Thorograph's Promo: Race of the Week-Spectacular Bid
 

I get absolutely nothing for saying this so please don't think I am turning a buck on this one as one confused Grinch thought last year but Thorograph makes all of their products absolutely free, races run Dec 26th til Jan 1, for downloading until the New Year with everything from full sheets to analysis and race shapes which have early speed info you might find useful at Aqueduct on the Inner.

Of course it has it's small perplexing issues to deal with too......like what the heck do they see in Collooney Country in the 4th tomorrow but if your willing to set up an account at no cost there are some great free handicapping products for the next week or so...

Thanks for the heads up Doc.

i really wanna give these sheets a try, and i downloaded saturdays card, but i have no idea what the hell im looking at

the race shapes charts are kinda cool though


-bt-

BT,

Ask whatever questions you want and the TG players here can help you walk through it. I host the Thoro-Graph Seminars at Saratoga on the weekends and Scav has helped do statistical research work for Jerry Brown. A number of others here a very familiar with the figures and patterns as well.

Spend a few minutes reading through the basic explanation page first though to get a feel for what is on the sheets. From there, you are looking to "read the pattern" of each horse in a race as a means t project what kind of effort to expect today.

Is the horse ready to establish a new "top"?

Is the horse likely to regress ("bounce" or "off" or "X") because his last effort was a strenuous one?

Has a horse coming off a new top he had enough time since that effort to expect a similar performance ("pair").

There is a lot to it, and it takes time to understand the patterns, but the figures are a tremendous tool which I use daily and believe in implicitly.

We're meeting people for a Dinner shortly, but will check back later to see if there is anything you came up with. I would encourage everyone interested to register at Thoro-Graph and use the free product all week.

http://www.thorograph.com/

We can use the thread as a Q and A for anyone learning the product...

Click on the introduction page at the TG website for all the information you will need as to what everything means.

Go through some of the Race of the Week pages to see how these things are interpreted.

I've been using them for a few years, and someday's I too have no idea what I'm looking at:)

The key to using the TG's, for myself, is using them in company with the pp's.
I see alot of 10k claimers running really good tg figs, alot of times the same as what a nice 50k claimer would be running.
However, if the 2 horses ran in the same race, we all know who would win.

Basically, It comes down to the most important thing in capping a race; CLASS.
I like seeing the patterns of each horse in the race. Which tend to jump out much more for me when using the Thoro-quick layout.
I also like the trainer stats more than the ones in the DRF.

The biggest advantage of TG's is searching for the 'hidden horse'. The runner that is just as fast on the TG's, but doesn't look good enough on the PP's.
I mainly buy the TG when Im stuck on a race of evenly matched horses, that you know if you can solve the puzzle you will be rewarded.

Call me up bro. I've toyed with these for a few years now and have at least a working knowledge of their figs and a some understanding of what they look for.

This really is a great promo if you take the time to handicap then review the results whether you bet or not.

Thanks for the link, TG virgin so I'll start with some dumb questions.

What do the dots, squares, triangles and diamonds mean?

What does this mean --, before a number (ie --16)?

a - before a number designates a turf race not sure I've ever seen a -- or dot square triangle form yes but not sheets. Finger Lakes numbers are inflated (lower than they should be) only IMO.

the '-' sign before the number means it was a turf race.

Triangle next to track name= trainer change
four diamond next to number means synethic track
Squares = insufficient data to make number (if in number area)
Diamond next to track name = med change (Lasix or bute)
Dot = I think means equipment change

The symbol sheet isn't working on their site, but I use it all the time because I never remember.

Thanks, found the symbols in the race of the week section.

