11/30 (HOL): Matriarch/Hollywood Derby (Gr. I's)
 

7th (3:35) Matriarch S. (G1)

1 Mile (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $500,000

1 Black Mamba (NZ) Smith M E 123 L
2 Magical Fantasy Solis A 120 L
3 Precious Kitten Bejarano R 123 L
4 Criminologist Prado E S 123 L
5 Rosinka (IRE) Rose J 123 L
6 I Can See Baze T C 123 L
7 Visit (GB) Gomez G K 120
8 Roshani Velazquez J R 123
9 Cocoa Beach (CHI) Dominguez R 123 L



9th (4:35) Hollywood Derby (G1)

1 1/4 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $500,000

1 Dixie Chatter Baze T C 122 L
2 Court Vision Dominguez R A 122 L
3 Cowboy Cal Velazquez J R 122 L
4 Albahri (FR) Leparoux J R 122
5 Madeo Smith M E 122 L
6 Midships Bejarano R 122
7 Gio Ponti Gomez G K 122 L
8 Sailor's Cap Garcia Alan 122 L
9 Muny Flores D R 122 L

Matriarch PP's
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...her_132390.pdf

Hollywood Derby PP's
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...her_132391.pdf

Cocoa Beach to win (easily)... hoping I Can See will get up there too. :)

I have never seen a race so hard to handicap as the Hollywood Derby.

The Cigar Mile was much harder. . .

Easily? Not with Precious Kitten in there... ;)

The Hollywood Derby is a very interesting race, this is an excellent betting opportunity, with what should be some quality horses at good value. The Matriarch another fantastic race should be more predictable it really comes down to 2 horses with perhaps a third.

Dixie Chatter in the Derby and I Can See in the Matriarch!!!! Dixie is working gangbusters and should run very well!

Midships / Madeo in the Derby (... and welcome back Railroad in R5. Would love to see Fast and Furious do well there too but not playing it).

Good luck everyone.

We'll see. :p

I'll take Rosinka, who should get a beautiful trip, and Gio Ponti.

In the Matriarch I like Criminologist.

In the Hollywood Derby I like Madeo.

The Bet:

$50 win on Criminologist

$80 win on Madeo

Horse looks very interesting to me. Will include in P3

PPF..

I am definitely including I Can See in the exotics. Backed off thinking she could take the top spot, but agree she's worth a look at boxcars.

G/L..

Yeah she is in very tough but she is a very useful mare. I have been watching her for a year or more, and she hasnt disgraced herself at all.

Well that was pretty impressive run by Cocoa Beach, Precious Kitten was 1/5 when they put up 25 and 49.

Hollywood Derby super race, lots of value. To me this is a race where Cowboy Cal has to be used, Sailors Cap 12:1 ML? is another that should be respected, tough trip/pace dynamics in his last. Of the Cali based runners, Madeo looks the most promising. The unknown is Albahri, his win was only in listed company and for me the names he beat are not household names. But Biancone is very sneaky...

1. Cowboy Cal
2. Sailor's Cap
3. Albahri

I'll let Court Vision and Gio beat me today.

She's one of the few animals lately that can run on anything and connections that aren't afraid to. She should have a huge year next year with that kind of versatility.

my advice to her is to avoid Zenyatta on any racing surface...but yea she seems pretty special.

Madeo-Dixie Chatter exacta box.

Nice win by Court Vision!!!!! I am stupid for not betting him even though he is one of my favorites. Closed on a very very slow pace and won easily

You jumped off court vision too soon. He is rounding into a pretty nice horse.

There are about 4 trips out of that race to play back, winner was nice but cowboy cal is a roach not to win with that setup.

LOL!! I know he is but I got greedy.

I was worried about his dist limitations but he ran well enough, really that was typical Ramon, right about now wish Kent D would have never gotten off of him.

Absolutely. The race was set up for either Cowboy Cal, Muny or Dixie Chatter.
Very Embarrasing to lose by a horse sitting last on the final turn.

