Watching race replays
 

Am I the only one that struggles with this at times? How many times will you watch the same race? I find it difficult to closely watch more than 1 or 2 horses at a time. Sometimes I have to watch the replay multiple times and just concentrate on only one horse at a time to get a full understanding of their respective trip. Anyone else have the same problem? Any advice on how to better watch replays?

I hear you. I wish you could rewind and slow motion but with the internet that's virtually impossible. If I watch a race even for one horse I have to see it 2-3 times, let alone multipe horses.

I guess this is an Andy question.

Spyder

Wasn't there a thread on this a while ago where Andy (or someone) talked about how to watch replays?

I try to tape some of the replay shows with my tivo. It is so easy to rewind and fast foward, plus it even has a slow mo feature. It like it so much better than the computer, the only downside is that you only get the replay that they show on the tv. On the computer sometimes you can get the head on's.

There may have been Bob...but I missed it it that was the case.

I don't remember enough, but it was interesting...search time

Charles Hatton Reading Room..6/20/06
Don't know how to cut and paste threads, but it's there

Thanks for that. Hard for me to keep up now a days. Some of us Republicans still working for a living:D

:rolleyes:

They are somewhat less important than people think. The reason for that is because people pretty much see the same stuff in them, and bet accordingly. Take, for instance, this Comoros horse in the 7th race at HWD on Friday night. What do you see in his 2 previous races? You see him getting beat without an excuse, right? So, unless you're the only one who gets a little note on your video that says " attention Comoros will be officially randomly juiced next time out by Sadler, " then I really don't see how they help you in that particular race coming up. KEV, if you try to cap all these races, then you will get beat, because they aren't gunna follow common sense in some races. These juice trainers know when a horse will be ignored by the public. They know that, and they juice then. 3 times now in the last week, Sadler has done this with horses that he knows appear to be a little dull, or tailing off. You won't pick that up on a video. This is about trainers pulling switches when they know they can get paid. Do me a favor. The next time you say to yourself, o.k. that horse isn't firing. "I won't use him. He is a little dull."STOP!!! Ask yourself .." Is this a known cheater. One who has been suspended etc. in the past. If so, then it's very possible they will try a switch on you......Mitchell(On the Acorn etc. )...Sadler (Cormoros etc. etc. etc. OMG can't keep track ....I mean him and Benavidez are pretty much used car salesmen.) Please, people lets not get into a particular horse, (and whether it was "sooooo easy to get"... even though it just easily got beat twice by these same exact f'n horses.)

SCUDS's post wins the Non-Sequitor Post of the Year award hands down.

As for the original question, what's wrong with having to watch the race over again....even a few times?

Nothing wrong with it at all...it is clearly what works best for me. I was just curious if others had the ability to concentrate on more than 1 or 2 horses at the same time while watching.

come on..it's early out there..
or late, depending on how your night went I guess

It depends if you are trying to concentrate on specific horses or not. You can get a lot of notes in two or three watchings of the pan and a couple viewings of the head on but if you are trying to concentrate on specific horses it's hard to watch more than two or maybe three. It also depends how much actually happens in the race.

True, but the " why bother watching replays because some juiced horse will beat you anyway " is pretty tough to beat....at least in a supposed serious conversation.

Of course, when you factor in that SCUDS believes that people see the same stuff I guess a new wrinkle is thrown in. I can pretty much guarantee you that the Fat Man sees things differently, and very intelligently, than most see races. I know I see trips very differently than most. I also know that the more you watch replays carefully the more you will understand what's important and what isn't.

To me, most of it is race shape and how certain events affect different horses' chances in the race.

What should I say? Yeah, you got to watch it multiple times. Work hard to see who is the best coming out of that race. If there are 3 horses racing today that ran in the same race together,then watch them each separately(probably one at a time if they didn't race together a lot in the race.) I could do that, and he'll work hard and still get beat. That's what I am telling him. The juice trainers know you're gunna ignore certain horses. That video will push you even further away from those horses. Some races the video will help you. Some races it will absolutely kill you. Pick atleast one race in a series you are playing, and go against what common sense tells you. Juice trainers will use common sense against you. You would too (if you were a cheat.) Now, all day long they will say on here that this isn't so. All races can be capped etc. if you work hard etc. It's bullshit. Some races can be capped, and others can't. They are giving out money..o.k.? When they think you don't care about a horse, that's exactly when they do care about a horse.

THE HATTON READING ROOM 'Help Me Watch Races" THREAD:
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1020

It varies quite a bit. There are times when I am just concerned about maybe 2 or 3 horses in a race. But there are times (mostly turf races) where I have no vested interest in the actual outcome of the race, but I am watching the replay in hopes of spotting troubled trips, etc...for future plays. In cases such as that, I will rewatch the race over and over, concentrating on only one particular horse per time.

You just don't get it SCUDS.

The more information you have, and the better you learn to accurately understand the game, the better are your chances of making money.

The reality is that most of the work a handicapper does will lead to absolutely nothing. However, in order to find the hidden gems you have to do as comprehensive a job as possible. If I work 4 hours on a card, in all likelihood 3 hours and 50 minutes of it will be a relative waste of time, or worse....lead me to losing, but somewhere in that ten minutes there just might be something that leads me to a big score. You can't get to that ten minutes of work unless you do all the work.

Nobody will accurately tell you that watching replays guarantees winning. But, over time it will seriously help your play if you have an objective view and an open mind.

To each his own, but to me you spend an awful lot of time fighting the demons of extraneous events.

