Big Brown Beyer 109
 

But, should it be?

If you look at the figures awarded in the other route races, one earlier in the card and one immediately after the Derby, it is apparent the Derby used a different variant from those.

Race 4, raw figure 107, Beyer 93, variant 14
Race 10, raw figure 118, Beyer 109, variant 9
Race 11, raw figure 97, Beyer 83, variant 14

So, if he had used the same variant, the Beyer for the Derby would be 104. Given all the ground loss, it certainly seems reasonable. I wonder why he didn't.

is 109 a good number for a Ky Derby?

I'm curious how much further BB ran than everyone else in the top 4.

Big Brown stayed far outside the whole trip while Tale of Ekati 4th looked to have the perfect trip. Imagine Calvin found the rail immediately on Denis of Cork 3rd and Eight Belles 2nd managed to stay out of trouble more or less 2-3 wide.

109 definitely seems a little high to me as well, though as always, cmorioles explains it as well as just about anybody could.

Yes, thanks cmorioles, and a big Happy Birthday too!

the number needs to be high or you would basically be saying the rest of the field ran in the low 90's. he is a very talented horse that happens to be beating very slow horses for grade 1 caliber 3yr olds.

1 - BIG BROWN 109 (Previous three Beyers: 106-106-90)
2 - Eight Belles 102 (Previous three Beyers: 99-91-96)
3 - Denis of Cork 97 (Previous three Beyers: 88-96-82)
4 - Tale of Ekati (93)
5 - Recapturetheglory (92)
6 - Colonel John (88)
7 - Anak Nakal (87)
8 - Pyro (87)
9 - Cowboy Cal (86)
10 - Z Fortune (80)
11 - Smooth Air (78)
12 - Visionaire (75)
13 - Court Vision (73)
14 - Z Humor (73)
15 - Cool Coal Man (62)
16 - Bob Black Jack (62)
17 - Gayego (55)
18 - Big Truck (37)
19 - Adriano
20 - Monba



Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures for last week's stakes races:

*Westchester (Bel): Divine Park (K. McLaughlin/A. Garcia) - 111
*Kentucky Derby (CD): Big Brown (R. Dutrow Jr./K. Desormeaux) - 109
*Churchill Downs (CD): Elite Squadron (J. Baker/J. Velazquez) - 105
*Turf Classic (CD): Einstein - Brz (H. Pitts/R. Albarado) - 103
*Nassau County (Bel): Zaftig (J. Jerkens/J. Chavez) - 101
*Alysheba (CD): Giant Gizmo (R. Frankel/R. Bejarano) - 100

*Inglewood (Hol): El Roblar (R. Mandella/V. Espinoza) - 99
*Humana Distaff (CD): Intangaroo (G. Sherlock/A. Quinonez) - 99
*Bouwerie (Aqu): Northern Nettie (R. Baker/E. Coa) - 99
*Kentucky Oaks (CD): Proud Spell (J. Jones/G. Saez) - 99
*Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (CD): Bayou's Lassie (D. Romans/E. Prado) - 98
*Turf Sprint (CD): Mr. Nightlinger (W. Calhoun/H. Theriot II) - 98
*Sumter (Crc): Imawildandcrazyguy (W. Kaplan/M. Cruz) - 97
*Mamzelle (CD): Just for Keeps (M. Maker/G. Gomez) - 97
*Chris Thomas Turf Classic (Tam): Revved Up (C. Clement/D. Centeno) - 97
*George Royal (Hst): True Metropolitan (T. Jordan/M. Gutierrez) - 97
*La Troienne (CD): Game Face (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) - 96
*Queenston (WO): Not Bourbon (R. Attfield/J. Jones) - 96
*Dashing Beauty (Del): Cash's Girl (T. Ritchey/P. Morales) - 95
*Shot of Gold (Cby): Tytus (J. Ness/P. Nolan) - 95
*Jackie Wackie (Crc): Fearless Eagle (E. Plesa Jr./M. Aguilar) - 94
*Louisville (CD): Ginger Punch (R. Frankel/R. Bejarano) - 94
*Tony Gatto Dream Big (Atl): Hesa Big Star (H. Wolfendale/H. Karamanos) - 94
*James B. Tafel Illinois Owners (AP): Lord Carmen (F. Kirby/R. Zimmerman) - 94
*Panhandle (Mnr): Bettin On M J (J. Cartagena/G. Almodovar) - 93
*Prairie Rose (PrM): Sole of the City (R. Brueggemann/I. Karlsson) - 93
*Hawthorne (Hol): Tough Tiz's Sis (B. Baffert/A. Gryder) - 93
*Tellike (EvD): Classify (S. Asmussen/D. Meche) - 92
*Need for Speed (EvD): John Charles (S. Breaux/G. Melancon) - 92
*Route 66 (WRD): Sumfun (W. Calhoun/C. Kimes) - 92
*American Turf (CD): Tizdejavu (G. Fox/G. Gomez) - 92
*Seattle (EmD): Nationhood (M. Chambers/R. Frazier) - 91
*Hasta La Vista (TuP): Mighty Bodacious (D. Vannorsdel/R. Eikleberry) - 90

