FINALLY: a good match up-- the Virginia Derby
 

Once upon a time there'd be plenty of competitive turf races. Now, we settle for the precious few a year.

Sailor's Cap vs. Gio Ponti.

who and who?

Maybe you are just joking, but in case you aren't....

Gio Ponti won the Hill Prince at Belmont with a very nice late move.
Sailor's Cap followed up a good second to Tizdejavu at CD with a very big race in the Colonial Turf Cup where he won by 6+ lengths.

It is an interesting matchup, and I hope they both go to Chicago next and square off with Tizdejavu again in the Secretariat.

Can Gio Ponti get a mile and a quarter off the mile effort? He's by Tale of the Cat. Not the most likely sire of long distance grass runners. Is Sailor's Cap a soft track move-up? I give El Sultry Sun a shot at 10-1 along with Old Man Buck at 5-1. They'll be the ones I play in the back end of my pick 3.

Think I am sticking with Bucky!!

race watchers?
 

worth reading anything into Gio Ponti switching to the left lead late in the hillprince mile?

The CNL Turf Cup was an oddly run race in my opinion.

It was a soft turf course and the front runner who was 7 lengths ahead of the field was leading in times of :51, 1:18, 1:45 so yet he folds real bad and closers cruise on by. Is this common at CNL?

There is not much speed today and looks to be a firm ground. I am looking for Court Vision to change tactics today and take the lead and TRY to hang on.

Do you remember the '06 Colonial Turf Cup with a headstrong horse by the name of Kip Deville?

That's beside the point though. Who knows how quick those fractions really were considering the ground? And that race was all about who could handle the marsh.. Tactics meant very little, IMO.

On another note, I continue to be surprised that Court Vision backers still exist.

Not really a backer of his but with MOTT/Desourmeaux and IEAH as his conncections. 10-1 is not a bad shot to play him. His first shot at turf was on soft and now he has firm. why not?

He's proven to be slow. What difference does it make who owns/trains/rides a proven slow horse? Are they suddenly going to make him fast after all of this time?

Generally if the best case you can make for a horse is that they're owned, trained or ridden by someone successful, (unless they're a first-time starter) that's probably a good indication that the horse sucks.

:confused:

Connections matter a lot when it comes to big money races. There are reasons why the same people win the big races.

Why do they matter so much? What are IEAH/Mott/Desormeaux going to do with Court Vision to suddenly make him fast? It's not as if he just got transferred to Mott. He's had him all along, and the horse is still slow. What difference do the connections make at this point?

I guess people who bet Frost Giant in the Suburban bet him based on his name

Huh??? Nobody bet him. The horse paid $82. Way to answer the question by the way.

Court Vision did finish last did he not? He is damn slow. They should retire him. You were right ATEAM.

He ran fine, better than I thought he would. Your logic is still ass-backwards and you still can't defend the things you say.

My point was the connections won the race. It was not as if he had tremendous class

Really? It had nothing to do with the fact that the field was absolutely terrible? It was entirely IEAH and Dutrow's doing? That's interesting (read: mind-numbingly ignorant) reasoning.

Take a seat my friend. Ran fine my ass!!!! Props to Gomez however for winning. No one can beat gomez one on one.

Why in the hell do you think they put him in the suburban?????? BECAUSE the field was CRAP. They know how to pick thier spots. There was nothing on paper to even consider except only the fact that he was from IEAH/Dutrow

You're hopeless.

Yeah, it must've been that IEAH/Mott/Desormeaux 'tu ne sais quoi' that got him to run well today. Wonder why it waited all this time to have such a drastic effect.

Right. I'm sure you would've been saying the same thing about Pat Kelly had Naughty New Yorker won the race.

Blindly betting connections is a moron's strategy. Period.

I guess not.

When the horse is the superior horse, switching late in the previous race may not be a big deal?
Haven't seen the replay to see if Ponti did it again, but the Hill Prince was the only time he had done it previously.
I guess as I notice it more, I will form more of an opinion for this type of thing.

they put frost giant in the suburban as he had been doing better of late, the assistant trainer (and his jock that day in the race) had spent a lot of time with frost giant, and he seemed to be coming around. he's been referred to as a head case.
as an aside, dutrow admitted he didn't have a thin dime on frost giant that day-so that sort of throws your theory a bit.

