I need help
 

OK, I am fed up with my handicapping. I've been doing this for 35+ years and can honestly say I'm a loser. I do it because I love racing and handicapping but something has to change.

I have like a $100 a month bankroll to blow and do a great job doing it. I mostly play exactas, some doubles, and win and place. I use brisnet pp's which I like, but I'm the problem. Besides the occasional big hit, there are just too many gaps between wins.

I'm thinking of just betting to win and cutting down on the races I bet. I don't know why I must bet every race but usually do.

Any suggestions?

Spyder

$1 pick 3s

Scott - Been there bro....I personally can't stand Brisnet PP's. They make my eyes bleed and my brain swell. Way too much superfluous data that throws me off my game. I'd suggest cutting back on the bankroll for a little while, get back to basics with the DRF PP's. You'll get back in sync and turn it around.

Just think of your handicapping as the opening leg of the Tour de France...

I like BRIS. It's cheaper and the difference in information isn't that much. I like how certain races are free.

Maybe just distract yourself with new hobbies until you forget about horse racing.

What was your biggest hit in your 35 years of capping?

You can't go wrong betting Big Brown to win every time out beginning in FL Derby. 4 out of 5 will never put you in the red.

You have two more chances to bet him.

From the Scavs has the wagering yips thread....
 

:D

Actually one other thing that has worked for me. If you really like a horse, bet him across the board.

Desert Key place and show money last week at Saratoga was a decent pay out.

Even though Big Brown lost Belmont, I also had Denis of Cork across the Board and he took a little of the sting out of the Big Brown money I lost (the one and only time).

Keep a log of what you are wagering on and after a month go back and look at what you did wrong and what you did right. For me dirt stayer distances are my bread or butter but turf sprints just kill me. I can't tell you why, but i know to stay away from turf sprints or get other opinions in the pick 4. Once you figure out what you are good at, you can play more of those races. Find your niche and stick with it. I don't know anybody that plays every race every day and wins money.

betting is a straight list of averages12/1 ,capping will reduce the odds from 12/1 to around 6/1, if you are betting alot of races the odds against you will blow out 3 races @ 12/1 ... 36/3 ..you will definatelety lose even if one of your horses comes in because you have so many bets you will lose.

I find the best way is to reduce your bets pick a track you like & bet on 1 race in that field ie your back to 6/1 odds i also buy a tin & when i go to bet i put half of what i was going to bet into the tin & if i have a win half goes into the tin that way even if you have a **** day aleast you still have money for when you go on holiday:D

Punting should be fun if it's not then the old rule kicks in stop doing it & find something that is

Don't bet money if you don't have it to lose. If it is a hobby than the $100. you lose is just recreational spending. If losing the $100 a month effects your lifestyle then don't play. I'm not an expert handicapper, I look at it as a hobby and believe the enjoyment I get out of it is worth the loss or gain.

Spyder...in all fairness, this game is incredibly difficult with a more extended budget, but with a $100 a month budget you are severly limiting yourself. IMO, just have fun with the money you are betting and don't worry about it. The chances of making a big (or even a semi-big)hit with that starting $$ amount is very slim.

If you havent learned how to win in 35 years it may be time to shut it down. Take your 100 monthly bankroll, buy the wizards scratch sheet, play dollar exactas, and you should be okay. If at this point in the game you are still losing consistantly just turn your handicapping over to a professional. Watch the races, enjoy them, get a little action, and if you lose its his fault.

i gave up any serious idea i could win long term betting horses after i started tracking my bets in 99. i had a good year in 2001 but by 2003 i could see the writing on the wall. i lost every year and it was a single bet that kept me from a negative roi in 2001.

i didn't quit but i understood that the idea i could beat the rake required more dedication than i was willing to devote.

so i cut back. i still play on big days. i still have a negative roi overall. but i still enjoy the wins. it still feels like i solved a difficult puzzle.

90% of the guys that tell you what to do have no idea if they're profitable or not. if you enjoy it, i don't think $100/month is bad rent.

put it in the right perspective, you have a life. this stuff should be 0.1% of it for guys like you and i.

I subscribe to the fewer bets are better than scattering at a minute before a race which we all do from time to time. Impulse betting is bad........most important concept in handicapping. Impulse betting will take your money virtually every time you do it.....if you haven't done the homework don't play.
Fewer bets are almost always a good step in the right direction...

bet a lot on your winners and a little on your losers

and take a break and wait for the Breeder's Cup although it will kindasuck becasue poly kinda does

get a new hobby...take a break .. when that hobby sucks you can come back..the races will allways be around..

Very well said. Now I know someone hs a grip on this game on the forum and really enjoys the game for what it is, entertainment.

Playing Sarotoga three years ago $2200 pick three

Appreciate the views. I think part of my frustration is I love Saratoga so much I end up playing it everyday. Because I work out of my house it's easy to watch Capital OTB in the morning, Siros's show, the races, and listen to Steve on Siriusin the afternoon. Only to print out the form and cap at night. I'm doing this as well as a job. After 5 weeks I'm a little burned out.

As to the responses, I bet what I can afford and look at it as entertainment, not for profit, and that's OK with me. Horse racing is my passion and don't look at it as something I want to quit.

As for what I'm going to do, I'm going to cut down on the races I play. Also, my fall tennis season is coming so that will keep me busy.

As for capping style, brisnet if free with twin spires which saves me $30 a month. I think I'm going to start a two stage capping method. Stage one look at the race and decide if it's playable. Does it have value, are there clear choices (sometimes I'll make a pick out of 3-5 horses I like which is a waste), is there an angle that shows a positive sign???

