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134th New Zealand Derby - Feb 28, 2009
I know it's still more than 3 weeks away, but it's starting to get pretty exciting now so why not start early?
NEW ZEALAND DERBY Ellerslie, Auckland, NZ G1 2400m (mile and a half) The Derby is New Zealand's richest (NZ$2.2 million - about US $1.0-1.2 million) and most prestigious race, and has been won by many of our greatest ever racehorses - including Desert Gold, Gloaming, Kindergarten, Mainbrace, Dalray, Sobig, Balmerino, Uncle Remus, Bonecrusher, Tidal Light, Castletown, The Phantom Chance, Zonda and Xcellent. We've had a couple of disappointing 3yo crops lately, but last year's was great - the winner C'est La Guerre and Nom du Jeu, Red Ruler, Fritzy Boy and Prince Kaapstad have all performed well at G1 level this season as older horses. This year's 3yo crop looks very good to me at this point as well. :) ORDER OF ENTRY, Feb 4 2009 (done by earnings) Tell A Tale Alagant Satin Le Baron Juice Coniston Bluebird (AUS) Skirmish Moveovr The Meista Spontaneous Court Ruler My Scotsgrey Easy Ryder Takeanotherchance Down The Road Izonit I Robot The Spaniard Sufficient All of those are safely in the field. The others still hoping to get in: Jungle Boots Heza Karma Kazi Fears Nothing Late Addition Gallant Carchelo Quinta De Lago Diamond Glitter Brunel Sun Ruler Jungle Boots is running in a non-stakes race this Saturday that he should win, which would put him into the 18. Alagant Satin and Juice are fillies, who I think will go to the Oaks instead of the Derby. They run in a G2 fillies race this Saturday. MY TOP 5 (at the moment, subject to change) Tell A Tale - Proved himself to be the best 3yo in the country earlier in the season with four stakes wins in a row, including the G1 2000 Guineas. Distance is the only concern. Le Baron - Undefeated beyond a mile, with two stakes wins on the Derby track. Jungle Boots - So much potential, but a bit of a nutcase. If he hasn't grown up by Derby day, he'll lose it in front of the crowd. Gallant - I really like this horse. He's running in a G2 next week, probably needs to win or be 2nd to get enough money to make the Derby field. I think he can. Easy Ryder - It was a 20-1 upset when he won one of the main prep races last weekend, but he did it very stylishly, and he's trained by 4-time Derby winner Roger James. Since university doesn't start again until 2 days after the Derby, I have nothing to do until then. So I'll do one post for each horse, at about one post per day (or just a bit faster to squeeze in the 28 in 24 days). EDIT: Oops, typo in the title. It's the 28th, obviously. |
TELL A TALE
Gelding Tale of the Cat - Cheeky Veronika Trainer: Mark Walker (the Todd Pletcher of NZ - dominant trainer for the last 5 years but no Derby wins yet!) Starts: 10 1st: 5 2nd: 1 3rd: 1 Earnings: $772,200 1st 2000 Guineas (G1) 1st Hawke's Bay Guineas (G2) 1st Avondale Guineas (G2) 1st Canterbury Stakes Tell A Tale (outside) during his amazing run from near last to win the 2000 Guineas Videos: 2000 Guineas: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2mS1qm-p6E Hawke's Bay Guineas: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_VeBacVVcI Avondale Guineas: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDkp6M5R320 Route to the Derby: His last start before the Derby will be this Saturday in the G1 International Stakes, against older horses. Champion jockey Michael Walker will ride. Derby Futures: 6-1 (3rd fav) PROS: - Amazing winning sequence in the spring - Performances so impressive that many consider him one of the best 3yos in the last decade CONS: - Lacked the same finish in his last two starts - 5th in G1 Zabeel Classic against older horses in his first start over a mile (possible excuse - wide trip, ridiculously slow pace (2:06 for the mile and a quarter), then 4th resuming over a mile. Is he tiring? - No horse has won the 2000 Guineas-Derby double since 1990. Very hard to do. - Tale of the Cat, mile and a half? |
Thanks for all the info, ed. I'm familiar with Tell a Tale (thanks to your past posts and replays)... Sufficient though - tell me about that one cause I seem to remember liking that one but am not quite awake. :D
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Ok, I'll do him next!
SUFFICIENT Colt Zabeel - Fleur De Chine Trainer: Bruce Wallace Starts: 7 1st: 2 2nd: 2 3rd: 0 Earnings: $60,591 1st Champagne Stakes  Sufficient making a winning start to his Derby campaign, at Ellerslie last month. Videos: Champagne Stakes: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=un45IOdESm0 Route to the Derby: Championship Stakes at Ellerslie, Feb 14. Derby Futures: 7-1 (4th fav) PROS: - 2 wins at Ellerslie, including Champagne Stakes over 1m as a 2yo - By Zabeel! He has sired 3 Derby winners - Zonda, Helene Vitality, St Reims CONS: - 2yo earnings don't count. He is 18th at the moment, but if he doesn't run well in the Championship Stakes others could push him out of the field. |
Thanks ed! You're the best!!!
