Belmont Thursday.. Terrific racing
 

Anybody deep into tomorrow's card at BEL? I am only doing the 4th-9th, but what a fun afternoon lined up...

My own thoughts in the morning, but if anyone has specific races/horses they want to start yapping about, feel free. Some quality horseflesh and matchups tomorrow.

It's an excellent card.

I'm an excellent driver

Car? Horse? Golf Ball? :D

Rain Man

de-de-definitely a good card. yeahhh.

Anyone have an opinion on Rogue Victory in the 'cap??

I will be keying him in trifecta's and might play some P3's/4's around him.

He broke in the air in his second start and finished a good 2nd. He then was able to hold on for the maiden breaker in his last, through okay fractions against better. Hopefully, he can hold off Baletti and Valtrus, two other contenders IMO. Not sure what to think of D Treasure.

Having pointed him out, he'll probably scratch, just like every other horse that I look forward to betting does.

Well, I think he has a bit of a chance, but even though he blew the break two back he was more than compensated by getting a major pace set up. In his last, the pace was slow for the Mellon turf that day and I don't think he beat the strongest of fields.

The good news tomorrow is that he won't be part of the pace and he may have some upside. He will need it.....at least tomorrow.

On your scratch addition.....not unless something happens. I'm friendly with his owner and spoke to him yesterday about the race. They have every intention of running.

I was thinking that his horse was well meant, but of course, Im outside looking in. Hoping that his m/l holds up, because as you mentioned, he will be up against it tomorrow. Best of luck to the connections with this one, he has certainly caught my eye and should be a useful one down the road. I am eager to see how he fares against winners.

About the pace set up, I'm thinking he sits off of the first flight and pounces entering the turn. He will have to be all out to hold off Baletti, IMO, but my money will be on that he will.

Another one that I dont know whether to pitch or include is Frankel's charge. An awesome betting event for sure.

I thought Frankel's horse ran very well last time. Of course, it was hard turf, and the turf is perfect right now, so it's a guess whether or not he was helped or hurt by the conditions. As a speed, he was probably helped, but who knows if that was what he really wanted.

Interesting race.

I like Straight Romance. I think the horse is a natural stayer and the previous connections (including Hushion) were misguided in keeping him sprinting. I see him wiring the field and extending. Oh yeah.:rolleyes:

i have a huge opinion on him, hes a total play against, before his last race the horse never showed a bit of speed and prado guns him, clearly thinking he was sitting on much the best, the horse showed up and ran big that day, now prado jumps off to ride a horse thats 15-1 morning line ? explain that ? not only the jock switch bothers me, but i just rate him as not being in the top 5 in the race.... in my mind motts horse is clearly the horse to beat, i also like shug's horse, baletti and Discreet Treasure more then Rogue

i would also like to add, IMO this is the deepest 1x i have seen in a long time

Your logic is pretty flawed here. . .

explain...
i bet him last time with edgar, me and my friend and when he gunned to the lead i was shocked, i remember saying, He must be sitting on a ton today......
but please explain

I'll start in the 3rd with Buddy's Holiday. I think he'll stay at the 5-1 ml

In the 5th, Ship's Piano looks good to me at 4-1.Two of his last three have been very strong for this level, the third race was a dud following an eight month layoff.
Now returns after a 5 day layoff

In the 6th, I think it's all about Ballast(5-1 ml) getting in due to the 50k claiming price condition. Interesting race, though

I cant see Buddys Humor winning in this spot....
Ships Piano looks ok, but the race is wide open, i have at least 4 horses with chances..
Ballast is a nice horse, but i rate at least 4 higher, and at this point, with him being 7 he could very well be over the top, i would be shocked and impressed if he could beat these.

he has but at a decent price tomorrow and finally getting on turf, he has to be used... especially over horses like Rouge and Frankels horse.

I'm in the midst of a losing streak. Generally, do play alot of longshots. I think I'm trying to seriously evaluate and came up with very modest picks, oddswise.

i can see why someone would stab with Buddys Humor or the Coa horse in the 5th, but i cant see Ballast... I think this horse is finished.

In the 'cap I'll side with Discreet Treasure. He's been the heavy favorite in all 3 of his races, lost the last two but one race was a 2nd to Dr Pleasure. He's been competitive against good quality horses for the level and is now possibly 15-1. Loved the mud in his career opening, a race that was taken off the turf. So, they give him two more shots at dirt and realize he won't excel. The switch back to a grass race should be a huge plus for this horse

I feel good

#11 Hammock (12-1 ML) is somewhat intriquing in the nightcap from the outside post with elements of both early speed and closing ability in his PP's .
Rajiv has won on him at this track and distance. If Baletti doesn't fire for some reason. Mr Sidney/Valtrus and Hammock should be the main competition the former at shorter odds than Hammock.

Discreet Treasure is another example of a decent dirt horse unable to win again trying turf as a cure for "good not great disease". Rogue Victory is interesting. I don't usually play MSW winners next out in contentious fields and this one is pretty salty for a N1X. If he beats me I'll sleep okay.

3,11/7,8 for me in the last one

come on man, his good race is his 56 length maiden score, one of the best jocks sticking with him, and a turf pedigree

Mike I wasn't trying to give you a hard time as I didn't see your comments until now when I posted. Discreet Treasure has just been one of those "Hoovers" sucking up good money while posting solid numbers and I think the turf is more desperation than desired choice but if he beats me tomorrow I'll sing your praises......

Anyone have anything on the earlier races ? 2-5 ?

3rd Joppa Flats is clearly the one to beat IMO
4th Appears to be wide open as well as the 5th

2nd... im not sure how i feel about Leo or Missile Motor

Joppa Flats? Isn't that the horse that always runs 2nd?

nothing to beat here, i was his biggest basher, but his last 2 crush these

Yea it is interesting that Levine brings him back @ 7f rather than looking for a route to do the easy lead thing again. 7 and the other pace, could be a big negative, or maybe he can press and win in this mediocre group? He is the best possible play in the 3rd.

BEST POSSIBLE PLAY ? i swear right now i am truly confused, are you making a joke or being serious ?

meaning I wouldn't play Joppa Flat's or Sleuse to win at their price.

There is a decent chance Levine believes that Buddy's Holiday doesn't need an easy lead in a route.
He's entered in a 55k 7furlong race, and Levine doesn't "waste" a lot of races.

I probably should have typed "best of the possible plays"

i will be putting 90% of my money into joppa as a single, using Sargent Seattle a little on some back up's

pictures or video of CS on a horse?:D

Hooves, What do you think?

I found this in the Trip Notes! from 8-25


****joppa flats

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should have won by 3 in last and i hope they move up in class in the next

"Best of possible plays" to me in the 3rd is Pat Kelly's NY bred, (#3) Good Card.. It's his first race back as he gears up for his fall-winter campaign, but he's consistant and can tuck in behind Sleuse to sit a perfect stalking trip at what figures to be well north of the 10-1 ML price.