Casino Drive Beyer vs Unbridleds Heart Beyer
 

Can someone explain how Unbridleds Heart got a 100 beyer and Casino Drive only a 99? I got the Unbridleds Heart Beyer at 100 but shouldn't than make Casino Drive a 104 or 105 beyer?

If you look at the Bold Ruler it was pretty obvious the track didn't speed up.

I like to use beyers but this 99 figure needs to be adjusted.

It doesn't really matter though, I think he needed the race and he wants more distance. My only fear is the Japanese come over here and bet him down to even money.

I think Beyer and Associates has significant shares in Unbridled's Song as a stallion, while they were burned a couple of years ago when they sold off their shares in A.P. Indy, who was beginning to look like a dud at the time. There is a bit of bias nowadays as far as certain bloodlines go.

Its racing's version of the Cold War.

were those race 1 or 2 turns? I know that if they were at 2 turns the 1:47 4/5 owuld be 7 pts higher. so even at 1 turn higher still i dont get it

How can you be taken seriously if you don't know that those distances at Belmont are around one turn?

The difference should be 5 points on raw figures. If making figures were as simple as using one variant for every race card, life would be easy. Now, I certainly question my share of Beyer figures, but I at least usually understand why the figure given was assigned. Obviously, in the case, the figure maker (Hopkins I assume) split the variant. I haven't looked at the whole card, only the routes, but even if there wasn't a race run after the Peter Pan there is a good basis for splitting the variant.

The reason, quite simply, is Mint Lane. You have a horse that has raced six times, 5 in similarly distanced races. He had run well on three occasions and earned Beyer figures of 86, 88, and 87. All of these were done running loose on the lead, ideal circumstances to record high figures. If you give Casino Drive a 105, you are saying Mint Lane suddenly, while dueling on the lead, rand a 96.

Possible? Sure it is. But what is more likely? With the Beyer of 99 assigned to the winner, Mint Lane gets a 90. I am not saying that is what I will go with, and look forward to going over the whole card soon. The last race will certainly play a factor in my decision.

Like I said, I don't always agree with Beyer or his associates, but it isn't like the figures are done haphazardly and spit out. If you don't like it, you can use BRIS or Equibase figures which are done mechanically. Good luck with that experiment.

Here is a link that contains the Beyer charts for future reference for those interested: http://www.angelfire.com/la2/wahoo/AB.SPRC.html.

thank you for not taking me seriously as I was just checking. how can you believe in a split variant in this case when the races not only were run on the same day but also without any significant change in conditions and were even not far apart in time between races?

Just busting your chops a little, don't take it serious...

All it takes is a little work on the track by the maintenance crew. There was a turf race in between, which is usually a prime time for working on the dirt track.

Understanding the horses in any given race is just as important at looking at how all the races relate to each other.

chops just slightly sore but thanks for the info

by the way ever see any beyer one turn charts for over a mile?

The time of the 10th race backs up the split variant.

Bravo!

raw beyer of 98 for mdspwt oops

No, you have to make them yourself. There are only a few tracks that do it (Bel, Cnl come to mind) so after a season or so it isn't too hard to figure them out.

first race at bel cheap claimer ran 89 raw so was it that different first to last?

The winner of the first had run his last three races with Beyers of 67, 61, and 60 with a last 10 top of 77. Now the last was a win, but he seems to be improving back towards that 77. He beat McCalmont by a nose, and that horse very consistently runs around 70. So I'd project a figure of around 71 for the race, meaning the track was fast by 18 points.

The last race was run with a raw figure of 99, a sorry off the turf contest for NY bred MSWs. The winner had one lifetime race where he ran well and earned a 67. The runner up is a pretty bad animal who ran a 38 in his lone start at 24 to 1. The 3rd place horse is a terrible maiden, Another Hades, destined for Finger Lakes. He is an up and down type in his 10 races, and when he runs well he tops out in the mid 60s.

The winner beat Another Hades by 5 lengths, which is about 12 points. If you assume he ran his best, which is a stretch, the winner projects to improve about 10 points to a 77, which is pretty reasonable. That means the track was 22 points fast, or four points faster than the first race. The Beyer guy changed the variant 6 points, and it makes sense to me because I doubt AH ran his top.

Of course, there are other races in between to consider as well, but this post is long enough already to make the general point.

CJ..

Thanks for the invaluable explanations... I know you've repeated this material many, many times and it must be drudgerous... But every time you do it, you answer many, many questions for people looking to understood the nuances of figures in general (and BSF's specifically), and many more that have always wanted to ask somewhere but felt intimidated in the setting.

So... thx.