*Timeless Native (AP): Coragil Cat (G. Geier/D. Sanchez) - 87
*Philmont (Pha): Monsoor (A. Velazquez/A. Prado) - 87
*Prairie Express (PrM): Magnus One (R. Brueggemann/I. Ocampo) - 86
*Naked Greed (Crc): Successful Love (M. Azpurua/D. Coa) - 86
*Music Prince (Bel): Mohegan Sky (L. Rice/A. Garcia) - 85
*Kentucky (CD): Run Away and Hide (R. Werner/R. Albarado) - 85
*Double Delta (AP): Dreaming of Liz (W. Catalano/E. Fires) - 84
*Edgewood (CD): Zee Zee (W. Mott/K. Desormeaux) - 84
*ATBA Sales (TuP): Big Bug Creek (K. Lewis/S. Gann) - 83
*Babst/Palacios Memorial (Beu): Catlaunch (I. Vazquez/I. Gonzalez), Dooze (M. Maker/V. Lebron) (*DEAD-HEAT) - 83
*Hookedonthefeelin (Pim): Dicey D J (L. Rice/A. Napravnik) - 81
*Jack Cole (SrP): Cattleman Prospect (R. Gonzalez/A. Medellin) - 80

wow. that is a slow group or just very distance challenged.

Your first point was well taken.. that the winner/runner up figs needed to be aligned so that the rest of the front half of the field fell in line. This point is a bit off the mark in that the typically strewn apart Derby field is always going to have stragglers with exceedingly slow numbers. The chart, and in fact most everything about this Derby, ended up pretty 'normal'... from the winner's fig to the running time/splits, etc.. The crop may prove out average or slighly below average once we get to the fall.

There's obviously one colt at the head of the class, but let the turf horses make their move to the grass, the one turners get back to sprinting, and the late developers catch up, and it could still turn out that this bunch is just a solid, typical crop.

There is no 'or' there. They are slow and distance challenged. Big Brown ran the last two furlongs in 25.25 and Denis of Cork was the only one to make up any ground on him and even he was coming home in 24.97. Anak Nakal plodded up for 7th finishing in an atrocious 26.09. The 'closer' Colonel John finished in 27.17 and still managed to finish 6th.

Gracias.

Full list of W/E BSF's
 

Weekend Beyer Speed Figures:

Westchester H. (Gr. III): Divine Park 111

Kentucky Derby (Gr. I): Big Brown 109
Churchill Downs S. (Gr. II): Elite Squadron 105
Woodford Reserve (Gr. I): Einstein 103
Nassau County (Gr. III): Zaftig 101
Alysheba (Gr. III): Giant Gizmo 100

Humana Distaff (Gr. I): Intangaroo 99
Kenucky Oaks (Gr. I): Proud Spell 99
Distaff Turf Mile (Gr. III): Bayou's Lassie 98
Aegon Turf (Gr. II): Mr. Nighlinger 98
La Troienne (Gr. III): Game Face 96
Louisville (Gr. II): Ginger Punch 94
Amer. Turf (Gr. III): Tizdejavu 92

Kentucky S. (Gr. II): Run Away and Hide 85

Hmmm... again, another massaged group of Beyer numbers from Friday's Oaks. No way the Giant Gizmo # should be higher than Proud Spell's, on raw time she was 2 lengths faster (unless Giant Gizmo could miraculously run a final 1/16th in 6 seconds flat), and one could argue the track was in even worse shape and slower by the Oaks than the Alysheba.

So Big Brown had a nightmare trip of ground loss on both turns, close to a solid pace, yet improved 3 points over his Florida Derby effort? Don't buy it, he is a 104-106 type horse running against a really bad bunch.

Ground loss is not relevant in BSF's...

You decided he's a "104-106 type horse' (whatever that is supposed to be) based on 2 dirt track starts? His 2nd and 3rd career starts overall? And he has that fixed ceiling? 104-106? That's not exactly how horses, especially in the spring of their 2 year old year, develop.

I know ground loss is not relevent but a horse loses that much ground it gets much harder to run a career top at 10 furlongs....at least that is my thinking. He should have got a 104, I give him a bit of a trip so I can see him around 106 for this type of race.

He is beatable if a horse like Harlem Rocker shows up and improves of his last. Big Brown is not as good a horse as street sense if you ask me at this point.

^^^ I pretty much agree with that... If hooked with Kentucky Bear and Harlem Rocker, it will get mighty interesting.

Agree with both of you on the Harlem Rocker statement. He is a serious horse, maybe the only other one in this whole crop (Kentucky Bear I have an affinity for but he's not the talent of these two... I don't think he is, at least).

As stated above, this number was fabricated to fit better. His real performances, if taken in the context of how Beyer ORIGINALLY intended them to be created would have been 104, 113, 104 (and the turf race debut would have been MUCH, MUCH higher than the 90 it was assigned).

I was going to bring that up as well...Proud Spell should have gotten higher than a 99.