Docs 1st post says TG likes Collooney County in Aq 4th tomorrow. I'm looking at CC and don't see anything that tells me TG likes him. What am I missing?

here is how I would look at the race when incorporating sheets

Brother Gold: Circled back to his 'top' (14) off four days rest, pair of the 14 or slight regression most likely
Tony the Terio: 14's routing (see this by the 'bolding' of the number), nothing positive about this one
Collooney County: Has the 14.5 two back but the last two were dreadful
Hidden Price: Has a couple siblings to run around the '10' number (note the Breeding info on the full sheet version) but also had some slow siblings, might be usuable based on that fact alone, in a bad race.
Big Megilla: No idea who Sydney Dutrow is but obviously someone related to Dicky. See the horse as slow unless Sydney has better stuff then Dicky
Saratogian: Slow
Doctor Problum: Slow
Wanna Winna: Has 14's to go back to, Hernandez's number route to sprint are decent
Roadhouse Rock: Another with siblings that were in the '10' area, which would destroy this field, usuable on that fact alone
Living Out a Dream: Has the best number within the race, a pair wins, and a slight regression still wins

This isn't a very powerful sheet race in terms of information.

Give me a couple minutes and I will write up the Sir Beaugamt at Santa Anita, which has some real powerful sheet plays in there, IMO

I like the visual that the calender gives you of the spacing of a horses races throughout his career.

Thanks Scav, big help!

Santa Anita Race 7
 

Liberian Fighter: Got back to his top off the minor layoff and ran a new top in his recent allowance race.
Sky Cape: In looking at his patterns, he seems to run in two race sequences, with his best race always first, and his regression 2nd, usuable based on that fact, and play against in his next start if soon after this start
Dakota Phone: His turf numbers don't compete, but his recent numbers show good form and good health as he has a nice developing pattern.
Fifteen Love: First start in the US he paired his top, usually a sign of a horse about to move forward, perfect spacing, a must include
Medjool: Back numbers maybe and Canani is no fool, don't see it here though
Icemancometh: A touch slow on the numbers but has a developing pattern, trainer change something to consider, especially with it being a recent claim and popped right into a stakes race
Young Joe: His Del Mar race three back was real good, but he really reacted off that performance with two bad performances, not this start but maybe the next if he shows his way back to the '2'
Ten Meropa: Horse has obvious issues with the extreme gaps within races, don't see it against this competition
El Gato Malo: Something I consider very strong is the fact that a horse pairs his top off a very long layoff, to me, that shows progression and health. This one has the surface question mark. This one also has a "!" notation after the numbers, which means that TG feels the effort/number is better then it shows, I call them "Sneaky good efforts", don't see why he wouldn't at least run an 'off' effort thus putting him right there.
Ghetto: This horse is exactly why TG's can be very powerful. He would be my key in this race as if you toss his last effort, especially considering all his synethics have been off efforts (He obviously doesn't like it) he had a great improving line, getting to the '-5'. Post postion is obviously against him, but this horse could be there at the end at a huge number.
Pistol Pete Afleet: Seems to be hanging around the "6" area, which won't be good enough, might be a decent 4 year old though
Gio Ponti: Interesting read, if he runs the 2 that he has been running, they are running for 2nd, but that 4.75 he ran last time could be a sign of regression. I would be playing him to pair the 4.75 or even run in the 5.5 range, and then another layoff

In Pick 3's I would be using Ghetto, El Gato Malo, Icemancometh, and Fifteen Love
Exactas I would be playing Ghetto and Fifteen Love over El Gato Malo, Icemancometh, Gio Ponti, Ghetto, Fifteen Love, Sky Cape, Liberian Freighter

Thanks, starting to get a feel for this which is a giant improvement for me. Good stuff.

Totally wiped out, long day. Was up all night last night putting a dollhouse together. This Santa stuff is harder than I thought. Hope everyone had as good a day as me. Nothing more fun than kids at Christmas.

Tom,

In the world of handicapping using Thoro-Graph, Collooney County sticks out as an include in the 4th because he is sporting very close to the notorious "0-2-X" pattern. 0-2-X is a pattern read originally noted by TG's Julian Weinberg 20 years ago that suggests that a horse that runs a big isolated top (like a "0"), regularly regresses to a slight off performance in their next start (like a "2"), before falling apart in the third start of the cycle (an "X", perhaps a a number like a "12" or "15").

