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-   -   9/12: BEL C/O ($608k Friday!!) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24949)

Kasept 09-08-2008 11:30 AM

9/12: BEL C/O ($608k Friday!!)
 
$2,000 budget...

4: NYB Mdn Clm (6f)
5: NYB-ALW/N1X (8.5f-T)
6: NYB-MSW (6f-IT)
7: OC/N3X (7f-T)
8: CLM/N2L (6f)
9: MSW (1m-T)

hoovesupsideyourhead 09-08-2008 11:47 AM

steveo..the 6th looks like a two wider..the tagg and the rice entry.

blackthroatedwind 09-08-2008 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
steveo..the 6th looks like a two wider..the tagg and the rice entry.


I thought it was open to seven horses and didn't even consider the Rice entry.

It also may end up off the turf as there is the possibility of thunderstorms tomorrow night.

hoovesupsideyourhead 09-08-2008 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I thought it was open to seven horses and didn't even consider the Rice entry.

It also may end up off the turf as there is the possibility of thunderstorms tomorrow night.

if it stays on..the rice entry is two pronged carson city first turf/and the obv ny with corny is a standout..to me.

blackthroatedwind 09-08-2008 12:12 PM

I figure if you play the Pick-6 you should give yourself as good a shot as possible to hit it.

philcski 09-09-2008 01:02 PM

first glance... tough sequence. could see a two day carry.

blackthroatedwind 09-09-2008 04:18 PM

I agree Phil. If they stay on the turf, and we didn't get much rain, it's a very tough, but interesting, card.

the_fat_man 09-09-2008 05:00 PM

Assuming they go:

Dr. Decter has to be a BET AGAINST.

docicu3 09-09-2008 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Assuming they go:

Dr. Decter has to be a BET AGAINST.

2nd start, finished ITM in only start, on the grass from 4W,for an excellent trainer, with a solid published work at 4F in 47 and change, with one of the more productive jocks who rode last time when the horse clearly was bumped at the start of the only other start........yes please throw this one out of all plays. And thank you for contributing to the pools...

Please tell us all why this one is a definite toss and then while your upgrading NYRA's technical equipment for processing races maybe you can give the form a call and fix their problem with cappin' races since Dr Decter is the first selection on the Quick Sheet with the 2nd fastest Beyer and fastest TGH number in a turf sprint. Please do your best to convince others that this one clearly had a superior trip last time and will likely explode in a fractured mess if allowed to run tomorrow.

You are more fun than PG1985........how do you come up with this nonsense?

blackthroatedwind 09-09-2008 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by docicu3

You are more fun than PG1985........how do you come up with this nonsense?


This may be the single stupidest comment I have ever seen on this board. The guy started a thread the other day about a horse at Laurel that paid $10 and consistently adds intelligent analysis to this board.

He's also right that considering the likely odds on this horse that he's a good bet against.

hoovesupsideyourhead 09-09-2008 07:30 PM

10 bucks sweet:rolleyes:

ateamstupid 09-09-2008 07:41 PM

I think it's far from 'nonsense' to call Dr. Decter a bet against. He obviously can win, but is an almost certain underlay.

kenny p 09-09-2008 07:59 PM

Say what you want about the Fat Man but he can break down a race. Hes posted some nice winners on this board. Keep up the good work Fat Man. KP

docicu3 09-09-2008 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
This may be the single stupidest comment I have ever seen on this board. The guy started a thread the other day about a horse at Laurel that paid $10 and consistently adds intelligent analysis to this board.

He's also right that considering the likely odds on this horse that he's a good bet against.

Andy please.....just once let the guy make his own argument. For multi race wagering, which this thread is about,tossing that horse is just stupid for the reasons listed. You want to marry the guy be my guest. It's legal now in most states but the number of times you rush in as "the expert" to defend this guy is ridiculous. We get it. Your in love with the Fatman and his opinions but when you start making statements like Rice's entry in the 6th is not even the 7th most likely winner of the 6th tomorrow, with the turf sprint success she has had, it is easy to see why you had the kind of losing Saratoga meet you had. You look great on camera but weren't very good at the windows this summer now were you. You want to tell people to toss "A" selections in multi's be my guest.

Since when does a 4-1 shot at Laurel get you so excited. I give out a 15-1 ML that ends up 9-2 and your all pouty about payoff. Your main squeeze gives out Scott Lake in Maryland and you want to treat it like a BC P6.....Please.

hoovesupsideyourhead 09-09-2008 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid
I think it's far from 'nonsense' to call Dr. Decter a bet against. He obviously can win, but is an almost certain underlay.

we are talking about a pick 6 no..getting legs..in

hoovesupsideyourhead 09-09-2008 08:44 PM

:eek: :eek: :eek:

me too love it

blackthroatedwind 09-09-2008 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by docicu3
Andy please.....just once let the guy make his own argument. For multi race wagering, which this thread is about,tossing that horse is just stupid for the reasons listed. You want to marry the guy be my guest. It's legal now in most states but the number of times you rush in as "the expert" to defend this guy is ridiculous. We get it. Your in love with the Fatman and his opinions but when you start making statements like Rice's entry in the 6th is not even the 7th most likely winner of the 6th tomorrow, with the turf sprint success she has had, it is easy to see why you had the kind of losing Saratoga meet you had. You look great on camera but weren't very good at the windows this summer now were you. You want to tell people to toss "A" selections in multi's be my guest.