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LE BARON
Gelding Zabeel - Dame Mapperley Trainer: Donna, Dean Logan & Chris Gibbs Starts: 7 1st: 3 2nd: 1 3rd: 2 Earnings: $134,015 1st Great Northern Guineas (G2) 1st Guineas Prelude Le Baron (outside - blue, black and green) surging to the lead from the back of the field in the Great Northern Guineas at Ellerslie on Boxing Day. Videos: Great Northern Guineas: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0E9250t9mQ Route to the Derby: Championship Stakes at Ellerslie, Feb 14. Derby Futures: 5-1 (fav) PROS: - Undefeated in 2 starts beyond a mile - Loads of stamina in the pedigree - 2 stakes wins at Ellerslie, which is of course where the Derby is CONS: - Only 8th, without excuses, in his resuming run on January 25th. It was only over a mile, but he should have done better than that. |
Oh my God, ed... this is so cool. Thanks for all the time you're putting into this. :)
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Updates:
- Jungle Boots won easily today, he's in the top 18 on earnings now - Sun Ruler only 3rd at Avondale yesterday - unlikely to make the field - Tell A Tale was heroic today, 2nd in a G1 against older horses and suffering an injury in the race. Possible stress fracture. :( Hope he's ok. Anyway, on to Easy Ryder. EASY RYDER Gelding Brilliance - Ledahead Starts: 4 1st: 2 2nd: 1 3rd: 0 Earnings: $52,935 1st Waikato Guineas (G3)  Winning the Waikato Guineas. Videos: Waikato Guineas - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPverN-DjFI Random Fact: He was sold for $500 as a yearling! Route to the Derby: Probably straight to the Derby without another race. Derby Futures: 9-1 (5th fav) PROS: - Strong win over 2000m in the Waikato Guineas. - Distance should be no problem CONS: - Never raced at Ellerslie, or at any clockwise track. - Stable rates Jungle Boots higher. |
JUNGLE BOOTS
Gelding Jungle Pocket - Special Jade Starts: 5 1st: 3 2nd: 1 3rd: 0 Earnings: $45,662 2nd Guineas Prelude Route to the Derby: No more starts before Derby Derby futures: 5-1 (equal fav) PROS: - Amazing turn of foot - Distance should be fine CONS: - Hasn't really faced top company yet - Does so much wrong - in his win yesterday he was looking at people in the stands all the way. He can't do that in the Derby and win. |
GALLANT
Gelding Volksraad - Limerick Starts: 3 1st: 2 2nd: 0 3rd: 0 Earnings: $15,625 Route to the Derby: Championship Stakes at Ellerslie, Feb 14 Derby futures: 9-1 (5th fav) PROS: - Looks super talented - Pedigree packed with stamina CONS: - Hasn't faced any really good horses yet - Needs to run well in the Championship Stakes to make the Derby field. |
Update on Tell A Tale: Only a minor muscle tweak, he's still going to the Derby. :)
Anyway... THE MEISTA Gelding Montjeu - Zablinka Starts: 9 1st: 3 2nd: 3 3rd: 1 Earnings: $64,900 2nd Waikato Guineas (G3) 3rd Wellington Stakes (G3) Route to the Derby: Championship Stakes at Ellerslie, Feb 14 Derby futures: 10-1 (7th fav) PROS: - Great turn of foot - Amazing stamina-filled pedigree (Montjeu, Zabeel mare) - Proven against top horses CONS: - Never raced clockwise before. |
COURT RULER
Gelding Viking Ruler - Free Court Starts: 9 1st: 2 2nd: 0 3rd: 3 Earnings: $67,350 Court Ruler in his 28-1 upset win against older horses in the G3 Trentham Stakes. Videos: Trentham Stakes - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-a0BFLtGa6U PROS: Stakes winner over Derby distance. CONS: - Questionable field. - Very poor form prior. |
MY SCOTSGREY
Gelding Golan - My Chameleon Starts: 5 1st: 1 2nd: 1 3rd: 1 Earnings: $60,220 PROS: - No problem with distance - Competed well in Victoria in the spring CONS: - The VRC Derby, in my opinion, takes a lot out of horses and you don't see much more of them in their 3yo seasons afterwards. Having to run another Derby just a few months later is a huge ask. |
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Another update, the Championship Stakes today: Down The Road (who will be the next horse profile thing, I'll do that soon) 1st, The Meista 2nd, Coniston Bluebird 3rd. Le Baron was 6th, My Scotsgrey 7th, Gallant 9th, Court Ruler 10th. |
DOWN THE ROAD
Gelding Danroad - Dixies Girl Starts: 8 1st: 3 2nd: 1 3rd: 1 Earnings: $107,928 1st Championship Stakes (G2) 2nd Great Northern Guineas (G2)  Down The Road winning the Championship Stakes today. Videos: Championship Stakes - http://www.ellerslie.co.nz/show.cfm?...4/Race%207.swf PROS: - Consistent - 3 starts at Ellerslie for a stakes win, a stakes 2nd and a 3rd. CONS: - Not sure if he has the acceleration of Jungle Boots, Tell A Tale, Le Baron, etc. |
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Ooh, ok. Hmm.