These horses then typically will come back to the original performance level with some rest. Because the horse in question, like a Collooney County, looks like he's a bum going in the wrong direction, these runners are frequently outrageously good bets and are the scores that I watch Jerry Brown, Alan Benewitz, Weinbrg and Bill Spillane regularly cash at Saratoga at the Carolina Barbecue each summer.

Collooney County ran a 14.5 in the 10/2 Belmont sprint off the layoff (our "0"), followed by the 17.25 on 11/6 in the Belmont turf route (our "2"), followed by the 24.5 in the 11/23 Aqueduct sprint (our "X"). If worried about fitness, he had a slow 5f work 12/6, just 13 days after his last race, and then a fast half mile blow 10 days later. Looks OK... And on top of everything else, he's the only runner here dropping from MSW company to a low maiden claiming price... only the game's most potent dropdown.

The 14.5 makes Collooney County as fast as anyone in the race except Living Out a Dream (top of 11.75 last out). If he snaps back in classic 0-2-X fashion returning to around the 14, he can hit the board and juice the exotics. If the other, more obvious players faulter, he has a modest shot to win with that level of effort, (and an even better shot to win with a new 'top').

He's not a certainty to win or even hit the board, but as a potential $20-$30 mutuel, he is an ideal and significant representation of the kind of horse/situation/pattern that is a wagering opportunity presented when using TG.

G/L today!

The only thing I would add about Dakota Phone is that his "slow" back turf #'s were very much in line with what he was running on synth at the time. He has since moved forward on the synth, and this will be his first try back on the turf since improving. If he had been running 3's on the main when he ran his 8 on turf, I would be more likely to discount him, but he wasn't.

G,

You've got this 100% correct. Totally agree that he's the right horse at the right price in the "Beaugamt".

Those that love to bash Hollendorfer as a 'move up' guy should note the patience he had with him too... "Just" a $67,000 purchase that took to February of his soph year to get to the gate, Hollendorfer never panicked early on when it was taking 7 tries to break his maiden. He never dropped him into Mdn Clm company. Short on synth, not his thing. Long on synth, better, but still not his best. Then long on grass and paydirt. And now he's a complete horse that looks like he still has upside.

If any of you TG people want to pick a "race of the day", this week and explain what you see I would be down with that. Thanks for everyone's help!

Sheets are a very lazy handicapping method and frankly shouldnt even be considered handicapping. Sheets are a tool that one could use to help the process.Once they become the process they are exposed as the lazy man's cliff notes. Read the book then after you have read it the cheat sheets make more sense!

FWIW - Sydney Dutrow, aka Chip, is Ricky's younger brother. He works for Rick.

Already? He most recently had been working for Tony and then late last month he decided to go on his own (again). He started out with two horses that Frankel gave him (I think Frankel owned them as well), and had a few more on the way.

Eric

My info was second, or third hand. You may have more up-to-date info than I do.....

Steve, isn't R Clear Victory a perfect example of this designated 0-2-x pattern?? (8th race at AQ Sunday)
However, TG stats only give him a 3% chance to run a top.:confused: Thanks!!

V/J,

Absolutely.. R Clear Victory ran the 0.50, the 2.5 and the 7.0. Has had nearly 6 weeks and should return to near his top. But look at Mor Chances for the example of the 0-2-X followed by the return to the top... New top of 3 (in slop); regression to 5.25; bounces to 10.5 (complicated slightly by race being on grass where he's not as strong); returns to the top of 3 on 6 weeks rest at bonus mutuel of 7-1.

Back to R Clear Victory though... Recognize that the 'Thoro-Pattern' is the universe of horses in the database that have been in a similar circumstance as R Clear Victory:

570 starts in Nov-Jan where a horse 5yo or older was coming into a race off a similar pattern: Top-Off-X.

3% (New Top); 16% (Pair Up); 28% (Off Effort); 54% (X's)

Yes, only 3% got a new top.. But think about this.. would you expect most 5yo's to be consistantly running new tops the way you might expect a healthy, upswinging 3yo to run one? At the same time, note Victory Gallop's Sire Index for 5+. It's the best figure average for him. Overall? 11.75. But 5+? 9.75! Victory Gallop progeny are still improving as older horses, and R Clear Victory's entire campaign as a 5yo supports that.

