Derby Trail Forums - Tomlinson Ratings for Derby Contenders

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hockey2315

04-01-2008 07:46 PM

Tomlinson Ratings for Derby Contenders

Here are the Tomslinson Ratings for all contenders in future pool 3. Just food for thought. . .

Adriano - 342
Z Fortune - 336
Big Brown - 316
Salute the Sarge - 315
War Pass - 314
Colonel John - 313
Smooth Air - 309
Tomcito - 308
Big Truck - 306
Court Vision - 306
Cool Coal Man - 289
Pyro - 286
Yankee Bravo - 280
Denis of Cork - 279
Atoned - 278
My Pal Charlie - 275
Blackberry Road - 272
Gayego - 256
Bob Black Jack - 243
El Gato Malo - 238
Tale of Ekati - 236
Visionaire - 202
Liberty Bull - 183

jcs11204

04-01-2008 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

can you in detail explain what a tomlinson number is ?

i thought it had something to do with a off track, i guess i was wrong .

hockey2315

04-01-2008 07:56 PM

They have numbers for mud breeding, turf breeding, and distance breeding. These are for 1 1/4 miles+.

More info: http://www.drf.com/misc/tomlinson.html

hoovesupsideyourhead

04-01-2008 08:00 PM

liberty bull my bud longshot............

VOL JACK

04-01-2008 08:04 PM

The biggest waste of ink in the DRF.

hockey2315

04-01-2008 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

The biggest waste of ink in the DRF.

Not if you know how to use them.

VOL JACK

04-01-2008 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Not if you know how to use them.

Glad u include them into your handicapping, but I dont need some rating to tell me what a horse is breed to do. Almost as big of a joke as dosage.

ateamstupid

04-01-2008 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Not if you know how to use them.

Agreed. They certainly aren't bulletproof, but they're pretty accurate for the patently unquantifiable science of pedigree analysis.

Cajungator26

04-01-2008 09:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

liberty bull my bud longshot............

You and your damn 'bull' horses... last year it was Bwana Bull. :D

jcs11204

04-01-2008 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

They have numbers for mud breeding, turf breeding, and distance breeding. These are for 1 1/4 miles+.

More info: http://www.drf.com/misc/tomlinson.html

I MADE a comment a while back about dennis of corks pedigree i said i did not think he could get the distance and ppl went crazy on me!

these numbers have him on the bottom half of that list, im assuming thats not a good thing,

hockey2315

04-01-2008 11:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jcs11204

Not necessarily at all. . . The fact of the matter is that NONE of these #s are very high and the long distance #s are a little different than most. DofC won't have distance problems.

hoovesupsideyourhead

04-02-2008 04:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

You and your damn 'bull' horses... last year it was Bwana Bull. :D

who ran 5 steps..lol

Kasept

04-02-2008 08:51 AM

The DRF's explanation page of what the numbers mean is fine, but it doesn't explain how they are derived. Basically, in terms of his distance ratings, Lee Tomlinson places a value on SIRES based on the average winning distances and winning percentage of their get. Each runner in question earns a 'Tommy' distance number that is calculated by adding 100% of the SIRES' score to 50% of the BROODMARE SIRE'S score.

Inherent then in the Tommies is the assumption that the stamina of the runner in question is influenced to a greater extent by the sire as opposed to the broodmare sire. Personally, I disagree with that premise as the breeding maxim of 'speed over stamina' is something I adhere to, and find particularly effective when evaluating Derby prospects.

Remember that originally the Tommies were used to evaluate 'Mudders and Turfers'... The distance evaluator was the last addition to Lee's system and I believe while useful, are the least reliable of his numbers. The broodmare sire profile is highly influential in projecting a young runner's potential to get a distance of ground.

slotdirt

04-02-2008 08:56 AM

When I see a wicked sloppy track, I definitely at least consider Tomlinson numbers.

fpsoxfan

04-02-2008 09:44 AM

I refer to them with first turf and any races in the mud.
Question: Why is the Tomlinson number for Big Brown as high as it is
when his breeding suggest(according to Lauren Stich) that
he should want no part of a 1 1/4?

