Electrify and Big Brown
 

Same Card, Same distance but Electrify runs faster as far as times are concerned. the 1-2-3 finishers Forever Whirl stakes go 1-2-3 all around the track. Fl Derby doesnt have any closers even though thier were blistering fractions early and Tomicito was running passed dead horses. As of now I dont see BB winning the KY Derby.

I think the aim was just to start up about the 20th Big Brown thread in the last few days.

i wont have him on 1 ticket in the derby, think hes a total bet against... not on a pick 3 or pick 4, nothing

I really dont see how impressive his performance was considering it wasnt even faster than the other mile and one eighth race carded on the same day.

i was thinking that perhaps big brown's performance is being a tad bit overrated, but now that pg1985 has given him his endorsement, i think he's a lock to win the triple crown, then do the travers/arc double, capped off with a facile 42 length win against curlin in the bc classic.

There was another nine-furlong race that day, a Grade II for fillies, and it was run nearly four seconds slower than Electrify and Big Brown's times.

O c'mon ateam

Ahhh... A repeat of Saturday's clever Curlin Strategem, eh?

What? It's a fact. If you want to say the track was souped up after the ninth or the slow pace in the Bonnie Miss helped create the slow time (both valid arguments), that's fine. What you can't say is..

..when there was a Grade II nine-furlong race that was run nearly four seconds slower.

Because it's intentionally misleading and irrelevant.

Nah, I don't think so. I think that mentioning one nine-furlong race and completely ignoring the other is misleading.

And why is one extremely fast race more relevant than one extremely slow race? Electrify wins in 1:47 4/5 and that means the track was a freeway, but Shes All Eltish goes 1:51 4/5 and that's irrelevant?

Personally, I don't think either race means a whole hell of a lot in analyzing Big Brown's performance. I'm not gonna go nuts over Big Brown's time based solely on Shes All Eltish's, but I'm also not gonna call it phony based solely on Electrify's.

It also isn't true the Bonnie Miss pace was slow. For the speed of the track at the time, it was normal.

Not to mention, Electrify is pretty good, especially compared to the current crop of older horses not named Curlin.

The other mile-and-an-eighth race was won by a margin of nearly 9 lengths. It's feasible, at least, that that was another outstanding performance.

--Dunbar

I'd definitely agree it's feasible, but probable? I'm just thinking back to all the blowout Derby prep winners of the last five years who, for the most part, ran like absolute nags in the Derby.

Yeah, and those track records at Gulfstream are so prestigious. :rolleyes: Are there any left from before the reconfiguration?

Well, there was no arguing in 2006 that Sinister Minister's Blue Grass was awfully darn impressive, yet we all knew the horse had no chance come Derby day.

Though Sinister Minister might not be the best example. As DrugS said yesterday, I think Bellamy Road is a much more apt comparison to Big Brown.

I do; see my post after that one.

He's a nice horse that had a big race.

I can't get all goo goo gah gah over him due to the trainer. If you add a top hat, monocle, tuxedo, umbrella and cigarette with the holder, you've got a spitting image of The Penguin. With the laugh to boot.

I think the race was clearly impressive. Nothing to argue with there.

Didn't Bellamy Road come out of the Derby with an injury? Regardless, there have also been plenty of horses who ran superb preps and did repeat form in the Derby. Thinking of War Emblem and Charismatic, off the top of my head.

Last year many thought Street Sense would be a Derby toss after his huge BC Juvenile win.

--Dunbar

Yeah, he popped a splint if I remember correctly.

the horse is a freak..........he looks like another sunday silence. just think if he breaks from a great post derby day.......he runs away and hides.

Well going :22.76 and :45.83 alone is different than going the same pace in tandem with other horses. He will have company in the KY Derby if he sticks to his early speed. The good thing about this horse is that he can rate and win as a stalker as well. His FL Derby win looks to me an all-out effort and probably wont duplicate it in Kentucky. We have seen remarkable derby prep wins and flops in the derby in the past.

I wouldn't be bothered that Electrify ran faster...I mean Pyro can't even outrun the fillies' times (Indian Blessing, Proud Spell)...so it's not like any of the colts are impressive. So compared to the other 3 year olds males, Big Brown has shown the most.