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-   -   11/28 (HOL) Citation (Gr. I); Miesque (Gr. III) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=26430)

Kasept 11-26-2008 11:25 AM

11/28 (HOL) Citation (Gr. I); Miesque (Gr. III)
 
6th (3:04) Miesque S. (G3)

1 Mile (Turf) | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $100,000

1 Dreamalong Solis A 115 L
2 Internallyflawless Gomez G K 117 L
3 Atka Sutherland C 117 L
4 Platinum Stiletto Court J K 115 L
5 Pretty Katherine Potts C L 117 L
6 Emmy Darling Bejarano R 117 L
7 Kinesiology Flores D R 117 L
8 Habaya Migliore R 117 L
9 Eloquently (GB) Rosario J 117
10 Century Park Smith M E 117 L
11 Grace Gryder Garcia M 115 L
12 Ms. Lively Stra K 117 L



8th (4:05) Citation H. (G1)

1 1/16 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $400,000

1 Hyperbaric Baze T C 120 L
2 Galantas Rose J 116 L
3 Ferneley (IRE) Espinoza V 114 L
4 Lord Admiral Solis A 118 L
5 Becrux (ITY) Smith M E 117 L
6 Rebellion (GB) Bejarano R 118 L
7 Medici Code (GB) Pedroza M A 113 L
8 Proudinsky (GER) Valdivia J Jr 116 L
9 Whatsthescript (IRE) Gomez G K 120 L
10 Formal Decree (GER) Samyn J L 117 L

Kasept 11-26-2008 11:32 AM

Dynamite edition of the Miesque and am anxious to see Internallyflawless go. Had hoped to get her into the Juvy Filly Turf at the Cup. Won't be priced as attractively here obviously, but she has the makings of a really nice runner. Will be able to play this race on ATR Friday along with the Clark..

Payson Dave 11-26-2008 12:11 PM

Citation PP's

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...ion_132141.pdf


Miesque PP's

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...lin_132156.pdf

Chalky 11-28-2008 09:19 AM

The Citation today at Hollypark
 
Maybe I'm missing something, and I know there are a lot of savvy handicappers on this forum, so I will ask the question:

What am I missing in this race today, because it looks to me like Whatsthescript towers over these and if I can get anwhere near the 5/2 on the morning line, I should unload?

Any thoughts on this race are appreciated. Thanks.

SilverRP 11-28-2008 09:39 AM

Exactly what I was thinking. 9/5 is the highest, probably closer to even..

CSC 11-28-2008 10:36 AM

He can win though I wouldn't "unload" my wallet considering Hyperbaric is a serious contender in here and he'll be twice the value.

Chalky 11-28-2008 10:46 AM

Thanks to all. I guess will play him as a single in the P3 and P4, and then box him in the exacta with those horses you mentioned. Good luck, and thanks for the insight.

CSC 11-28-2008 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I agree 100%. There is very little speed in the race and Hyperbaric might actually find himself on the lead. I know it looks like Formal Decree has a bit of speed, but he crawled from the rail last time, with the quick run into the turn. But today, breaking wide, with Samyn leads me to believe he'll be coming from off the lead. Whatsthescript can absolutely win, but I can't be him to win.

I thought Lord Admiral was a bit interesting at a price.

Many will look at Whatsthescript's 3rd to Goldikova in the BC Mile and think wow that was quite the performance, however that was a well beaten 3rd and though Goldikova is a special horse, Kip Deville was a clear 2nd in that race. Again I respect Whatsthescript but to me it was a bit of suck up for 3rd in the Mile, he sure can win today, but I'm not sure he is the best bet per say of all of the races today.

CSC 11-28-2008 10:59 AM

And again you don't need Hank Goldberg to tell you Whatsthescript can win today.

SilverRP 11-28-2008 11:03 AM

Any thoughts on Emmy Darling? More I look at it, the more I like. Any chance getting 3/1 on her?

SCUDSBROTHER 11-28-2008 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
Many will look at Whatsthescript's 3rd to Goldikova in the BC Mile and think wow that was quite the performance, however that was a well beaten 3rd and though Goldikova is a special horse, Kip Deville was a clear 2nd in that race. Again I respect Whatsthescript but to me it was a bit of suck up for 3rd in the Mile, he sure can win today, but I'm not sure he is the best bet per say of all of the races today.

