt then worked 2 more times between his maiden win and his ship to KY for the Keeneland stakes. All his dirt works were at Oklahoma so they look slow as that is a deep surface.

I must have missed where you said this before the race.

So much (after the fact) about a 3:1 shot trying the dirt for the 1st time. And to think, Einstein payed 5:1.

I must be missing some nuance here. :rolleyes:

I didn't say it before the race.The topic is about the competition of the race,and I gave my opinion of why I think Pedigree Ann is correct. That is all.I am not looking for an argument,as i think you are,since you are changing the subject.Good day.

That's twice as many demerits as redboarding.

Steppenwolfer II, electric Boogaloo