Jan 24th at GP just keeps looking weirder and weirder
 

Jan 24th being Sunshine Millions day.

* Race #5 was run at 3:12 eastern time. It was a 3yo MSW race at 7fs. Dunkirk won it by 5 3/4 lengths over 2nd place finisher Santana Six in a laughably slow 1:25.00

* Race #6 was a turf race

* Race #7 was run at 4:08 eastern time. It was the Sunshine Millions dash at 6fs. This One's For Phil won it in a strong 1:09.10

Obviously, that 15.90 second discrepancy in time would suggest the difference between the nations best older male sprinter in victory and a rock bottom $5,000 claiming older male sprinter in victory.

The problem is that Dunkirk just embarassed an allowance field on Thursday and Santana Six just impressively won a MSW race on Saturday that was the faster of split heats.

Dunkirk's Beyer jumped from a 78 to a 98. Santana Six's from a 66 to a 95.

When I talked about Dunkirk's debut won on the radio and in a thread here - I basically said I wanted absolutely no part of the horse next time he runs. Not only because of the comicaly slow final time .. but because the early pace in that race was run through supersonic fast fractions for the level...and Dunkirk wasn't involved in the early pace.

The three horses you wanted from Dunkirk's race were obviously Santana Six, King's Village, and Ziegfeld. They battled for the lead in the top 3 positions through both the lightening fast first quarter mile and half mile - before all quitting.

Santana Six ran 29 points better and won back next out, Ziegfeld ran 46 points better when he upset a MSW race at 16/1 odds next out, King's Village has yet to run back.

Dunkirk, however, was one of the ones you couldn't possibly want as a bettor. And he ran head scratchingly well burrying that field at 6/5 on Thursday.

There where just two other dirt races on the card prior to Dunkirk's win.

* Race #3 won by Indy's Sonata.. who has yet to run back. 2nd place finisher Run All Day won yesterday's 1st race by 3 lengths - and her figure will improve double digits. The 5th place finisher came back and ran 3rd by just 2 lengths in a stake next out - her figure improving 21 points.

* Race #1 won by Radio Relay. He hasn't run back yet. Neither has the 2nd place finisher. However, 3rd place finisher Bruno's A Biter has run back. He won by 5 1/4 lengths at 7/2 odds and his figure improved 13 points.


That leaves only a pair of stakes won by This One For Phil's and High Resolve as the remaining one-turn dirt races on the card.

Obviously none of the serious horses from TOFP's race have run back - the third place finisher from HR's race did run back.. but only improved her Beyer 3 points.

This is starting to get real interesting to me - because I refuse to believe that This One's For Phil ran much faster than the 116 Beyer given. But the fact that High Resolve ran away with a 250K stake over a solid 12 horse field in just 1:11.55 two races later suggests that the track didn't speed up rapidly after the 5th race was run at 3:12 eastern and before the 7th was run at 4:08.

UNLESS ... the track superintendent did work to make the track clearly faster after the 5th race .. and did work to make the track clearly slower after the 7th race. Crazy thought huh? About as crazy a thought as This One's For Phil and You Luckie Mann both being able to run in the 120's.

DS,

Obviously will have you expound on this today on ATR as part of the Dunkirk/3y.o. conversation, but is it possible they are STILL having timer and/or run-up distance issues at Gulfstream??

Only for Dutrow and Marty Wolfsons races.

Side note... Kelly Leak, who was third in the This Ones for Phil SunMill race, came back to win a grass mile impressively yesterday at SA.. 1:35.0.

Winning a turf race, when we are discussing a dirt race, reinforces what?

Byk is just trying to support overall theory that a lot of good horses ran that day(now why would a lot of good horses be racing at GP in the winter???) and that they are good on either coast and on both grass and dirt... Thanks DrugS you are really proving yourself to be quite the long term thinker.. And to think you could be doing this for a living soon.. Instead of Trips and Traps... We can call your show on DT as Dribs and Drabs... Sponsored by?

Absolutely nothing. As stated, was just a 'side note' that Kelly Leak ran back yesterday in a grass mile and ran well.

