6/7: Belmont Stakes Day
 

Preliminary look at Saturday.. Not going to have opportunity to comment much.. Enjoy the great day..

BELMONT PARK

Pre-Scratches/Changes...

NOTE CORRECTED R2-5 PICK 4..

1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #1e J. Jerkens entry 3-1 (Prado double-named) WON
Next Best: #7 Commandeered 7-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Tizbig 15-1 7th
Exotics Add: #2 Basha's Moon 12-1 3rd


2nd: MSW 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #6 Tiz It 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Sixthirteen 7-2 WON
Best Value: #10 Golden Weekend 8-1 3rd
Exotics Add: #3 SCR

$1 Exacta (7-6) Paid $10.40
$1 Trifecta (7-6-10) Paid $31.25


3rd: NYB-MSW, 3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #8 Smart Enuf 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Piazza Di Spagna 5-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Seeking No More 6-1 3rd
Exotics Add: #10 American Brave 12-1 4th

$1 Exacta (4-5) Paid $25.75
$1 Trifecta (4-5-8) Paid $59.25
$1 Daily Double (7-4) Paid $51.50
$1 Pick 3 (1-7-4) Paid $52,50
$1 Superfecta (4-5-8-10) Paid $697.00


4th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #4 Forefathers 3-1 WON
Best Value: #5 Vitruvius 8-1 8th
Next Best: #11 Teide 5-1 7th
Exotics Add: #8 Firejack 6-1 9th

$1 Pick 3 (7-4-4) Paid $61.50


5th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #9 Too Tough Pete 5-1 10th
Best Value: #1 (POE) Endless Circle 10-1
Next Best: #12 Benny the Waiter 3-1 7th
Exotics Add: #7 Dr. W 8-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (1-7) $134.25
$1 Daily Double (4-1) Paid $62.75
$1 Pick 3 (4-4-1) $310.50
$1 Pick 4 (3/7-4-3/4/9-1) $1,180.00


@$75 P4 Play:

2: 6-7-10
3: 4-5-8
4: 4-5-11
5: 1-9-12

3x3x3x3 = $81

$1 Pick 4 (3/7-4-3/4/9-1) 4 Correct Paid $1,180.00


6th: 30th True North H. (Gr. II), 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #7 Benny the Bull 4-5 WON
Best Value: #4 Abraaj 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Thor's Echo 7-2 4th
Exotics Add: #8 Man of Danger 10-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (7-8) Paid $7.20
$1 Trifecta (7-8-4) Paid $23.70
$1 Daily Double (1-7) Paid $48.25
$1 Pick 3 (4-1-7) 3 Correct Paid $88.50


7th: 15th Just a Game (Gr. I), F&M-3+, 1m-T (G/S, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Best Value: #5 Criminologist 9-2 7th
Most Likely: #1 Lady of Venice 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Bit of Whimsey 4-1 6th
Exotics Add: #2 Spenditallbaby 30-1 9th


8th: 78th Acorn (Gr. I), 3yo-F, 8f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Zaftig 3-1 WON
Next Best:#3 Game Face 5-2 3rd
Exotics Add: #2 Indian Blessing 1-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (1-2) Paid $7.00


9th: 24th Woody Stephens (Gr. II), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #5 J Be K 3-1 WON
Best Value: #9 Majestic Warrior 12-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Ready's Image 2-1 6th
Exotics Add: #8 Run With Me 30-1 9th


10th: 107th Manhattan H. (Gr. I), 3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Proudinsky 7-2 11th
Best Value: #6 Strike a Deal 12-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Shakis 10-1 9th
Exotics Add: #8 Pays to Dream 8-1 3rd


11th: 120th Belmont Stakes (Gr. I), 3yo, 12f (P3, $1 Super)

Without Casino Drive...

Most Likely: #1 Big Brown 2-5 9th
Best Value: #4 Denis of Cork 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Tale of Ekati 20-1 6th
Exotics Add: #10 Icabad Crane 20-1 8th


<$100 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-3-5
9: 2-5-9
10: 6-9
11: 1-4-7-10

4x3x2x4 = $96


<$300 P6 Play:

6: 2-4-7
7: 1-3-5
8: 1-2-3-5
9: 5
10: 6-9
11: 1-4

3x3x4x1x2x2 = 144 x $2 = $288


12th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #3 Bella Attrice 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Laura's Fury 15-1 6th
Next Best: #1 SCR
Exotics Add: #2 Cordilleran Ice 6-1 3rd


13th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 6.5f ($1 Super)

Best Value: #8 Benlayla 15-1 3rd
Most Likely: #3 Megapixel 3-1 WON
Next Best: #13 Law Enforcement 4-1 2nd
Exotics Add: #12 SCR


<$50 P4 Play:

10: 3-6-8-9
11: 1-4-7-10
12: 3
13: 3-8-13

4x4x1x3 = $48


Good luck!~
Steve

Hey Steve, surprised to go against you in the 7th, with Bayou's Lassie and in the 10th with Stalingrad (you mention neither)

In the big one, I've seen too much to keep fighting against Big Brown. I'll tri key him over Denis of Cork,, Casino Dream(just can't throw him out, despite the injury report-would love to see him scratch) and Pletcher and Velzquez with Ready's Echo. Ready's Echo I feel is the hidden value underneath

Vitruvius :cool:

Leaving Cordilleran Ice out of your top four in the 12th seems like a big mistake.

