11/29: AQU (Cigar Day); CD (Meet Finale)
 

Bit of a wince-inducing day Friday as I left Einstein (my second choice) off the P4 play and watched as he clobbered Commentator who was without any possible excuse. Quad came back over $520. At Hollywood, I went 4 of 6 in the Carryover try, and as I said on ATR, knew I had made a mistake omitting Hyperbaric from the Citation play. Leaving him out cost the $635 consolation.

So despite having a number of winners on the day, came away with very little of bankroll consequence... Two more great days of action to find those heretofore elusive scores. Hope you did well. Churchill Stars of Tomorrow meet-ender today and top notch Cigar Mile Day card at the Big A.


AQUEDUCT


PRE-SCRATCHES


4th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Dubinsky 3-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Diplomatic Code 12-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Tippity Tap 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Copper Cascade 12-1 5th


5th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Winloc's Saint Ray 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Fortissi More 5-2 WON
Best Value: #4 Maill Heroics 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Tee With the Tiger 10-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (10-8) Paid $9.80
$1 Trifecta (10-8-2) Paid $45.75


6th: 87th Demoiselle (Gr. II), 2yo-F, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 SKY DIVA 3-5 3rd
Best Value: #4 Springside 6-1 WON
Next Best: #2 Ain't Love Grand 7-2 4th


7th: 95th Remsen (Gr. II), 2yo, 9f (P3 , DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 OLD FASHIONED 2-1 WON
Best Value: #5 Hold Me Back 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Idol Maker 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 American Dance 8-1 3rd


8th: 20th Hill 'n' Dale Cigar Mile (Gr. I), 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

No disrespect to Eric Donovan, but the ML for this Gr. I is difficult to fathom.. I'll offer a 1-2-3-4 instead of the usual monikers because the oddsboard will not come close to relecting the ML at post time..

1. #4 Bribon 6-1 3rd
2. #6 Monterey Jazz 6-1 7th
3. #3 Harlem Rocker 15-1 2nd-DQ'd
4. #9 Kodiak Kowboy 7-2 5th


9th: ALW/N1X, 2+, 9f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #3 My Man Lars 3-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Stormy Mirage 10-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Raddical Sabbatical 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Forever My Friend 8-1 WON


<$200 P6 Play:

4: 7-8-10
5: 2-4-8-10-11
6: 5
7: 6
8: 4-6
9: 1-3-5

3x5x1x1x2x3 = 90 x $2 = $180


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-5
7: 6
8: 2-3-4-5-6-9
9: 1-3-5

2x1x6x3 = 36 x $2 = $72



CHURCHILL DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N1X, 2yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Passion Du Coeur 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #1 A.P. Elegance 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Oculuna 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Emma Darling 2-1 WON

$1 Exacta 3-1 $23.10
$1 Trifecta 3-1-7 $34.90
$1 Superfecta 3-1-7-5 $214.80


2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

McPeek's #11 a deserving fave and fast, but trip an issue from marooned outpost..

Most Likely: #11 Satin Thunder 8-5 WON
Best Value: #2 The Best Day Ever 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Abigail's Gold 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #13 SCR


3rd: ALW/N1X, 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Back Away Tales 7-2 6th
Best Value: #1 General Quarters 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Myroslaw 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Silver City 4-1 WON


4th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Nice Ring 6-1 4th
Next Best: #12 Prospective Love 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Better Than Gold 15-1 12th
Exotics Use: #6 Justin 7-2 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

1: 1-7
2: 2-8-11
3: 1-2-3-5-6-8
4: 2-12

2x3x6x1 = $36


5th: Grand Canyon H., 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Jack Spratt 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Rockin' Joe 4-1 4th
Best Value: #8 South Fork Lodge 8-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Presents for Berti 5-1 7th


6th: ALW/N1X, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Pretty Prolific 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #11 She's Extreme 15-1 WON
Next Best: #7 Best Lass 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Selective 7-2 3rd

$1 Exacta 11-3 $61.60
$1 Trifecta 11-3-5 $188.40


7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Heart Ashley 7-5 WON
Next Best: #14 SCR
Best Value: #8 Missy Lou 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Rumble Creek 20-1 9th


