Can a consistent long-term profit be acheived in horseracing markets?
 

In this thread I will attempt to make wagers that show a consistent long-term profit. I will show the math behind my plays.


rules:
$1,000 bankroll

goals:
+0.15 ROI
$2,000 bankroll

yes play what byk puts out..

Just play Dutrow off the claim and you're all set.

I can't get a value play I like at Belmont all day!

woodrunner just went from unbettable to completely unbettable...

Belmont Race7 $89 to show on #7 Giant Storm

Estimated $2 price=2.8
est. hit%=.8
Value=1.12
edgefactor=.896
wager amount=89.6

win, return = $200.25 ($4.50*89*0.5)
new bankroll = $1111.25


comments: I think i gave Maragh too much credit at the 12furlong inner turf trip. Never Again lol. Luckily he just got up for third after racing well off of the slow pace.

Race2 Belmont $2 place #5

very small wager here on the 2yo race , 4 entries , assymetrical win/place pools

win, return $3.00
new bankroll = $1112.25


Comments: seemed like a great value play. Expected $3 back in the place pool on the 6/5 shot. #5 was full of juice, recently gelded and well bet and faced 4 entries. His main rival was not recieving lasix. Didn't want to invest in a 2yo first time starter race, hence the "fun" size wager.

i'm on the edge of my seat.

Belmont Race4 $10 to win on #3 Polonui
estimated $2 price=7
est. hit%=.3
Value=1.05
edgefactor=.315
wager amount=10

+

Belmont Race4 $24 to show on #3 Polonui
estimated $2 price=3
est. hit%=.7
Value=1.05
edgefactor=.735
wager amount=24

lose, loss = $34
new bankroll = $1077.25



Comments: Clemente layoff horse didn't fire. Did not appear to enjoy slow pace on slow turf, was well held & rank through traffic for most. May not be much horse, or could surprise in a future weak turf sprint.

Belmont Race8 $29 to show on #6 Lovely Isle
estimated $2 price=3
est. hit%=.75
Value=1.125
edgefactor=.84
wager amount=29

win, return = $44.95(14.5*$3.10)
new bankroll =1093.20

Comments: $3.10 great value on the far superior animal paying 6-5 to win.
Adjusted the formula here: BANKROLL*VALUE*HIT%*.033.
Originally I was going to use *0.1 , however the goal of this is to show consistent longterm profit so it was reduced to a third.
I would have gone heavier here anyway, but I couldn't believe that everyone didn't put huge show money on the 6 after OFF. I was worried he would go off at 2.50 to show.

Belmont Race9 $1ex bx 1,2,3,9 =$12

I appreciate what you are trying to do here, but it would take the patience of Jobe to accomplish this. Your last bet should have been a large show bet on the 1 or 3 as the prices were not bad for what you are trying to do.

Lose, loss = $12
new bankroll =1081.20


Comments: I was wrong about thinking First Defence had a 70% chance of quitting out of the exacta. One of those cases where you are basically making a best "guess". In hindsight, a very bad guess. I also think I was too aggressive and should have held out for great value on a guess.
Math=
exotic cost= $12
min expected payout = $20 for $1
estimated $2 price=3.33333
est. hit%=.70
Value=1.155
edgefactor=.80
wager amount=28

On a four horse box for $12 with a 1,000 bankroll? Your kidding...right?

you bet lovley isle to show.. you are an idiot

Bet size is pretty much a secondary concern.

The only thing to think about with bet size right now is to keep it small enough that randomness will not skew the results.

The main concern is accurately finding high value plays.

If the dude had a clue, you think he'd be here doing his best Dave Schwartz or Overlay impression? He'd be sitting back and trying to pick up some pointers about HANDICAPPING from people who actually are adept at it.

There's much to be said about grinding out a .99 ROI and making up the difference in rebates (and volume). For those in CLUELESS circles, this has become the de facto way to do things. Frankly, I don't get it. The game to me is the ultimate challenge and has a certain aesthetic quality to it; it's as much art as it is a skill. Crunching numbers, abstractions, that have no resemblance to the game itself to eek out a small profit is probably something like being forced to jack off to gay porn when you're straight.

Luckily, there's an alternative to this method. It's the liberating method of watching races. Get good at this and a 1.5 ROI is commonplace. In fact, this is probably the level during a LOSING streak. Then, any discussion about the .99 ROI method is kind of uninteresting. This is something that Fischer and his friends don't quite get. The is the realm of HAVING AN OPINION.

Needless to say, I hang on every new posting in Fischer's monologues.

This has thread of the year potential......

:$: :$: :$: :$:

is this a joke.. i just read every post and this has to be dumber then some of the **** i have posted in the past.

...which would not be an easy task...

Roflzzz....
 

My ROI IS currently 1.5

exact math =
$166 Wagered
$248.2 Returned
1.495181
---------
=1.495 ROI

respect my "swagger"

everyone is allowed to have their own style.

We've got some people that work in the industry. There's a pecking order. Steve Byk and all these people are at the top. I also respect Fat Man's opinion. Stop being a baby and maybe we can bs a race sometime.

from your response, it seems to me like you almost agree with me.

maybe he does have a positive roi, and i wont lie...... my roi since jan 1 is not great... but i will never ever let anyone convince me that betting show on 6-5 fav. is a good bet... especially frankel today, shes was not a lock to run 1-2-3 .....

i would also like to add... i do respect your swagger... i just disagree with your method

If you want to actually discuss this, tell me what %chance you think Lovely Isle had of finishing top 3 of that race.

what do you mean what percent ? i dont handicap that way... i thought there was TONS OF SPEED ON PAPER.... and i did not like her for the win, i used 1,2,3,9... the 3 ran huge for second at giant odds...
i dont know what % though, i guess if i had to say, i would say there was a 50% chance she could have bombed and ran out of the top 3

so for you she was a bad bet. You didn't even like her to win.

If you think she will pay $3 and has a 50% chance thats only a 0.75 roi. Meaning if you are right and did that over a million bets, you would lose a quarter for every dollar you bet.

I thought she was easily the best. I thought she had about a 75% chance of finishing top 3. So for my opinion if I was right was an roi of 1.125. So over a million bets if i was right that would be a profit of 12cents per every dollar bet.

We just had different opinions about how good the horse was. If I had the same opinion as you, I definetly wouldn't have bet.



As far as the horse being 6-5, he wasn't getting the same kind of money in the show pool. He ended up paying 4.40 to win and 3.10 to show. Here is what the pools looked like after ALL bets were counted.

why not crush her to win ?

too short of a price to win. I wasn't getting any deal in that win pool.

ok now im lost... to short a price, if she was such a lock to you, why not 500 to win ? 200 to win ?
100 to win ? im confused, or wait... better yet... why not forget shot... and a large win/place ?

Lovely Isle was an atrocious bet to win, place, or show regardless of the results.

thank you... thats what i am saying....

Are you trying?

Think about this example: A man in the grociery store is selling bundles of CASH. One catch!, you can only spend $1,000.

$7 cost you $6.95
$6 cost you $6
$5 cost you $4


Why did you buy the $5 dollar bundles?

Why didn't you load up on the $7 dollar bundles?

show betting for profit is a joke at this rate it will take you till btw is president of peta to make your 2k..and guess what..what happens when your chalky fave runs out of the money......

i am trying to understand.. i am not just ripping you like others. i just dont see it....