DERBY NOTES (4/24-25): 'Spell' to Oaks only..
 

Big Brown has his penultimate scheduled workout (Palm Meadows) today. The Rick Dutrow trainee will not arrive at CD until Monday...

Cool Coal Man works this morning at Churc hill after the break (8:30am).. It is his last serious drill preparing for Derby..

Most Churchill based Derby horses will gallop today:

Adriano
Anak Nakal (works Friday)
Col. John
Court Vision
Denis of Cork
Gayego
Halo Najib (jogging only)
Pyro
Recapturetheglory
Smooth Air
Z Fortune
Z Humor

Smooth Air's gallop girl (Suzie) will give way to his specified workout rider (Jody) for his last pre-Derby workout on Sunday. Jody, who works at Calder as a mutuel in the afternoon, is being flown in Saturday night for the workout and then heads back to Miami. Jody is no stranger to preparing horses for big races, having been picked up casually to gallop and exercise LOST IN THE FOG by Greg Gilchrist. Her work on LITF so pleased Gilchrist, that whenever 'Fog' came to the East Coast to race, Jody was flown in to work him in the mornings...

Visionaire, as well as Eight Belles and Proud Spell, are scheduled to arrive at Churchill Friday from Keeneland...

More notes after the busy morning...

Big Brown sizzled in a sharp :58+ five-eighths move earlier this morning at Palm Meadows Training Center, his last serious work before the Derby. Rick Dutrow, reached by DRF's Mike Welsch, said while the work was faster than he was looking for, he was not concerned about it being 'too fast"

Big Brown is scheduled for a likely 3f blow out over the Churchill surface sometime next week.

What do you think about him not getting one work over the CD surface?

From a DRF article yesterday:

There were no Derby workers on Wednesday. The morning's most impressive performance by a Derby candidate came from the Illinois Derby winner, Recapturetheglory, who galloped a strong two miles, keeping a straight and true course down the center of the track throughout both tours of the one-mile oval.

Trainer Louie Roussel Jr. was so taken by the performance that he immediately notified the media that he had canceled the work he had scheduled for Recapturetheglory on Thursday morning. Roussel pushed the drill back to Saturday, weather permitting.

"He's doing so well now he doesn't need two more works before the Derby," Roussel said.

Not a big issue really. Giacomo and Funny Cide didn't have works here as recent examples that come to mind.

Bigger issue for the horses that aren't 'dirt' experienced.

As an example, Colonel John and Adriano both were on track today and looked good. Adriano cantered lightly and I only saw the Santa Anita Derby winner stand, but he makes a grand impression. Their works on the CD strip will be more important than Big Brown not working over it.

I think a workout or race over a surface is overrated. Either he's going to like the track or he isn't. If he's going to like it, he won't need a work over it beforehand. If he isn't going to like it, I think it's better to not work on it first. There's a school of thought that says if a horse doesn't like a surface, his best effort over it will come in the first one because whatever it is they don't like about the track, they remember it the second time. Say for instance, a track stings their feet. They remember that the next time and run a poorer race.

I knew Giacomo didn't work @ CD, but didn't realize Funny Cide had not.

Very interested in Colonel John's work this weekend. This from the DRF caught my eye:

Colonel John had his second opportunity to try the Churchill Downs strip on a warm, sun-drenched morning shortly after the renovation break on Wednesday. And while the gallop went without incident, Colonel John, a well-made son of Tiznow, gave the appearance he still might not be completely comfortable over the surface. He strode along more like he was still testing and acclimating himself to the new footing rather than reaching out, as one would expect he usually does over familiar ground back home.

Now that he's here, watch for Mike Welsch's workout patrol reports. Few can tell us how a horse is handling the surface better then Mike.

Thanks for the info, Steve ... I'm hoping Colonel John takes to the dirt surface. :cool:

He that lives upon hope will die fasting.~benjamin franklin.


i like col john, have him in my rttr....but .....

Thanks for doing all of this, Steve. I love reading Haskin's reports on TBH, but I don't know if you always get the greatest of evaluations in those articles as nearly every horse moves well and has a great looking coat.

mike welsch patrol reports
 

where can i find mike welsch's patrol reports? i think they will give me a good idea on the horses i would like to eliminate in my tri for the derby. thanks

DRF in the Derby Section..

Here's the link: http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...r/clocker.html

Here is a nice read.

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44790

One more mention of your RTTR, Zeig. One more..

Syn Tracks
 

Is there really that big a difference between dirt and synthetic surfaces?? I have walked the tracks at Turfway and Keeneland and they seem predominately dirt with carpet and tire fragments mixed in. Obviously these substances would lessen the concussive shock but they still seem pretty similar to a dirt surface in terms of footing. Big Brown 5F in 58. Pretty fast but Hard Spun worked 5F in 57 last year and ran a bang up race. Was BB ridden by a jockey or a larger ex rider???