Neither one of those horses has any real chance at all.

I'd avoid her - dream trip last time against much lesser.

You've told us who you don't like, and maybe you have a great understanding of what horses to throw out.
But who do you like in these two races, the 7th and 10th, to put up against my Stalingrad and Bayou's Lassie?

huge shot...

what did I do to deserve this?

your wrong... well about 1.... Stalingrad has a big chance...as for the other race.. steve has the exacta cold... lady and the criminal

hahahaha

lol
dont worry i did decent today.... it could be a good sign
i cashed ok on the shug firster.

Stalingrad has a huge shot at backing up and finishing near the end of the pack.

ok... its a weak group..old horses, who all appear to be slowing down. he is the only up and comer, and because of that alone is worth at least putting on multi race tickets

I wouldn't call it weak, and Stalingrad won't finishing in the top 5.

Steve, thanks for the picks. In the early p-4, it seems your picks are for races 1,2,4, and 5 and the p-4 starts with race 2.

Have a great Belmont day!!!

Bulllea

well lets talk about it, maybe not weak... but solid older horses at best... the whole older turf division is on the weak side, correct ? i have the pp's here, who do you like ?

I do think it's a very competitive race, but I absolutely love Dancing Forever. Playing him to win and place only.

im not saying Stalingrad is the most likely winner.... i posted a pick 4 the other day, where i was going 5-9 deep in there, i think its wide wide open.
i will be using Stalingrad for sure though, along with dancing forever and a bunch of others.

Never brag about cashing on a Shug firster - betting those is a quick way to go broke.

i know, i always chase them...
i did not bet it big at all, and did not mean to brag

Expecting a 3rd perfect trip in a row?

Not enough that she sucked up inside, Coa did his best to blow the race for the favorite, as well. PERFECT TRIP.

lol your funny... why ever use coa in that spot ? i had shug to win, and singled in the pick 3, which i hit for 200

Still trying to figure this card out. Tough races to 'cap. Steve, in the 10th, it seems that everyone is looking past the Mclaughlin runners. Except you of course with Shakis. Shakis has disappointed recently but he needs a firm turn course which he will get this year. He just missed winning this last year when Alan G. made a mistake he has committed to never make again and moved outside and let Better Talk through on the rail where he could have run. He has become much more patient now. But Stream of Gold! Has anyone seen his figures? He is the the most consistent horse in the field, has a positive joc change to Robby A., comes in off a good 5/6 weeks and ran a bullet in company with Shakis. The bullet worries me that it may have been too much but Stream is very live here.

wow!! this guy is good he knows when a trainer that is 0-36 with firsters has a live one. Im impressed.

RE: The Acorn. I don't like Game Face. Should have cruised in her last. Does Dance Gal Dance have enough early speed to soften up Indian Blessing? I'm inclined to use just two in the P4: the 1 and the 5.

Thoughts?

perfect trip against a bunch of crows.

1's legit, 5 is overmatched

Why would the bullet work worry you? Along with consistent figures, Stream of Gold consisently works fast.

As do most Kiarin horses. . . what would worry me is his 0/4 record at the distance, slowness, and outside post (maybe).

RE: Woody Stephens.

Do we read into Prado getting off Silver Edition and on to a horse that shows one dirt race? Do Prado and Baker have a past?

0/3 together in the last year and a half or so. . . Using both but like Fatal Bullet more.

I mean the horse doesn't show a local workout...nothing since May 4th at W.O. I hate to make a big deal about a jock but seems way out of left field; especially with the way Silver Ed. fought on Preakness day. This race baffles me. I'd feel better about J Be K if Harlem Rocker faired better. Maybe it was the poly....

That's what worries me. What draws me back in is his entrymate's ability to run a lightning pace. This would set up well for Stream of Gold if other horses run with Shake the Bank.

The only thing that I can think about when looking at the PPs for the woody is why I didnt crush T-berg. I cant seem to let it go.

Whose entry mate? Better Talk Now's rabbit isn't fooling anyone - I doubt it'll really set things up for deep closers.

Sorry, Better Talk Now's entrymate, there are a couple that will go if only "reasonably" fast

My sentiments exactly.

About the only horse more ridiculous than him is Stalingrad.

If you want to know who I like there are video analyses of every stake on DRF Plus that I did with Dan Illman.

Bayou's Lassie rolled on a speed favoring turf versus considerably weaker horses in her last race and faces, at least, stalking pressure from the much better Bit of Whimsey. She can't deal with her as they turn for home and she certainly can't deal with Lady of Venice and Criminologist later.

Stalingrad has had perfect trips in his last two races against considerably weaker. I respect the idea of taking an up and comer, if in fact that is true about your selection, but to me he is a horse with dramatically dressed up form that I would be looking to bet against versus a much weaker field. Simply said....he isn't as good as he looks and even at face value he doesn't look good enough to compete here.