1/31: Gulfstream; Magna 5
 

It's a pretty humorous day of wagering when you hit a P6 conso and P4 and lose $75! Can't complain of course that the obvious horses won all but one of the last 6 of the day at Hallandale, as you can only put yourself in position to capitalize on the potentially large opportunities... Fun Saturday in store at Gulfstream for Holy Bull-Donn Day and Week 2 of Magna 5! Hope you did well Friday...


GULFSTREAM


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N$Y, 3yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Well Positioned 5-2 6th
Best Value: #1 Sincero 6-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Take the Points 3-1 WON
Super Add: #6 Masala 4-1 2nd


2nd: CLM, 4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

#10 Exchanging Kisses is likely SCR..

Most Likely: #7 Bang Bang Bang 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 High Ceiling 10-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Optimer 7-2 3rd
Super Add: (SCR sub) #9 Heavyweight 12-1 9th


3rd: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Just a Coincidence 3-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Bobby B. Goode 6-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Presto Change O 4-1 DNF-Lost rider
Super Add: #9 Mighty Score 6-1 2nd


4th: CLM/N3L, F&M-4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Yippity Yap 5-1 5th
Next Best: #12 Choosing 5-2 WON
Best Value: #11 Millicat 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Tiger With a T 4-1 2nd


5th: CLM, 4+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Variant 4-1 10th
Best Value: #2 Next Adventure 6-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Shone 5-2 8th
Super Add: #7 Raymundo 5-1 3rd


6th: MSW, 3yo, 5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Echo in Eternity 6-1 WON
Most Likely: #8 Ace of Spades 4-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Fullofsong 8-1 8th
Super Add: #7 Braciole 12-1 9th


7th: Holy Bull, 3yo, 9f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Danger to Society 5-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Stately Character 20-1 5th
Next Best: #10 West Side Bernie 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 El Crespo 12-1 9th


8th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Dubinsky 7-2 4th
Best Value: #7 Boyhood Dream 10-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Il Postino 12-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Big Flirt 6-1 8th


9th: Donn H. (Gr. I), 4+, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Arson Squad 3-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Anak Nakal 10-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Albertus Maximus 4-1 WON
Super Add: #4 Bullsbay 8-1 10th


10th: MSW, F&M-4+, 8.5f (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Witty Woman 7-2 WON
Next Best: #8 Watch Smartly 5-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Sealed Bid 8-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Tenacious 4-1 10th


@$50 P4 Play:

7: 2-5-7-8-10-11
8: 10
9: 2-3-4-7-8-10
10: 4-6-8

6x1x6x3 = 108 x .50 = $54



MAGNA 5


A) LRL 9: 24th Dancing Count, 3yo, 6f

Mr. Fantasy a SCR to run in NY Sunday..

Most Likely: #6 Russell Road 9-2 WON
Next Best: #1 St. John's Gospel 6-1
Exotic Use: #3 Great Love 8-1


B) SA 4: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m-T

Most Likely: #8 Spring Party 4-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Dextera 8-1
Next Best: #6 Sweet Thoughts 2-1
Exotics Use: #9 Showboater 10-1
Super Add: #3 Stormy Slew 12-1


C) GP 9: Donn H. (Gr. I), 4+, 9f

Most Likely: #7 Arson Squad 3-1
Best Value: #3 Anak Nakal 10-1
Next Best: #2 Albertus Maximus 4-1 WON
Super Add: #4 Bullsbay 8-1


D.) GG 4: OC/N1X, 4+, 1m

Most Likely: #1 Warren's Page 3-1
Best Value: #8 Trick of the North 10-1
Next Best: #5 Old Ed 6-1 WON
Super Add: #3 Esporte Dos Reis 6-1


E.) SA 5: MSW, 3yo, 6f

Most Likely: #2 Keep Thinking 5-1
Best Value: #8 Gold Schleiger 8-1
Next Best: #6 Valkyrie Missle 7-2
Exotics Use: #5 Street Car 5-1
Super Add: #4 Pauper's Prize 5-1


<$300/<$200/<$100 Plays:

A: 6 (1) [3]
B: 3-4-6-8-9-10
C: 2-3-4-7
D: 1-3-5-8
E: 2

1x6x4x4x1 = $96
(2)x6x4x4x1 = $192
[3]x6x4x4x1 = $288


Good luck!
Steve

Steve, What do you like about the Zito horse in the 3rd ? He seems like one who has had his chances already, and this race looks ripe for a first time starter IMO.

