Big Brown Scareoff
 

Or so says the article on bloodhorse. Let me get this right....none of the 18 other Derby starters are going to Baltimore?!?!? huh? Now I realize he looks like a monster, but that is total BS....take the unfortunate incident with Eight Belles and combine that with Big Brown being the only Derby starter to run in the Preakness and what do you get? Zero interest in the Preakness......Then a handfull of well rested Derby starters will have a go in 5 weeks at the Belmont when Big Brown goes for the triple crown....I realize that there will always be some defections but no one running against him....ridiculous....

It's early, I wouldn't be suprised if some reconsider as we get closer to the race.

i think it's just the morning after blues...some of the horses who might not go will come out of the derby fine, and plans will change.
or maybe they won't. but the preakness will not just get handed to big brown, nor will the belmont or triple crown.
remember the gang tackle of smarty a few years ago in elmont? if big brown wins it, he'll earn every bit of it.
but he has to win it...i've seen writers already giving him the preakness. but we've been there before, more than once. there's a long list of horses, some more seasoned and some who turned out to be truly great, who came up short.
good, lucky, healthy...he needs all that and more.

Why should any of those horses run in the preakness, I am sure most of them came to the conclusion after watching their horses walk home that the pundits were right, we are not very fast. Even the Belmont seems like a real stretch for most of these, I guess Dennis of Cork. Its going to take a new shooter to beat these, and I have seen a couple but I dont think they will be ready by the Belmont.

Mark my words.... 6 or 7 horse field in the Preakness.... 4 horse field in the Belmont....and ultimately a Triple Crown winner.... yippee

I would say the chances of beating him in the Preakness are poor.Yes,I think there is a 3 year old that could beat him,but he would be only with two and a half weeks rest.I don't think he will try it.I think he will wait until the Belmont to try him.Either of those 2 horses who came top 2 at Hollywood on Wednesday would have huge chances in the Belmont.

that's what was said when smarty was running. didn't pan out that way. and i doubt it does here.

If he wins that Preakness,they will show up to face him in that Belmont.Trainers know they have a big advantage if they bring a fresh horse against him going 12f.They won't be afraid of him.Why should they try to beat him in the Preakness? The Belmont they get an edge against him.The Preakness isn't a tiring track.Why would you show up to face him there? The only horses who should show up there are horses with distance issues.

Exactly, why would you run your horse in the Preakness with little chance to beat him. The horses bred to get the 1 1/2 should rest and take their shot in the Belmont.

Day after is all knee-jerk reactions, banter, etc. Trainers will think it through and make their decisions. The bad decisions come from those who said "no" planned on not going, went home, etc. Then, they changed their minds when they saw who was going, wasn't going, etc.

Eric

If you run up the track in the Derby, and you have good breeding, it makes little sense to wheel back when you can be fresh in five weeks for the 12 furlong Belmont.

This is ridiculous. If you owned the horse you would just run him in the Preakness? In this day and age where horses don't run very often, it is important to give them there best chance to win. Running against a healthy Big Brown in the Preakness is not their best chance.

Why is it when I watch the Australian races, horses run 1 1/4 miles on Sunday, then a few days later, 4 or 5 of those same horses are running in a 1 1/2 mile race on Friday?

There may be a somewhat short field in the Preakness (I still say 7-8 horses show up), but there's no way in hell there will be four horses in the Belmont. Too many things can happen at 12 furlongs, and trainers from the Derby will have well-rested horses. I don't think there'll be less than 10 horses in the Belmont, no matter what happens in the Preakness.

I believe Harlem Rocker will be running in the Preakness. I'm not saying he'll beat Big Brown or even be near him but there's a few similarities between Big Brown/Harlem Rocker from this year and Barbaro/Bernardini two years ago. Harlem Rocker's pps look eerily similar to Bernardini's, and Big Brown was every bit as impressive a Derby winner as Barbaro was.

There's gonna be strong pressure on Stronach to run him in the Preakness, but they sounded pretty ardent about going to beat up on some hosers.

Why can't they do both?? Queen's Plate is 5 weeks after the Preakness.

Good point.

