W/E BSF's: Blue Grass 92; Arky 103 (!?)
 

Maker's Mark Mile: KIP DEVILLE 105 (Thorn Song/Einstein 103)
Blue Grass: MONBA 92
Jenny Wiley:
Commonwealth:
Arkansas Derby: GAYEGO 103
Comely:

A 92...

Pathetic.

I'll be waiting for the natural dirt result(Beyer fig) of Gayego's Ark. Derby. This may be a gauge of Colonel Jon and Bob BlackJack's possible Beyers if they had run on dirt, as these synthetic track preps all get lower Beyer speed figs, thus throwing out speed par history for these Derby contenders

A 105 Beyer in a route was attained by the majority, but not all, of past Derby winners going into the race. Only Big Brown has done that this year. Pyro and War Pas did it last year on a sloppy track, but Pyro now fails to win or be within two lengths in a mile and an eighth graded stakes. War Pass did hang on in the slow Wood Memorial to be a close second

pyro has had good dirt form. the bluegrass may rightly be a complete toss for him. i don't understand why asmussen went to keeneland, rather than oaklawn, with his #1 horse. especially with oaklawn considered as a very close cousin to the churchill surface.
but i'm not complaining, hard to really get behind a steve a. horse for me, but i won't discount a horse just because of it.
based on gayego and sierra sunsets runs, you'd have to think colonel john would need a long look. BUT, not all polys convert well to dirt. but a lot sure have at oaklawn!

The Arkansas Derby's figure isn't going to get anyone's heart racing either... Likely 95-96 or so.

And Mike, adjust your thinking away from the masses... The Wood Memorial wasn't 'slow'.

no, it wasn't slow. the track however.....

When I saw that Assmussen was at Oaklawn instead of Keeneland (to get his picture took with the winner of the prestigious Bluegrass stakes) I knew Pyro was a no go.

I thought the Wood Memorial was a terrible race.
but the only race that looked respectable was the Santa Anita Derby.

:rolleyes:

You weren't impressed with the Florida Derby at all? :eek:

Why does the speed figure matter
 

What do the they call a doctor who finishes last in his class.... A DOCTOR.

I just want a competitive race. I didn't bet on Giacomo, but I enjoyed that derb stretch run with 5 horses having a chance in midstretch, much more than smarty Jones and Lion Heart going 1-2 all the way around or Barbaro romping.

I gave the Blue Grass a little higher, a 95, with a pace figure of 104. The Arkansas Derby I came up with 94 and 114 pace figure.

Big Brown was impressive for a 3/2 favorite but the Florida Derby was not competitve.

I thought they went pretty quick early but no one except Z Fortune came running and Gayego had plenty left.

Who do you like better Cowboy Cal or Z Fortune? I like Z Fortune. I feel he was compromised by post position.

post position wasn't great, but i think z fortune had ample opportunity to pass gayego, and couldn't get it done.

And you still dont see that horses that train and run on Synthetics have more gas in the tank? I think this is the reason Pyro was at Keenland.

The first 4 finishers a Oaklawn were from synthetic tracks,,,

And the SA Derby was? Honestly, this whole group has been pretty mundane. Yawn.

Agree, Deb. He hung a bit IMO.

z fortune is from synthetic? since when? he's done his running all spring at fair grounds and oaklawn. my pal charlie last ran at fairgrounds.

and what about adriano? his one start on dirt he was up the track.

there are no hard and fast rules for this stuff. some horses can run on both, some can't. some can go poly to dirt but not many seem to be able to go from a good run on dirt to a good run back on poly-yankee bravo is a good example of that.
then there's tiago-hasn't won a whole bunch in cali has he? but then they put him on dirt, he wins a grade two.

i think pyro was at keeneland because z fortune needed the money, and a placing in a million dollar race gets him in the gate next month. pyro didn't need the money, and the bc classic later his year is on the awt. why not run him there, see what he can do?

Tentative Arkansas Derby Beyer a 103 for Gayego and 102 for Z Fortune...

