Fasig-Tipton July sale
 

7/14/09
Date......Sold..Amount...Average.. N/Sold...Median

7/14/08 142 13,311,000 93,739 112 75,000

7/16/07
Date Sold Amount Average N/Sold Median

7/16/07 178 15,826,000 88,910 89 75,000
from the bloodhorse...
John Fort, the president of Peachtree Racing Stable....
“The market seems really down,” Fort said. “Just sitting around watching horses sell, I see a lot of $20,000, $30,000, $40,000 horses. I’ve always felt like if you could afford to own a racehorse, you should be immune to little glitches in the economy. People who are sort of on the edge of an economy that might be fluctuating up or down shouldn’t be putting their money in racehorses.”

I guess he wants to see higher prices for the horses.

There were 25 bids below $20k, a couple of which were accepted. In other words of the 112 RNAs, about 87 had bids over $20k but failed to meet their reserve.

Edit: 3 out of 4 NY breds sold in the opening session. Hip #2 Closing Argument/Madison Dollie colt $80,000, #20 Medaglia D'Oro/Miss Mary filly $115,00, #48 RNA ($67K) Saint Liam/Prairie Princess filly, #169 Purge/Bedside Manner filly $100,000. 3 NY head remain for tomorrow's session.

John's a buyer so he'd rather see a more stable, realistic market. However, I think he touched upon an interesting point.

So, the average was up 5%. Means nothing. Easily distorted. The median was the same and the buybacks were up about 33%!!! That says something about the state of the market. But John's point is interesting in that all these horses selling for $20k and $40k -- there isn't a market for many of these horses. There should be, but there isn't.

I look at the 2yo in training sales and I wonder -- who is making money selling $20k to $50k 2yo's? Answer -- nobody.

Eric

Maybe Fort should organize a separate sale for decent pedigrees, that isn't watered down with all these $20,000 dollar pedigrees?

Are you saying this is a pin hooking sale ? That there are not buyers looking to race their purchase ?

the pedigrees that had caught my eye in catalogue and results:

hip SIRE/DAM price
BUYER

57 GRAND REWARD/QUIET MISS 60,000
C BALLINSWOOD SALES KENNETH L & SARAH K RAMSEY

71 LEROIDESANIMAUX (BRZ)/RUNAWAY ROYALTY 45,000
F TAYLOR MADE SALES AGENCY, SUNRISE STABLE SOUTH, AGENT
AGENT LXXX

127 ROCK HARD TEN/TO THE RAINBOW (FR) 50,000
C HOPEWELL FARM LLC AGENT V FOUR DIAMONDS PINHOOKING, AGT

136 GRAND REWARD/TURK MACHINE 95,000
C EQUUS FARM (JERRY CUMMINS/ TODD QUAST, AGENT
PAUL ADAMS), AGENT

236 SPEIGHTSTOWN/ENGLAND'S ROSE 170,000
F TAYLOR MADE SALES AGENCY, HARTLEY-DERENZO THOROUGHBREDS
AGET XCVII


339 STORMY ATLANTIC/MISS LUCY 52,000
C BRANDYWINE FARM, AGENT RANDY MILES BLOODSTOCK
FOR LIBERATION FARM ET AL 377 KAFWAIN/RIFFLE 70,000
C MILLENNIUM FARMS AGENT II GULF COAST FARM

390NOT SOLD


396 MACHO UNO/SNOW FLOWER 135,000
C CROWNING POINT FARM, AGENT MIKE RYAN, AGENT

397 - OUT -

513 GULCH/EVANGEL 30,000
F BILL REIGHTLER, AGENT JAMES J. SMITH, AGENT

There were about 24 RNAs below $20k.
There were 55 RNAs between $20k and $50k, = 79 RNAs out of 112 total head not sold were under $50K.
There were 33 RNAs over $50k today of which 4 RNAs were over $100k; 1 Alfeet Alex, 1 Grand Reward, and 2 Roman Rulers.

edit...numbers may not be precise but they are darn close.

Thanks for the breakdown. 2/3's of your buybacks were under $50k, and another 25% between 50k and 100k. Just look at the marketplace. You have a hot horse, at the top of the market -- yes, the right people will be "on him" (or her). The low to middle market is hurting. This will spill over, or will be the spill over, to the remainder of the marketplace and industry.

Eric

There are plenty of people to buy those $40000 horses but not many sellers willing to let them go for that. I will never understand the logic that it is somehow the buyers fault that the sellers arent realistic with prices.

Cannon I was just starting to wonder that myself. It seems to me there was money there for that middle market and lower middle market. The bids were made on all the horses. The sellers wanted more.

I can understand the dissapointment below $20k (about 23% of the RNAs) but over that seems like reasonable bids.

5 hips tied for lowest bid of $10k each. Each was an RNA.

If your horse doesnt bring 20k in this sale you either have a physical issue or really bad judgement on what your horse is worth.

hey do the higher# hips from the catalogue go at a later date? or what i am i missing?

-Edit Cool

tomorrow

The lowest priced hip to sell was #30 $15,000.
http://www.fasigtipton.com/catalogs/2008/0714/30.pdf
Next was hip # 189 at $17k. These were the only 2 to sell for less than $20k.
http://www.fasigtipton.com/catalogs/2008/0714/189.pdf

And Cannon Shell's monster #130 sold for $90k.

That's the problem with the marketplace, vis a vis an inefficient market. Everyone would like to believe it's an efficient market, but far too many sellers turn deaf ears to the reality. There will be a major fallout, a market correction so to speak, and we'll see a cleansing of the market.

Unfortunately, like you said, there aren't sellers to accomodate that part of the market. All the sellers are looking to sell big money horses. There are only so many sellers and horses who can deliver the product that the top end buyers are looking for.