Not to mention this quote from Dutrow that it was almost entirely Rudy Rodriguez that got the horse to do what he did:

"I just figured, what’s a mile going to do?” Dutrow said of his decision. “I could have just screwed him up if I tried it. For the last two or three weeks, this horse settled down in the mornings. This was mostly Rudy, not just today, but in the mornings."

I wonder if Rudy Rodriguez is included in those "big money connections" this dude values so much.

Who are you to call me a moron? The topic of this post about a match up between Gio Ponti and Sailors Cap. I merely introduced Court Vision as another contender. The field was not stellar in my opinion and to make a case based on connections is not a wild strategy. Mizzen Mast winning the Gold Cup had nothng to do with Frankel??? Mandella winning 4 BC races in 2003 was just coincidence???? You think blue collar trainer/owners win majority of G1 G2 races??? Think Again. The next time you bet the big races I suggest you have someone white-out all the trainer/owners/jockey so you can bet it based on figures alone. LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If a trainer doesnt bet on his horse is a sure sign the horse is not going to fire. He probaly ran him just for the excercise.

It really wouldn't be that difficult, though doing that wouldn't leave me with "figures alone."

People like you are the reason that underlays exist.

Good luck betting based just on figures and connections. You might as well pick the horse with the prettiest mane.

You are yesterdays handicapper. You are not with the times. Check out my posting: http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23944. See why I like Kilderry. Why do you think one trainer cant get a horse to walk but when he switches hands he is the next super horse. Who knows how they do it but they do it. I look at figures too but I have to put emphasis on his connections too.

THERE WAS NO TRAINER SWITCH WITH COURT VISION. Where the hell did I say that trainer switches don't have to be considered? You said that Court Vision was a good play because of his connections, and I pointed out how ridiculous that was considering that he's been with the same connections forever. Had he JUST BEEN SWITCHED to Mott, I would've agreed with you. But generally, connections mean next to nothing if it's the horse's ninth start with those connections. Your lack of comprehension is embarrassing.

It's downright hilarious that you call me "not with the times" when you admit to blindly betting connections, which may have been a relatively good strategy back BEFORE SPEED FIGURES WERE INVENTED.

Everybody know that if a horse switches connections, it is important to look at the barn switch for possible improvements. ateam already said that in this thread.
Court Vision definitely ran a pretty good race today (he beat my pick in Sailor's Cap) but that doesn't make you right in this particular discussion. Of course connections matter, but anyone that continues to bet horses in "big races" based solely on connections stands to lose in the long run. The past performances on the track are what matters the most.....by far.

Whos betting blindly? I played him because he has back class, will improve second off to top it off his connections did not give up on him and just drop him to some restricted stakes. He was a very good underlay (based on M/L). Looking for value unlike chalk players like yourself. I said to myself why not take a shot? If he had a little better trip he would have won the darn thing.

I want in your words....

....why you think court vision ran well today?? Yes he ran well, not just OK. Probably his best figure yet. You said he was slow and you said it had nothing to do with his connections. Must be an act of God. No other explanation right?

He's probably better on turf. It would've been hard for him to be worse on it than he was on dirt. I still don't think he's very good, and still find hilarious the theory that he ran well today because he's owned by IEAH.

I wasnt really a fan of his before but now I am. I hope he wins next out just to spite you ATEAM. Just Kidding!!

Heh, sounds healthy! :)

There are some real gems in here. . .

I saw the race but dont have the pps in front of me. is that the 2nd time that court vision ran on T? i was really impressed by his run today and was gonna bet him for fun but not at 5/2. REally liked the way he quickened sp? at the end. Good bit of race riding by Gomez thought it was kinda funny how both jocks talked about the running of the race and how it got a little rough. I thought a good run by court vision. I also have to admit that anytime frankle trains a horse for juddmonte (sp) farms i pay a little closer attention.

Personally I think that race will come back poorly. . . Gio Ponti didn't look that great and probably just won because he was the most talented - he's got more kick at a mile and 10F is stretching his pedigree - he should be shortened back up. Sailor's Cap is an OK horse but he's shown a definite affinity for soft turf.

If any of these horses run back in the Secretariat they'll get drowned by Tizdejavu and any Euros that come over.

not sure what your driving at... You must have had Sailors Cap