Some Questions about Big Brown
 

When I watched Big Brown in the Florida Derby, I knew that was going to be my pick to win Churchill Downs. I love this horse and bet him to win in the the first two lengths of the Triple Crown (although I won almost nothing in Preakness).

So here are my questions:

Do you think his odds will be even higher than 1-5 at Belmont?

If Big Brown wins the Triple Crown, is he a lock for Horse Of The Year even if he is not entered or loses Breeders Cup?

How do you think Big Brown matches up against Curlin today?

Can you name another horse or two that has had the type of explosiveness Big Brown has when called upon?

Two additional comments:

It's not so much that Big Brown won impressively at The Kentucky Derby, but the fact that he did it from the 20th Post. I just think that is so incredible.

I wish I would have put a little money on Ichabod Crane at The Preakness. Mainly because Jeremy Rose seems to do very well at Pimlico. What he did with Afleet Alex when he clipped heels with Scrappy T in 05 was amazing. Almost as amazing as Alex recovering :)

helmet...check

flak jacket...check.

okay.

i'm off to the bomb shelter.

All In!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm not sure I understand your response? Or are you mocking me for my post?

14 feet of concrete and steel
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(me)

Yeah whatever dude. I thought this was a forum to discuss horse racing. Jerks like you I have no use for.

Responses above

Do you think his odds will be even higher than 1-5 at Belmont?

I think he'll be around 2 or 3-5 since Casino Drive will take $

If Big Brown wins the Triple Crown, is he a lock for Horse Of The Year even if he is not entered or loses Breeders Cup?

If Big Brown wins the Triple Crown he'll be Horse of The Year even if he loses to Curlin if the race against each other.

How do you think Big Brown matches up against Curlin today?
If they raced against each other today I think Curlin would beat him. It might be a different story later in the year if both horses are still running.

Can you name another horse or two that has had the type of explosiveness Big Brown has when called upon?

Cigar, Ghostzapper are two that come to mind

I knew this was rather open ended and I'd get some flack. I agree with what you said. And from the overhead view, it looked impressive. At the same time, Desourmeaux didn't go to the whip, so who knows how much Big Brown could have won the Preakness by?

I appreciate your enthusiasm and certainly am not trying to drive away potential fans but the whole idea that a horse could go so much faster because the jockey didn't go to the whip is wrong 99 times out of 100. He wouldn't have improved more than 2 or 3 lengths if driven to the wire. He's a nice horse and had every reason to regress when he wasn't prepared to come back in two weeks which he did. But the fact is his Preakness was horifically slow and he needs to show something amazing in the Belmont to ever leave me feeling that there weren't a thousand other horses that could have won this Triple Crown if born in place of Big Brown.

Do you give any credit to Big Brown for winning from Post 20? I'm not sure Big Brown isn't as good as Street Sense, Smarty Jones, and Afleet Alex (all of whom are amongst my all-time favorites).

Yeah, he ran a nice race in the Derby to win from that post. While I was a big fan of Eight Belles she wasn't in the top 100 fillies of all time so to win a Derby in which she was second takes a little luster off it for me.

If Curlin goes to the arc and wins how could he not be in line for HOY. The Arc and and his other races sure look good even against a TC winner.

Cause foreign races aren't supposed to count in HOY voting. He'd at best have a Stephen Foster and Whitney win in the US which isn't going to get it done against a (barf) Triple Crown winner despite his international accomplishments.

Who's Big Brown and why are there 2569 threads about him?

Some slow 3yo and it is cause no one wants to talk about Magnificience only beating her stablemate cause Mike Smith admitted after the race that he stopped on the horse so she didn't win.

"Some slow 3 yr. old" REALLY! In the last five years, only Barbaro was faster in The Kentucky Derby. That's a little extreme.

Oh, we believe in final times I see. That'll work for ya.

If you are using Beyers then the figure should have been 104. While with a clean trip he could have run 109 he certainly didn't under the circumstances.

As opposed to?

Isn't it past your bed time?

And doing it from the 20th post.

Good to know that Jazil and Birdstone are two of the three best winners of the Belmont in the past 13 years.

Mardi Gras beads.

This coming from somebody with 6,281 posts. Nice credentials. Thanks for the welcome.

I'm still trying to figure out which one of you is making these mults.

Yeah, I hadn't thought of that when I factored in his trip. Thanks for bringing this new fact to light. :rolleyes:

Yeah, Chuck, you really are a loser.

Well you got me there and point taken. I just think you saying Big Brown is a slow 3 yr old is a little reckless. He has beaten some odds so far.

He was out of racing for six months last fall healing up
He only ran three races before the Derby.
He won the Derby from Post 20

And all his wins are blow outs.

Based upon this thread I assumed you were 12. Sorry to have insulted you. By the way there is a no Big Brown posts after midnight rule. The 1000 or so threads about him are better served in daylight.

Tell me something I didn't know...

Point Given

I was kidding with the slow 3yo stuff. He's obviously a nice horse but he'd certainly be incredibly slow for a Triple Crown winner and should never be mentioned in the debates of great horses unless he throws up a monster performance in the Belmont. Yet he will just cause of so many people with no idea of what speed figures represent and a total lack of knowledge for how much faster horses have been in every other crop.

Will you explain to me the other ways of comparing horses if you throw out times. I honestly do not know so I would like to learn. I don't even know what Beyers means?

Times are meaningless unless apply track variant. Some days the track will be faster then others. I recommend you go onto amazon, type in beyer, and buy one of his books.

I will do that....thank you!

Do you think his odds will be even higher than 1-5 at Belmont?
He'll be 1-9 probably. The $2 win bet and if he wins keep as a souvineer will give you a higher ROI

If Big Brown wins the Triple Crown, is he a lock for Horse Of The Year even if he is not entered or loses Breeders Cup?
In 1978 I frankly thought Seattle Slew deserved HOY as he beat Affirmed in The Marlboro, however Slew finished 2nd in the JCGC but the best 2nd I have ever witnessed. IF Big Brown wins the TC he's HOY

How do you think Big Brown matches up against Curlin today?
It's a challenge for any 3 YO to beat an older horse. I think he matches up well though at this juncture but it's early in the year. Not putting the cart before the horse, I just hope we see these 2 race.

Can you name another horse or two that has had the type of explosiveness Big Brown has when called upon?
Currently Racing, perhaps Casino Drive. Big Brown's BIG question is seasoning. This is a lot for a horse to do.


It's not so much that Big Brown won impressively at The Kentucky Derby, but the fact that he did it from the 20th Post. I just think that is so incredible.[/i]
For whatever reason that seems to be dismissed because I agree winning from PP 20 is a tough chore, and the ease in which he won.

Thanks for the info. Does anyone know if any previous Triple Crown winners did not win HOY the year they won TC?

Big Brown will be 1-5 at Belmont, I think Curlin would dust him, and there are plenty of horses that have had Big Brown's "turn of foot". That's all I feel strongly enough to chime in on.

Just curious, do you ever make a 5-1 bet? I did in the Preakness but didn't win much. It still made watching the race more fun. Do you think BB could stand a chance at Curlin if both are injury free and ententered in Breeders Cup later this year?

I read the blogspot link you attached. Thank you! That guy makes a lot of sense to me.