I figure the points of the post ( other than the usual DrugS scream " Look at me.....I'm smart! " ) are mainly that the two horses questioned by Beyer could only have run " better " than some thought and certainly not worse......and that, as usual, the times at Gulfstream are perplexing for whatever reasons. Is it the timer? Probably not, as those problems are usually confined to the turf, but let's not forget last year's FOY debacle. Is it the track super? Always possible I suppose. Is it runup related? Not sure how that should dramatically affect final time but I suppose if they are perversely changing those during the day it is entirely possible.

Whatever the case, it was clear to anyone paying attention that the horses to take out of Dunkirk's race were the pacesetters. I just hope DrugS bet Zegfield. I know I did.

Point of comparison for 7f races the days leading up to and after the Sunshine card..



1/17:

1:24.24 $25k S/ALW (Cuba 92 BSF)
1:24.57 $35k/N3L (Ode to Roy 88 BSF)


1/21:

1:25.53 S/ALW 3yo-F (East to Eden 76 BSF)


-------------------------------------------

2/24:

1:25.0 MSW (Dunkirk 78)
1:09.10 (6f) SM Dash (This One's for Phil 116)

--------------------------------------------


1/25:

1:23.97 $30k MDN CLM 3yo (Todd Got Even 85 BSF)


1/28:

1:24.63 $6250 CLM (Early Release 79 BSF)


1/30:

1:24.15 Forward Gal (Frolic's Dream 95 BSF)
1:23.69 Hutcheson (Capt. Candyman Can 101 BSF)

steve - are beyer's #'s wrong on some of these days?

Something a touch odd that I forgot to mention is that Beyer - or whoever does the GP figs - seemed to subtract one point from TOFP's race - and perhaps High Resolve as well. They also added a point to the earlier dirt races.

Meaning TOFP's 117 became a 116. While Dunkirk's 77 became a 78 and Indy's Sonata's 69 became a 70. etc.

The discrepancy between a 1:09.10 for 6fs and a 1:25.00 for 7fs is supposed to be 40 points. Not 38 points.

I just felt a little heartened this morning when I saw that two horses I overrated for a brief point last year -Georgie Boy and Spring House - had the #1 and #2 stories on the DRF's website for a pair of Grade 2 stakes wins over the weekend.

A speed centric methodology will sometimes lead to situations that are difficult to interpret. You can't possibly have answers for this as you just can't step outside your normal way of looking at things.

Dunkirk was a 'wipe-out' winner. This is the most dominating performance a horse can put it. Screw the Beyer or Sheet number! The wipe-out is superordinate to them.

Except for those cases where there is an 'unfair' advantage, bias, track/ condition or absolutely perfect trip, these horses invariably run back big. While I first identified this 'angle' over 2 years ago, I still 'fight' it, and watch horses that I otherwise can't figure win back. It sucks; it's almost counterintuitive in some cases.

Dunkirk 'wiped-out' the field sprinting and he did likewise routing. Deal with it, speed boy.

No.. but the track has been funky as can be. There have been windy days where the track is fast, but very cuppy, dry and hard to get over. There has been absolutely no rain for weeks on end. The inside was the worst place to be at times (deep and tiring), and everything wide was winning.. It's been a very confusing surface.

If the final times are accurate, the track and weather is consistant, and the races on the card are run at common distances on the dirt ... No .. the dirt figs are never going to be wrong any more than a single point or two.

If the final times aren't accurate, the track and weather is very inconsistant, and or the dirt races are run at oddball distances .. yes .. even the dirt figures can become nothing more than educated guesses.

The turf figures .. I personally don't bother even looking at them.

I admire your determination.

I don't admire yours.

To claim that I'm a speed handicapper is pretty laughable ... unless you're trying to say that final time is utterly meaningless... which is also pretty laughable.

steve can you get the track super on and ask him some questions about what drugs has brought up here?

maybe there are more answers

If the Super knows he would be smart not to share them with the planet.. Moreover he he admits any changes in the surfaces it makes him look like a fool or worse a crook

Trust me "speed boy" you are getting what you asked for with that intial post. think before you hit "submit reply"

Freddy has been paying him off.

Him and the track super handicap the next days card together each night. If they like a speed horse they get the inside path like a paved highway. if they like an outside closer - they make the inside paths into a plowed field.

