Can Wanderin Boy steal the Woodward?
 

9th (5:13) Forego S. (G1)

7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $250,000

2 First Defence Hill C 119 L
1 Forefathers Prado E S 117 L
3 Eternal Star Velazquez J R 117 L
4 Bold Start Albarado R J 117 L
1A Ferocious Fires Velasquez C 117 L
5 Premium Wine Leparoux J R 117 L
6 Real Estate Coa E M 117 L
7 Lucky Island (ARG) Garcia Alan 121 L
8 Greeley's Conquest Chavez J F 117 L
9 Tasteyville Luzzi M J 117 L

A-Coupled: Forefathers and Premium Wine



10th (5:45) Woodward S. (G1)

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $500,000

1 A. P. Arrow Velasquez C 126 Blk-Off L
2 Loose Leaf Coa E M 126 L
3 Past the Point Prado E S 126 L
4 Divine Park Garcia Alan 126 L
5 Curlin Albarado R J 126 L
6 Dr. D. F. C. Arboleda A 126 L
7 Out of Control (BRZ) Velazquez J R 126 L
8 Wanderin Boy Leparoux J R 126 L



Zero speed in the Woodward aside from Wanderin Boy. Can Wanderin Boy steal it? I think he's extremely likely to run top two and if Curlin has some bad luck could steal it.

I asked Andy the same question earlier this week, and though I'm not sure if it's likely, it's definitely possible. How interesting would this race be if Commentator were entered?

Assuming he was entered instead of Wanderin Boy it would be extremely interesting. If Zito entered both then he'd be a moron. I think the 8 horse field really works in Wanderin Boy's favor. It increases the chance of Curlin getting a rough trip and increases the likelihood that Wanderin Boy gets forgotten on the lead.

Entries for the Woodward Stakes
 

Entries for the Woodward Stakes


The field for the Woodward Stakes (G1), in post position order, with trainer, jockey, and morning-line odds:

1. A.P. Arrow, Todd Pletcher, Cornelio Velasquez, 20-1;

2. Loose Leaf, Ken McPeek, Eibar Coa, 15-1;

3. Past the Point, Eoin Harty, Edgar Prado, 15-1;

4. Divine Park, Kiaran McLaughlin, Alan Garcia, 3-1;

5. Curlin, Steve Asmussen, Robby Albarado, 3-5;

6. Dr. D.F.C., Rodrigo Ubillo, Aldo Arboleda, 50-1;

7. Out of Control, Bobby Frankel, John Velazquez, 12-1; and

8. Wanderin Boy, Nick Zito, Julien Leparoux, 8-1.

That's what I mean, Commentator instead of Wanderin Boy.

Thing is Commentator would be bet. Wanderin Boy might actually go off at a price. So as a fan I'd love to see Commentator in this field, as a bettor I'm liking Wanderin Boy here.

Yeah, I just don't know if he's good enough, but we'll see.

Screw Curlin, I'm excited to see my boy DFC!

Wouldn't be the first time I've lost money being convinced that Wanderin Boy can steal a race ('06 JCGC). At least this time it's only 9 furlongs. I'll back it up with Curlin/Wanderin Boy/whoever tris if the price is right on Wanderin Boy.

I think you guys might be confusing this year's Wanderin Boy with the horse from the last couple years.

His comeback race was in the slop and then his allowance earlier in the Saratoga meet was impressive. He was never that good to begin with and I don't see much to make me believe he is any different this year than he has been.

Dr. D.F.C ..... uh huh :rolleyes:

glad to see Curlin has some workout partners, didn't think this field was gonna be over 5

-bt-

Ass horses don't seem to be running insane lately, so I wouldn't expect Curlin to run like he's juiced out of his mind.

Then again, I'm not sure it matters.

I think Loose Leaf is more deserving of a key to the city than Curlin is, at least based on his resume here. What has Curlin ever done here to deserve a key? He has no ties to here. Give Loose Leaf the key.

no PP's in front of me, but in a field like this, wouldn't you consider Divine Park also as part of the speed equation?

The Wanderin Boy of 2006 could wire this field and it wouldnt be much of a surprise. But the current version of Wanderin Boy? That would be a surprise. Divine Park and Loose Leaf will be tought to stop in the stretch.

Odds on Out of Control scratching?

If I am not mistaken Loose Leaf ran a great race a couple weeks ago at Toga winning at decent odds against some decent company. The ole line "Horse For The Course" logic may be in place and work? I gotta grab the form tomorrow and maybe make a play at lunch from work on Saturday when I see a ML at 15-1 on a good horse.

Pace scenario is very evident based on the entries, and as said if Curlin sees a bit of trouble..............

I can't see Divine Park pressing Wanderin Boy early, he's going to be more converned with where Curlin is. Past the Point seems more likely to be second early and he doesn't have the speed to push Wanderin Boy without destroying the slim chances he has.

Loose Leaf is a nice horse and loves it up here. I think he deserves a key to the city.

just pulled up the pp's, Pass The Point pressing Wanderin Boy? you'll have to point me to the race where he has shown that kind of speed.
On the other hand, Divine Park can easily cruise on the front end with WB.

to answer your first question, no I don't think WB can steal it.

Isn't that exactly what I said? That he figures to sit second early but doesn't have the speed to push Wanderin Boy. I don't think they will put Divine Park near the front. I think the last thing they want to do is duel with Wanderin Boy and hand the race to Curlin.