8th: ALW/N1X, 2yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 No Inflation 3-1 11th
Best Value: #6 Melo 10-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Phosphorescent 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Quiet Thanks 12-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-4
6: 3-5-7-11
7: 4
8: 2-4-5-6-7-9-10-11

2x4x1x8 = $64


9th: Golden Rod (Gr. I), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Rachel Alexandra 2-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Sara Louise 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #7 War Echo 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Dream Empress 9-5 4th

$1 Exacta (4-1) Paid $10.10
$1 Trifecta (4-1-7) Paid $38.60
$1 Superfecta (4-1-7-3) Paid $62.20


10th: Caressing H., 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Striking Dancer 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Sugar Mom 7-2 9th
Best Value: #4 Seminole Lass 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Abbott Hall 4-1 3rd


11th: Kentucky Jockey Club (Gr. II), 2yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Capt. Candyman Can 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #6 Zion 10-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Beethoven 7-2 WON
Exotics Use: #10 Giant Oak 20-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (3-10) Paid $70.90
$1 Trifecta (3-10-8) Paid $245.30
$1 Superfecta (3-10-8-6) Paid $1,314.90



12th: MSW, 2yo, 9f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Tribal Bead 7-2 7th
Best Value: #11 Masked Man 15-1 10th
Next Best: #9 Barishnikov 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Son of Destiny 15-1 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

9: 1-3-4-7
10: 2-7
11: 8
12: 2-4-6-8-9-10-11-12

4x2x1x8 = $64


Good luck!
Steve

Hey Steve do you know if #13 Dominic's Desire was euth'd yesterday.....or for that matter anybody else who went down was seriously injured?

In my once a year ability to make a sizable wager on a LS who is on top turning for home when they either break down or in one of the more bizzare events a horse I had at KE about 2 years back chose to jump the hedges to the infield rather than win a race.....can't remember the jocks name but he didn't seem to enjoy the unique path to finish

Haven't heard. It was bad. I jumped in on him too when he drew in. Will find out...

http://www.courier-journal.com/artic...sxwmPBLHB3U%3D

Dominics Desire had to put down. Very Sad.

aqueduct pick 4

6th #4 springside
#5 sky diva

7th #2 idol maker
#old fashioned

8th #2 arson squad
#4 bribon
#7 storm play

9th #6 expansion
#8 north country
:zz: :zz:

Aqueduct Stakes pick 3

5
6
2/3/6/9

Steve, I left Einstein off the tickets also much to my regret, maybe we can take turns kicking each other. Sometimes I can be so STUPID. :mad:

15/1 ML? Harlem Rocker is an interesting horse today in the Cigar, I'm a little tepid whenever I select a Pletcher horse these days, however to me it's hard to forget his one run in the spring here when he ran his best race in his career. You have to think he is a better horse now that he is more seasoned. His last was better than what it looked in the slop, where front runners seemed to dominate he was wide and moved early. If Coa can time it better and work out a trip he can certainly pull the upset here.

Any idea why Sheldon Russel is here for one mount today (Jacobson in 1st)?

Good luck today

A connection told me Katskill Bay is training well and has put up some fast numbers . 2nd race today .

He's going to be staying.. Moving tack, along with Rosie Napravnick, to AQU for the inner meet..

Thanks. I will take a shot on him in 1st...

AQUEDUCT CHANGES: http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/AQU-changes.asp

Picks for AQ and a couple for CD .... I feeling good today watchout!!!!

Race 1... 7,9,11,3,13
Race 2 1,6,4,3,8
RAce 3 2,1,10,5,8
Race 4 10,5,8,7,1
Race 5 8,6,2,7,3
Race 6 5,3,4,2,6
Race 7 7,6,8,5,2
Race 8 3,4,6,1,2
Race 9 3,8,2,1,6

CD 9 1,7,4,6,3
CD 11 4,3,2,7,10

How did Silver City get away at 15-2?

I heard JB already hit it.

Churchill 9th
 

Absolutely love Rachel Alexandra. Dream Empress is a turf horse, Sara Louise just ran huge and probably will regress and Rachel Alexandra had some traffic trouble last time as the jock tried to get cute and their was no hole. Sara Louise got the run on her but Rachel's jock stopped trying last time because he couldn't win.

