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-   -   belmont carry sunday card.. 68,000 (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23643)

hoovesupsideyourhead 06-29-2008 10:54 AM

belmont carry sunday card.. 68,000
 
race 1 6.5f claiming 15k

pp 1/1a entry 7/5
pp 2 civil suit ml 6-1 wins 7.20
pp 6 here i go again ml 7/2

race 2 6.5f msw 52k

pp 6 great humor ml 8-1
pp 3 mosaic ml 5/2 2nd
pp 2 dulcet tone ml 8/5 wins 3.90 ext 2/3 20.00

race 3 1mile and 1/16th claiming 25k

pp 7 mithal ml 5/2 wins
pp 3 desert quest ml 10-1
pp 4 elements ml 15-1


race 4 the tremont 5.5f

pp 1 mr mistoff ml 4/5
pp 5 dagnabit ml 4-1
pp 3 esenceof the moon ml 8-1

race 5 6.f turf 35k start of the pick 6

pp 10 ms annie m ml 4-1
pp 7 blugrass girl ml 5/2
pp 6 k playmate ml 7/2


race 6 6f turf 45k

pp 6 taoga tiger ml 12-1
pp 5 whrl agitha ml 6-1
pp 3 cobblestone way

race 7 1mile and 1/16th turf 35 k

pp 1 fiddlers pr ml 5/2
pp 7 dance lesson ml 6-1
pp 4 queen of fashon ml 6-1
pp 9 on jodies acct ml 15-1

race 8 6f turf allw 49k

pp 9 gold vendatta ml 8-1
pp 11 sammys toy 10-1
pp 8 woodmere ml 30-1 will suprise ...

race 9 5.5f astoria 75k

pp 7 g on the side ml 6-1
pp 4 ride on josephine ml12-1
pp 1 lori zs punch ml 10-1

race 10 1 mile tuf allw

pp 9 vision of sunrise ml 6-1
pp 4 personal good ml 20-1
pp 7 m - jet ml 8-1
pp 2 t harry ml

good luck h

Mike 06-29-2008 12:57 PM

Elements is my only Belmont wager today. We'll see what lesson I learn

My wager has brought the odds down to 5-1

jms62 06-29-2008 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike
Elements is my only Belmont wager today. We'll see what lesson I learn

My wager has brought the odds down to 5-1

Elements came up big on my scan too but he is taking lots of money... The Hooves factor...

the_fat_man 06-29-2008 01:18 PM

what a terrible 2 days of turf racing at BEL this weekend.

pointman 06-29-2008 03:14 PM

small late pk4:

7- 1,5,6,7,8
8- 1
9- 2,6
10- 1,2,4,8,9

Good luck!

hockey2315 06-29-2008 03:18 PM

My only play today is the Romans maiden in the feature. Looks like the only one who can definitely come from off the pace and her figs are better than everyone's except for the 6. Not going crazy with her but she's worth a small bet.

DJARUM 06-29-2008 03:21 PM

Belmont 7th
 
BTW gave out the 8 in the Belmont 7th, thanks Andy !!!!!:) As a single And the 9 in the 8th. BEaUTIFUL

hoovesupsideyourhead 06-29-2008 03:34 PM

i think the 12 at arlington has ashot:eek:

pointman 06-29-2008 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJARUM
BTW gave out the 8 in the Belmont 7th, thanks Andy !!!!!:) As a single

Nice job by Andy, wish I would have seen/heard that as I would rather be 4 to 5 deep here even though I think the 1 is the one to beat in the 8th, a little nervous with the single here.

the_fat_man 06-29-2008 03:50 PM

I get a kick out of jockeys going down at the break. I mean, you'd think they'd anticipate that their mount would stumble out of the gate and be prepared for it.

This is like me riding up along cars, anticipating someone opening his door, and still getting doored.

pointman 06-29-2008 03:51 PM

Nice call on the 9 in the Belmont 8th Hooves, wish I would have heeded it.

hoovesupsideyourhead 06-29-2008 03:53 PM

thanks point....

jms62 06-29-2008 04:19 PM

Pletcher lays a goose egg with his 2 yr olds... Was either even mentioned other than 1st call ???

Coach Pants 06-29-2008 04:40 PM

I took Personal Good in the finale

jms62 06-29-2008 04:50 PM

Again the Pick 3 seems light... 19.8 x 5.7 x 7.1 pays 185 for a deuce

hockey2315 06-29-2008 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62
Again the Pick 3 seems light... 19.8 x 5.7 x 7.1 pays 185 for a deuce

I don't think so. . .

blackthroatedwind 06-29-2008 05:52 PM

Put in $176.....blew the first leg and As won every other leg. Ended up with 2 consos.

I guess the first winner could have been a C but then I would have had to have added elsewhere as well and didn't want to bet too much.

asudevil 06-29-2008 06:00 PM

Rajiv Maragh
 
Exhibiting some skills. Is he for real?

philcski 06-29-2008 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
I get a kick out of jockeys going down at the break. I mean, you'd think they'd anticipate that their mount would stumble out of the gate and be prepared for it.

