Wed: Belmont $1MM Carry Contest
 

http://drf.com/entries/22/eBEL22.html?rn=556341


$2,000

ok, 3 nights of studying 6 races, yes this could be worthwhile!

5 out of the 6 races are turf. :) I'll study the 2 New York bred races last. May die or something before Wednesday, and then I would get out of studying the NY BREDS.

The 8th is an absolute nightmare.

if the 8th is a nightmare, what does that make the 2 baby races to kick this thing off?

I dont think the 4th is that tough, Master should be very strong in here with Prado and if you feel like you need to use another horse, why not throw in Tagg's horse.

Thanks.

Now that leaves me with the 3,4,8,9,11.

I just moved him down as well.

I tend to like them better. The forth isn't real bad with Master adding blinks and Distant Strike cutting back in distance with solid turf breeding. The knock on DS is Luzzi but he does tend to ride these kinds of horses better. Winthrop House would be solid here based on connections and breeding but he's taken awhile to come back and has some notable gaps in his works that I don't like. But I repeat, the 8th is a nightmare.

I disagree. I see four horses that can win the race, maybe five, but one most likely in Mesa Girl.

I agree, I like about 5 horses here which for me is difficult because I can't afford to go too deep into these. Mesa Girl is one of them but she isn't going to get an honest pace to shoot at I think. There are some horses that like to be up front but they are by no means blazing. Who is Lady should run very well here. Her last two on Firm turf were very good for this group. Doree Daze is another. I generally stay away from horses that are running first off their maiden but she sure loves that lasix and could take this group with Javey C. blowing kisses to the crowd as he storms home in the stretch.
But my problem here is I could make a case for most of the horses in here. No one really stands out in my mind.

How exactly does LUzzi ride ANY horse better? This horse was PUMPED around the track by Leparoux last out and wilted like a bitch in the lane. Tomorrow, he cuts back, and thus will be PUMPED HEAVILY from the gate by LUzzi, the only way he knows how to ride. Don't want any part of him.

As for Master, he was bumped badly early, was in tight until the turn and finished decently in a race where there was minimal passing. (The race chart looks like a dirt race.) What I found impressive is that the horse kept straight as an arrow in the lane while Prado repeatedly beat him lefty. What I don't like that is that BLINKERS are going on. Until the point where he was bothered, the horse had broken well and was with the leaders. So he has some natural speed. Why put blinkers on while stretching out? Bad move.

Looks like a 1ster or Kiaran to me.

Race 8 ratings....

8-6-3-11

Honestly.... Races 4,6,8, and 9 are a crap shoot when you can make a case for 4 or more ... it's like playing the lottery... everyone right now (trainer and owner) looking for easy purses with all other eyes on the big show this weekend.... Pick a fav and a shot... play a reasonable ticket and say your "Hail Mary's".... Look for this carryover to build at least two more days to get everyone out to the track this weekend.... Not saying stuff like this is planned .... But I would not bet on Jimmy Johnson this weekend either... he needs to have a bad finish this weekend or next to get those tv ratings for the last 3 races...... Cynical??? who me????

Good points here. I was looking for a way of justifying Master as he is cutting back and has some very solid breeding for turf but I have gotten burned with horses stretching out with 1st time blinks. REgarding Luzzi I don't know what I was thinking. So thanks. I keep going back to Kiaran's as he has two works at Belmont and his crew at Belmont is solid. If you notice he had 4 works at Belmont on his maiden which was a very impressive start.

As for a firster, none of the trainers appear to get them going well 1st time out. Of those Caffe D'Oro looks good with some solid and speedy gate works coming into this, great turf breeding and Javi on board.

Thanks for helping me get myself clear here. good luck.

I hear ya but it isn't quite that bad. Almost. And yes, as I was reading the end of your comment I do think I heard the twilight zone music in the background.

Post Scratches

$2 AAAAAA 3,6 //1 //1,7//5,6//6,7 //1,2 = $64
$2 BAAAAA 2,11,12//1 //1,7//5,6//6,7 //1,2 = $96
$2 ABAAAA 3,6 //2//1,7//5,6//6,7 //1,2 = $64
$2 AABAAA 3,6 //1 //5,9//5,6//6,7 //1,2 = $64
$2 AAABAA 3,6 //1 //1,7//3 //6,7 //1,2 = $32
$2 AAAABA 3,6 //1 //1,7//5,6//4,11 //1,2 = $64
$2 AAAAAB 3,6 //1 //1,7//5,6//6,7 //4,7,10 = $96
$2 CAAAAA 9,5//1 //1,7//5,6//6,7 //1,2 = $64
$2 ACAAAA 3,6 //5,10//1,7//5,6//6,7 //1,2 = $128
$2 AACAAA 3,6 //1 //2,4//5,6//6,7 //1,2 = $64
$2 AAACAA 3,6 //1 //1,7//1,4 //6,7 //1,2 = $64
$2 AAAACA 3,6 //1 //1,7//5,6//9,10 //1,2 = $64
$2 AAAAAC 3,6 //1 //1,7//5,6//6,7 //3 = $32
$2 BBAAAA 2,11,12//2//1,7//5,6//6,7 //1,2 = $96
$2 BABAAA 2,11,12//1 //5,9//5,6//6,7 //1,2 = $96
$2 BAABAA 2,11,12//1 //1,7//3 //6,7 //1,2 = $48
$2 BAAABA 2,11,12//1 //1,7//5,6//4,11 //1,2 = $96
$2 BAAAAB 2,11,12//1 //1,7//5,6//6,7 //4,7,10 = $144
$2 ABBAAA 3,6 //2//5,9//5,6//6,7 //1,2 = $64
$2 ABABAA 3,6 //2//1,7//3 //6,7 //1,2 = $32
$2 ABAABA 3,6 //2//1,7//5,6//4,11 //1,2 = $64
$2 ABAAAB 3,6 //2//1,7//5,6//6,7 //4,7,10 = $96
$2 AABBAA 3,6 //1 //5,9//3 //6,7 //1,2 = $32
$2 AABABA 3,6 //1 //5,9//5,6//4,11 //1,2 = $64
$2 AABAAB 3,6 //1 //5,9//5,6//6,7 //4,7,10 = $96
$2 AAABBA 3,6 //1 //1,7//3 //4,11 //1,2 = $32
$2 AAABAB 3,6 //1 //1,7//3 //6,7 //4,7,10 = $48
$2 AAAABB 3,6 //1 //1,7//5,6//4,11 //4,7,10 = $96


