This One's for Phil goes nuts...
 

in a first start for Dutrow. Weird. I'm looking forward to see how much he improved in the Beyer department.

Last June as a 2 yr old he ran a huge! number (4 TG) and thus I think there was no magic just a better trainer 25% v. 12% getting the colt to perform like he was supposed to. Only other horses in the race that achieved that were Jutisu Jax and You Luckie Mann.

Funny sidebar to 'Phil'... Horse was bought 3 months ago by Paul Pompa and Gulfstream still had the silks and ownership wrong.

He doesn't run in IHEA silks does he? Can't remember Backseat Rhythm's colors but the guy definately has the midas touch.

No. White jacket, green circle with red "P". Very familiar on NY circuit. You'll recognize it the next time you see it.

pompa doesn't = ieah. i know they wanted to buy in on one of his three year olds, and he turned them down.

Well Positioned is that sharp 2nd time start winner that drowned an OK looking group. Spoke with Pompa yesterday and he said the horse is doing great.

that's the one....couldn't think of his name! look forward to seeing him run again.

Slight move up by Dutrow: 117 Beyer !!!

:eek:

I'm shocked.

On a more serious note, where the heck does Dutrow/IEAH find these horses? Kipling? Lucky Lionel? Untuttable???!?!?

Again, it's Paul Pompa, NOT IEAH. He gave the horse to Dutrow to train. And this gelding was no secret to the horse-buying crowd. He ran a Thoro-Graph 4 in the maiden-breaker July 27 last year that caught a lot of people's attention and later won the Seacliff going a mile. He also has a half brother that was a stakes winner (the Seacliff in fact!). Kathleen O'Connell kept trying to stretch him out, and it's pretty clear he's at his best sprinting.

The sheet figures are the key for the guys that buy these horses whether it's a Benny the Bull by Lucky Lionel and Kip Deville by Kipling in the case of IEAH or Student Council by Kingmambo in the case of Thoro-Graph's Jerry Brown for Ro Parra's Millenium Farms. They see the sharp figures or patterns on obscure horses or mediocre form types and try to acquire these under-appreciated assets.

I'm not a particularly big Dutrow fan, but before accusing him of 'miracle work', recognize that he had 2 months with 'Phil' and he was returning him to what is likely his best aptitude. Say what you want about Dutrow, but acknowledge that a horse going from O'Connell to him is certain to improve. And also, I'll admit I'm not a BSF guru, but that Beyer looks too high. You Luckie Mann had run a previous best 107 Beyer winning the Birdonawire two back, and he likely gets a 113. Kelly Leak's previous best was an 84 and Ju Jitsu Jax an 86, and they are looking at a 101-103 or so.

Is it likely that all the top finishers moved that far up? The boy's race number must have been made off the girl's race an hour later since those figures are close in line with High Resolve and Dubai Majesty's figure patterns and their race was run more than a full second slower: 1:10.2 versus 1:09.0.

Will be interesting to see what This One's for Phil does this spring. If that fig is accurate, it may knock him out for awhile. It took a long time for him to recover from his big fig win at 2.

It's interesting that you think the number is too high even though you actually don't know the point differentials towards the other horses. Plus, they played this number straight, as the track gave evidence that there was no split variant from the beginning of the day until the end. Also, why would it be surprising to see Kelly Leak improve a synthetic number on the dirt? This makes perfect sense if the horse handled the surface....which apparently he did.

I guess in this case admitting that Dutrow performed a miracle with this horse would also force you to admit that your beloved Marty Wolfson also performed a miracle.....and we can't have that.

Hey, I made a good score in that race, as I know what great trainers these guys are.

As suggested, I was speculating on the differentials... That makes sense on Kelly Leek on the surface switch... but aren't those really significant jump ups on all the top finishers? How often do you get that many horses all moving forward to that extent in one race? And even if you subscribe to the theory that Dutrow, Wolfson, Machowsky and Lake are ALL taking an edge, it doesn't seem possible that they all just happen to be jamming them in this one event?

I realize this one is Pompa; I was just pointing out that This One's for Phil is another one in a reasonbly long string of Dutrow and/or IEAH runners by incredibly random sires.

I don't know anything about Machowsky, but his horse may not have really improved as I pointed out, but Dutrow, Wolfson and Lake all have pristine records and I have never seen one instance of any of them improving a horse at all.....much less substantially overnight.

You're right.....the fig is wrong.

Steve as the voice racing can we get Dutrow on to explain what he was able to do to the horse to run so fast.. Maybe the horse had a simple problem like a bad cold and just needed some antiboitics and some good ole fashion TLC... Bring Richard on and let him share his good training procedures with us all.. Then maybe Mr Wolfson can come on followed by Scotty Lake... We can name the segment "House"

Just so we can be clear, here are the Beyers earned by the top 4 in the race, including Saturday, most recent first (Brown-Dirt, Green-Turf, Blue-Synthetic):

This One's for Phil: 117, 76, 75, 66, 79, 71, 81, 33, 43
You Lucky Mann: 112, 93, 107, 79, 79, 84
Kelly Leak: 98,84, 83, 57, 82, 73
Ju Jitsu Jax: 97, 86, 60, 67

Here are the figures if you build in the adjustment Beyer recommends for maturity, about 1.5 points per month:

This One's for Phil: 117, 80, 80, 72, 86, 79, 90, 45, 54
You Lucky Mann: 112, 95, 112, 86, 87, 93
Kelly Leak: 98,86, 86, 64, 90, 84
Ju Jitsu Jax: 97, 90, 66, 75

Then, there is the turf and synthetics come back slower, so we can adjust a few of those to the same scale as dirt:

This One's for Phil: 117, 80, 80, 72, 86, 79, 90, 45, 54
You Lucky Mann: 112, 95, 112, 86, 87, 93
Kelly Leak: 98,88, 88, 59, 93, 85
Ju Jitsu Jax: 97, 90, 66, 75

When adjusting for those things, only one horse really "jumped" in that race, the winner. The difference from the previous top:

This One's for Phil: +27
You Lucky Mann: 0
Kelly Leak: +5
Ju Jitsu Jax: +7

Keep in mind, under normal circumstances, the winner was the least likely to improve with 8 starts under his built. The others make a lot more sense considering fewer races and/or surface switches.