This is like me riding up along cars, anticipating someone opening his door, and still getting doored.

No it isn't.

ArlJim78 06-30-2008 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
I get a kick out of jockeys going down at the break. I mean, you'd think they'd anticipate that their mount would stumble out of the gate and be prepared for it.

This is like me riding up along cars, anticipating someone opening his door, and still getting doored.

if this wasn't meant as tongue-in-cheek then its the dumbest post ever.

the_fat_man 06-30-2008 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
if this wasn't meant as tongue-in-cheek then its the dumbest post ever.

Why is that, JIM?

There's such a thing as ANTICIPATION in sports. If you allow for the possibility of something to happen, then you can be prepared for it when it does. Baseball players do this, for example, expecting certain pitches in certain counts. YET, this doesn't happen in horse racing? Of course, here's a sport in which jocks just can't seem to learn from their mistakes: witness the high number getting repeatedly PINCHED on the rail, going into the turn, because they're too stupid to either GUN and get the proper inside position, or take back just enough to be clear on the turn. That's why the SHUFFLE BACK is just about the most common trip note there is. (I can understand that the horse is unable to comprehend the power of DRAFTING but the real question is whether some of these jocks do, running up on heels the way they do.) Makes sense, then, that they WOULDN'T anticipate a horse stumbling at the break and thus not be prepared for it and get dumped on their ass. Thus, UNLESS a horse goes down on the break, a jock really needs to be able to stay on it.

ArlJim78 06-30-2008 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Why is that, JIM?

There's such a thing as ANTICIPATION in sports. If you allow for the possibility of something to happen, then you can be prepared for it when it does. Baseball players do this, for example, expecting certain pitches in certain counts. YET, this doesn't happen in horse racing? Of course, here's a sport in which jocks just can't seem to learn from their mistakes: witness the high number getting repeatedly PINCHED on the rail, going into the turn, because they're too stupid to either GUN and get the proper inside position, or take back just enough to be clear on the turn. That's why the SHUFFLE BACK is just about the most common trip note there is. (I can understand that the horse is unable to comprehend the power of DRAFTING but the real question is whether some of these jocks do, running up on heels the way they do.) Makes sense, then, that they WOULDN'T anticipate a horse stumbling at the break and thus not be prepared for it and get dumped on their ass. Thus, UNLESS a horse goes down on the break, a jock really needs to be able to stay on it.

how would one prepare for a stumble in such a way as to prevent them from flying off? what keeps a rider on a horse? nothing! if it stumbles or balks hard enough then you will be sent airborne whether you anticipated it or not.

philcski 06-30-2008 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Why is that, JIM?

There's such a thing as ANTICIPATION in sports. If you allow for the possibility of something to happen, then you can be prepared for it when it does. Baseball players do this, for example, expecting certain pitches in certain counts. YET, this doesn't happen in horse racing? Of course, here's a sport in which jocks just can't seem to learn from their mistakes: witness the high number getting repeatedly PINCHED on the rail, going into the turn, because they're too stupid to either GUN and get the proper inside position, or take back just enough to be clear on the turn. That's why the SHUFFLE BACK is just about the most common trip note there is. (I can understand that the horse is unable to comprehend the power of DRAFTING but the real question is whether some of these jocks do, running up on heels the way they do.) Makes sense, then, that they WOULDN'T anticipate a horse stumbling at the break and thus not be prepared for it and get dumped on their ass. Thus, UNLESS a horse goes down on the break, a jock really needs to be able to stay on it.

The problem with your argument is this, Fat Man. A bicycle is a 60 pound inanimate object, whereas a horse is a 1200 pound animal with a mind of it's own. They don't stop and start on a dime, nor do they always make moves that are anticipatory. When a horse bucks, or stumbles, the rider usually has no time to prepare for it.

When you actually try riding a horse yourself you'll find this out and perhaps your rationalization will change.

the_fat_man 06-30-2008 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
The problem with your argument is this, Fat Man. A bicycle is a 60 pound inanimate object, whereas a horse is a 1200 pound animal with a mind of it's own. They don't stop and start on a dime, nor do they always make moves that are anticipatory. When a horse bucks, or stumbles, the rider usually has no time to prepare for it.

When you actually try riding a horse yourself you'll find this out and perhaps your rationalization will change.

So, who probably knows more about the 'nuances' of the game of basketball, say?

1) the star player

2) the casual player

3) the film geek, who spends 18 hours a day breaking down tape

You'd be surprised what you can get out of watching replays


Moreover, while I don't ride horses, assuming you're not galloping horses or riding in races of some sort, I do, however, ride within a peloton daily, where I'm constantly in traffic at speeds typically between 25-35 MPH. This quite nicely approximates what happens in a (large field) turf race, which very closely resembles the peloton.

My only point was that jocks need to better anticipate TROUBLE at the break. I don't think this is controversial. If you watch enough races, you see less than stellar performances by the jocks. They make the same mistakes, both technical and strategic, repeatedly. It's, then, not a major leap to assume that since they could improve in other areas, they might also be able to improve out of the gate. For example: in terms of ANTICIPATION.