I've always liked W-T-SCRPT, but I didn't care for that last race. Maybe GOMEZ was too confident, and gave him too much to do (to come from last off a pace that looked like the front horses were being very cordial with each other.) I didn't care for that track though. They obviously slowed it down so even a parasite like 'Code could get up in the sprint. He may not have cared for it. He likes this track. Has a cheater trainer, and the best money jock. He probably looks like himself today. He has more speed than what he showed the other day(again a sign he didn't like the track that day). Kip didn't look himself either (that day.) If he is mid-pack full of run, then he's himself again. Hate to take low odds against 4 horses who haven't run on the course before. Also, Ferneley could be a horse for the course. I could do without the race. I hate a race like this. So little reward. We hem n' haw about a horse who will pay nothing.

Mike 11-28-2008 01:34 PM

I'll box Internally Flawless with Eloquently in the 6th; tri key Whatsthescript over Galantas and Formal Decree in the 8th

Chalky 11-28-2008 01:40 PM

I do like Emmy Darling today and think you just may see 3/1 or better in that field.

CSC 11-28-2008 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
I've always liked W-T-SCRPT, but I didn't care for that last race. Maybe GOMEZ was too confident, and gave him too much to do (to come from last off a pace that looked like the front horses were being very cordial with each other.) I didn't care for that track though. They obviously slowed it down so even a parasite like 'Code could get up in the sprint. He may not have cared for it. He likes this track. Has a cheater trainer, and the best money jock. He probably looks like himself today. He has more speed than what he showed the other day(again a sign he didn't like the track that day). Kip didn't look himself either (that day.) If he is mid-pack full of run, then he's himself again. Hate to take low odds against 4 horses who haven't run on the course before. Also, Ferneley could be a horse for the course. I could do without the race. I hate a race like this. So little reward. We hem n' haw about a horse who will pay nothing.

Ferneley and Hoss's longshot I looked at after he mentioned it, I'm not sure of either judging by their last races I used both past p's and video to see incase I missed anything, the favorites would have to throw a clunker in my opinion if they were to win. Formal Decree you have to give a chance to off his last 2. I tried getting creative but I couldn't make a case for anyone else in here.

1-10-9 here.

I should mention Rebellion also, but isn't he a poly horse and not a turf horse? 2nd in the BC d mile however 6-7 maybe his better trip?

Chalky 11-28-2008 02:50 PM

I do like Emmy Darling today and think you just may see 3/1 or better in that field.

Mike 11-28-2008 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike
I'll box Internally Flawless with Eloquently in the 6th; tri key Whatsthescript over Galantas and Formal Decree in the 8th


With the scratch of Galantas, I'll adjust with a tri key of Formal Decree on top of Whatsthescript and Medici Code

GPK 11-28-2008 04:58 PM

I think Pretty Katherine is gonna run better today than people think. I think she has a big chance at boxcar odds.

GPK 11-28-2008 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK
I think Pretty Katherine is gonna run better today than people think. I think she has a big chance at boxcar odds.


Brief thrill anyways.


Nice ride by Cochise on the winner:tro:

the_fat_man 11-28-2008 05:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
Many will look at Whatsthescript's 3rd to Goldikova in the BC Mile and think wow that was quite the performance, however that was a well beaten 3rd and though Goldikova is a special horse, Kip Deville was a clear 2nd in that race. Again I respect Whatsthescript but to me it was a bit of suck up for 3rd in the Mile, he sure can win today, but I'm not sure he is the best bet per say of all of the races today.

11.63 penultimate 1/8th
10.95 last 1/8th

while Goldikova ran 12.03 and 11.03 for the same splits.

of course, she ran a lot more earlier (though she was pulled around the track, as she was drafting) so, yeah

this was a SUCK UP effort. :rolleyes:

Not saying he has to win but let's, at least, interpret his last race correctly.

P.S. he also didn't change leads in the lane.

pgardn 11-28-2008 07:05 PM

I love wire jobs on the turf.

Travis Stone 11-28-2008 07:28 PM

That was some tremendous race riding by Baze. They had to step on it just a touch to shake clear of Samyn and then relaxed well, looked to be in some trouble on the far turn, but had plenty left.

Scav 11-28-2008 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone
That was some tremendous race riding by Baze. They had to step on it just a touch to shake clear of Samyn and then relaxed well, looked to be in some trouble on the far turn, but had plenty left.

