Betting Music Note to Show
 

Is this a dumb bet? We have gone over this but I was hoping that Dunbar would be so kind as to explain the logic...Lord knows that i cant.

For the record, if they have show betting in this race, I am going to bridge jump on Music Note. So please don't call me a redboarder when she finishes top three.

And if there is no show betting, i will not do the bet to place.

depends on what you're looking for.
if you just want to be able to cash a winner, may not be a dumb bet. if you're looking to make money, it's a dumb bet.

if you're convinced she'll win, it's a time for exotic and multi race bets with her as your single. change to make a bit more money that way, but if she does win, those payoffs won't be large either. but it'll certainly pay better than .05 cents on the dollar.

I think she is trying to tell you to find a way to lose your wager.

If there's show wagering....check the money in the show pool. If you think she will finish out-of-the-money, it worth a wager.
Hell, if she runs-out it only cost you $10 & if the "bridge jumpers" are there.....:$: :$: :$:

bet the house and get 5% for your money in less than 2 mins?

Think I'll bet Country Star to show and hope Music Note gently dumps JJ at the start. Worse case senario is CS still shows and splits w/MN. IMO. It does have bridgejumper race written all over it provided no one scratches.

I hear you but...logically, she won't run out of the money. Betting against her to run out of the money is a worse bet than betting on her to show.

hmmm sounds like you are thinking about putting $100k on a horse.

if you are wrong you will have to be right 20 more times

she probably won't but there's no value in playing just this race if you're convinced she'd win. she would be a very logical single in a multi race bet.

I singled her in the pick 4 altough there is no value today in that either.

The only play in this race to me is to bridgejump on Music Note. Free 5%

why take the risk? They're animals.

For money

no show

that solves that.

just think if all of us thought that about every race, we would be talking football right now.

no show wagering now

Country Star flipped out

What a damn mess.

A 5 horse field in a Grade 1 and they got a guy messing with Country Star - Music Note breaks through - and than Country Star gets pissed and rears.

what do you think, $2.20 for the trifecta?

Music Note broke through the gate? Sheesh, I wonder how I missed that. Country Star was pissy the whole time - she needed a lot of help to even get in the gate.

As a huge MN fan, I'm of course very happy. She did exactly what she was supposed to do to this field and I'm glad she got another Grade 1 win. I think Music Note was almost cantering at the end - she wasn't being asked and she ended up on her wrong lead, lol.


I wonder if she will run against older mares prior to the BC.............

Might as well been a walkover. Music Note looked like she was jogging as she approached the wire.

With Country Star a late scratch, there had to be a huge amount of show and exotics handle refunded.

Music Note beat three claimers in that race.

She broke open the front of the gate before the start - which delayed the start enough for the Frankel horse to launch Johnny V.

Even though she broke open the gate, she never moved.

I missed it.. what was the guy doing to Country Star? she was not happy before they put her int he gate so I rushed to place a ton of 5 w/ 1,2 w/ 1,2 trifecta bets. they scratch country star and I get a refund... :mad:

No one is doubting who she beat, but is there a question that she's a very good filly? I'm going to ask this question on this board because I know I'll get an honest answer.

Does Music Note stand a chance in the Distaff (sorry, I'm not calling it the Ladies Classic)? Nevermind to win, but to at least run well? I thought the Alabama (after thinking about if for some days) would have probably toughened her up, but here she was beating cream puffs so we didn't get to see. I really wish this had been a better field - what ends up happening in races like this is that the winner doesn't get any credit and it's as if there was almost no point in even running the race.

She doesn't stand a chance against Zenyatta. Tough Tiz's Sis has some synthetic form. Hystericalady has been on fire on dirt but laid an egg the last time she ran on synthetic. The wild card is how well Ginger Punch will do on synthetic (as she is a better dirt horse than Music Note). But they all will be running for second against Zenyatta.

What if Music Note freaks on the synthetic?

Ugh, that's right.......I forgot about the synthetic. That's not going to prove a thing.....shoot. I wish Music Note could face at least Ginger Punch before the Distaff (she won't be facing PS again) so we could see how good she is on a real dirt surface.

Ginger Punch is running in the Beldame in 2 weeks -- no way Godolphin runs Music Note back in 2 weeks against Ginger Punch. They could try the Spinster at Keeneland in 3 weeks if they want to see how she fares on synthetic. But she has had alot of races this summer (including a tough one last time out against Proud Spell) and I cannot see them running her again before the Breeders Cup.

With Zenyatta at even money or better, you will get a nice return on your investment if she freaks on the synthetic.

good points, thanks! Yep, I guess she'll go directly to the BC - if she doesn't handle it and runs poorly, it's not necessarily a reflection of her ability and she'll get a nice long rest before her 4 year old campaign.

Well, I am not going to make any calls until at least they run a race on the surface. I have seen a long list of cant lose freaks coming into the BC only to lose when it was time to dance. Riboletta is the one that always comes to mind when I think of recent ones that couldnt lose. I guess you could throw sightseek in there as well.

Music Note has shown terrific ability. She is young, lightly raced and bred to improve down the road. I wouldnt be ready to just give the race to Zenyatta especially considering her likely price.

She'll be one to look at, given she might be a forgotten 3rd or 4th choice in the betting. Really even if Country Star ran in this race we wouldn't have learned anything. Today's race was basically a paid workout, heck maybe workout is too strong an adjective. Walk perhaps is more fitting.

Agreed - MN would have won in a canter even with CS in the race. I don't understand why races like the Gazelle attract such bad fields - is a grade 1 win worth nothing anymore?

Today was hilarious (well, it was for me as a MN fan) - she really was out for a walk in the park. Tom Durkin's call was great.

[quote=Betsy]Agreed - MN would have won in a canter even with CS in the race. I don't understand why races like the Gazelle attract such bad fields - is a grade 1 win worth nothing anymore?

Today was hilarious (well, it was for me as a MN fan) - she really was out for a walk in the park. Tom Durkin's call was great.[/QUOTE

I laughed too! Hopefully she goes into the Distaff as the CHALK.

Too funny, we were at this race today Martin hit the pick 4 but we were all talking about the show money>>> how it would be a way better bet, you don't know these things in a multi bet before hand. He singled Music note and had all in the last leg, very chalky!:D

What kind of board is this with talk about show betting a 1/9?

she stand's a 1-10% chance to win, little to no chance at all, IMO....there are at least 4 fillies who are simply Faster then her, those 4 do not include Proud Spell, and Ginger Punch. The division is so strong this year that IMO she would have had a better chance beating Curlin in 2 weeks then she does winning the distaff.

Well there is Ginger Punch " who i hate" but always ends up right there....
and there is Bafferts horse who almost beat Zenyatta and then came to Belmont and put up a huge Speed figure.

Pretty sad:zz:

Oohk................I'm not going to bother explaining how Music Note beat Proud Spell (granted, PS had a nightmare trip - but MN lost two shoes, which no one seems to care about) and lost by a nose in the Alabama. The two fillies are thisclose. I asked this question on this board because I could expect unbiased, rational responses. I'm sorry, but your response sounds fairly biased against MN, so I can't take it too seriously. I didn't expect everyone to say that yes, she's going to win by the length of the stretch, but it's ridiculous to say that a filly as obviously talented as MN has one of the worst chances in the field to win or run very well. Nevermind Zenyatta, just what fillies are better than Music Note? I'm not going to argue Beyers. First, I have no idea what MN got yesterday and it doesn't matter, since she literally was cantering at the end. Second, I don't like reducing horse races to mere numbers just to judge who's better; I don't think it works like that.