Most Powerful Handicapping Angles
 

I'm refreshing the beginners handicapping course I teach at the local community college. Last year we spent one night talking about various handicapping angles, both good and bad. I wanted to toss the question out to DTers so I can maybe toss a few more angles in here or there to the course and keep it somewhat new to the regular attendees.

So if you wouldn't mind, what would you consider to be the most powerful (both positive and negative) angles in handicapping?

For what it's worth, here's what I would put:

1. Distance cut-back
2. Second-time starter off even debut
3. O2X (From the Sheet guys)

I like your first two. ( I don't use the sheets, so can't comment on the 3rd.)

I also like:

2 sprints to route, especially if the route is the 3rd off a layoff
Positive trainer switch being an obvious one as well.
Along the same lines of your 2nd start off an even debut, I also like the 2nd start being a turf route off an even dirt sprint debut.


and last but not least, anything Kurt Ziadie sents out at Tampa that David Cardoso ISN'T riding.:wf

Travis, I assume you are relating to them that the most positive handicapping thing they can do lies in watching replays?

One session is all about trip handicapping, which really could warrant an entire course in itself. We usually do it towards the end of the course so we can apply the pace discussion among other things.

I remember I spent my sophomore year in college doing nothing but trip handicapping. I used to schedule my classes to optimize my time spent on Belmont Park. I had classes all day on Tues/Thurs, and can specifically remember getting caught handicapping the Friday card during "Communication Development in Children" on a Thursday evening.

They have college courses in handicapping....:eek:...Boy, I missed the boat on that one.

Not to get too off topic but the course has been a huge success so far. After the first class (which sold-out with 30 students... it's an adult community education course) a couple which took the course claimed a horse the following week and won I think four or five of their next six races with the horse. I'm sure they didn't pick out the claim based upon "Speed Figures 101" but it was the fact it got them into the game. They haven't missed a course yet!

See, when I was a kid, my Dad would just put his foot in my ass and tell me to go outside and play. Now that is teaching communication development in children!!:D

The cutback/stretchout is my favorite.(ex. Today @ Gulfstream R10-More Than Willing...chalk but still) I also like the class drop/hike.(class hike off the positive trainer switch is a good one) As Kev said, positive trainer switch is pretty much a given. One red flag for me in the claiming races, is never bet/key a horse in top position that's not in for full claiming price. I would also like to see steady works for the horse Im going to bet. Follow these rules and you can be a loser at the windows just like me.

A topic that I have made my goal to learn as much as possible about this year -

The difference in tracks. A classic current example is Calder versus Gulfstream. The deep Calder racing surface versus Gulfstream. In addition, the difference between Aqueducts Inner and Main, the long stretch at Churchill etc and how it affects the way you cap a past performance in relation to the track it is being run at.

I like looking for horses in sprints that have bullets on their worktabs and several races under their belt, but have not been able to get the lead in any of their races. Sometimes just a better break, or a slight jock upgrade can get theses types to wire the field at great prices.

I don't think the specific track matters as much as the biases that go along with them. But obviously those could change daily if not hourly due to weather and other factors.

The positive trainer change is huge, good call.

I'm thinking more along the lines of the difference in track shape and surface. Classic example in play now with all the Calder shippers at Gulfstream. Calder has a deep sandy surface compared to Gulfstreams. The layout of the track, how wide are the turns, how long is the frontstretch etc.. When you tie this in to post positions, etc I feel it plays a role.

Where in the world is their a handicapping close at a community college? That has to be one of the coolest college credit EVAH...

Possible online course becuase I will join.

the obvious for me is trainer % you just have some trainers that are just good at placing their horses.... trainer/jock is an added plus..... look at owner stats too.... when I do not have time to cap and there is a contest or something.... i will just go with these and usually finish top third of the contest...

my favorite NON-EDUCATED angle is using the the next widest horse when a single horse scratches.... Amazingly about 60% ITM (lets say I cap
Friday .... pick my horses.... one I like scratches... sub the next higher post....of course only when in my top 6)

I love turf and 1 mile plus races.... pace plays into it more.... if I see 3 horses that may go for the lead.... I play a trifecta box 4 horses...
play the best stamina horse and 3 closers... positive roi on these races...

next time I am over in Bossier I will let you know... live in Jackson but spent about 4 years in 'Port back in the ardoin/snyder/and occasionally Day era...... just easier to go to NO.... put out a tip sheet when I was over though.... sold lumber to most of the farms and got some great insight to the game....

This sounds like a really cool course. More specifically, to your point #2, I'm usually impressed with a horse who may break poorly first time out but makes up some ground while finishing midpack. i don't want them just passing tired ones, but legitimately closing and showing some late interest once they get their head straight.

It might play a role but I think it is very very minor. When it comes to capping there is so much information out there already, that adding this to the process may just be overkill. Also when I think of track layouts and the turns, I think that's the type of information that jockeys have to be more aware of than handicappers.