Then stage two once I have my pick, just play to win/place or just win. With brisnet keeping track of all bets you can query the history and W/P is my best betting success. I'll give myself maybe one or two exacta's a day when it looks appropriate.

Oh, and Bigs...thanks for finding that post...very funny. You know what they say about consultants...if you can't do it, be a consultant and get paid to to tell people how to do it.

Thanks again and best of luck,

Spyder
Consultant

I am strictly a horizontal player but on rare occasions if I realy really love a horse i will put a significant Win or Place or Show or WPS on him. I avoid Tris, Super, Super High 5 (the latter being the worst bet of all time) because I dont give a **** if or how a horse comes third or fourth.

I know you have 35 years plus of Handicapping experience BUT I would reccomend you buy some books on the subject. I would get Handicapping 101for your first book. Dont let the title fool you cause it opened my eyes on somethings i overlook.

I hear you. Bought Handicapping for Dummies at Saratoga and look forward to reading it.

Thanks,

Scott

mix in some football betting and you will win more money!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This thread hit home for me tonight. I throttled Saratoga every chance I got this past 6 weeks and got smoked at the windows the majority of the time. If I had the day off and Toga was running I was betting. I kept a "fairly" decent log of my daily wagering plays. All kidding aside, here is where I went wrong.

I saved up some cash for this meet. For me and my income, it was rather substantial in the big picture. I really dedicated myself on the days that I played to hit a few scores. It is important to note that I focused the majority of my bankroll this past 6 weeks on 2 wagers - win bets and pick 3's. Also, I tried to avoid any win bets on anything less than 3-1, I looked for a playable horse at 4-1 or higher.

After my day yesterday I was so frustrated and angry with myself when the reality sank in about how much I lost. But, in the big picture I am going to use this experience in a positive way because here is where I went wrong but in the same breath went right.

By keeping a fairly good log of my Saratoga bets I quickly discovered thru the meet that there was one type of race I lost more then any other, MSW. So, I know now to stay away unless their is some good info on one to make playable. In the same breath I need to play for fun and not take it so serious, hence the mistake of saving money for the meet.

I lost my tail this past 6 weeks, but all is not gone. Now,. I am going to take a break and enjoy some football and the great outdoors here in Ohio in the Fall. I love the early fall morning with the crisp cool air.

Got the Little Brown Jug as well;)

Play the Mummings/Cribnotes exacta box in the Hopeful :$: :D :$:

I'll echo and expand on others comments that it seems like you're indeed getting good entertainment for your buck. If you are indeed stretching and playing consistent action on just $100 per month, I'll also offer that you have to be doing some good handicapping on many of the races.

I think GPK (?) offered to increase the size of some wagers. I've mentioned before that it's a rare day that I bet horse racing that I bet more than three to five races, and most normally only one or two. I don't labor over lots of stats and figures, but if I can glance at a card and see something I like among easier elements of racing I routinely follow than I'll target a solid play of maybe $40 to $100 dollars for that race.

Could be win/place depending upon odds and competition.

Likely some $10 or $20 exacta boxes. If the track offers quinella wagers, I'll sometimes take my two top horses and do one straight exacta, and then a quinella. If it hits, it hits nicely enough even with favorites.

In a field of say up to 10 starters, if there are two non-favorites I feel strongly have a chance to hit the board, I might go up to $48 or so on some tri box combos and have had my share of signers on those.

And for me, I'm not one to always try to beat the favorite. If I see a favorite that looks like it's set up nicely going at 6-5, I have no trouble going $50 to win with a chance to profit $60 (though I wouldn't likely be betting place in that scenario).

It's a very rare race I bet less than $30, and a rare race I bet more than $100. I usually bet three to six days per month. It's rare for me to lose more than $200 to $300 in a day, and if it happens two betting days in a row I'll likely lay off betting for a couple weeks, so in that regard my designated monthly betting bankroll can be looked at as being about $400 to $500.

And if I can walk out of the OTB after my designated plays with $50 more than I walked in with I pat myself on the back for a job well enough done. If my plays do well, I'm normally a triple digit winner of some kind and leave to celebrate that as well.

One thing that I have going for me is that I can watch racing live or on television all day and enjoy it without a wager. I've learned that just watching racing isn't enough for everyone.

Not preaching a strategy, but just sharing what has worked for me for the last 8 years with an OTB nearby. And I guess one other quirk I have is that I refuse to bet unless at the track or the OTB. Betting from my home just doesn't give me the same level of enjoyment for some reason. And I do really enjoy placing bets at the OTB, and then come home to watch the races later. So I'm always getting my hand stamped upon exit, just in case.....:-)

Handicapping well is one thing...wagering effectively is another...they are related but they are not the same thing...good handicapping with a poor wagering strategy will result in loss of money...fewer plays with fewer exotics may help...

Thank's Mr. Swinelover...just kidding:o .

Sounds like cashing more tickets would boost your spirits no matter the price. Don't be one of those that always tries to beat the favorite and instead look for overlaid favorites. As another person said, place and show pools will at least let you cash more. Remember that favorites traditionally beat longshots on ROI. They won't beat the take and breakage, but you only have to be half as good as you do if you bet longer odds.

I get caught in cycles where I win money in the straight pools, yet can't resist the temptation the exotics offer. When I do stick to WPS, I cash a much larger percentage of bets, and I often end up on the plus side of the ledger.