I dont know how embarrasing it was i mean they were going prety slow but my goodness did that horse hit the jets. i was impressed with that kind of a turn of foot wonder if they plan to run him next year.

The odd thing on paper going into this race was that the majority of the field both pedigree- and stylewise had the look of milers. Muny (by Najran), Dixie Chatter (Dixie Union with Phone Chatter on the bottom), Gio Ponti (Tale of a Cat), Sailor's Cap (Distant View), and even Albahri (Bahri) had pedigrees geared towards a flat mile. In that regard (and main rival Madeo not getting to run), I don't think Court Vision overcame very much despite the slow pace.

Recordwise, Gio Ponti saw out the Virginia Derby, but won by a diminishing margin after sitting behind a slow pace (just as Cowboy Cal et al. did today). He gave it up in the Jamaica after hitting the front, too. I don't think the trouble he had down the lane cost him, he never made a serious bid. He's dubious at 9f or beyond at this point, IMO.

Sailor's Cap saw out the distance on off turf, and he seems a cut below anyways. Cowboy Cal looked good at 9f as a 2yo, but he is winless this year, often on the bench, and has lost ground down the lane in all his 3yo starts. I wonder if he won't switch to the main for the Strub series to find his best.

Madeo got an odd ride. At no point was he allowed to accelerate (even down to the wire) and was kept between horses throughout. It didn't look like he was on anyones heels at any point so I'm not sure why Smith didn't try and "make his own hole" (not that that wouldn't have gotten him into real traffic problems). The thing that sticks out, though, is that Madeo has now started 4 times on the turf. In 3 of those (including today) Smith has held him in the back of the pack. All 3 times, the horse has had trouble getting through the field. The one time he kept the horse in midpack (the Del Mar Derby settling 4th on the inside IIRC), the horse made the lead at the top of the stretch and kept on to win smartly.

Gio Ponti never " hit the front " in the Jamaica.

According to the NYRA chartmaker, he did.

You mean the equibase chartmaker?

I was going off the PPs, just for the record. I didn't see the replay of the Jamaica.

The equibase chartmaker responsible for NYRA tracks.

When I first saw the line, I thought 'what the ****, GP never put a head in front'.

The dude has a skewered way of looking at the stretch runs at that call. It's happened before.

I just watched it a few times....he might have gotten within a neck....but probably more like a half length.

Yeah, I just watched it on the NYRA website. I guess with regards to handicapping, watching TV is always better than reading. Nonetheless, Gio Ponti was still outfinished (albeit with some traffic issues) down the lane. He seems to be a sucker horse one way or the other, especially now that he will be in 4yo and up events from now on.

And as great as it is that Court Vision is now probably worth at least $100 million (in IEAH money anyways), I'm curious to know what would have happened, given the pedestrian pace today, had runaway Secretariat winner Winchester run here instead of the Hollywood Turf Cup next week.

Also, for Christmas I want Dixie Chatter to run in the Malibu, if for no other reason than to make the race even more impossible to handicap.

I disagree with you here Rolo. Gio Ponti's dam was by Alydar and his best win by figure and grading was at 10f. Albahri has plenty of stamina on the bottom as well and he had just won consecutive races at 1 5/16th and had never raced at less than 1 3/8 befoe today. Midships dam was by saddlers wells and he had raced his last 7 races at 10f or longer.

Gio Ponti is also a half to the opportunistic stayer Fisher Pond, whose black type is at 11f or further on both surfaces I think.

Regardless, Tale of the Cat seems to produce sprinter/miler horses for the most part, which was the basis for suggesting he has distance limitations. Under ideal race conditions, some of his horses can go 9f or more (Tale of Ekati, Lion Heart, Gio Ponti). However, maybe his string of losses at short odds is more a product of him being overrated than a stamina issue.

I mentioned Albahri because his sire was best at a flat mile. I realized he had won over much further (which is why I used "even" in the statement). My point was, basically, aside from the Mizzen Mast colts and the winner, the field on the whole wasn't particularly bred for 10f (at least on the top side).

Gio Ponti's most impressive win was the Hill Prince....at a mile.

Well...it looks like you won :)