hypothetical derby
 

ok guys im new to the site - a friend referred me to it - but i wanted to post this question to you. i was having a debate with a friend of mine about a hypothetical race between the triple crown horses of this decade - 2000 + - and who would win. so here is the criteria we came up with.
taking into consideration only how the horses were in may and june of their 3yo year we came up with our field of 20. horses like flower alley that got good later on in their 3yo year were not included.
so if this was the field - post position included - going 1.25 miles at churchill downs on a fast track, who would you take?

pp

1] giacomo
2] rock hard ten
3] congaree
4] aptitude
5] peace rules
6] birdstone
7] point given
8] barbaro
9] afleet alex
10] smarty jones
11] fusaichi pegasus
12] empire maker
13] war emblem
14] funny cide
15] bernardini
16] red bullet
17] monarchos
18] perfect drift
19] ten most wanted
20] proud citizen

Since it's hypothetical, put me down for a million to win on Point Given. Thanks :)

I love stuff like this, so here is my trifecta, 9-10-18.
Is Perfect Drift one of the top 3 horses in the race? - no.
Am I crazy enough to leave him out of a trifecta bet - no.

Giacomo - throw out 20th
Rock Hard Ten - throw out 16th
Congaree - throw out (eary pace setter) 13th
Aptitude - throw out 15th
Peace Rules - Fades to 11th
Birdstone - finishes strong but comes of short of the money 7th
Point Given - if healthy and get a good ride--possibly 2nd
Barbaro - The most likely winner 1st
Afleet Alex - gets a piece of the money 3rd
Smarty Jones - makes a move but runs out of gas 8th
Fu Peg - Takes tons of money and finishes 17th
Empire Maker - trouble trip, finishes 4th
War Emblem - gets caught up in speed duel with Congaree, 19th
Funny Cide - makes middle move, finishes 5th
Bernardini - Intriguing play, lack of experience is a negative, finishes 9th
Red Bullet - Not a bad horse, finishes 6th
Monarchos - Trouble trip from the 17 hole, finishes 10th
Perfect Drift - others pass him, 14th
Ten Most Wanted - yeah right, 18th
Proud Citizen - good closer, finishes 12th

Here's my line

1. Giacomo 75-1
2. Rock Hard Ten 30-1
3. Congaree 25-1
4. Aptitude 20-1
5. Peace Rules 50-1
6. Birdstone 25-1
7. Point Given 6-1
8. Barbaro 7-1
9. Afleet Alex 9-1
10. Smarty Jones 10-1
11. Fusaichi Pegasus 15-1
12. Empire Maker 12-1
13. War Emblem 15-1
14. Funny Cide 20-1
15. Bernardini 10-1
16. Red Bullet 30-1
17. Monarchos 12-1
18. Perfect Drift 30-1
19. Ten Most Wanted 20-1
20. Proud Citizen 75-1

I'll take an Afleet Alex, Barbaro, Funny Cide, and Point Given (not necessarily in that order) superfecta. I would have included Smarty Jones, but he would have folded when FC looked him dead in the eye.

If Monarchos came back to the form he did the day he won the KD...no one beats him except for maybe Barbaro.

I think I'd take Afleet Alex in this one with Smarty Jones to place.

Well...hard one! With those horses, I'd lean toward Point Given or Barbaro with Smarty in there as well. I'm a bit concerned about Point Given over the surface so...if forced to pick, I'd go:
Smarty
Barbaro
Point Given
But I'd damn sure box them!

barbaro
smarty
fupeg
alex


keep in mind that no horse the last 60 years won by as large a margin as barbaro--and he went by everyone with barely a nudge. man that horse made it look so easy that day. and against what many many people said was the deepest field in years.

Oh man, that's tough! Smarty and Barbaro in a photo with Smarty gutting out the edge, followed by Alex, PG and Funny Cide.

avance, what a fun post! Thanks!

I'll go with Smarty. Though Point Given is awfully tempting...

And Euro, what a great response. I was enjoying watching the imaginary race you created unfold in my mind.

Did you guys watch the Breeder's Cup special a few years back when they did a hypothetical match-up of the winners of all the Classics up until that point? Kind of silly, but kind of fun, too.

First of all let me congratulate the original poster on a pretty good list. I kept thinking that there had to be somebody better than Proud Citizen to include on the list....but I actually can't think of anyone.
Secondly, JJP's line seems fairly reasonable and if those were the odds I would be putting my money on what I see as the value horses. They are:

#6 Birdstone - 25/1 - almost always tough on a dry track
#11 FuPeg - 15/1 - looked very good in his derby to be at this price
#16 Red Bullet - 30/1 - definitely capable of hitting the board

Does anyone remember when that guy on the ESPN Board signed up and claimed that he had this great handicapping software? He claimed that he made all of this money using it... He told us that Congaree was going to win the Derby, which was fine, not a terrible choice, except it was 2003, he was 100% serious as well...