Jungle Boots Le Baron The Meista (2nd in the G2 at Ellerslie today, so showed he could run clockwise. That was my only doubt about him.) Easy Ryder Late Addition (Very nice win on the undercard today.) Sufficient would probably be in my 5 if he gets in to the field. He's 20th at the moment, so either needs to win another race or have 2 horses above him (there are 2 fillies there that will probably go to the Oaks instead, so it could happen). I really want to see Tell A Tale win, but I'm not sure he'll be back at full fitness in time. |
LATE ADDITION
Gelding Traditionally - Tralae Starts: 9 1st: 2 2nd: 2 3rd: 2 Earnings: $33,710 3rd Guineas Prelude 4th Great Northern Guineas (G2) PROS: - Consistent - No doubt about his stamina CONS: - Looked a bit one-paced in his 3rd and 4th against the really good 3yos. Did show some acceleration in his undercard win yesterday though. - 19th on the order of entry. |
Updated order of entry...
Tell A Tale Le Baron Juice Down The Road Coniston Bluebird The Meista Moveovr Spontaneous Court Ruler My Scotsgrey Easy Ryder Jungle Boots Izonit I Robot The Spaniard Late Addition Sufficient Heza Karma Kazi ----------- Fears Nothing Gallant Carchelo Diamond Glitter Brunel Sun Ruler |
IZONIT
Colt Volksraad - Label Basher Starts: 11 1st: 1 2nd: 1 3rd: 1 Earnings: $39,375 3rd Levin Classic (G1) PROS: - Has proven his ability against the best with a G1 placing - Has the breeding - full-brother to G1 winner Dezigna CONS: - Unplaced beyond a mile |
HEZA KARMA KARZI
Colt Choisir - Sutra Starts: 11 1st: 1 2nd: 0 3rd: 2 Earnings: $23,253 PROS: - The owners (Sutherland, Timpson & Walker) don't usually have only average horses. - John Sargent is a top trainer of 3yos - Ran 3rd in a stakes race over 2100m, so distance should be ok. CONS: - Maybe just a little bit behind in terms of class. |
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It might not change much from that. It doesn't sound like any of the horses outside the field are running this weekend, so they need withdrawals.
And there might be a couple - Juice could go to the Oaks instead, and Moveovr didn't look like a Derby horse AT ALL last Saturday when he was last in the Championship. More news, Down The Road is owned in Hong Kong now and will be going there soon after the Derby. The HK Derby will be his target next year. 10 days to go, let's look at the odds... Jungle Boots - 5.5 Le Baron - 6 Down The Road - 6 Coniston Bluebird - 7 My Scotsgrey - 7 Tell A Tale - 9 Easy Ryder - 13 Sufficient - 13 The Meista - 13 Gallant - 26 Late Addition - 26 The Spaniard - 26 Court Ruler - 31 Fears Nothing - 31 Heza Karma Karzi - 31 I Robot - 31 Izonit - 41 Juice - 61 Moveovr - 61 Spontaneous - 61 Sun Ruler - 81 Carchelo - 101 Diamond Glitter - 101 Brunel - 151 In my opinion... Too high - Tell A Tale, Easy Ryder, Sufficient, The Meista, Gallant, Late Addition, The Spaniard Too low - Coniston Bluebird, My Scotsgrey, Moveovr |
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THE SPANIARD
Gelding Storm Creek - Di Talento Starts: 7 1st: 2 2nd: 0 3rd: 1 Earnings: $30,400 PROS: - Can't deny the talent - Was finishing as strongly as anything in the Championship (5th) CONS: - A bit of uncertainty about the distance. |
BIG NEWS: Top-quality filly Puttanesca has been sold and new owner Y K Wong is paying the $70,000 late entry fee for the Derby. And the plan is still to go to the Oaks after that. Very tough, but they must think she can do it.
