8/6: Saratoga (Week 3; Day 1)
 

Taking a breather Sunday paid off handsomely Monday with hits in the large, interesting early P4 of $455; chalky late quad of $113 (hit twice with SCR for $226); a pair of P6 consolations ($431 back on $288 play) and big exacta ($85) and trifecta scores ($405) in the Hall of Fame thanks to "Exotics Use" Thou Swell (20-1+). The early P4 featured 10-1+ bookends starting with Asmussen's crazily overlaid Warm Country, but the mutuel was muted by the desperate dead heat between Skipadate and Ninth Client in the 5th. The quartet was scheduled to pay $750+ ($1) but came back at $455 which at least meant avoiding the IRS window. Hope you did well.


Terrible weather forecast in store the next several days... Even with rain likely to ebb this afternoon, OFF THE TURF is likely...


SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST SRATCHES

1st: CLM/N2L, 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Fly the North Wind 3-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Clay County 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Know the Game 5-2 3rd


2nd: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Westward Go 7-2 4th
Best Value: #2 Al Sheetahn 12-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Coastal Flare 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Exchanging Kisses 5-2 WON


3rd: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Strand of Gold 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Quiet Mover 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 Streetprice 20-1 6th


4th: MSW, 3+, 11f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Good Request 8-5 WON
Best Value: #4 Sol a Pino 8-1 4th
Next Best: #1e Voss entry 6-1 5th/9th


5th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 True Ally 5-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Buzzin and Dreamin 12-1 4th
Next Best: #8 That's a Good Thing 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Retriever 10-1 9th


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 2-4-5-7-10
3: 2-5
4: 9
5: 2-6-7-8-9

5x2x1x5 = $50


6th:NYB-MSW, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Driven by Success 3-1 WON
Next Best: #2 El Tamberito 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 New York Style 8-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Fourteen and Out 20-1 6th


7th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 SCR (SCR add #8 Zensational 7-2) 4th
Best Value: #10 Royal Vindication 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Speed Limit 5-1 2nd
Super Use: #4 Winthrop House 3-1 5th


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Roll the Di 5-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Belle's Home 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Nehantic Cat 5-1 WON
Super Add: #10 Follow My Dream 10-1 4th


9th: Cab Calloway, NYB-3yo, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Cannonball 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #3 Gold Vendetta 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Phobia 12-1 7th

OFF THE TURF: 1a-5-8


10th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Conduct of Honor 15-1 8th
Best Value: #5 Calagaitor 8-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Iron Curtain 9-5 3rd
Super Add: #3 In the Spotlight 12-1 9th


<$75 P4 Play:

AFTER SCRATCHES..

7: 4-6-8-10
8: 1-3-5-8-10
9: 1
10: 2-3-4-5

4x5x1x4 = $80


Good luck!
Steve

How bad did it rain overnight there?

FYI - Not that you used him off the turf, but talked with Hibiscus this morning and Iron Curtain is a definate scratch if/when taken off -

Not bad. They're on the turf.

Question for the pro.. What are your thoughts on the quality of the last 3 cards at the spa? I can't recall 6 maiden races in a row...

I think Know The Game will be tough in the 1st, but does the Contessa horse have a shot on the stretchout as the pacemaker? This race is crying out for someone to be on the lead.

all the races or just the feature?

Not much at all but the majority of the rain is coming very soon.

I don't know.....I honestly focus less on that than most people. I think there is a misconception by many people of the overall quality of racing anywhere these days. I wouldn't have even noticed there were six straight maiden races if you hadn't mentioned it. I'm more focused on handicapping the races, forming opinions, and finding bets. I have bets in the two turf maiden races, I suppose the big favorite ( Quiet Mover ) is close to a cinch in the 3rd, and the likely second choice ( Driven by Success ) should win the 6th. As for the 2YO races.....that's what we have at Saratoga.

The 8th is an extremely interesting race.

Sunday's card was weak early and extremely strong late. Considering we are running 62 races a week ( as opposed to 46 or 47 downstate ) things are pretty good.

I don't get it.

I just laid a price we will remain fast and firm all day.

Thanks.

The question was are ALL the turf races still on, or just the feature. Sometimes they take all the turf races off except the stakes race.

But I said they were on the turf....how could that mean races were off the turf?

I don't understand.

See above. Wasn't sure you meant "they" as all the turf races or not.

I'm just kidding with you.

However, if I say the races are on the turf I mean they are all on. If some are off I would say so.

True that. I'm trying to pare that leg down to 4 and would not at all be suprised to see Party Girl win this at a very square number

Is there any chance Nehantic Kat goes off 4/1 or higher?

I don't get it. :p

Dan

I'd like to get Party Girl into my plays as well. Looking for a scratch or 2 to change the equation but I'm including her in the multis.

I'm guessing post time fav, Coach. Either the oddsmaker of the morning line is on a black tar heroin high, or I'm completely dumfounded...the best horse in the race is 15-1

Good call! I was wrong and gladly now I can get my miles in outside and not on a treadmil. Have a nice day!

The 8th is fascinating, I'm pretty sure the 2,7,9,11 can't win but everybody else is eligible. I like Steve's "most likely" as well, her last two were visually impressive. Seems like she's finally figured it out since moving back to turf.

Big Flirt is scratched in the 7th. . . what a shame, as it doesn't get more high-percentage than a Ward/Mach Uno first timer.

Not so sure the 2 can't win... 2,3,8 on my P4/P3 ticket.

With the perfect trip Quiet Alice could win. Don't think the right jock is on her this time to achieve that, however.

I think the 2 and 11 could both win and the 7 isn't totally hopeless.

Personally, my only 'X' in the race is the 9.. Load up, people.

Took her 12 tries to break her maiden. She ran and hid in her last, but look at how long it took them to get home that day- :38 3/5 from the 3/8ths pole and the rest of them looked like they were towing plows.

FYI- I was at CD that day and while the turf was listed as 'good' they were getting over it fine.

(of the two that won those split divisions that day My Little Dragon, the 7 today was much better)

Slight adjustments post-scratches...

P4 thoughts:


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 2-4-5-7-10
3: 2-5
4: 9
5: 2-6-7-8-9

5x2x1x5 = $50


@$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-6-8-10
8: 1-3-5-8-10
9: 1
10: 2-3-4-5

4x5x1x4 = $80

Jay..

Alice scares the crap out of me there too... It's a terrific race and it seems to be the key to the late action.

My quick take:


1 and 3 are classic bounce candidates and the rail especially hurts the 1
2 definately has a shot from just off
4 no
5 experience going 1 1/4 with a nice figure
classic C. Hill ride forced 7 wide and still only missed by 2.5 last
draws Kent D. - Upset winner
6 Scratched
7 loves 2 turns on the grass, has a pace advantage laying off
8 Very logical off the pace play should be pt fav
9 no
10 wins were soft, both alw wins were with Desormeux in the irons and he chooses the 5 instead
11 solid figs but post dooms her first shot at winners

5/2,7,8 ex box

Can we all agree that the M/L on the 5 is ridiculous and she'll probably end up off at 6-1 or 7-1?

Only at Saratoga could a Asmussen get away at odds like 7.50-1 and win! (I didn't have it.. didn't bet. Just making an observation)