Hoss,

He's as viable as any of the price alternatives. I'll likely use him too. To me, the horse that gets jobbed here (again) is West Side Bernie. While I'm not a Breen fan, I think this is a real racehorse. Expect him to jump up along the Derby Trail and snare a nice one.

Could be.. I'm not crazy about the race overall. Zito has begun to fire on all cylinders this week and 'Coincidence' at Churchill sure looked like a horse that wants three-quarters and little more. 2 of his 3 NY sprints win this unless someone jumps up. And on that topic, note the eye-popping 33.3 move from the Breen runner (Mighty Score) last week. 33.3? How often do you see 33.3 workouts? I'm not sure i've EVER seen one. Romans' Maswary might be something, but that's an alarming gap between the last start and the one work. Was he at a private training center? I hope so...

magna 5
 

6
3468
7
8
23468
$20

A few I find interesting today at Gulf:

2nd: #6 Closing Number. Ran well in last year's Hallandale Beach Stakes. Hasn't done much since, his most recent was a sprint against a pretty contentious field. Possible reach, but 20-1 ML.

4th: Agree with Steve in including #3 Intense Elvira. Last dirt sprint was lifetime top. Previous turf effort was better than it appeared, in my opinion.

10th: #8 Watch Smartly off long layoff, obviously something went wrong, but it that has been righted, chased some good ones 300 some days ago.

This race would certainly have been a lot more interesting if he and Beethoven weren't so far out there.
West Side Bernie definitely works like a monster. 1/41, 1/29, 1/44, and 1/52 in his last four works? That's nuts.

GP: Pick-3 (Races 7-9)

2 / 2,3,4,7,10 / 4,7,10

Magna5

3-6
4-6-11
2-4-7-10
1-5-6
2-4

Steve, what's your thought on Great Hunter in the Donn? Castellano takes off of On Board Again to ride him, and I always take notice when Doug O'Neill ships across country. I know the horse hasn't shown anything for a while, but is it possible that he's crying out for real dirt and that last on 12/20 was meant as a prep for this? I don't see him winning, but I think he could pick up a piece if all the top ones falter.

Also, I keep hearing Helen Pitts say how much Einstein doesn't like the track at GP.

Going for two in a row for the Magna five with the following (changed after scratches):

1-3-6

2-4-6-8

2-7

1-8

2-3-6-8-11-12

$288

Good luck to all playing.

Paul

Einstein biggest problem today is that he drew poorly for the race. He's a solid bet against this time. (I'm using Arson Squad and ALbertus Maximus)

I really like the Frankel piece in the Nicanor race. . .

The post is an obvious problem, but I would be hesitant to toss him completely in any horizontal wagers against this mediocre field. His workout pattern matches almost exactly what he did before his two nice dirt starts last year at CD. Before those two starts he followed a series of slow drills over the CD strip with a bullet 5f work 5-6 days before the race. He has done the exact same thing at Gulfstream this month coming off a layoff (slow 4f work, followed by a slow 5f work, followed by a very sharp 5f work) that he did coming off a layoff in the Clark. There is every reason to think he should be ready to go.

The post position might be too much, or perhaps he really won't like the surface, but when there is every reason to believe that the most talented horse in the field is at the top of his game....I think it makes him too dangerous to toss.

