Is Haskin joking?
 

I like his picks...at this point. This years race will be different, much different.

Well then good luck, sir.

No.

Wow, I am not even considering using 7 out of his top ten. Colonel John, Tale of Ekati, and Visionaire are the ones I am considering using....

he wins, and I leave Churchill with car keys and half my wallet

I'm not completely anti-Z Fortune.

i love his comments on COURT VISION.... exactly what i have been saying all along....

his thoughts from ATR first hour last night, help make sense of his article.

Monba #1 is pretty funny.

I have to think he just got his dates mixed up and the ratings he came up with were meant as an April fools joke.

Funny, but Monba reminds me of another Pletcher/Starlight runner; Purge. I liked him after his Cash Call Futurity effort and was my #1 three year old in January, glad he found the winner's circle in the Bluegrass and will use him in gimmicks.....but hard press seeing him winning. But, unlike others...I see him getting better as the year goes on. He should be 20-1 or more and will probably be around a lot longer than Big Brown, War Pass or Pyro.

Saw Mr. Haskin was just online...no reply...dang, I was hoping he would.

Monba isn't nearly as hopeless as some of you are making him out to be. Now Court Vision...that horse is hopeless.

Mr. Byk e-mailed and suggested I chime in and have fun with this thread. Why not? In a year like this, you gotta lighten up. 90% of us are gonna look like dummies after the race anyway, so might as well go down solo and not with the crowd with Colonel John and Big Brown. As far as whether I'm serious or not...a little bit. As far as whether I bet (the Derby)...a little bit. Do I really like anyone this year? No. For a price I'll look at Smooth Air and Adriano, and maybe Court Vision to hit the board. After that, take your pick. I just figured if I liked Monba enough in January to put him #2 in my first Derby Dozen, why not have some fun and put him #1 after winning the Blue Grass. Any other year I wouldn't even consider it.

I forgot to add Z Fortune as a potential live longshot; just not sure about his pedigree, but his Arkansas Derby reminded me a lot of Grindstone's and Lil E. Tee's. All opinions can, and likely will, change dramatically after I see the horses train and in the flesh. That's where you find most of your Derby winners, not in the past performances.

Z Fortune is one of the few horses in the race that actually makes a little sense.

Truer words have never been written about handicapping the Derby.

You sunk Pyro right off of the top 10 - because of a non-effort in a race where the 9th, 10th, and 11 place finishers were last out winners of the Fountain of Youth, La Derby, and Tampa Derby.

Nevermind the fact that the top four finishers had last out dirt Beyers of 33, 58, 76, and 86. - the career top on dirt among the top four was a 93 earned by Kentucky Bear - who was 50/1 on the morning line in the race.

It's not like everyone didn't know that the Blue Grass was going to be pure chaos going into the race - and I think it's a folly to take the result of the race at face value - let alone make such decisive Derby decisions on the basis of the result.

I just don't know where Monba's good race is on dirt. He's run three pretty good races over synthetic - his dirt win came with just an 86 Beyer and a perfect trip (unarguably the fields best trip) - his non-effort in the Fountain Of Youth should be held against him no more than Pyro's non effort in the Blue Grass.

If you can overlook the way Pyro exploded past him in the lane in the Risen Star - and his next out non-effort in the Rebel.

Thanks Steve, you always need luck in this race and this year even more. If you covered the entire field and anybody but Big Brown, Colonel John or Pyro wins.....you should show a profit. Hell, that's the way my late dad use to do it! :)

I think the thing with zfortune that woke me up was his post position in the Ark derby. I rememeber reading a story that when smarty was going for the 5mil bonus after he left from 11 i think in the ark derby and won,granted he rolled in that race, the owners of Oaklawn strated getting nervous and while he didn't win he put in a pretty good race i think. would think that he will have pretty good odds and may liven things up in the exotics. Another thing to think about is that everyone is going to be talking about Pyro and how many times have we seen where a trainer has some horses in and everyone gets on the "one" and the others are left out it is sometimes that other horse that runs big. I can think of real quiet=indian charlie? and peace rules=empire maker. What do i know just food for thought.