ENORMOUS. The racing evidence has shown some synthetics to be as different from dirt as grass is. Keenland used to get 40% wire jobs in routes but the first spring on poly delievered less than 5%. That doesn't mean all synthetics are the same and it doesn't mean a horse can't handle both, but you can't consider them the same.

:D

sorry...wasn't trying to be tiresome, just wanted to point out i guess that i do like the horse.
but for the derby? maybe not so much, especially if he's not showing he's comfortable on what is to him a very foreign surface.

there isn't a bit of dirt in a synthetic mix. it's silica sand mixed with fibers and such. you have to consider it as a separate surface. it's not comparable to dirt, other than it isn't green!!

Rich Migliore will now ride Bob Black Jack if he gets in with David Flores jumping to Behindatthebar.

When did they decide to wreck Behindatthebar by running him into the ground? Sad the way Derby fever helps make bad decisions.

Good chance Migliore will be watching the Derby on TV. BBJ needs three defections from the following list:

Massive Drama (probable defection)
Salute the Sarge (probable defection)
Proud Spell (50-50 i'll bet)
Eight Belles (going)
Behindatthebar (going)

....or, he needs two from the above, plus an injury.

Proud Spell is much less likely as an entrant to the Derby as of late yesterday afternoon according to media representatives at Churchill. While final decisions for Larry Jones and his two big fillies are pending until they work over the weekend, indications are more solid that Eight Belles (Rick Porter) is Derby-bound and Proud Spell (Brereton Jones) Oaks-committed.

CURRENT EARNINGS LIST REFLECTING NO PROUD SPELL:

1 Pyro 1,020,000
2 Tale of Ekati 738,000
3 Colonel John 720,000
4 Gayego 640,000
5 Big Brown 600,000

6 Z Humor 579,000
7 Monba 515,000
8 Court Vision 331,872
9 Z Fortune 329,000
10 Adriano 310,000

11 Recapturetheglory 300,000
12 Smooth Air 290,000
13 Cool Coal Man 212,767
14 Anak Nakal 212,216
15 Eight Belles (f) 210,000

16 Cowboy Cal 207,660
17 Behindatthebar 204,500
18 Visionaire 202,500
19 Big Truck 194,500
20 Bob Black Jack 180,000
-------------------------
21 Denis of Cork 165,000
22 Halo Najib $157,996
23 Indian Sun $154,000
24 Tomcito $151,292

New partner buying in to 'BATB'..
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...226#post357226

It's too bad a horse like BATB will keep a colt with a better chance like Denis out of the race.

DOC may have a better chance than BATB, but he really isn't #21 overall, but moved up the list because of War Pass, Salute The Sarge, maybe Proud Spell, etc. So you're looking at a horse who was more like 25th in earnings and dug his own grave by a strange Spring campaign. Even if Hawthorne had a rail bias that day, a slightly better showing and he'd be in. Maybe they should be grateful that he's actually at #21?

From what I have seen Behindatthebar will out run Dennis of Cork. I just dont like the fact that his last 2 races are so close while trying to go 1 1/4 with the top of his class.

Well, 21 relative to the current standings... I honestly could care less if DoC gets in anyway, he's not among my list of contenders that can win the race. I just rate him as having a better shot than BATB.

They wouldn't be grateful at all.. Horse is doing fabulous and Carroll would really like to get the chance here. Peter Pan or Preakness are the alternatives..

After the tremendous workout the other day, Denis of Cork returned to the track yesterday and just looked powerful and fluid and eager to do more. Anyone who was a backer of the colt before the intrusion of Warren "advisors" Mark Reid and Mike Ryan should be hoping things fall his way and he runs.

It's a good thing ( for you at least ) that you didn't have a mancrush on Jim Jones.

Chortle..

What can I tell ya? Horse is doing great... Was cheated out of an opportunity to follow through on the desired path laid out by his trainer last winter, and I'd like to see him given a chance to prove himself since he's this close...

i liked denis of cork, until the train derailed...of course that has nothing to do with the horse or his ability.
but i don't know that even if he got in i'd give him much shot. of course the figs say he's sitting on a big one.;)

Well, the winter book exacta I made with him and Make the Point is dead so I really don't care.

I beg to differ.

However, if he gets in the race I think he's worth considering. I mean, he's no Smooth Air, we all know that, but he might have a shot.

Yeah DoC will have a 10% chance of winning if they go 20 and 43 up front.

Well, he's one of the VERY few horses who has actually flashed some ability and comes into this race with a legitimate excuse. Considering that is a big part of how I handicap in general he makes a lot of sense to me. Whether or not he is good enough, of course, is the bigger question.

Other than the fact that the connections rival the Knicks front office in ineptitude...

Being horribly mismanaged by his TG infatuated owners is a legitimate excuse?

I have a nice futures bet on DoC, but Behindatthebar went out and did what he needed to do his last race, while DoC didn't do crap.