8/1: Saratoga (Day 9)
 

Bit of a ho-hum afternoon at the Spa Thursday with the early Pick 4 running the streak to 3 straight though the skien was chalky again ($175.00). Plenty of winners identified Thursday and few exotic supporters, so it's good that I've been focused on the multi-race wagering... Realization also set Thursday while looking at Friday's races, that the week's cards have not been very inspiring from a quality standpoint. Hope that changes for the weekend, though Friday offers some interesting value-laden horses, and I hope you did well yesterday!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 SEEING CLEARLY 6-1 2nd
Most Likely: #3 Panthera Tigre 5-2 WON
Next Best: #8 I'llthinkofsomethin 3-1
Super Add: #7 Whisper Alley 5-1


2nd: CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 And a Cherry Tree 5-2
Next Best: #7 Hope Street 4-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Unicorn Girl 8-1


3rd: NYB-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 AFLEET AYA 1-1
Best Value: #1 SCR
Next Best: #7 Judiciary 5-1


4th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 SEASTATE 5-1
Best Value: #4 A Wild Minute 20-1
Next Best: #8 Beyond the Trees 5-2
Exotics Add: #1e Rice Entry 2-1 WON


5th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Royal Ridge 3-1
Best Value: #4 Arcaro 20-1
Next Best: #8 Halton 5-1 WON
Super Add: #9 Repenthouse 6-1


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-4-7
3: 3
4: 1-2-4-8
5: 4-5-8-9

CORE: 4x1x1x1 = 4 X $4 = $16
BACKUP: 4x1x4x4 = $56
TOTAL: $72


6th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Final Refrain 12-1 WON
Most Likely: #4 Jiboom 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Prianca 4-1 (Replaces SCR #7)
Super Add: #3 Queen Joanne 9-2


7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Holla Bend 5-2 WON
Best Value: #7 SCR
Next Best: #8 Clemens 4-1
Super Add: #6 Bang Bang Bang 6-1


8th: The Majestic Light, 3yo, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Halo Najib 10-1
Most Likely: #3 Golden Weekend 3-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Prussian 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Russian Sage 15-1 3rd


9th: 17th Honorable Miss H. (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Miss Macy Sue 3-1
Best Value: #6 Graeme Six 9-2
Next Best: #3 Zada Belle 5-2


10th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Sweet Slam 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Fair Game 5-1
Next Best: #8 Here Comes Rita 7-2 WON
Super Add: #10 The Ag 4-1


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-6-8
8: 2-3
9: 1-3-5-6
10: 3-8-9

3x2x4x3 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

I like several long shots today. I never have given picks for a full card here so this will be my 1st time--yeah, no longer a virgin.

Race 1
#1 - Classic Love.

Race 2
#5 - Sunday Sarah.

Race 3
#5 - Cat Radio.

Race 4
#9 - Qualified to Kill

Race 5
#6 - D' Wildcard

Race 6
#4 - Jibboom

Race 7
#9 - Soony's The One

Race 8
#7 - Prussian

Race 9
#3 - Zada Bell

Race 10
#5 - Time To Win

I will have $10 to win on each of those horses - $100
$1 Pick 4's
3-4-5/3-4-5/8-9/5-6 - $36
2-4-9/7/1-3-4-5-6/1-3-4-6-10 - $75

Modest changes again.. Selection changes reflected..

Good luck today to all...

GL to all who play today

Race 1 $5 Tri
1)5
2)3,7,8
3)1,3,4,7,8

$60

Race 1 $5 Pick 3
1)5
2)2,3,4,7
3)3,8

$40

Race 2 $2 Pick 4
2)3,4,7
3)3,8
4)1,2,8
5)5,8,9

$108 $2332

If theres ever a couple of races to go against the favorites I believe its the 8th and 9th races. Both look very vunerable

I can certainly understand that notion. And I agree to a point. I don't like either of those races. I would normally sit those races (8 and 9) out, but this might be the only time I get to wager on the full card.

