Biggest Overlay on Derby Day?
 

Their price in relation to them winning their Derby...

Any guesses?

Big Brown (if he goes off at 4/1 or higher, which I doubt but so many seem to think is possible)

Bob Black Jack (at anything above 25/1, which is likely)

Pyro (if he goes off at 10/1 or higher, which after his performance on the junk is possible)

If you look at the current future odds, Smooth Air at 45-1 is nice. I'd take Eight Belles at 25-1, but I'm thinking she'd be less than that if she actually starts.

eight belles may be less than that, but i would be VERY surprised to see her less than double digits.

Visionaire

Let's hope her connections come to thier senses and go in the Oaks! ;)

i'd run her on saturday. no guts no glory.

Big Brown will be 5-2 or less, doubt Bob Black Jack will be that much & Pyro looks about 8-1 and got the best shot of the three you listed.

But, I got her @ 22-1 in the 1st Oaks future pool :o nice to have extra dough the next day! ;)

less?! i think 5-2 is too low.

lol
well, good luck anyway. but i'd like to see her on saturday. she's got a ready made excuse if she loses, but if she wins....
immortality. hell, we might even have a thread on here after asking if she is 'better' than winning colors!:cool:

I'd be shocked if he was more than 7-2, Colonel John should be 2nd choice (5-1 to 7-1) & Pyro (6-1 to 9-1)

She's good.....for 2008, but Winning Colors.....:rolleyes:

yeah, i know.. i was remembering the rags/winning colors thread when i wrote that. VERY much tongue in cheek.

Without much hesitation, Rags to Riches Belmont, Winning Colors 88, Genuine Risk 80, Regret 1915?...go for immortality in a year like this. I still remember thinking Silverbulletday would have roasted that field in 1999 but Baffert sent the wrong filly. Who knows if she would have won, but she sure looked like a champ with the ease in which she took the Oaks. Talk about a push button filly.

:D

yeah, 1915. sticks in my head, along with so much other useless trivia.
what the hell, send eight belles and pure clan to the derby.

Game 7!!! :)

Oh overlay...BBJ maybe

yeah, just changed the sig! awesome, but godd--n Versus. showing the effing boston game. BOSTON. who cares?!?! had to listen on the radio via the internet. man, the one reason i hate living where i live.

Can't wait. I will be there tomorrow night.

lucky!!!! enjoy the game, hope to the hockey gods we move on to round two!

whats wrong you boys don't get comcast!!!!

F Philly, let's go caps!!!!!

-bt-

i have dish, as there isn't a cable in sight out here in the boonies. i did tell tony this evening that i was tempted to get directv just for nfl and hockey. that went over well. :rolleyes:

Two words...

S I S

C I T Y

Excellent Meeting finished a good 5th in the '99 Derby, closing with a flourish. Silverbulletday was done after a mile in the Belmont.

Excellent Meeting was a solid filly, but SBD was spectacular on her days. She won the Oaks at 9f easily when asked. That's as confident of a ride as you ever saw out of Stevens. Also crushed the fillies by 9 L at 10f in the Alabama. She was due for a rest when she went to the Belmont and was used too fast trying to go on the front. IMO, she's right there with Rags and Serena's Song as the best 3yo fillies of the last 15 years or so.

I'd guess the biggest overlay of the day will be on the Derby undercard.

There is always a sprint race on the undercard. Anyone know who is pointing to this race?

big brown 4-1 or higher, good luck on that one. i can't bet him even if he wins, which i think he can't. if pyro is anything over 6-1 jump all over it ! classic derby , the horse loses the prep only to come back and win at good odds. want me to start naming all the ones that have done it before. thunder gulch, funnycide, unbridled, giacomo, street sense, manarchos , and thats off the top of my head, in recent memory. didn't secretariat lose the wood , oh yeah he did! since when is a horses form determined by one race , especially when there is no need to win. the last race was a walk in the park on poly crap,i'm hoping he is over 10-1 !

Really? By my unofficial count the last 15 or more derby winners finished their final prep 4th or better. Not 10th. Maybe you can blame the poly but derby winners do prep better than that usually.

Big difference in Pyro's awful Blue Grass and Funny Cide and Monarchos' Wood Memorials. Neither of those two won it, but both very respectable and obviously got a lot out of their efforts. Giacomo ran good in the SA Derby, I think it was a hard charging 3rd in a very flukey race where I think Buzzards Bay won. Street Sense ran very well in the Blue Grass losing by a head bob to Dominican in his first try on the junk.

Pryo in one word was awful. I dont think he got much out of it and this places added pressure on the trainer to get him extra fit off just workouts. Not a real good plan.

street sense ran well, he lost to dominican, who he was probably daylight better than at the time. on dirt i think he beat dominican by over 15 lengths. that poly crap is just that crap. the truth is street sense probably ran 10 lengths worse than any other race he ran, that day. i love the defection the price will just go up. he didn't need anything out of that race, but to stay fresh and out of trouble. pyro fired his best race of a layoff as long as he healthy i'm not worried at all. good at 2 better at 3, he loses once and everbodies reading the crap these people write in the paper and form at derby time. i guess hes the highest money earner by "magic" too .

excellent point if poly had been around 15 years or the derby was being run on poly.

or pyro had run a comparably bad race on dirt.

i find it easier to throw out derby history in this circumstance than all the dirt races the horse has run.

Overlay
 

I would consider Z Fortune an overaly at 20/25-1 with a few things to like