ArlJim78 06-30-2008 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
So, who probably knows more about the 'nuances' of the game of basketball, say?

1) the star player

2) the casual player

3) the film geek, who spends 18 hours a day breaking down tape

the star player of course would know much more about the nuances than the geek or a casual player.

the_fat_man 06-30-2008 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
the star player of course would know much more about the nuances than the geek or a casual player.

Really? That's why there are so many successful coaches that were star players.

You make this up as you go along?

hockey2315 06-30-2008 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
the star player of course would know much more about the nuances than the geek or a casual player.

I disagree with this part, but I agree with the rest of what you and Phil are saying.

philcski 06-30-2008 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
So, who probably knows more about the 'nuances' of the game of basketball, say?

1) the star player

2) the casual player

3) the film geek, who spends 18 hours a day breaking down tape

You'd be surprised what you can get out of watching replays


Moreover, while I don't ride horses, assuming you're not galloping horses or riding in races of some sort, I do, however, ride within a peloton daily, where I'm constantly in traffic at speeds typically between 25-35 MPH. This quite nicely approximates what happens in a (large field) turf race, which very closely resembles the peloton.

My only point was that jocks need to better anticipate TROUBLE at the break. I don't think this is controversial. If you watch enough races, you see less than stellar performances by the jocks. They make the same mistakes, both technical and strategic, repeatedly. It's, then, not a major leap to assume that since they could improve in other areas, they might also be able to improve out of the gate. For example: in terms of ANTICIPATION.

I do gallop horses, not as well as professional jockeys of course, but i'm also 6'1" and 180 lbs vs a jockey who's almost half that size- it's VERY difficult to immediately change direction or speed. At the start, however, i think it has more to do with the horse being overeager than anything else. I don't know if the jocks have any way of not getting them to stumble (like the comically bad start to the Mother Goose)

the_fat_man 06-30-2008 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
I do gallop horses, not as well as professional jockeys of course, but i'm also 6'1" and 180 lbs vs a jockey who's almost half that size- it's VERY difficult to immediately change direction or speed. At the start, however, i think it has more to do with the horse being overeager than anything else. I don't know if the jocks have any way of not getting them to stumble (like the comically bad start to the Mother Goose)

I'm not making the claim that a jock can stop a horse from stumbling or ducking out (or things of that sort) ESPECIALLY when shot out of the gate. My claim all along is that jockeys need to better anticipate these things at the break. Anticipate a horse going to its knees; anticipate a horse ducking out or in. Some jocks are better than others at not going down when these things happen. This is a fact. Part of it, I'm sure, is due to their athleticism; part to their anticipation/preparation. It's beyond argument, I would think, that if you're prepared for an occurrence, ANY OCCURRENCE, you have a better chance at handling it.

My assertion that they don't anticipate as well as they should is an inference drawn from their continual repetition of errors in other facets of the trip around the track.

ArlJim78 06-30-2008 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Really? That's why there are so many successful coaches that were star players.

You make this up as you go along?

successful coaches were ALWAYS former players, and not geeks who just watched films. nice try changing the premise. being a star is not the essential ingredient for being a good coach, but having played the game is a must.

correct me if i'm wrong, but in your case you have probably never ridden a thoroughbred once, let alone raced them, it certainly hasn't helped you much in terms of common sense or laws of physics. a horse breaking quickly can dump the rider in numerous ways no matter how much you prepare and anticipate.

just one question, is your concern for the rider, or for the bettor? I'm pretty sure the whole reason you brought this up was because of the wagering side. I just want to point out that if a rider acted more defensively in order to not get dumped, and fully anticipated getting dumped each time, that it would be a detriment to his chances of winning the race. the jockeys that are best for the bettors are the ones that don't hesitate or anticipate being dumped but instead put fear aside and break sharply with the horse and get into position.

SentToStud 06-30-2008 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
So, who probably knows more about the 'nuances' of the game of basketball, say?

1) the star player

2) the casual player

3) the film geek, who spends 18 hours a day breaking down tape

You'd be surprised what you can get out of watching replays


Moreover, while I don't ride horses, assuming you're not galloping horses or riding in races of some sort, I do, however, ride within a peloton daily, where I'm constantly in traffic at speeds typically between 25-35 MPH. This quite nicely approximates what happens in a (large field) turf race, which very closely resembles the peloton.

My only point was that jocks need to better anticipate TROUBLE at the break. I don't think this is controversial. If you watch enough races, you see less than stellar performances by the jocks. They make the same mistakes, both technical and strategic, repeatedly. It's, then, not a major leap to assume that since they could improve in other areas, they might also be able to improve out of the gate. For example: in terms of ANTICIPATION.

Do you stop for red lights?

Bobby Fischer 07-02-2008 03:11 PM

poor analogy, excellent concept

very frustrating to see lack of Anticipation.

Particularly in recurring situations and/or critical aspects to the start of the race or turn.


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