CJ's explanation was excellent. Although I think the best way to understand how Beyer calculates his figs is to read Picking Winners and then read Beyer On Speed.

Beyer is an outstanding storyteller and does a great job mixing in stories of his experiences using his figs with how they are calculated.

CJ sucks and should be banned.

You just hate the Irish.

If you were Irish I would hate you more.

Excellent explanation, I know I posed this question this morning. But given that Mint Lane set a contested perhaps quicker than honest pace, and his previous beyers were as stated 86, 88, and 87 in more favorable pace scenarios. Was his 2nd place finish yesterday more flattering due to his lack of competition and if so Casino Drive's race while nice, was not as impressive as first visually thought. Personally I was more impressed by Harlem Rocker's race in the Withers.

say Big Brown has to run 9 furlongs @ GP from the 12 post. The beyer doesn't reward the 5 lengths he lost before the race in the draw.
Or say some cheap speed horse gets a 5 length lead at the half and runs an uncontested 6 furlongs in 1:09 = he doesn't get anything deducted for being dealt a beautiful hand.
There is no big brown , there is no cheap horse, all I see is a final time, and a track variant.


well that is the utopian view.

in reality we see projections, we see pre-judging a race or a horse by their ability or class. we see variants made by the evaluation of a horse, as opposed to the track.
All this, and these guys do a great job with the figures and produce a great resource for horseplayers. It's hard to make good figures and these guys do it.

Please expand on this.

Aren't numbers a subjective guess anyway? I think Steve was right earlier saying "Beyers don't do the actual running" All they offer us is an educated guess on a horses performance.

It is for this reason I am leaning on the side that Casino Drive's race was not as impressive as universally thought of. It was ok a good performance but nothing earth shattering in my eyes.

The main difference we have here is in Harlem Rocker's case as compared with the performance of Casino Drive's, is one horse ran down an already established horse in J BE K who was loose on the lead, with disdainful ease. The other ran down a tiring pace setter who is not in the same class at this point of J BE K. To me the numbers are an accurate reflection of this. No doubt in my mind which performance was better.

After what I posted, I'm pretty surprised to see the last race was given an 85. I'd love to hear the thinking on how 11 race maiden Another Hades suddenly ran a career best by 3 lengths while getting beaten rather easily.

This, in a nutshell, is why I make my own numbers. I think the New York guy, for one, makes a lot of mistakes. It will be interesting the track the top three from the last race.

I have no idea, I'm in Belgium. I was just saying it was possible. They always do something between races.

Am I the only one here that wasn't totally floored by Casino Drive's race Saturday?

I certainly wasn't floored. It was decent in my opinion, nothing more.

Thanks for the confirmation, I thought I may have been missing something...

I was. He ran a 101 beyer off a major layoff and he did it in his second career start. The jock was impressed and he made a point that Big Brown will have his hands full. He is going to love 12f. I think a 226 is possible and perhaps Big Brown can go even lower and beat him but I think this horse is going to put up a big time in that race.

So, you thought he might have said he wasn't impressed and that he couldn't possibly beat Big Brown?

Just a thought here...
Regarding the 10th race at Belmont on Saturday....I was expecting a very good effort from Phobia... he had been training very well on the training track at Saratoga...he demolished a couple of different workmates...he had a very good work from the gate....his gallop outs could have been a little better but nonetheless a much improved performance was expected....and in fact his performance was definately much improved...

His opening qtr in 22.17 and a final qtr in 24 & change with a final time of 1:10.60 for NYbred mdns was fast but the workouts that I saw suggested he was going to run very well

So, you can't wait to get 4:5 the next time he runs?

He is all yours next time....
what I was alluding to was that the time of the race may not have been totally due to a souped up track

He ran a 43, I believe, in his debut.

I don't have the form for Saturday here in front of me...I'll assume you are right....is your point that the improvement was too much to reasonably accept?

There is no doubt he improved, and I am certainly not surprised a second time starter would do so. However, with a Beyer of 85, were are asked to believe the winner improved 18 points off of a good effort first out, the runner up went from a 35 to an 80, and the long time maiden that ran 3rd went from a 41 to a 73, and improved a few lengths over his lifetime best as well. The 2 to 1 favorite ran about the same 55 he did last time finishing second as he did getting drubbed on Saturday.

It just doesn't pass the smell test. Keep in mind these are NY breds maidens, and the race was originally carded for turf. Good luck betting those horses off of the figures that will be in the DRF.

I'm not looking to bet any of those horses back...I'm just suggesting that the times may not have solely been due to a souped up track.

I think CJ made the point as well as possible. I don't think anybody was really using the less than surprising improvement by the second finisher to justify the split variant.