Thx CJ. That's a great analysis and big help to understanding the performances.

Ju Jitsu Jax was a 96...

very nice cj . it's more difficult to visualize a form cycle with the bsf . but your adjustments bring this race into a more understandable event.

Does this mean you are in full accord that Dutrow's miraclous "move up" isn't exactly explictable with sheet interpetation? Horse made a bunch of starts and had a decent race or two and now low and behold is running better G1 beyers... maybe the horse just likes South Beach or maybe it was the South Beach diet?

You have to be so cynical? Maybe Rickie is just THAT good. ;)

I would assume DT has contacted him to do some "THAT" special training...Why not deal with the very very best? Don't answer that one Steve its loaded

i hear he has a good dentist...

77

Hmmm...Haskin vs Serling and Beyer? I know which opinion I would give the most weight.

OK, lets be objective and see how the card looked. First, 2 of the first 5 were on turf, so we'll ignore those.

Race 1: Radio Relay wins and gets an 81 Beyer. In five previous starts, the horse never bettered 60. The runner up had run high 70s a few times, so it probably makes sense RR improved a lot.

Race 3: Indy's Sonata, Run All Day, and Won Token battle it to the wire and get a 69 Beyer. Two were first time starters, while Run All Day had three starts on surfaces other than dirt, had run mid 60s. It can be argued that if anything, turf and synthetic figures are a little inflated when the figures are that low. The race is a crapshoot, but it is tough to argue for a much higher figure.

Race 5: 1ster Dunkirk romps and gets a 77. He beats another 1ster and Spanish Fortune, a second time starter that Beyered 53 first out. The figure given means despite getting dusted, he improved to a 61.

If you split the variant there, you have to increase the figures of the three races mentioned, or decrease the later three dirt races. While the 7th is a very fast race, if the track had indeed sped up, it is really tough to explain the times and figures you would have to give the last two races.

Beyer slams 'supertrainers' and game's culture/direction..
 

Blistering column by Andy Beyer in DRF about work of Dutrow vis a vis the performance of 'Phil'. Indicts other 'supertrainers' as well.. Important read.

Latest supertrainer feat raises suspicion
http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do...9&subs=0&arc=0

Thoroughbred racing has become less a test of horses than it is a competition among trainers. The most successful have been dubbed "supertrainers" because they achieve results almost without precedent. They compile winning percentages that dwarf the records of horsemen enshrined in the Hall of Fame. They acquire horses and transform them in ways that history's greatest trainers never dreamed of. Accordingly, bettors disregard the normal logic of handicapping when they evaluate horses saddled by Rick Dutrow in New York, Bruce Levine or Jason Servis in New Jersey, Marty Wolfson in south Florida, Kirk Ziadie and Jamie Ness at Tampa Bay Downs, Jeff Mullins in California and countless other miracle workers.

He has written this basic article a few other times. I'm glad he writes them, and I hope he continues to do so until things change.

There's not a problem then. If everyone knows/assumes these guys are cheating, and adjusts their game accordingly, I don't see why this seems to be at top of the list for handicappers to bitch about.

Why, I wonder, do we continually focus on this issue, rather than others that actual DO have an affect on one's ROI? Like:

1) after the bell betting
2) lack of accurate data (this is the 21st century, right?)
3) availability of free (live) video
4) INCOMPETENT stewards
5) ridiculous TAXATION

I can easily account for a juicer: I just use his horse to cover my ass when I have an opinion in the race. I can't really compensate for the others, however. The powers that be, who, most of us think are idiots or incompetent, must get a kick out of horseplayers' obsessive focus on this lesser issue at the expense of the more important ones.

I agree to an extent, but how do you explain to a potential new bettor that some people cheat, but it is OK, just account for it when you handicap? Guys that have been around a while learn to adapt, but new people looking for a new hobby will probably find something else. It also makes for smaller fields which is not good for bettors either.

Further, we need owners and trainers to compete and make the game what it can be. Clowns like Dutrow drive potential owners/horsemen to other interests.

I think it is very unfair to include Marty Wolfson on that list.

Paul

This is debatable. Small fields are not good for bettors looking to make big scores. You know, the once in a while hit; the pick 4 horses in a race and see what happens crowd.

IMO, they're just what the doctor ordered for someone who can consistently pick winners and has strong (and singular) opinions. I've recently discovered GG. Hard to find many races with more than 6 going to the post there. YET, the track is a ****in goldmine.

Is that a serious question? You really lump Wolfson with the Dutrow's and Ness' s of the world? The man is a great trainer. He doesn't ever have 45% winners at a meet like the above and that says alot.

Paul

dont forget Ikigai, who is also now a world beater that he took over, as far as This ones for Phil, Kathleen O connell has been training for about 30 years and is a very adequate horsewomen. there probably nothing she doesnt know about horses and their training. but now her and the likes of her are either idiots or the rest is as obvious as we all know it is, and even though we may all be bothered by it i guess for now as some have said just use it in your handicapping and hope for the best