They also try and change the speed of the track a lot each day to foul up all the figure makers.

Needless to say - they're cleaning up so far this meet!

Honestly? Those sharecroppers are lucky they can remember where they leave the keys to the tractors overnight. They're frequently not sure if there is water in the tanks of the wagons. They couldn't tell you where the sun sets. Their input would not be helpful..

the perfect DT post..You are learning

steve the big a seems to be all speed recently , if you owned a closer would you even bother running there right now?

Owning horses are for idiots who like pain

and i thought the giant oak thread went downhill.....

I haven't watched much AQU the last 7-10 days.. But the track had been very fair overall before that. If there's a bit of a bias toward speed right now, it will level out soon enough. The Inner Track Speed thing has really become something of an old wives' tale.

(But if speed has an advantage now, I'd run my closer, get thumped and come back in 3-4 weeks at a price hoping that Serling didn't point out the horse running against the bias on 'Trips and Traps'...) :D

Bob started it at such a high level it had no were to go but down..

DrugS has been riding on a Blue bus for too long

NYRA canceled Trips and Traps... The new show is "Horse House" featuring Dr Serling diagonosing degenerate horse players with no shot at winning..

Freddy

I was watching that rehab show and thought I saw you on it....but then they said it was Steven Adler from Guns N Roses. You remind me of him.

The idiot smoked dope...what a waste to smoke such a precious gift

Steve, while the track has been very fair overall, and I tip my hat off the track crew, you need look no further than yesterdays 5th race in which Indys Forum shot to the lead and never looked back, winning by 4 over City by Sea, another speed horse, who was another 4 lengths in front of the 3rd place finisher to know that the track was favoring speed. Seems like you had to be on or near the lead with a pretty ground saving trip to win the last few days. Hopefully, it will get back to playing fairly this week as I have personally really enjoyed this meet this far. That being said, I adjusted for the bias yesterday and did pretty well.

Yeah...I prefer shooting it up...then coming on here talking about Joel Rosario.

I know Dope and Joel is not the dope..You want to drive to Ocala (Classic Mile) and spy on my partner/trainer of Maxiom? I think I am getting the professional run around.. At least when DrugS screws me I know it is going to hurt

I was just near Ocala 2 weeks ago. I actually walked into some bar and they said "drinks are free". When I asked why they all started laughing and carrying on about some horse and a guy named Freddymo.

If they gave out an Oscar for being stupid I would have won 10 already...

Very interesting post by DrugS....but I have a question (perhaps a stupid one) regarding the Dunkirk part of it. I didn't use Dunkirk in his race on Thursday either, but is the 20 point jump really that shocking given that it was only the colt's second race? Is it possible that his much faster race the second time is the result of him actually being a much better horse at that point than he was on 1/24, rather than a track issue on that day?
Also, wouldn't we expect a colt with his pedigree to post faster numbers going two turns and 8.5f than he did going one turn and 7f? Add in the fact that his trainer has truly outstanding sprint/route and 1st time route numbers, and perhaps his major improvement is even more predictable.
Then, as you said, the other two runners from that race that have run back big (Santana Six and Ziegfeld) were both tremendously compromised by the pace that day. I know their jumps in Beyer #s were enormous, but if the pace meltdown due to a three-way battle was a big part of it, than is that good evidence of something being done to the track after their race?

Nah....you are just a good guy....a nice guy.


That's what DrugS told me to say anyways.......

IMO yes. 98 is the fastest Beyer any horse in this entire crop has run in there 2nd career start and going a distance beyond 6fs. And it flirts awful close with the magical 100 number ... which only six Derby starters have done in the last 6 years ... 3 of them subsequently winning the Derby, two finishing 2nd, and the other being Showing Up.


Even if you ignore Beyers 100% - he ran light years better than he did the last time.

Last time - his main competition in the race were involved in a vicous pace battle through wicked fractions and he rated off of them - and won in a race where the final 3/8ths were almost 40 seconds flat.

In start #2 he was caught out tremendously wide going into that first turn by Prado - who abandon the mount but still felt the need to race ride him. Inspite of that he beat the field with disdainful ease. Obviously he had a right to improve some 2nd time out ... but that was serious improvement.