I ran this scenario through my head this afternoon. Prado will probably stay on Tale of Ekati for the Derby. What if Pletcher has Johnny V ride Monba and have Luzzi (or similar jock) on Cowboy Cal just to add to the early pace (rabbit). Just something to think about. I've been a fan of Monba since his allowance win at CD and this could be his best chance in a wide open Derby.

I like SH's dozen at this point, but will wait for the CD workouts/Draw to make final decision. Of course, then you have how the track is playing on Derby day to deal with.

In the sheets era of bad efforts being good and great efforts being bad he is looking better all the time

I'm not sure Cannon - I don't pretend to be Lenny Friedman or Jerry Brown - but wouldn't Z Fortune be a big "bounce" candidate?

I don't have his sheet numbers - but he'd run Beyers of 87 and 82 in the Risen Star and Rebel - and soared to a 102 Beyer (with a very wide trip) that is a significant new top.

As I recall, when a 3yo with just six career starts runs a big new top, and has just three weeks rest between starts, he's a high percentage bounce candidate.

I know I've heard a few Ragozin Sheet experts (Hardoon) say that Big Brown actually has a good pattern going into the Derby. He was supposed to bounce in the Fla Derby - but made a slight forward move instead - and goes into the race with five weeks rest.

I'm not exactly one who buys into this stuff anyway.

I'm not sure that Z Fortune ran a big top last out. He was pretty fast early in the year. I dont know how anyone can say BB's pattern is anything since he has run so infrequently to actually have a pattern

I'm just going by what I heard the Ragozin Sheets John Hardoon say about BB and his Derby pattern.

He's supposed to be an expert at that stuff - I happen to think it's mostly nonsense.

Where do you stand on that?

Prado's agent said today that EP would be on Monba or Adriano and that Tagg has already been informed that he will not be aboard Tale of Ekati.

NT

I think that they used to be cutting edge and gave those guys a big edge. Nowdays the edge they have is small or doesnt even exist especially since pace is not incorporated into the numbers (supposedly). Just as Beyers are raw numbers that are adjusted based upon different peoples interpretation of the race with little to no regard for pace, trips, surface, post position, etc, they both have flaws and in a world where there is so much information available they dont stand out to me.

Hmmmm... Interesting

While I don't like Monba's chances to win and feel like the race is a two-horse contest between Big Brown and Colonel John, I can't find any reason to make fun of anyone else's choices. Even those two have big question marks and in the most wide open Derby I can recall, no choices can be any more ridiculous than any others. Now, if he really likes Monba and isn't just going with him to be different, that's fine. But if he's just going with him to go away from popular opinion, that doesn't make much sense to me.

I was looking more for your opinions and where you stand on the validity of sheet figure patterns and form cycles.

Big Brown a good pattern, only a Ragozin guy would say that.

As far as Z Fortune, give me a second....

BB ran a negative 3 and half via Thorograph message board which is a huge top.

As for Z Fortune, his last race was a bounce off two pairs with good numbers. It would be my guess that Gayego is within that negative range or at least '1' thus making him a huge play against. If Gayego did run that big, then Z Fortune got back to his top in the Ark Derby, thus making him a real good play in the Derby.

Going with Monba is absolutely insane BUT I'll give Haskin credit, he sure as hell got us talking.

Monba's two big races were his maiden win, and now the Bluegrass, he is truly a synethic lover, try and watch the races next to each other(dirt vs synthetic) and see the difference in the way he runs.

Picking the Derby winner this year can no more amount to spinning the wheel and hoping it lands on your number, I give Haskin some credit for creativity. Beats picking Pyro or Big Brown.

Btw if Giacomo made no sense winning the derby I can't wait to this year. A total guess if you ask me.

There probably is some validity to form cycles and patterns if the numbers are fairly accurate. Of course sometimes the numbers are off which can lead to a false interpretation of the pattern.

Monba is regarded as Pletcher's best chance - and that alone will contribute to him being significantly overbet.

There are horses with better chances who will be bigger prices.

like cowboy cal and court vision

No