2000.00

old fashioned way

4) 3/5/6/9/11

5) 1/2/9

6) 1/5

7) 5/6

8) 6/7/11/12

9) 1/2/6/9

$1920

Scratches
 

R3) 1 (poe) Bedford Arch Early

R4) 8 Cellar Dweller Early

R5) 2B Fancy Asset Early

R6) 1X Hold That Prospect Early
11 Weekwee Early

R7) 10 Fort Carillon Early

R8) 1 Carrs and Stripes Early
1A Worth a Shot Early
12 Who Is Lady Early

R9) 1A My Cruiser Early
13 A. P. Light Early

3,5,11,12
1,2,9
2,9,10
1,3,6
3,6,8
4,7,10

and

5,11
1,9
1,10
1
8,9,11
7

Contest and then for real on the Cheap!
 

Contest
4th 3, 5, 6

5th 1e, 2, 9 second

6th 2, 5, 7 second

7th 3, 4, 6, 9

8th 6, 7, 9 second

9th 2, 4, 10 third

$1944

For Real on the Cheap
3 // 1e // 2, 5 // 4, 6 // 6, 9 // 2, 4 $32

P6
 

4) 3-5-6
5) 1-2-4
6) 1-5-7
7) 1-4-5-6
8) 6-7-9
9) 1-7-10

Feel like the 9th is going to be a BOOM!

At work, little time to cap, caveman only, $1,920

4- 3,6
5- 1,2,3,9
6- 5,6
7- 1,6,9
8- 5,6,9,11
9- 1,3,4,5,7

Good Luck!

1,3,6,9,12 / 1,2,10 / 1,2,5 / 1,6 / 6,7 / 1,3,10

1,3,5,6,9 / 1,2,5 / 1,2,5 / 1,5,6 / 6,9,10 / 1

$1890 total!!

Best of luck to everyone attempthing this huge c/o!

Lunchtime Lunge!
 

At home for just a moment, so here's my (p)lunge!

R4: 3,5,6,12
R5: 1,2
R6: 1,2,5,6
R7: 3,5,6
R8: 6,11
R9: 7,10

If it carries tomorrow, I'm off work and at OTB!

Good Luck to All Today... especially the "real deal" players.

4th: 3, 6, 9, 11
5th: 1, 2, 4
6th: 2, 7
7th: 1, 4, 6
8th: 4, 6, 7, 9
9th: 1, 4, 10

4 x 3 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 3 = 864 x $2. = $1728.

4th: 4, 12
5th: 8, 9, 10
6th: 2, 7
7th: 3
8th: 4, 6, 7, 9
9th: 1, 10

2 x 3 x 2 x 4 x 2 = 96 x $2. = $192.

$1728.
+$192.

= $1920.

Just a stab,
4) 3,6,10
5) 1,2,4
6) 1,5,6,7
7) 3,5,6
8) 6,7
9) 1,4,10,14
$1728 total
Good Luck to all.

356 11
125
125
16
67 10 11
137 = 1728
*** i don't need the extra 272, b/c im gonna hit with this ticket right here:p

-bt-

3,4,8/2,4,6/2,5,7/1,3/6,9,11/1,2,3,4,7,9 $1944

4: 3,5,6,11,12
5: 1,9
6: 1,3,5,6,9
7: 1,3,8
8: 4,11
9: 1,3,10

$1800

4. 3,6,9,10
5. 1,8,10
6. 3,5,9
7. 1,6
8. 4,6,7
9. 1,2,4,9

PK6

R4 - 3 4 6 9 / 1 5 6 / 4 5 / 1 6 / 6 / 1 2 10 = $288

Good Racing Luck

Looks like Nick is the only one alive
:wf

yes all but 1 knocked out already, i guess $2000 is not that much after all. stella i believe is first win for sire or mare on the turf.

Not anymore, the 1 in the 6th was the last horse I cut off to get the ticket under $2K. Wrong cut. Tough sequence, looks likely to be another carry.

stella got her groove back at the wrong friggin time.:zz:

how could there possibly be a carryover again?

no chance

Looks like it carries to the 8,11, and 12.

All look hopeless, but who knows?

great call. Excellent ride beat my horse in the final strides.