Zito: Commentator passing BC; Targets '09 season
 

Coming back too slowly from Mass Cap.. Will return for 8yo year..

http://www.drf.com/news/article/98869.html

like if it was at Belmont he wouldnt be up to it?

Did you ban pg1985 again?

Would they have bothered working him yesterday if they weren't at least considering it? Seems to me Farmer wanted to give it a shot so they worked him and he wasn't ready.

It's the right move.. Give him all the time he needs to recuperate..

The older male divison will be horrendous again in 09... he'll have another good year on the track and another Whitney win...

The best form of his career part doesn't matter a whole lot here being that he will be laid up until 2009.

Man talk about proper management of a horse putting them in the right spots at the right times - 20 starts lifetime 13 wins 7 years old.

I don't know about that. He runs best when given the proper time.

Anybody that thinks Nick wouldn't like to take a shot in the BC Classic with Commentator isn't really thinking. What trainer wouldn't take a shot with a horse under 10:1 in a $5 Million race that could well earn his horse Horse of the Year with a victory?

The simple fact is he needs real time between his races to do his best running and the BC comes a little too soon for Commentator. Obviously, polytrack and California are part of the equation, but even with all that, if this horse was absolutely prepared he would be going. His connections are well aware of what's at stake.

or maybe the work yesterday told them he wasn't coming back well, which is why they shelved him. he indicated he was tired, they're doing the right thing, regardless of what they may have been considering. i'd have been surprised had he shown up on the west coast for the bc, even if he worked like gangbusters. that surface is not inspiring confidence in many people.

As hard as it is for me to say this, this is 100% the correct decision

I don't get it.

If the BC was the ultimate aim, why 'risk' running in SUF if the horse needs extra time between races?

And, given the EASY time of it he had at SUF, why the extra time to recover?
Here's a case where a horse (physically) bounced.

Clearly they need to add a 9f race.
They probably need a 10f one for the fillies too.

Commentator = Lava Man?

Just see a lot of similar qualities, while good horses, despite their records I never felt either falls into the great category.

Lava Man couldn't compete outside of Southern California. Commentator has run huge races at Saratoga, Belmont, Keeneland, Churchill and Suffolk.

Now, Lava Man ran some very nice races, none as fast as quite a few Commentator ran, and Commentator has run fast races at more than a few distances, thus I just don't see the comparison.

Dont forget Gulfstream........LM did run a 120 beyer ONCE, in his first HWGC win.
Lava Man is a perfect example of why many beleive that Cali racing is just not up to par with the east coast.
The funny thing with LM is that his trainer seems to have a real niche for shipping east to pick up graded stakes.

I think people tend to get a bit fuzzy headed about Commentator, but c'mon man, that's crazy talk.

They've never been in the same league, and as for the rest of your post, I really don't see similarities.

I'm honestly confused.....which isn't in which one's league? I assume you mean Lava Man, as he was defeating Big Booster and Commentator was defeating future HOY Saint Liam and drowned Student Council who won last year's Pacific Classic.

Now, I don't think that's totally fair, as on his homecourt, Lava Man was vary good. But on raw talent? It's probably not that close.

I guess one of the similarities might be that each is/was very tough when they ran under certain conditions. Lava Man's limitations were geographical, while Commentator's are pace-based, but they both needed things a certain way to do much. Although I'm not sure that fact really distinguishes those two from 99% of the horses running.

For the most part, I don't think the two really compare very well. I have been far more impressed with Commentator's best then I ever was with Lava Man's best. I think Commentator is one of the more talented horses we have seen in recent years, while I would not put Lava Man on that list. On the other hand, Commentator's biggest weakness is that he lacks the ability to ever put together a truly impressive overall season (like Lava Man did in '06) because of all of his various physical problems. They are two very different animals.

Lava Man has Commentator 7-to-2 in Grade 1 wins. He's won Gr 1's on dirt, turf, and synthetic. He's also got a big figure (120 Beyer) that came without a dreamy trip when he won the Hollywood Gold Cup by 9 lengths with next out Pacific Classic and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Borrego checking in 2nd.

But he's also a horse who stuggled mightily as a claimer prior to Doug O' Neill claiming him - and with O'Neill - he failed in a miserable way all five times he ran outside of California.

Commentator currently has lost 6 of his last 8 Graded Stake attempts - is markedly less effective when pressured early - and needs a bunch of time between starts.

Commentator is obviously in the same leauge as Lava Man. He doesn't match up as well on accomplishments though ... but he remains sharp and carefully managed while LM is retired.

Both of them did the bulk of their damage at a time when the quality of racing was at it's lowest. I'd say they are pretty even - and both a little overrated.

Lava Man was very good for a 2 race stretch in '05 and then was nowhere in Commentator's league. He lucked out with one of the weakest handicap divisions in California history. I still fully believe that were Lava Man the one with balls instead of Borrego, that Borrego would have won every single race that Lava Man won after his retirement. And no one is going to confuse Borrego with Commentator.

It was actually a 3 race stretch - and it was clearly one of the best 3 consecutive race stretches by any horse this decade. It was from June to Aug of '05

* 116 Beyer win in Gr 2 Californian

* 120 Beyer win in Gr 1 Hollywood Gold Cup. Winning by 8.75 lengths in 1:59.60

* 112 Beyer defeat in the Pacific Classic - missing by less than a length after hooking up with Surf Cat head to head through an insane 45 and change half mile. Lava Man was vanned off after that race ... in what really was an under appreciated performance.

I do agree though - he was never really as good before or after those 3 straight races.

Somewhat off topic, but who was the last horse Zito sent to California for anything?

I originally called it a three race stretch but changed it to two in hopes that someone would correct me and I'd have ammo for the Borrego argument since Borrego beat Lava Man during his peak.

Aren't you clever.

That's pretty much how I meant it. However, I don't really see that horse being anything special, homecourt or not (lava man). He was lucky enough to be running in an era of historically bad older horses. If he'd have been running against horses from the mid 90s, he'd probably have been an allowance horse at best.

I guess then the Mass Handicap "America's Race" or Suffolk Downs "the birth place of CHAMPIONS" precluded the 5 million dollar race? Explain not running in an earlier dated/carded stake and heading to BCC if Zito knows the horse needs 120 days between starts?

Apparently the horses is as sound as I am sober.

I'm confused Freddy....he ran Commentator in the Mass Cap because it was exactly seven weeks after the Whitney. That was how long he felt the horse needed......he would not have been ready for a race at an earlier date. He's a gelding, so winning a Graded race isn't of real importance, and the Mass Cap was a perfect spot ( hard to argue with that in result ). Now the BC is six weeks from that race and he feels the horse needs more time.

What am I missing?

12 drinks?

That race alone was enough to make me a Lava Man fan... but, Commentator, when right, is as good as anyone this decade, especially at 9 furlongs.

Thats pretty much what I was getting at. I respect both horses but think their success was a combination of circumstance and incredible timing.

I dont think the switch to synthetic helped Lava Man at all.

I honestly dont know the answer to this, but who is the best horse Commentator has beaten?

By when right - I assume you mean when loose on the lead.

Clearly Commentator's best lifetime performance saw him desperate to hold off Saint Liam at 9fs - and Saint Liam was one of the lowest rated HOY's this decade in my opinion.

He's a 3 time Graded Stakes winner in his entire career - and his best race is nowhere near a Ghostzapper or Candy Ride's best race.

Commentator's talent at best is on par with a horse like Medeglia D' Oro - and he was nowhere near as consistant as MDO.

That's a good question.. Id love to know the answer to it...

St. Liam