More importantly, in today's market -- today -- who new has come to the table to play the game at that level? Interesting observation. You see a Bob Lewis pass away, Sanan back off, a friction between Coolmore and Darley/Godolphin/et al, Melnyk back off, and so on. A new player comes along -- like Einsidler -- plays a bit and then backs off. Zayat comes along, plays in the big leagues, but not enough to make up for the losses. For the few truly hot horses -- there are just a few major players. The rest of the market is weak due to the sellers, the economics, etc.

Eric

Dead on. Like I said, when I go to the 2yo sales and I see horse after horse selling for $20k to $50k (from $10k and $20k stallions), it just makes you sit back and wonder. Haven't the sellers learned anything yet? Just look at what it takes to get a horse from yearling to the starting gate, or from yearling to the 2yo sale.

Eric

Date Sold Amount Average N/sold Median

7/14/08 142 13,311,000 93,739 112 75,000

7/15/08 163 14,840,000 91,043 81 75,000

Totals 305 28,151,000 92,298 193 75,000



Date Sold Amount Average N/sold Median

7/16/07 178 15,826,000 88,910 89 75,000

7/17/07 176 20,615,000 117,131 78 90,000

Totals 354 36,441,000 102,941 167 80,000
2nd session numbers:
8 head RNA less than $20k.
33 RNA $20 - $50k.
32 RNA $51k - $100k.
8 RNA over $100k including hip #509 RNA $325k http://www.fasigtipton.com/catalogs/2008/0714/509.pdf

The 2nd session RNAs were about evenly split at $50k. The first session saw 2/3 of RNAs under $50k. So the 2nd session saw higher priced RNAs.

NYbreds today: #469 More Than Ready/Bronze Autumn-Mr Greeley filly OUT, #546 Dixie Union-Kings Fancy colt $150k, #555 Grand Slam/Lemon Tart colt $123k.

Lowest priced hip #319 filly sold for $11k http://www.fasigtipton.com/catalogs/2008/0714/319.pdf

another question:
how do we track these guys later on with reference to their hip# or pedigree?

THANKS= witchdoctor sumitas

I believe brisnet.com has produce records by mare, etc. for a price.

You can go to Breederscup.com and put in the dam's name and the year of birth to get the name of the horse. Then just follow them on DRF or BRIS stablemail.

Yeah, bids were made on all of the horses. But who were placing the bids.???

The million dollar question! Or in this case the $10,000 question? LOL.

Whenever I try and buy a horse that went RNA -- the mystery is always "where was the last live bid"

I had one in the Keeneland sale and I am telling you, there was one live bid other than my own from $45k all the way to $65k. I was very thankful there was at least one buyer there. Of course it can be a totally different story when there is no live bid. A seller, consignor, anyone can bid it up themselves to create the after-sale market.

Bottom line -- I think below $100k, this market will take a major hit.

Eric

How many of the horses sold at this sale will actually race for the current new owner ? I have no idea but I get the feeling only a few will.

Anywho, on to the Spa for the next round of yearling sales.

A quick logistical question re: seeling at F-T July.
When does the seller have to commit to a "reserve" price? Is it at nomination or far later in the process?

Great question. I think the one area of the marketplace, as it relates to "buyers", that won't get as hurt will be the pinhookers. They are somewhat in a position of they "have to buy" -- at least something -- it just becomes a question of what, where, how much, etc. If the pinhookers back off, they are pretty much putting themselves in a position of not being able to do business. Their wallets might be affected, they might not spend as much or buy as many, but they will still buy or else they can't conduct business.

Like you said, on to the Spa, and then Keeneland for about a zillion horses being sold.

Eric

Far later. The seller can set an RNA up to very late (as long as the RNA price gets to the auction stand). However, it doesn't matter -- the seller can bid or "protect" the horse to any price he/she wants.

Eric

Thanks Eric. I was wondering if a baby nominated early in the year might have had a reserve set at that time and as the economy has gotten worse, the reserve might seem high, but that appears not to be the case.

As I often see in the hunter/jumper world, it looks like many sellers are basing reserves on "what they have into the horse" than a reasonable reflection of the market as it stands TODAY.

Maybe it was my imagination but I did think the internet pic of the high priced Unforgettable Max colt actually looked like a yearling as opposed to a 4 year old that we are used to seeing. It was refreshing to see a yearling actually look like the young kids they are. But again, it could be my perception was off.

But 22 buyers did request the post sale steroid tests so there could be some returns. And they should be made public if there is a positive, it seems.
http://news.bloodhorse.com/article/46167.htm

Markets by definition are NOT efficent hence opportunity for the seller and or the buyer

http://news.bloodhorse.com/article/46167.htm
Take notice of the non-chalant comments about steroids in yearlings made by Jay Em Ess Stable's Samantha Siegel and West Point's Finley. One wonders if this ambilance about doping extends to their racing stable.

Remember, 22 buyers do not agree with the status quo statements from Siegel and Finley.

I wouldn't necessarily dimiss their comments as nonchalant...they are pretty much right, you can usually tell which ones have been given something and which ones haven't. And they both said that they would test if they were suspicious.

From the bloodhorse article...
“We did test horses from the 2-year-old sales and did not have a positive,” Finley said. “I think the message is out to the industry, and I think these people are being on the conservative side. I think it is very positive and I think it is going to help overall. You always hear about these 2-year-old consignors who get these horses down to them in October and they are 100 pounds lighter than they were in August and September. “

To be fair Finley was more balanced in his response than I initially perceived. But, that's why we have our dialogue.

Now on to Saratoga for some more wheelin and dealin.