Steve this crop flat out stinks. Big Brown is a very nice colt and certainly has a license to move forward...Although this retarded Preakness isn't goint to do a thing for him.. The colt has raced 4 times unfortunately he has raced against no one so who really knows what he is made of. I suggest we won't no the colts true ability till he try older more accomplished company as he cant race against his best 3 year old peers since they will be in the Acorn Coaching Club and Alabama..lol

I think it's the first time I've heard a race referred to as retarded.

Fred..

I know.. But.. it always pays to wait until the fall to get a true read. Harlem Rocker, Lt. Ron, KY Bear, other lightly-raced types we haven't seen... give them a chance to race themselves into the picture.

And remember that the unprecocious Mineshafts and Empire Makers should continue to get better as they mature. (Which would be a good thing as it would preclude them returning as older horses, etc...)

Don't for get about Keep Laughing and Hatta Fort.

Sounds like the Beyer guys blew the 2 big races.

It does seem odd to me that Proud Spell only got a 99, even though I don't know much about Beyers (her race to me was better than Zaftig's, even though I love both fillies, and it would seem she should get at least the same figure...they were relatively close at least). However, I do have one question. Someone was saying with the bad trip and ground loss (which Steve then said doesn't factor in) Big Brown should have gotten a lower figure. To me, if a horse has a bad trip/goes against a bias/etc (those don't all apply to BB obviously), shouldn't his Beyer be higher than a horse that had a great trip/was with the bias/etc?

For what it's worth, here are Dr Roman's Performance Figures (I have used these the past 10 years as they seem to me much more accurate than Beyer numbers), they do take into account aspects of the trip not considered by Beyer...the lower the number, the better:
2008 Derby:
Big Brown...-68
Eight Belles...-51
Denis of Cork...-34
2007 Derby:
Street Sense...-52
Hard Spun...-49
Curlin...-29
Also, here are the PF's for the last 10 winners:
2008...Big Brown...-68
2007...Street Sense...-52
2006...Barbaro...-60
2005...Giacomo...-48
2004...Smarty Jones...-63
2003...Funny Cide...-60
2002...War Emblem...-61
2001...Monarchos...-75
2000...FuPeg...-57
1999...Charismatic...-48
Obviously, Dr Roman's figures contradict the notion that this is a bad group, except for Monarchos who absolutely freaked in the 2001 Derby, Big Brown stands above recent winners. Time will tell but for a horse to get such a number in only his fourth lifetime start would seem to indicate that his PF's will continue to increase. Every year, I hear "this is a crappy crop of three year olds"...especially after a horse such as Barbaro, Smarty Jones and Big Brown romp in the Derby...of course it's way too early to judge and as Kasept pointed out, many Derby horses were that in name only as their connections caught "Derby fever" as some do every year. Once they sort themselves out, some will be turf horses, sprinters and yes...like almost every year, claimers, while "new faces" will appear to challenge...I look forward to the Preakness and the next wave of contenders. But if he stays healthy...Big Brown will be something special, as a fan, I can only dream of him and Curlin facing off sometime down the road. I know recent history indicates this may never happen but that's the beauty of this sport...the possibilities!

.....wow, this horse HAS PAID WORKOUTS...... he in my opinoin a better horse than streat sense.......

That isn't the way Beyers work. They are based directly on raw time related to the speed of the track, not on trip. In this case the figure should have been 104. If they weren't confident enough in the 109 to adjust the other two races 5 points upward then they should have stuck with 104. I don't like splits to improve a figure by 5 points at all.

The LOWER the # the better?

In case anyone wonders, Big Brown's Derby was not rated higher than his super impressive Fla Derby as his PF there was -89.

it's beyond the numbers that i wonder about

did you see that big brown didnt even look like he ran a race as he came back to get unsaddled? he is a freak.

Alright Sniper, thanks. I'm still trying to figure out how Beyers are calculated and learn more about them (I mean, I know what's good, bad, etc, but how they're figured out).

No doubt. ANYONE can "see" that the FD was more impressive than
the DERBY.:rolleyes:

I suspect Beyer used an independent variant for the same reason Jerry Brown did at Thorograph and posted about yesterday:

don't have trackman work yet, but if the wind was as strong (24mph) as they reported on TV and in their faces leaving the Derby gate, it would slow down the time for that race significantly (they run through the stretch twice), and speed up the times for the one turn races significantly, especially for the ones longer than 6f. This is going to come up a very big figure-- On Beyer it would be about neg 2 TG, before adjusting for ground.

Just the timing is so counterproductive

He was tired. Not exhausted, but tired. A freak would be a horse throwing up a sub 2:00 time with a 115 beyer. He is actually just very typical of most derby winners. Nothing more. He just hasn't had to beat much. They all eventually get tested unless they are retired and you will soon see he is much more like a Hard Spun or Street Sense than a Secretariat. Hopefully he will hang around but somebody like Curlin or even the late developing Harlem Rocker will give us a real picture of him. Those feet will eventually get him if he goes the 3 races in 5 weeks. That is just the reality of it.

It was very very windy and the wind could not have been beneficial on the other hand the track was kind of firm and I suspect extremely fast

good luck with the Mineshafts and iI would think Empire Maker is much more of a turf stallion then dirt. EM was bred to mostly turf producers and turf performers.