9: 4
10: 7
11: 3,8
12: All

9: 4
10: 7
11: 3,8

9: 4
10: 7
11: 10

Win 4
Exacta 4/1,6,7
Tri 4/1,6,7/all

Thanks Steve.....
 

For the P3, hope you bring the P4 home!:)

My uncle-in-law just bought half of Rachel Alexandra a few weeks ago. Just got a call from Churchill and he couldnt be any happier. She looked good.

A great buy, she is a monster and should only continue to get better.

Thx buddy.. G/L here...

Wow......
 

I was thinking I hope the red hot Benzel's horse doesn't beat you Steve, he runs second to Stoklosa's Forever My Friend, sorry bout your P4. Great job today though.:)

Thanks for the super
 

Thanks to Steve I had the dime super. Was down to $2 in my account. Now I live to play another day:)

4:22:55 PM Race 11 CHURCHILL $0.10 Superfecta 3,8,10/ 3,8,10/ 2,3,6,8-10/ 1-6,8-10 $14.40 Paid $131.49

Andy had a fantastic day today.......credit where it is due. If the NYRA site is accurate I think he had the first 8 winners in his choices. Enfuego lately is putting it mildly...

I should have added if Coa could keep HR straight to timing it right, that call really bothered me, due to the fact it has happened to me before on the N.Y circuit and I didn't get the benefit of a simular call. :zz: It's the lack of consistency of these calls that drives a horseplayer to the brink.

Castellano gets away with **** like this all the time; and he does it intentionally. And, lately, the broad has been emulating him out in CALI.

With that said, the call was the correct one. Let's hope that, from this point forward, the NYRA stewards are in agreement that taking a horse's PATH is grounds for DQ.

Anything I say will sound like sour grapes, so I will just abstain myself from any further comments regarding the stewards. It is fustrating from a personal standpoint of believing Harlem Rocker would be an eventual grade 1 winner from very early on in my posts since I joined Derbytrail and getting a chance where he is finally in the right conditions/race/odds and then winning on the track, yet there is nothing to show for it, a very fustrating day indeed.

That is all I want, just show me some consistency win/lose.

I waited for Seaspeak since last year, at this time, when Douglas had him ducking in and out during the stretch run due to excessive whipping, till I had a lock exacta with Cowboy Cal at KEE. Believe me, I've felt your pain. Not like we're BTW and get put up TWICE in a week.:rolleyes:

The DQ today made me pennies. I used both horses in the 7-8 double, Tale of Ekati for a little more, and boxed Tale of Ekati and Harlem Rocker in the exacta.

We'll jump back on the horse tommorow, pardon the pun. There's always tommorow. :rolleyes:

At the risk of being accused of Red-Boarding I would like to thank Andy and Steve for their assistance in helping me have my Best day ever at the track.

Andy I was at the "BIG A" today so I actually got to hear your analysis and see you selections (Oh my God) you had a good day. Thanks to you I had the confidence to go with Tale of Ekati in the Cigar Mile. I had almost talked myself off of him until I saw you had selected him in your picks. So once again thank you for putting me back on Tale of Ekati after I talked myself off of him.

I would also like to thank Steve for running all of those contests and constantly talking about ticket structring in the multi-race wagers. Also for his confirmation of my selection of Forever my Friend in the 9th race.

Thanks again to both of your for sharing your thoughts, opinions and insights into this game. It is truly appreciated my many but expecially me today and even on days when I don't fare sore well.

Thanks.

Glad you had a great day. I'm sorry I never made it upstairs today. You know how it is.....seeing Chris once is really all a relatively sane person can take.

mclem, HH, Charlie..

Thanks so much for the nods. As always, and echoing Andy, it's a great pleasure to see others have respect and appreciation for our opinions and successfully utilize them incorporated into their play... Was really a wonderful day of racing (save for the sad incidents) and I hope everyone enjoyed it and did well...

Am I wrong in thinking that Bribon was best in the Cigar today?
He completely got knocked sideways and off stride when W Boy broke down..

I have to watch it again. I am trying to work less than 14 hours a day....at least for today.

great job again by the steve and andy duo.. congrats..