Since when does a 4-1 shot at Laurel get you so excited. I give out a 15-1 ML that ends up 9-2 and your all pouty about payoff. Your main squeeze gives out Scott Lake in Maryland and you want to treat it like a BC P6.....Please.


I'm now even less sorry I rejected your advances and went to the Fat Man instead.

I hope somehow you can get past that and get on with your life.

Coach Pants 09-09-2008 09:20 PM


docicu3 09-09-2008 09:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Wow!


You know what that was quite enough and I apologize I just have had enough of Fatman and you defending the guy. I was out of line and I apologize....I am making it worse.

See I got my just desserts....Papplebon just blue a save to go into first!!!....Damn it..something I actually care about

hoovesupsideyourhead 09-09-2008 09:22 PM

cat fight!!!!:zz: :zz:

docicu3 09-09-2008 09:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

damn thats funny!!

the_fat_man 09-09-2008 09:26 PM

See, this is all my fault. Instead of slapping the DOUCHE on ignore (and making him go away except when others QUOTE HIM) when he started acting up after his 7:2 winner, I should've invited Stevie Belmont (king of the long winded post winner celebrations) over from that other forum and had a special awards ceremony. I mean, it's not everyday that someone gives out a 7:2 shot. When was that again?

And I do apologize for picking against the short priced obvious trouble horse. :rolleyes:

ha ha ha

hoovesupsideyourhead 09-09-2008 09:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
See, this is all my fault. Instead of slapping the DOUCHE on ignore (and making him go away except when others QUOTE HIM) when he started acting up after his 7:2 winner, I should've invited Stevie Belmont (king of the long winded post winner celebrations) over from that other forum and had a special awards ceremony. I mean, it's not everyday that someone gives out a 7:2 shot. When was that again?

And I do apologize for picking against the short priced obvious trouble horse. :rolleyes:

ha ha ha

you could join him..at that other forum..possible king of the you dont see what i see gifted.....

ryonker 09-09-2008 09:50 PM

I'll "bat leadoff" and throw down the 1st set of picks-

2,5,7/2,10/1,11/1,6,7,8/7,10/1,7,10,11,12 =$960
8,9/2,10/1,3,11/1,6,7,8/7/1,7,10,11,12 =$480
2,5,7/1/1,11/1,6,7,8/7/1,7,10,11,12 =$240
2,5,7,8/2,10/3/1,6,7,8/7/1,7,10,11,12 =$320

total=$2000

thanks
Ron

cowgirlintexas 09-09-2008 10:41 PM

O.k.. things look to have settled down a bit and the coast is clear for me to post my picks :D

2-7-8/1-3-5/8-11/3-5/5-10/1-3-7-11

ateamstupid 09-09-2008 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Are you sure you don't want to insult someone first? It's pretty fun.

I laughed.

philcski 09-09-2008 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Assuming they go:

Dr. Decter has to be a BET AGAINST.

Not sure why you have such a strong opinion against this one in a pick 6 sequence. Stumbled at the start, then rushed up to chase after about the slowest first quarter ever at this distance, then hung a bit but that's forgivable in his first start and the rush-up. I don't think much of the winner of that race but honestly it was a good effort first out, all things considered. If he's not the most likely winner of this race I'd like to know who you think is. I certainly am not betting him to win at 9/5 but to leave him off a large pick 6 ticket seems silly.

philcski 09-09-2008 11:02 PM

By the way, based on the ML's I think the Levine entry is a HUGE bet against. Not a chance the 1 gets away with another ridiculously slow first quarter like he did at Saratoga.

ateamstupid 09-09-2008 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
By the way, based on the ML's I think the Levine entry is a HUGE bet against. Not a chance the 1 gets away with another ridiculously slow first quarter like he did at Saratoga.

I thought it was pretty funny that the chart said 'lively pace'..

ateamstupid 09-09-2008 11:07 PM

UPDATED FOR SCRATCHES:

Main: 2,3,7 / 1,2,3,10,12 / 1,2,3,10,11 / 1,2,7 / 7 / 1,10,14,15 = $1,800
Backup: 2,3,7 / 2 / 2,10,11 / 5 / 7 / 10,15 = $36
Backup: 2,3,7 / 2 / 2,10,11 / 7 / 1,4,10 / 10,15 = $108
Backup: 4,6,8,13 / 2 / 2,10,11 / 7 / 7 / 10,15 = $48

$1,992

philcski 09-09-2008 11:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid
I thought it was pretty funny that the chart said 'lively pace'..

