Post This!!!!
 

This should put all the stat motivated POST discussions to rest.

What a ride by Kent, who many claim doesn't ride well on the lead. Nothing like repeatedly and strategically OPENING UP another notch to just GUT the field. I've had it done to me while cycling and it's not pleasant.

It was a MAESTRO type performance.

The turkey comes out every morning, for 364 mornings, and runs to meet the farmer, as it knows that the farmer is coming to feed it. On the 365th day, the farmer grabs it, slits its throat, and makes a meal of it.

Hume's problem of induction.

My point: it's fine to look at stats in general but stats that don't take the ability of the individual horse, rather than just the post, into question can work in the general case but will fail when needed bigtime.

Of course, the answer will always be that the stats hold in the long run. This is a GOOD argument except in the case where THEY FAIL. Which is precisely this case.

so its all due to the maestro ride? how idiotic. winning from that post tells you something about this horse, not that the post didn't matter.

how many jockeys could have given a maestro ride on that horse today?
hint, anybody, that was a monster race.

Me either, Hossy.

You were off about the post thing. If I recall you were off about the turf sprinter stretching to 2 turns. And now, you fail to appreciate a very nice ride.
The kind of ride that just breaks the will of the horses chasing.

What else is there to say?

I could have won on Big Brown today carrying 180lbs. I think you are giving Kent too much credit for not screwing anything up.

The jockey does deserve some credit for the great work he did in the first fifty yards.

Unlike last time when BB stumbled coming out of the gate (the chart caller somehow didn't catch it but it was obvious) - he got the horse to break sharply, and most importantly, he hustled him to get to the front and get position on the first turn.

Had BB broke like he did last time, or had he been ridden passively, you would not have seen the kind of performance he displayed.

Big Brown broke the will of the other horses, not Kent. Frosty the Snowman could've ridden that thing and still won by open lengths.

yeah, great that he knew not to take back from the 12 post. what a brilliant tactician.
nobody would have thought to send from out there.

Kent is one of the best , if not the best. Its obvious. It should be obvious to the stats guys too, because he seems to do well in the meaningful stats like decent class route distance races.

He attacked the race exactly the way it had to be done and he was aggressive.

He also had the best american 3yo in the world. He couldn't have won that race with hey byrn or elysium fields or fierce wind or face the cat, and a few other jockeys could have won with big brown. You absolutely want to see the best jockey on the best horse, and it is especially nice when they both have a ton of naysayers to prove wrong. Although then again he was the heavy fav...

Come on DrugS, you of all people should be able to appreciate this ride. I agree that clearing the field was key, but look at how many runs were made at the horse. Any other jocks ALLOWS the others to come to him. He asked the horse with each bid and thus ensured that NOTHING would be around late.

It was a thorough ass kicking. Could you imagine the punk War Pass having to break from the outside and the be run at repeatedly. He'd be in tears after 1/4 mile.

^^^ Desormeaux's Vice President candidate.

All this may be true, just dont interview him after the race and by no means ask him what he thinks.

Very, Very True. I'm a Kent fan, and he rode a great race today, but his lips get him in trouble.

It was a good ride by Desormeaux but let's keep in mind that Kent was riding the 3/2 favorite..... If the horse was not much the best then he would have gotten beat with or without a good ride by KD.

Saying that his victory proves that post position there doesn't matter is really detracting from what the horse did today.
Being that far outside going 9f at Gulfstream absolutely DOES matter. That can't be disputed by anyone with an ounce of sense. The fact that Big Brown had enough speed in the first furlong to minimize that effect is to his credit. The fact that he was able to run the last eight furlongs the way he did is evidence that this colt is indeed a very talented animal.
I bet against him today, but I suspect that most of us that did were well aware that this was certainly possible. We just didn't like those odds.

As for the ride, KD unquestionably did the right thing in this race, but was there really anything else he could have done? It wasn't like he demonstrated great decision-making today, but he did execute a rather obvious gameplan very well.

write him in. better than anything else running.

exactly. anyone would have done what he did. the horse did what no other had accomplished thus far. i doubt it had much to do with the jock.

The 12 hole?

Well I guess you got to give Kent D.
credit for knowing exactly how much
horse he had.

Which was around a megaton.

I don't get the adulation. What else was he going to do? If anything, the 12 post stopped any chance of him trying to be clever.

hossy... i still laugh everytime i see your sig and then your avatar.....both f'in classics

Slide in somewhere and save a little ground.
Not go directly to the front. He let Brown run.
When you saw those fractions posted, the truth PLEASE,
did you think the horse would draw off like that?

I did not.

Come on,man.He has the tank full.This guys horses aren't gunna really get that tired.There is no burn to feel.I wouldn't be waiting around expecting his horses to tire.

The Dutrow black magic is suggested?

Well,call it what you want,but they don't get very tired.It's not just this one horse.You see that assistant in Dubai today? They were asking her if this or that would bother THE BULL.She just was like uh no that isn't gunna be a problem.Can I go now? It was like if he gets out of the gate clean ,then done deal...loaded.

You and the rest are MISSING the POINT. It's not that breaking from the 12 hole DOESN'T matter IN GENERAL, anyone looking at numbers can see that but rather that one is able to pick out the EXCEPTIONS to the OBVIOUS.
That's what the game is really about. That's why we're here kicking it around, some more strongly than others. You can push your numbers all you want but the ability to step outside in the exceptional cases is what distinguishes someone who either makes or buys numbers from someone who has a good intuition for the game. Nothing more, nothing less.

And your stat approach, like a good deal of the others, is getting in the way of appreciating a fine ride. And who cares what the horse paid? I didn't bet him. I don't bet < 4:1. It's about making a point with all the WISEGUYS with the STATS shooting their mouths off and now resorting to pat positions to save face. Admit it, your stats got your neck chopped off, like the turkey.

Gobble, gobble

Nothing personal, by the way

So superior training techniques.
Dutrow has his horses do hill repeats or what?

LOL..Yeah,the Diamond Stripes race was pretty entertaining.PGRDN,they got some extra...o.k.? I don't mean to make a big deal about it,but I wouldn't expect any of them to tire much.I mean that was the original thing you were talking about(getting tired running that fraction he ran.) I'm just saying...No,I didn't expect this horse to tire today.Once he got clear...that's pretty much game over.

I got on DT this morning, slightly groggy and the first thread I hit, there was the avatar. For a millisecond I thought WarrenT was back.

I laughed and still laugh everytime I see it.

Heck I just want to know what it is
if you know, cause those horses dont
stop running.
I want some for the cross-country team.

LOL...I don't know ,but it ain't like he is worried about fatigue with them.Like he said "We got to break with the field"....LOL....GAME OVER...I mean he said that,right? Like I said...Get out of the gate clean...LOL..

LOL..He won a B.C. Sprint with a horse who's back was messed up the monday before.He wasn't even sure the horse could make the race. That horse was owned by that guy that got run over doing what you're talking about(jogging or running for "fun.")

PGRDN,you ever try the antacids ? They should help neutralize the Lactic Acid ya muscles will be releasing .As far as energy goes,I think it must differ quite a bit with the person.Some do well exercising 3-4 hours after eating real heavy(that's me...that's when my muscles have the most juice.) Baseball players eat like pigs after a game.I never understood that,but I guess they don't want to eat a lot before a game.