Kasept

04-02-2008 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

I refer to them with first turf and any races in the mud.
Question: Why is the Tomlinson number for Big Brown as high as it is when his breeding suggest(according to Lauren Stich) that he should want no part of a 1 1/4?

A nice boost would come from Nureyev, the broodmare sire... And Boundary himself likely has an average base figure.

Guess? Boundary scores a 180 and Nureyev a 270 for stamina. That's 180 + 135 = 315... bringing up Big Brown to an OK distance score.

fpsoxfan

04-02-2008 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Thanks Steve.

tiggerv

04-02-2008 10:28 AM

The number that suprises me is Salute the Sarge.

The Bid

04-02-2008 10:29 AM

Hes too slow for any number to matter.

tiggerv

04-02-2008 10:40 AM

I don't really disagree. I always considered him a Sprinter/Miler type so the number suprised me a bit. Maybe I am just bitter that he cost me the Magna 5 last weekend.

I think it's a little crazy that they are considering him for the Derby and I suspect they would only run him because Signature Move hasn't panned out (yet) and they seem eager to have something in the race. I guess they can prove me wrong in the Lexington.

Gate Dancer

04-02-2008 12:19 PM

Interesting..........

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Here are the Tomslinson Ratings for all contenders in future pool 3. Just food for thought. . .

Adriano - 342 13-13-24-0-0
Z Fortune - 336 1-0-3-0-0
Big Brown - 316 4-3-27-2-0
Salute the Sarge - 315 9-2-7-0-0 4.14
War Pass - 314 13-5-9-0-1 4.09
Colonel John - 313 4-1-9-0-0
Smooth Air - 309 4-0-4-0-0
Tomcito - 308 6-3-9-0-0
Big Truck - 306 5-0-11-1-1
Court Vision - 306 11-5-12-0-0
Cool Coal Man - 289 10-8-15-1-0
Pyro - 286 8-7-11-0-0
Yankee Bravo - 280 2-1-5-2-0
Denis of Cork - 279 3-3-6-0-2
Atoned - 278 6-1-7-0-0
My Pal Charlie - 275 6-2-10-0-0
Blackberry Road - 272 10-6-13-1-0
Gayego - 256 5-6-4-1-0 4.33
Bob Black Jack - 243 5-0-3-0-0 4.33
El Gato Malo - 238 5-0-3-0-0 4.33
Tale of Ekati - 236 9-1-12-2-0
Visionaire - 202 6-1-5-0-0
Liberty Bull - 183 4-3-5-0-0

While I know this will annoy some people, I have included the Dosage Profile of all horses and indicated which have an index over 4.00. What I find interesting is that only 3 of the top 10 horses listed with the biggest 'Tommies' have any points in the two 'stamina' wings of their profile. Not really sure how this can be explained. Believe in dosage or not, it still holds true that having at least 1 point in either of the 'stamina' wings is helpful come the first Saturday in May. I realize we seem to be in an era where many rules have been broken lately but my handicapping will not totally ignore this statistic of the past.

Cajungator26

04-02-2008 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gate Dancer

While I agree with you, the middle number is considered the 'classic' category. Wasn't the old rule of thumb that the horse should have more points in that middle category or to the right of it rather than more points to the left? I don't know, I've always paid more attention to that middle number in regards to the Kentucky Derby. Having points in the Solid and Professional categories certainly helps, but I wouldn't toss out a horse if they didn't have that. Jazil, for example, didn't have any points in the Solid or Professional categories, but he won the 12 furlong Belmont. *Shrugs.*

prudery

04-02-2008 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

The most important thing about the middle number/classic aptitude was not necessarily only the most points in the middle, but the balance of speed and stamina that weighted the equation to the middle ... Ideally the dosage profile had a blend or a concentration that did this, but even more ideal was the " heart shaped " profile that had a balance of chef-de-races in the catagories from speed to stamina ...
A heart shaped profile might look like this :
1-2-4-2-1 , or like this : 0-3-1-3-0 , and so on ...
Today few horses have anything in the solid category, and fewer in the professional--the last two longer aptitudes after classic , because fewer longer races are carded and the sires can not be chef-de -race if no one runs de race ...

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