PUTTANESCA Filly Bertolini - Tesoro Starts: 7 1st: 2 2nd: 1 3rd: 2 Earnings: $121,312 1st Royal Stakes (G2) 2nd Desert Gold Stakes (G2) 3rd Sir Tristram Fillies Classic (G2) 3rd Eulogy Stakes (G3) Puttanesca winning the Royal Stakes at Ellerslie. Videos: Royal Stakes - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSp68suaUPk PROS: Two races beyond a mile for a G2 win and G2 placing. CONS: This is a last-minute decision. Can she be at her peak for the Derby next week, when she was originally meant to be peaking for the Oaks two weeks later? |
I like The Spaniard
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Yeah, I think 25-1 is way too high for him.
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Tell A Tale's obviously near his peak. Today he did a gallop between races with Red Ruler (G2 winner, placed in G1 AJC Derby in Sydney), and beat him by 3 lengths.
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Hey how are the odds on Sufficient right now? |
12-1.
Some people are worried because in the last 2 weeks he's had to scratch from races because of wet tracks. The trainer says he'll be fit on Derby day though. |
The weather forecast for Saturday is really bad. :( It's going to be fine all week, then rain comes along late on Friday night. Just like last year.
I hope it's wrong. The long-range forecasts often are. |
The field:
1 11542 Tell A Tale (AUS) 1 56.0 Michael Walker Mark Walker, Matamata 2 31186 Le Baron 5 56.0 James McDonald (a) Donna, Dean Logan & Chris Gibbs, Ruakaka 3 15231 Down The Road 18 56.0 Michael Coleman Ken Kelso & Thomas Russell, Matamata 4 11353 Coniston Bluebird (AUS) 19 56.0 Scott Seamer Bede Murray, Kembla Grange 5 21322 The Meista 7 56.0 Chris Johnson Peter & Dawn Williams, Riccarton Park 6 87993 Spontaneous 15 56.0 Robert Priscott, Te Awamutu 7 83510 Court Ruler 10 56.0 John Wheeler, New Plymouth 8 27X37 My Scotsgrey 9 56.0 Noel Harris Shaune Ritchie, Cambridge 9 8211 Easy Ryder 12 56.0 Steven Arnold Roger James & Paul Mirabelli, Cambridge 10 16211 Jungle Boots 14 56.0 Vinnie Colgan Roger James & Paul Mirabelli, Cambridge 11 03570 Izonit 11 56.0 Troy Harris Vanessa & Wayne Hillis, Matamata 12 31444 I Robot 20 56.0 Craig Grylls (a) Mike & Paul Moroney, Matamata 13 06175 The Spaniard 2 56.0 Robert Hannam Adrian Bull, Hunterville 14 73431 Late Addition 3 56.0 Trudy Thornton Graeme & Mark Sanders, Te Awamutu 15 59X12 Sufficient 6 56.0 Leith Innes Bruce Wallace, Takanini 16 07535 Heza Karma Karzi (AUS) 21 56.0 Jason Waddell John Sargent, Matamata 17 62605 Juice 17 54.5 Chad Ormsby (a) John Wheeler, New Plymouth 18 38123 Puttanesca 8 54.5 Sam Spratt Vanessa & Wayne Hillis, Matamata 19 34138 Fears Nothing 16 56.0 David Haworth, Foxton 20 02910 Carchelo 13 56.0 Danica Guy, Matamata 21 3160 Diamond Glitter (AUS) 4 56.0 Yves Seguin, Cambridge The top 18 will start. 17 of those 18 have either won or run 2nd or 3rd in a stakes race. Very strong field. |
Odds:
Tell A Tale - 10 Le Baron - 9 Down The Road - 7.50 Coniston Bluebird - 9 The Meista - 12 Spontaneous - 41 Court Ruler - 41 My Scotsgrey - 9 Easy Ryder - 7 Jungle Boots - 6.50 Izonit - 51 I Robot - 41 The Spaniard - 21 Late Addition - 21 Sufficient - 14 Heza Karma Karzi - 41 Juice - 51 Puttanesca - 41 Fears Nothing - 51 Carchelo - 101 Diamond Glitter - 101 |
An old friend will lead out the field for the Derby...
http://www.thoroughbrednews.co.nz/nz....aspx?id=39244 :D |
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Tell the rain to go away. |
Nice blog by trainer Paul Moroney about his horse I Robot: http://www.nzracing.co.nz/JockeysAnd...icle.aspx/3135
"It’s all up to our tough little colt, the little dude with steely eyes and hopefully the mettle to win tomorrow’s Derby." :) |
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Derby Day now on Sunday? Stupid rain... |
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