I was speaking on it from the perspective of tradition and what the triple crown series is supposed to be about in my opinion. It's just my opinion that the entry should be into the series and not just the Derby. It's all about greed...

No, it's all about the horse. There's no reason to enter a horse that just went through the most rigorous race of his life two weeks later if he doesn't have a legitimate shot. Of course it's kinda lame that not one in 18 is willing to wheel back, but saying that it's about greed is incorrect.

It is easy to make opinions about other people's investments. You have to do what is best for your horse. The best thing in my opinion would to take the 5 weeks and try to beat Big Brown in the Belmont, if he makes it there undefeated.

no, you're right. i would think one or two horses from yesterday, who may not want any part of 12f, may end up in md.
my contention is that it won't be that very small field in the belmont that some are saying will be there.
but someone, or two, will try to beat him in maryland...if he shows up.

So has anyone been over to the barn this morning, and looked at Big Brown's feet? (I checked Bloodhorse, and nothing). How are the front shoes holding on? Was he being walked? Sound?

Let's hope it is REALLY similar to Barbaro/Bernardini....except that Big Brown just takes a bad step and loses without injury. IEAH winning the triple crown would be horrific for racing.

you know, i'd rather big brown win the thing than suffer an injury. how ridiculous!

Why should anyone run back in 2 weeks after losing the KD ? Fuhgeddaboutit.

Would they ever consider letting Proud Spell run in the Preakness? I don't know if she could beat Big Brown, but I think she would hit the board.

yea, I think Larry Jones is thinking that exact thing today.

And on what basis are you saying that?

Kinda seems unlikely that they'd try the boys again considering what just happened to Eight Belles. Not saying that she broke down because she was trying the boys, but many interpret it that way, and I doubt they'd want to seem callous.

Agreed, two weeks rest is just not worth it for the horse, the Oaks winner with a bright future, and the connections, getting over the Derby. My opinion zero chance.

Spyder

big brown 'looked the picture of health' this morning, according to drf. he walked the shed row. dutrow says he'll stay at churchill til may 14, and ship then to md.
recapture's owner will decide tomorrow, but other than that, no one seems interested in following up their derby loss with a race vs big brown...til new york.
kentucky bear (:rolleyes: ) and el gato malo are possibles for the preakness.

No one else ran well enough yesterday to warrant going to Pimlico in 2 weeks. If you feel that you have a horse that can go a mile and a half, give him the 5 weeks off and wait for the Belmont. I think you will see Big Brown go against 5 locals and maybe 1 or 2 mid level stakes/Grade 3 type horses. People just trying to get a second place check in a big race.

yeah....but.
like dahoss said what about point given (among others)? he finished fifth in his derby...presumably not 'good enough' to warrant a trip to md. but he went, and he won and started a streak of four gr 1 million dollar wins in a row. i think it depends on the horse tho. everyone needs to consider their own horse, how he ran, whether he ran, how he came out of it, whether he can handle belmont, etc.

Point Given was considered the best horse going into the derby...realistically I don't think any of the owners or trainers actually think they can beat Big Brown on a speed favoring tight turned Pimlico course

Yeah but the winner's share is 600,000 or more. That's what will bring out the horse's. Just like in the Derby and in last year's Preakness anything can happen when the gates open.

Comparing PG to the group that ran yesterday (except Eight Bells who was awesome) is not right. Going into yesterday most people thought that this was a pretty slow/bad bunch. If you took BB and Eight Bells out of the equation and ran the race 10 times, How many different winners would you get? I know I played 5 horses in differnent combos and not one hit the board. The bottom line is that there are still alot of 3 year old races left in the campaign, Why rush into a race in 2 weeks against a horse that won for fun yesterday while being 4 wide the entire race, when there are better spots to run down the road? This might be a big year for the West Virginia Derby!

You need to win to get the winners share, and most of the trainers of the also rans don't think they will beat Big Brown. Otherwise they would be considering it. There are a lot of Stakes races coming up whose winners purse will be larger than the 2nd place money in the Preakness.

The Preakness pays $200,000 for second and $110,000 for third, plus you get a Grade 1 stakes placing and some media attention before the race. For those reasons alone, some of the Derby shooters will show up.