This is a very sound horse. Note how even when he reacts to efforts (the 15 in 12/07, the 8.5 in 2/08, the 6.75 in 7/08) he snaps right back to pair up. And note how tight the progression line is for him. The 3% new top makes a lot of sense here (late season universe of Nov.-Jan. for older horses) given how R Clear Victory has already set 3 new tops during this season:

4.50/4.75 in Jan/Feb
2.5 in April
0.5 in August

It would appear that R Clear Victory is more likely in this particular case to project to the more reasonable 2.5 range than all the way back to the top. After all, while he's only 3% likely to run better than the 0.5 top, he's 44% likely to Pair Up or go Off, which is a range of about 0.5-4.

Asmussen would do well to give him a nice winter break of 60-75 days after this race as he's had a great year and could repeat it in '09 with a deserved rest. Very interesting horse to look at and a fascinating race too... Have to look at the rest, but at a glance, and without the PP's or ML, one horse that may be a price play in there is Almighty Silver.

Thanks Steve, I also like Almighty Silver at a price. I've just always liked RCV because he is such a honest horse, and this looks like a time to catch him at a price. Great betting race!

R Clear Victory looked good winning at $23.80. Maybe there is something in this gobbledegook after all.

Yes he did, both Assmu winners @ AQ helped my bankroll:$: for the start of Gulfstream.
That was a difficult post position to overcome for RCV, (but helped his price) and Stewy Elliott did a good job working out a trip.

my immediate impression of the race shapes are that brisnet covers that in their pp when they denote the horse's running style . E, EP, P, S. i have always liked the quik sheets to view the horse's race pattern . i focus on that . ideally, comparing the quik sheets to the brisnet pp is the best way to go for those big days . those t-graphs are pricey.

Thoro-Graph Race of the Week is the Spectacular Bid:
http://www.thorograph.com/ROTW/20090...px0103r_09.pdf

This gives you a written analysis weekly of a stakes race with full page style TG sheet of each horse and the abbreviated style. The comments, usually done by TG's Alan Benewitz, will help novices understand the concept of pattern recognition.

We can discuss the ROTW here weekly if people are interested...

Now I understand why you're up at 4am. Just kidding, very interesting stuff and a lot of it.

What does a square on the running line mean instead of a number? Could not find that info?

Thanks Steve.

Spyder

Spydee,

The box/square means not enough info is available to make a figure.. Frequently seen with 2yo's or from days where there were significant changes in the track. Rather than publish a potentially inaccurate fig, TG will wait until some horses run back from a race to get a better read on what the number should be from the inconclusive race.

One thing I really like about Thorograph is I can see when a horse might be set up to run a new top big race, and with 2yo's and newly turned 3yo's that's much more important than with older horses. Silent Valor is NOT that horse at 2-1 and worth a bet against. His consistent 6-7's look like a horse that just isn't that fast and has limited upside. It's going to take better than a 5 or 6 that he figures to run to win this race.

You Luckie Mann has certainly run races that would win here but it concerns me that he regressed significantly going 7f with no apparent excuse versus his big figs at 5.5f. Again, not a runner I'd take a short price on, but a must use in multirace bets.

I like Jazzandthemagician at 6-1 or higher, which I expect him to be. His paired 9's aren't fast enough obviously, but the sprint-route pair then back to sprint with young horses is a pattern I've noticed often produces a top result. Plus, given the time off and some nice works he could jump up at a price. To be clear, I'm not big on the patterns in general.

hard to believe that Rampillions first race still doesnt have a number

I use Bris PPs also, but I don't trust their assignment of styles with E, etc because they never seem to re-assess. So often if a horse goes up with with the leaders on a slow pace (especially if in its debut), it can get an E assignment, even if it runs from mid-pack in its next 15 races. And some horses who sit behing the pace in sprints (P) can become a front-runner around two turns. After I analyse the horses individually, I use the pace figures to try to find out who will run where during the race. See if there is lone speed or if a 'ton o' speed' melt-down is likely.