the sharpness of ny summer bettors
 

i tell ya its hard to get any prices at saratoga,the bettors and the whole nation is tuned in to it..some angles that were just easy money in the past have bene negated to a chalk..the age of information had really hit hard as of late..i mean guys in the early 90s should have been fng wheelbarrowing the cash in on stuff they did on thier own/ figs and trainer patterns..now its old hat and easily done.. i think the ny summer crowd is a tough capping adventure..hell mrs grabowski can out capp half the people i know...

Saratoga Tilt
 

Well Said, everyone is chasing that same "now horse". When you find the 4 and 5 to 1's, take it and run with it...............

Alot of this is the devaluing of prices by the Sheets and TGH. About a month ago at Belmont I had a nice sheet exacta that was something like 7-1/9/2. It paid 50 bucks for 2 bucks. Both horses were TGH plays and just got pounded in combinations. It's really difficult to get prices in New York.

I've been getting killed at the Spa this summer, but I disagree with pretty much everything said in this thread so far.

Couldn't agree more....just too sophisticated. There is tons of "unsophisticated" money plowed into the pools at Del Mar. Folks are just happy to smell that sea air, look at the scenery, and blow their money at the track while pounding Coronas or Cuervo. The guaranteed pick 4's on the weekend provide lots of big money opps!

is it the bettors or level of competition. They have carry overs in California constantly. You don't mean to say it's because the New York bettor only likes ny tracks and doesn't like cal :$:

What's the average payoff in NY? $5 :wf

It's both. As mentioned in other threads, there is no doubt which circuit is more competitive. I am fortunate enough to spend time at both places. The Northeast crowd, in my opinion, approaches the wagering with far more due dilligence and overall knowledge. I'm not detracting from the group of west coast players that take the same workman like approach. It's just apparent to this observer that it's much more abundant at The Spa. A large percentage of the attendees at Del Mar spend their morning on the beach, not in front of the screen looking at Formulator. These folks have lots of :$: Many of them, again my opinion, are just happy to be there and anxious to be in action. On the NY bettor question, I think logistics come into play. Del Mar starts at 5pm Eastern and 7pm on Friday's. Not that folks can't play with their NYRA accounts, but one would assume the Saratoga players regroup, go out, handicap for the next day, etc.

First time Lion Hearts are money... Other than that good luck

mrs grabowski is damn good ask byk...

yes but that may be nothing nothing new.. in a nice way..

Half?! She's a machine.. I'd take her over 90% of the 'cappers I know.

Saratoga, 80 races, 13.79 ave win mutuel, ave field size 8.21
Belmont, 535 races, 11.60 ave win mutuel

DelMar, 113 races, 14.29 ave win mutuel, ave field size 8.48
Holly, 522 race, 13.21 ave win mutuel

thanks a j can you break down the pick /3/4s

just read last night that del mar may have to reduce purses. fields sizes and handle both down.

also, what's the avg for the above at arl park?

that's interesting. Can you do the average pick 6

I think you're going to find handle down everywhere, due to the economy. I know saratoga is down already, although some of that might be due to weather.

Arlington
585 races, ave win mutuel $12.99, ave field size 8.36

5+5+5+5+5+5+5+5+5+80 = $12.50 average payout:p

no, i don't have the exotic data.

Great stuff, can you run the median on these? I think that might be an enlightening statistic.

median win mutuel

Saratoga $8.95
DelMar $9.60

Any way to factor out off the turf races?

It just seems that exactas and tri's, P3's and P4's pay more lucratively in So Cal. It may be related to pool sizes of exotics which are clearly different in P6's. All I know is I rarely look at a New York cashed ticket as being more than expected but have that happen regularly in So Cal...of course I think I am better at California racing for whatever reason..

nope, off the turf just becomes a dirt race.

i can tell you that on fast tracks at Saratoga the ave mutuel is $13.71 and for everything other than fast its $12.68

Thanks, Jim. . . That database of yours is pretty cool.

and you back out Cat/Cal??

I know...not real, but that number would be amazing

Del Mar
 

Today's Pick 4 was a perfect example of what I mentioned in a previous post. You arguably had 2 singles on the last 2 legs. Zenyatta at $3.20 and Chanjo $4.80. The fist leg was a 2yo maiden race that had a 28 dollar winner. Could have used 5 or 6 horses in the baby race. The 2nd leg produced a $9.80 horse who was second choice in the large field. The ticket paid $321 for a dollar!!! The pool had 760k. What would similar prices pay in NY? $140 for a dollar?

I'm still trying to figure out what happened in today's 6th at SAR.

3rd choice over the 8th choice in a 9 horse field pays $74?:zz:

that's 3:1 over a 22:1

I realize that Tea with the Tiger has a reputation as a hanger and people are probably using him for 2nd with the choices (probably not, actually).

With a $28 horse, you really think it was going to pay $140 for $1 anywhere?

[quote=asudevil]Today's Pick 4 was a perfect example of what I mentioned in a previous post. You arguably had 2 singles on the last 2 legs. Zenyatta at $3.20 and Chanjo $4.80. The fist leg was a 2yo maiden race that had a 28 dollar winner. Could have used 5 or 6 horses in the baby race. The 2nd leg produced a $9.80 horse who was second choice in the large field. The ticket paid $321 for a dollar!!! The pool had 760k. What would similar prices pay in NY? $140 for a dollar?[/QUOTE)

Exactly......Playing the first timers who worked well in the 6th, the closers in the 6.5F claimer, Zenatta and the horse who was touted to have gone 10 seconds and change for the last 8th in the most recent workout still got you decent return.

I was disappointed with the payoff for the P3 that ended with the 8th.

$19.80/$28.40/$9.80 gets you $583.40 after being spoiled by the $12.20/$19.80/$28.40 which brought in $1374.50. The 3 dollar difference in the cheapest price tripled return. Somehow you feel ripped off with the $593. Foolish I realize....but seems like there should have been more than what came back. At least the taxman didn't chew on this one..

In New York these prices would be fractions for some reason...

[quote=docicu3]skimming