Looks outta-whack high to me..

Borel looked high to me

There is no way it was that high in my opinion. I think the track changed for the last three races.

Mistake, 4 of the first 5 were from cushion track. There was no way Z Fortune was going to get by the winner.
There is something that is starting to become a rule and its "running and training on synthetics build more wind and put a better foundation in your race horse. That being said doesn't have anything to do with which surface they do thier best running on.
Pyro was on poly to make sure he doesnt get hurt and give him the benifits from training on poly prior to running in the Derby. Odds are Pyro hates running on the stuff.

CJ,

Previous/Ark Derby.. Can't be..

Gayego: 91-103
Z Fortune: 82-102
Tres Borrachos: 83-94
Indian Sun 79-92

If I give the race a 103, it bumps the pace up to a 124...yeah, right...no freaking way. I thought Moss did Oaklawn and surely looked at the pace if so. I'm don't know how he could possibly think that is right.

Beyer speed figures do not take into account the pace of the race. The only thing it takes into account is the final time. Then it is assigned a raw number based on the time. The next thing they do is add or subtract depending on what the variant was for the day. Sometimes when a time seems out of line the figure maker will use projection to give the race a number.

If the Beyer fig makers are still using the same speed rating chart as the one in Beyer on Speed, he time of 1:49 3/5 is 106. The final number was assigned a 103 so the variant was a -3 (about 2 lengths slow) , unless the fig maker gave the final number as a projected figure. Not knowing what the other races were assigned figurewise it is hard to tell if projection was used here.

You can still use pace though to determine if the track sped up during the day and you need to split the variant. His point was that simply by looking at the pace figures for each race you can see the evidence why the variant should have been split. To suggest the race had a pace of 124 and the two horses on that pace finished 1-3 shows how ludicrous the decision to not split the variant is.

Amnyone see a BSF or Rag or TG for the 9th race Turf Sprint at Gulf on Saturday?

I know how Beyers are made. I doubt there are 10 people not part of the Beyer group that know more about them than I do.

Most times I agree with them, but this isn't one of those cases. The people making Beyer speed figures do look at pace when making the variant. They aren't using pars for the most part, so they try to figure out what the horses should have run based on history and the way the race set up. This is especially true of Randy Moss because in addition to making Beyers, he makes MOSS pace figures. He puts those pace figures alongside his Beyer number, though he does convert it to the same scale. That number you see next to Moss pace figures is the Beyer, just in a different format.

Note please that this is the tentative number... NOT the final. Final figure has not been issued...

i don't see how a horse can get a good work from running on poly is he's uncomfortable. he'll run differently, and most likely not extend himself. hey, if it works for some, wonderful. but it's not for everyone, that's the point i'm trying to make-and running well on one won't necessarily translate to running on the other.

the better horses seem to run well over any surface. so i'm inclined to think Pyro was content to run with the pack yesterday in preparation for the KD.

:rolleyes:

Just because the track was glib means the Wood wasn't slow? I understand that you have to hack a few seconds off of the day's times, but even on a "normal" track, I don't think they would've gone faster than 1:50 and change..

Pace, Joe.. The pace. Just because the two top horses that were tons better than the rest came home 'slow', doesn't mean the race was slow...

Do you really think that the pace on Derby Day will be any better?

I actually think it will be more reasonable.

^^^ Ditto..

Although it MAY be true in the long run I would not necessarily say Adriano's up the track finish was due to racing on dirt. He broke from post 12 at Gulfstream and NO ONE wins (let alone runs well) from out there. No one that is.......... but Big Brown.

Is ET Baird still riding that Illinois horse and is Bob Black Jack still wearing blinkers? Either of those are going to be bad news for the pace horses, both will be disaster.

when you have a horse show such good form on turf and poly, and then a complete reversal on dirt, i don't know what other conclusion can be reached. of course one start doesn't make or break a horse....but i'll be looking elsewhere for a winner on may 3. his trainer even said he's more of a turf horse.

It appears 103 is the official Beyer. I hope people believe it.