I'll throw up if Divine Park wins.

The Bennyless Forego
 

No Benny. And what happened to Fabulous Strike? Looks like a marquee showdown between Tasteyville & Premium Wine. Give the winner a red carpet ride to the BC Sprint and the Eclipse Award.

9th (5:13) Forego S. (G1)

7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $250,000

2 First Defence Hill C 119 L
1 Forefathers Prado E S 117 L
3 Eternal Star Velazquez J R 117 L
4 Bold Start Albarado R J 117 L
1A Ferocious Fires Velasquez C 117 L
5 Premium Wine Leparoux J R 117 L
6 Real Estate Coa E M 117 L
7 Lucky Island (ARG) Garcia Alan 121 L
8 Greeley's Conquest Chavez J F 117 L
9 Tasteyville Luzzi M J 117 L

A-Coupled: Forefathers and Premium Wine

It's a marquee showdown between two horses who got dusted by Lucky Island?

The race has no stars, but it at least looks like a good betting affair.

Tasteyville?

I hope you're joking.

I havent seen the PPs yet but Premium Wine ran a dapper dandy up here 2 weeks ago and Tasteyville is tough on his day. Then again if Mcglaughlin can get drop downs like Caesar Beware and Stream of Gold to win like they were Lures, he can get this piece up too.

Tasteyville has been out of the money in all three starts at Toga. IF he wins you'll have to back up the brinks truck at your house.

He has been eating too much ice cream....

LOL, nothing I bet could possibly win at any price. This is the worst meet I have ever been part of by a lot. I couldnt even get Indyanne to come close to winning. Its been pretty awful here.

Should I take one more stab or just call it quits and wait for next year?

I don't get this at all.

I thought both of them were good bet againsts. They both ran like they werent. I was wrong. Thats all.

I don't get why Divine Park, who has more speed than Wanderin Boy, in a race that lacks a lot of speed, would consider throttling back, behind such slow horses as Pass The Point. I can't see Divine Park any further back then second by a length, and wouldn't be shocked to see him set the fractions.

The only other time Divine Park went two turns, he went directly to the lead. But this isnt a five horse AOC at the Big A inner. Why would they risk dueling it out with Wanderin Boy and setting it up for Curlin? It seems like Divine Park is quite tractable (wanderin boy doesnt seem so) and it seems he runs pretty well coming from a few lengths back of the pace.

Sorry to say but i dont think Wanderin boy can steal it. He just isnt classy enough and it seems that extra turn and the better horses always end up getting the better of him. No knock on Wanderin Boy though.

I look at things a little differently from what others have said after his Met Mile win, Divine Park is obviously a better horse as a 4 yr old and he gives himself good trips. I wonder why do people knock him for that? He has won races on the lead, from just off the pace, and from off the pace. That's called versatility. I'm sure he's not going to be any great value on Saturday but he will atleast be in the 2/1 range with Curlin as the deserving heavy favorite. I know Curlin's last race was on turf and perhaps that is a reason why he only ran good/okay but I don't know I didn't really like his effort. If Curlin's 3/5 and Divine Park is 2/1 I think that's a great price differential to take Divine Park. On this track tactical speed is a major plus and right now I'm a believer in Divine Park. I don't think Mclaughlin would have bothered entering him if he didn't think he would run big Sat or get the 1 1/8.

On another note the bigger question is why did Frankel barring a late scratch enter Out of Control? Not like him to take on an overwhelming favorite like Curlin. Makes you think.

BTW to answer the topic question, anything is possible Wanderin Boy can lead this field a long way.

I would be.

[quote=CSC]I look at things a little differently from what others have said after his Met Mile win, Divine Park is obviously a better horse as a 4 yr old and he gives himself good trips. Why knock him for that? He has won races on the lead, from just off the pace, and from off the pace. That's called versatility. I'm sure he's not going to be any great value on Saturday but he will atleast be in the 2/1 range with Curlin as the deserving heavy favorite. I know Curlin's last race was on turf and perhaps that is a reason why he only ran good/okay but I don't know I didn't really like his effort. If Curlin's 3/5 and Divine Park is 2/1 I think that's a great price differential to take Divine Park. On this track tactical speed is a major plus and right now I'm a believer in Divine Park. I don't think Mclaughlin would have bothered entering him if he didn't think he would run big Sat or get the 1 1/8.

On another note the bigger question is why did Frankel barring a late scratch enter Out of Control? Not like him to take on an overwhelming favorite like Curlin. Makes you think.

Because he is training well (on dirt) and he needs to run him somewhere. Hes already here and he could easily take a big piece of this big purse. He was to run in the Sword Dancer but got sick. I dont blame him for taking a shot.

I would be stunned if Wanderin Boy was not on the lead and most likely it will be all by himself. Still doesnt make me want to play him.

I would be surprised also, one thing to look for is the jock Leparioux is not likely to fire a horse out of the gate unless he gets instructions to do so. If Leparioux decides to sit he may try to rate, however that last bullet work on WB's worktab signals a speed try.

[quote=Gander]Yeah I completely understand your point, most trainers yes, however it's still just not like Frankel to run for a piece of the purse. The guy scratches more horses to avoid losing than just about any other trainer in racing today.