I like a horse who has demonstrated need-the-lead traits in the past and has been caught up in speed duels and faded at a given distance (say, for example, 6f) in recent starts, and is then stretched out a furlong in its next start.
I think the average schmo thinks that if the horse faded on the lead going 6f, it will surely fade going 7f. In reality, however, a need-the-lead type is often able to get the lead much more easily at the longer distance (depending of course, on the makeup of that particular race), which can often be the difference.

Seen that one work many times...

1)The best angle ive ever come across is a 2nd time on the turf with good breeding if the horse showed any interest at all 1st time on it. Would prefer to be route/route but sometimes a turf spring to route works. I have never cashed a bunch of tickets but that one has led me to some good payouts

2)i have NO numbers to really back it up is a smart strike colt or filly 1st time on turf. I have no numbers as to what they hit just seems like they do good 1st time out.

3)Unusual Heat fillies/mares on the grass. ONce again i have no real numbers but im sure someone on here can give specifics.

Im definitley a novice but those have led to the best tickets that ive ever cashed.

2 routes back to a sprint---Double Bubble Angle
2nd time routing when they were competetive but faded through the lane.
wide through a slow pace.

thats all for now, MORE TO COME

Biggest drop in racing MSW to Md Claimers

With you there...

Look for a horse that is returning to its favorite surface.

Also, look for a horse that is popular at the claim box. I mean...if a horse gets claimed 3 times in a row...there must be something about that horse right?

2nd itis -

a horse that once passed can't finish the deal

needs the lead nothing else

That duo took down 50% of the Pick 4 today.

Not sure they apply anymore but the early double is chalk (let's the majorty get some cash for a hot dog or beer) and the last race is the 'jocks race' (meaning the barn or connections that need one, will be given a chance and it's bombs away) This was early 70's logic on how to play the first 2 and last race. And real cappers believed and followed it. How far handicapping has come.

Well it seems like the reason they schedule the hardest race last is because they want to make the pick 6 difficult.

It's like how...if there's a graded stakes race with an even money lock, they'll move it up earlier in the card out of the pick 6. So the earlier races are always easier on average.

in the old days it would be an IL Bred Mdn 5K claimers coming in from farms no one ever heard of. Trainers of favorites would already be in Sylvia's (corner bar) watching horses thru the fence seemingly knowing there wasn't much chance of a pic. This was pre pic 6 time and bookies would pay track prices so you know being Chicago in the day there was something to it. Later we had the twin tri but that was after the fire and Arlington was run a bit tighter IMO.

I like when a 1st out winner skips the next condition. All be it with the right trainer but moves like that show they have great reviews on the horse.

I like when Frankel has anything running on the turf that is foreign bred and/or campaigned.

Like #4 in the upcoming stake at Santa Anita.

andys w list on trips n traps

The Goldberg angle. Anything that Hank picks....stay away. :wf

From now on I shall be called - "average schmo". :D

off topic but my college degree includes credits for "geography of wine" (included wine tasting) for a science credit, "history of sex" for a social science credit, and a course that compared classic american film with the actual historical events they were based on for another social science credit.

as it turned out learning about the institution of pederasty in ancient greece wasn't the titillation i expected and the wine class was way tougher than i thought.

I pay a lot of attention to front wraps....I will never bet a horse first time running with front wraps....also when a horse races with front wraps off for the first time in a series of races I like to take a long look at the horse...

Is he Donn H. bound?

That's a good angle though, very strong. With the new surfaces floating around, it helps bury some of those stronger, preferred surfaces a little more. Good stuff!

Horses third time out with great grass breeding that have been going sprints on the dirt and then moved to the grass.

Horses for courses

Back class of long layoffs that have shown little prior to layoff.(with good trainer)

Don't forget to be on the lookout for omens and keep a pad and pencil on the nightstand to write down your dreams for later analysis. Remember, it is just as important to read your tea leaves as it is to read your racing form. When I handicap I always make sure I surround myself with various lucky charms and on big event days (as well as the second Sunday following any new moon), I make sure the sacrifice of a live chicken or goat takes place.

If a horse shows up in the program with the same name or has similar markings as your dead cat, do not dismiss this as "coincidence" or mere superstition. Certain celestial phenomena and planetary alignments often times provide big payouts to those in tune with the heavens. A horse with the same name as your deceased pet may be the cosmos' way of telling you something....especially if it happened to be a fast cat.

Okay, the superstition angle was B.S.

Don't know if it falls into the "angle" catagory, or if it's just something to watch out for, but second-timers coming off disappointing debuts in which they broke slowly or held an inside post along the rail are worth a second look. The dirt being kicked in their face for the first time and/or the rail messing with their psyches can make their first trip a trying one. I read this or heard it on the show (can't remember which) and it makes a lot of sense.

Otherwise, I'd really stress the MSW to Maiden Claiming that someone mentioned before as a general handicapping rule or angle.