Guess I am not alone on the 1 at Saratoga. Bet down to 7/2 from 8-1.

If the turf plays like it has been (retribution arrgghh), then Prussian is certianly a play against.

What kills me about Zada Belle is that they normally rip the good horses away from Hardy and give them to the sheik. But since when does a horse that walks over optional 35k claimers deserve to be taken away and thrown into a stake race as the morning line favorite? Especially when she got trounced in her only graded race.

Steve....
 

Man I was with you on Seeing Clearly, we needed one more jump! Good second.

I don't like Zada Belle and am leaning towards Graeme Six & Miss Macy, but wasn't that race over Keeneland's poly?

I love Graeme Six in the race. Handle Miss Macy Sue in her last even though Sue was off a little slow. But I like the stalking position she'll be in racing from the outside.

You talking about Keenlands Poly for the Belle race. It was but she also won over SA poly in an opt. claimer.

I wouldn't be totally surprised to see Any Limit steal it. Hoping Zada Belle keeps her honest up front..

EQUIBASE MISTAKE: Race 2

They list the 3 Casino Kay as 6 dirt races and 2 wins and a third where in fact those were all on the SYNTHETIC at HOL and SA...can we get correct info PLEASE?

also the 7 is listed as 5 dirt races where he only ran 3 dirt races...do they consider the plastic stuff dirt? They also list all weather so why list them as dirt? :evil:

race 2 pic 4: 7/3-7/2-4-8-9/2-5-8

hmmmmmmmm 1/9 on a 35k maiden claimer. Looks the best but who would risk that much money on this type of race. Im seeing flashbacks of Monmouth last Sat. in that stellar 3 horse field they had. Horse went off 1/9 and got blown by in the stretch. Nothing makes me feel better then seeing them go down and watching the look on all the chalk betters faces after they lost their money on them.

RULE EFFING 1... Never single an odds on favorite in a Maiden claimer...
Rule 2 See Rule 1..

That hurts

hmmmmmmmmmm

Malek's horse is 4-1 right now. . . hmmm.

Im a work also, someone give us the stretch call

4-Calling my Colors and 3-Afleet Aya battled the whole way. 3-Afleet Aya hung and could'nt get by but alas 8-Weekwee piloted by the great Samyn nips em both very late.... At that point I punched out my monitor and did not see who placed.

It's raining here....again. :mad:

taking a Trifecta stab in race 4... $2

2/4,8/1,4,8,9

1,9/2/4,8

4,8/1,9/2

$28 total

:( one more... race 5...$2

5/4,8/3,4,8,9,11
3,9/5/4,8
4,8/3,9,11/5

:$: = $36

Very nice hit.

oh well, I'm out.

Thanks:D

Lava has hit like seven pick fours this week. A few have been chalky, but it's still pretty remarkable.

Before i bet on retribution yesterday, Ateam commented that the turf had been playing against speed. After watching that loss (still hurts) i went back and looked at the charts and found he might have a point.

Either way, I have no strong feelings.

In routes, speed has been getting killed for the most part. Might be a coincidence, but something I noticed.

Isn't speed inherently up against it in turf routes anyway?

Playing on... $2 Tri

4/1,8/1,3,5,8

1,3,5,8/4/1,8

1,3,5,8/1,8/4

:$: = $36

Inherently yes.

out west? It seems its easier to win on the lead out there than any place else when on the turf.

In the east it seems to depend on the horse and the way the track is playing.


By the way, i like the 8 in the 6th race to at least hit the board at 8-1.

Yeah, but even the horses who've gotten away with murder are backing up.

I'm talking strictly about the last two days. Like I said, it could be a coincidence, but it's something I noticed. Either way, I'd bet a closer in the eighth considering how much speed there is in the race.

Wow, that means I'm only down like........ uh 7.

Nice work Lava.