Who made that chart :zz: For reference, there were two other turf sprints on that card, the Mechanicville and a 30k claimer that went :22 4/5 (1:02 3/5) and :23 (1:03).

blackthroatedwind 09-09-2008 11:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid
I thought it was pretty funny that the chart said 'lively pace'..


The rails were out that day, and when that was the case the paces in the turf sprints were greatly affected, and relative to the other two turf sprints ( all three were on the Mellon/Main course ) it was a solid pace. Bishops Back went 23 and 45 1/5 two races earlier than that and two prior to that Canadian Ballet went 22 4/5 and 45 2/5. For NY Bred maidens that was a very solid ( or " lively " ) pace.

the_fat_man 09-09-2008 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Not sure why you have such a strong opinion against this one in a pick 6 sequence. Stumbled at the start, then rushed up to chase after about the slowest first quarter ever at this distance, then hung a bit but that's forgivable in his first start and the rush-up. I don't think much of the winner of that race but honestly it was a good effort first out, all things considered. If he's not the most likely winner of this race I'd like to know who you think is. I certainly am not betting him to win at 9/5 but to leave him off a large pick 6 ticket seems silly.

Is it really? They crawled home.

I have to see the scratches, as Fra Lippo getting in will play a huge role in how the race is run.

Otherwise, two I think have a decent shot are:

City Sneakers: terrible footwork last out; assuming Rice can straighten him out, he should get a similar trip to DD (I typically don't like the outside, especially with the pace types, in these sprints)

Tee With the Tiger: no shot in race that didn't come back last out AND Samyn took his time getting him around/outside in the stretch; a multi-move race and the extra distance could get this hanger home.

But, this is very tough race.

docicu3 09-10-2008 02:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Not sure why you have such a strong opinion against this one in a pick 6 sequence. Stumbled at the start, then rushed up to chase after about the slowest first quarter ever at this distance, then hung a bit but that's forgivable in his first start and the rush-up. I don't think much of the winner of that race but honestly it was a good effort first out, all things considered. If he's not the most likely winner of this race I'd like to know who you think is. I certainly am not betting him to win at 9/5 but to leave him off a large pick 6 ticket seems silly.

Thank You....the Dr. may not win but if he does he is extremely logical especially as a second time starter with a work like that between starts he should move forward. If they are OTT then Serpe's #14 Pegasian would seem to have his way with these assuming enough scratches to draw in and hopefully not suffer too badly from the outside hole.

Turf : #11 Dr D or #10 Bullstar #2B It'sgoodtobeking #7 Grantor
Dirt : #14 Pegasian

docicu3 09-10-2008 03:42 AM

Early Ticket......like 4 AM early

Race 4 3,5,7 (May catch a price here on the [B]3 Valid Threat[/b] who ran MSW last time albeit at FL, gets the benefit of 9 lb weight advantage from the last race and a posted bullet 1/42 for 4 panels at 47 secs. and change in this bottom level maiden claimer which is tough as any in the 6 race sequence.

Race 5 If OTT then #3 Cardinal Hill is a single for me. If remains on the grass I think it's not as clear cut as the only grass race CH has run so far was not as solid a performance as his other races. Thus the #10 Dos Hombres with Espinosa is very competitive as are the #2 Tobruk and #12 Sammy's Toy.

#13 Theartofcompromise MTO would be a play if CH scratched and they were off

Race 6 See pleasant discussion above on the big ticket the #[b]11 DrD [/B]and #10 Bullstar are a play for me with 14 a single MTO. 2,3,7 probably are on my late P4's

Race 7 Although Godolphin #7 Rallying Cry apparently will be a heavy favorite I will play #9 Private Scandal and #10 Hollywood Left as very strong contenders here. The Clement entry is a must play.

Race 8 7 Valiant Humor 10 At Atn, 11 Tomlinson Hill, 3 Catch up Chris

Race 9 4,5,10,15

Last two after I finish rounding this AM......GL all!!

Ticket 3,7/2,3,10,12/10,11/1,3,4,6, 7/ 7,10,11/4,5,10,15 which I think is $1920...GL everyone

PeteMugg 09-10-2008 04:00 AM

5,7
1,3,5,7
1,3,11
1,2
3,7,10
1,4,11

$864

Good luck all

golfer 09-10-2008 05:53 AM

2,5,7
3
2,3,8,10,11
1,2,6,7
1,7,8
1,2,4,6,11

GPK 09-10-2008 06:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer
2,5,7
3
2,3,8,10,11
1,2,6,7
1,7,8
1,2,4,6,11


Seth, gonna live and die with CH huh?:D


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