It will only get you so far. You can work all you want, but in a series of races, they are gunna probably wake up one dull horse. If you went deep, you might survive it. The best advice I can give anyone is to make a list of known cheat artists. If you're playing horizontally, then the race you go deepest in should be when you see a strong favorite in a race with cheat trainers.If you're playing vertically, then use the video. Make love to it. Eat up the figures etc. I'm talking about a series of races(horizontal betting.) Now, I also am talking mainly about SO-CAL Racing. Which is where a lot of horizontal betting is popular. Maybe in New York you don't have the infestation we have out here.

Cheating is a problem, no doubt, but leaning on it like a crutch to explain away your handicapping inefficiencies is a bigger crime. It's always easy to blame someone other than yourself for losing. However, doing so will not stem the tide of defeat.

No, it's not impossible, but you won't get it from watching a video. It favored them to move this horse up when most people were interested in the 2, the 4 ,and the 8 (IN THAT RACE.) If you admit there are cheats, and admit that most people thought the race was between those three horses, then that was the most financially ideal time for this barn to increase this horse's performance. That's exactly their mindset. Are heads turned to look elsewhere? Yes, o.k. bam!!

One of the reasons I don't play SoCal tracks anymore. Too much funny bidness.

So, you think people handicap the race, figure out when their supposed vehicle for cheating won't be one of the favorites, and then load it up in order to cash a bet? By that way of thinking how come every supposed cheating trainer doesn't win with every reasonably big priced horse they race?

You may, or may not, have found a reason to bet that horse by watching replays but you will come a whole helluva lot closer to the truth in general if you spend some time watching replays.

gotta do the work...look at belmont here is a great example how people may see two diffrent things

belmont weds may 21 race 5

subject pp 3 aegean breeze

was the horse horribly blocked or...was it tired anyway...

I'm not blaming anybody for anything. I am speaking generally about the situation out here. Like any other crooks, people are looking for a situation where people's attention is distracted. That's when they act. When it favors them the most. In a series of horizontal races, handicapping is overrated.My biggest payoffs have come from handicapping two races, and not handicapping the third race of a sequence.

I don't watch replays. I figure I'd leave some money in the pools for you guys.
































:cool:

One over? LOL...One? They didn't do that well late in the Anita meet, nor early in this meet. It was just time "to go." Like that owner Gary Barber said in the winners circle Sunday "Yea it's nice to win one for a change." Said it right next to Sadler. The barn just decided to win some races, and that's exactly what they are gunna do.

why is that cheating..they may have trained em up..it happens all the time..if you truly believe that the game is fixed..why play it.. see catalano /calberese......they must be cheating.. no they do this most every meet..it will tail off..

Terrible example. He got beat a LENGTH, despite being the widest of the three, and worked a bullet in the interim. How is this confirmed cheating???

Amen! :D

of course it isn't, the guy stays up all night to figure out this stuff. i said before, its ALWAYS either bad rides by dumb jockeys, cheating trainers, or a conspiracy by those in the know.

You picked the Comoros race as your example? Andy and Dahoss can back me up that this is not a redboard but that horse was the play based on replay work last night. In his last race he is passively ridden by off the pace of South Coast, makes a middle move while wide on the turn, tries to engage and win the race entering the stretch only to tire in the stretch.

now looking at the three trips

South Coast is loose on a quick pace on a Friday night and gets beat anyways, how can he get a better trip - 5/2

Brian the Bull saves all the ground and makes the late suck up non threatening move to finish fast, thats exactly the horse you dont want in an fair run race 3-1

Comoros had the trip I explained, and they switch to Smith a more aggressive rider, and give him a fast work right before the race, 5-1.

That was the trip play of the night, juice had nothing to do with it!

trip replay work is very beneficial but its extremely time consuming and its not as simple as one may think. The type of trouble that most people think is important is not important at all, for example horses getting boxed in or bad breaks, everyone sees that trouble and its often times called out in the running lines, no value there. I think a successful handicapping book would include a detailed chapter on doing replay work along with a dvd in the back that could be used as a tool.

If time is a consideration then I would suggest teaming up with one or two individuals and sharing to cut down work, but you have to trust the opinion of the person you are sharing with. Its pretty easy to do with programs like formulator or bris.

I hate rehashing races, especially ones that were on well past my bedtime that I had no financial interest in, but the bottom line is the horse shouldn't have been 5-1. You had two horses coming out of a hopelessly bad Snow Chief, a horse 2nd off a year and a half layoff that was sent up to Bay Meadows by O'Neill for his return (now THAT'S a vote of confidence :rolleyes: ), a confirmed 1-17 mediocrity in Dr. Zaentz, and three coming out of two very competitive allowance races. Of the three, while it's convienent to say "hey, this one finished third of the three both times", why wouldn't you at least note that he had picked up two lengths vis a vis the previous race, raced widest of the three in the previous races, and worked a bullet in the interim? Not to mention, with only 4 starts had arguably the highest upside of the three? Wouldn't that be the RIGHT horse to bet at 5-1 when the other two were 2-1 and 3-1??

But it's easier to say he cheated I guess.

What began as a potentially interesting thread, FINALLY after all these months,

reduces to all the regulars (whose opinions I respect) arguing with some PARANOID DOOFUS,
who's been in my IGGY bin for months,
and is CLUELESS when it comes to watching races.

There are so many interesting/intricate components of tripping. Guess we're not discussing them here.

Sad but true.

there are...and fortunately very few players understand them (not saying I do) so there is value there. I would also say that pace intricacies play a large role in watching a trip that are difficult to understand.

why not? discuss away.