He looked in trouble? Tyler never moved on the horse until he cut him loose.

I think this race is a great example of people not looking into race dynamics (meaning making Whatsthescript 6/5). I can't argue that he was usable, but he certainly wasn't 50% to win the race...

Travis Stone 11-28-2008 07:46 PM

I thought it looked like the others were starting to swarm-in but it was a quick second thought as moments later he was gone.

Scav 11-28-2008 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone
I thought it looked like the others were starting to swarm-in but it was a quick second thought as moments later he was gone.

Alright, I'll give you that

the_fat_man 11-28-2008 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
He looked in trouble? Tyler never moved on the horse until he cut him loose.

I think this race is a great example of people not looking into race dynamics (meaning making Whatsthescript 6/5). I can't argue that he was usable, but he certainly wasn't 50% to win the race...

Handicappers look into race dynamics. In fact, LONE SPEED is the prime play of just about EVERY idiot out there.

The problem, however, is that (cheap) speed seems to win quite a bit more often on the CALI turf than just about any other turf course out there. This might be attributed to the hard course. Granted, that's a factor. But, my theory is that the CALI jocks just never ****in learn: either in contesting loose leaders or DRAFTING OFF THEM. You can go to a lesser track, like CRC, for example, and good luck getting out there on your own and wiring. While those jocks are no where near as good overall as the ones riding at S.CAL, they at least don't want to get bent over by an easy lead wire job.

And, the trainers just don't get it either out there. They keep horses in the barn and drill them ridiculously fast, while they could be put to better use keeping paces honest (since the jocks can't seem to be able to do it on their own).

10 pnt move up 11-28-2008 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Handicappers look into race dynamics. In fact, LONE SPEED is the prime play of just about EVERY idiot out there.

The problem, however, is that (cheap) speed seems to win quite a bit more often on the CALI turf than just about any other turf course out there. This might be attributed to the hard course. Granted, that's a factor. But, my theory is that the CALI jocks just never ****in learn: either in contesting loose leaders or DRAFTING OFF THEM. You can go to a lesser track, like CRC, for example, and good luck getting out there on your own and wiring. While those jocks are no where near as good overall as the ones riding at S.CAL, they at least don't want to get bent over by an easy lead wire job.

And, the trainers just don't get it either out there. They keep horses in the barn and drill them ridiculously fast, while they could be put to better use by keep honest paces (since the jocks can't seem to be able to do it on their own).

I think the limited turf horse population and overubundance of alomost never rained off turf events leads to some shorter fields and the increased chance of a wire jobs by the cheaper horses in the race.

Hyperbaric I would contend though was not that cheap of speed, his form has been excellent the past few months.

CSC 11-28-2008 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Hope you got some of that exacta. It was a nice one.

Nice call Hoss!

CSC 11-28-2008 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
11.63 penultimate 1/8th
10.95 last 1/8th

while Goldikova ran 12.03 and 11.03 for the same splits.

of course, she ran a lot more earlier (though she was pulled around the track, as she was drafting) so, yeah

this was a SUCK UP effort. :rolleyes:

Not saying he has to win but let's, at least, interpret his last race correctly.

P.S. he also didn't change leads in the lane.

I'll be happy to elaborate on that tommorow, I just got in and I am just too tired right now, goodnight.

alysheba4 11-29-2008 08:51 AM

gomez was f%cking horrendous yesterday....

CSC 11-29-2008 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
11.63 penultimate 1/8th
10.95 last 1/8th

while Goldikova ran 12.03 and 11.03 for the same splits.

of course, she ran a lot more earlier (though she was pulled around the track, as she was drafting) so, yeah

this was a SUCK UP effort. :rolleyes:

Not saying he has to win but let's, at least, interpret his last race correctly.

P.S. he also didn't change leads in the lane.


Whatsthescript was given a ride to hit the board in the BC Mile, to me whether people want to agree or not it was a suck up ride, given he had post 11, I wouldn't be too critical of Gomez(he had few options). Horses as in Thorn Song and Daytona, Precious Kitten were ridden to win and worked through fractions of 23, 46.52, Whatsthescript's late run was disguised with a set of faltering pace setters and horses that were closer to pace that day that were ernestly trying to win the race, given that he was only asked to run no more a 1/4 mile that day, his numbers can be construed as misleading. Sometimes you just can't go on raw numbers, in my opinion that is just one piece of the picture here.


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