Early Changes: Saturday, January 31

Track: Fast Turf: Firm Rail: 84 Feet

Race 1: #5 Bar Shoes Behind

Race 2: Scratch #1 #10 #13
Jockey Change #5 Robby Albarado

Race 3: Scratch #10 #14

Race 4: Scratch #3
Corrected Claiming Price & Weight #8
$35,000 - 122 pounds

Race 6: Scratch #1A (poe) #13 #14 #15
#7 - Blinkers On

Race 7: Scratch #9
Overweights #1 +1 #2 +2 #3 +2

Race 8: Scratch #13

Race 9: Overweights #5 +1 #6 +4

Race 10: Scratch #3 #9 #15 #16
Jockey Change #10 Elvis Trujillo

I've got some bad news for both of you.....so do I.

Oh, I agree he's the most talented in the field. It's just a chance I'm willing to take in this spot. ... I'll probably chicken out and include him and Bullsbay in exotics though anyway! .. But I'll put in at least one pick 4 that singles Arson Squad (and Danger to Society in the 7th)

I have bad news for the 3 of you... I like him too.scratched

Oh yeah, the AE scratched.
I meant the other Frankel in that race (Andiron).

longshot turf spot
 

#7 BRACIOLE (12-1) in race 6 at GP intrigues me. "Late" equipment change to "blinkers on" clinched it. Castellano aboard. 2d time Lasix (underrated angle). Gate to wire shot.

I still have a hard time accepting that Einstein is better on dirt than turf, also Albertus Maximus is racing switching to dirt from his high profile win on Pro-Ride. This a tough race for me to feel good about anyone other than Arson Squad for "Tricky Dicky". Really I am curious how the career plodder Ap Arrow will run today on the trainer change to 31% Mcpeek who is sending out runners this meet. I'm not sure he's in the class of Wolfson or Dutrow but it has atleast made me think a little. He might hit the board.

Edit: On Board Again looks interesting as a pace threat.

uhh ya me too

If any trainer gets AP Arrow to run fast he should receive an immediate one year suspension for obvious cheating.

*chuckling* If it were Wolfson he would.

There's very little pace in the race, Einstein stands to get the best trip scenario and he did beat Commentator, who would be the odds on favorite in this if he was in this.

Hey all!

Stopped by office on way to Gulfstream to update SCR/CHG adjustments, etc...

MAGNA 5 CHG's from California will be here if there are any:
http://www.magna5.com/scratches.aspx

PP's for sequence here:
http://www.xpressbet.com/ed/downloads/m5pp0131.pdf

Big group of DTers already assembled last night with Lori, Cajun, Scott and Philscki having started the weekend festivities with a bang last night... ;)

Good luck to all playing today!

Magna Pick 5 and other selections
 

Magna Pick 5:

Leg A: 3,6
Leg B: 4,6,8,10
Leg C: 2,4,7,10
Leg D: 1,8
Leg E: 2,6

$1 ticket 2x4x4x2x2 = $128

Gulfstream Race 8: Win Place #10
DD 10/2,4,7,10

Gulfstream Race 9: DD 2,4,7,10/6,8

Santa Anita Race 4: DD 4,6,8,10/2,6

Good luck everyone,

PSH

JR did well last time with this Wolfson horse in the 1st, won by 14 lengths

Cinnamon Road not drawing much attention yet

Magna 5 Ticket.......
 

3-6
4-8
4-7
1-8
2-4-5-6-7-10-12
$112

Good Luck!

Ironically on this Superbowl weekend, I like Take The Points in the first at GP.

yeah, after looking the PPs over again, I think I'd rather use Bullsbay over Albertus Maximus... I really think Arson Squad is the horse to beat here.

Magna 5
 

Taking another shot at a tough, tough sequence this week.

Ticket A:

Leg a) 1,3
Leg b) ALL
Leg c) 7
Leg d) 1,8
leg e) 2,4

$80

Ticket B:
Leg a) 1,3,6
Leg b) 6,8
Leg c) 2,7
Leg d) 1,10
Leg e) 4,5,6

$72

Good luck everyone.

late pick 4

5/1/10

5/4/11/3

7/2/6

12/4/8/7

144.oo its a winner me thinks

Boy just getting back into it off the fall layoff...and it's a Kenny McPeek world huh? Jeez. Nice grass debut for # 6 Echo in Eternity there in the 6th at GP.

Great call hossy.