PG, that was one of the funniest things ever
umm...hey give Bellamy Road a mulligan
and he whips this field into submission
but, I'd take Empire Maker (1)
Point Given (not today, revisited)
Barbaro (2)
Monarchos (3)
Bernadini at 10/1 (wow) & Smarty Jones at 10/1 (wow)
can I get that 1 on 1 wager at even money?

Barbaro
Smarty
Afleet Alex
Monarchos
Bernardini

One of these five with the edge to Barbaro who seemed to be able to win on dirt, turf, offtracks, anything.

It's a great hypo, and the thing you have to qualify is whether all are 100% at their finest the day of the running...

If they are, you also have to acknowledge the pace scenario would be red hot and your most likely winner would be coming from off the pace.

Do you also get to assume that the 20 post doesn't destroy your chances? Or are the posts listed is if they are running at Churchill from those slots? Are we assuming there's no extreme trouble for anyone too?

All those conditions would point to Monarchos since he ran down as good a group as we've had in the Derby during that period chasing hot fractions.. And he did it earning huge figures... And from an extreme post.

1. Monarchos
2. Point Given
3. Smarty Jones
4. Perfect Drift
5. Empire Maker
6. Barbaro
7. Afleet Alex
8. Ten Most Wanted

Empire Maker easily, he got third on 3 hooves

good responses all.
of course people can set up the hypothetical any way they desire, but my intention was simply to say "these 20 horses reasonably healthy, and in their typical form during may and june of their 3yo years." not necessarily their very best day ever. i know this is pretty vague, but that was the discussion we had.
as for post positions, i just did 20 horses because that is the standard # of derby entrants nowadays. in my hypothetical scenario it is 20 horses leaving from the churchill starting gate in these positions. that is why i put the horses that i included just to get a full field of 20 (giacomo and proud citizen) in the worst positions and put most of the favorites near the middle.

personally i think the pace would be extremely fast - and i would like point given over afleet alex and - as my long shot - aptitude.

Barbaro/Afleet Alex, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones.

From a technical standpoint ... this is a very good line ... it has just the right amount of "vig" built into it.

Nice work, JJP.

Here's the bottom line, folks ...

Run this race ten times ... and you'll get ten different winners.

There are no standouts in this bunch ... and every one of them has big, big built-in excuses for their losses.

I agree with this. But if Empire Maker and Point Given are healthy, I give them a slight edge with Smarty around as well.

But ...

... but both of those guys were healthy when they ran in the actual race ... and neither won.

Anyhow ... this is a fun thread. I make 6 the under/over on the number of pages it will run.

BB,

You should know that Empire Maker was far from healthy when he ran in that race. He was damn near running with a bar shoe.

That's right ... I forgot ...

... Frankel always runs sore horses ... he's such a taskmaster ... pumping race after race into his horses without a letup.

BB,

I absolutely hated EM at the time and savaged Frankel in writing for the way he acted towards Tagg pre-Belmont, but the horse wasn't 100% Derby Day.. As for PG, he may have been "healthy", but he WAS short, and that hoof was almost NEVER "perfect" his whole soph season. I've maintained 2 things about Point Given:

1.) I've suggested that he instinctively "chose" to not run all out on that rock hard Downs surface that day.. That track ruined Monarchos, Invisible Ink, Thunder Blitz and others, and it took a long time for Congaree to get right afterwards as well.

2.) His win in the Haskell was testimony to how great he was. He was totally off in the problem hoof that day and still got up on a speed favoring surface running against a negative pace scenario for him.

There are no standouts in this bunch ... and every one of them has big, big built-in excuses for their losses.[/quote]

That could be said for EVERY Derby winner who didn't lose a race before the Derby.

OT, but I got upgraded from a non-existent track to a training track? That's a promotion in posting status?

Im with Scavs here.........Empire Maker in a walkover. Go to the windows with both fists full.

Empire Maker...no horse has been hyped with fewer results than this guy in the last 15 years. Not a chance here.

Thx

There will always be some disagreement in these type of theoretical matchups. Its a lot tougher making a line on 20 great horses in a race than the standard 7 horse field with 2 standouts and 2 fillers.

I see what Kasept is saying. In that field, there would likely be an insane pace and Monarchos comes to mind as being a deep closer. But he never won again after the Derby, and he had the absolutely perfect pace setup. I caught that trifecta for one of my biggest scores ever so nobody is a bigger Monarchos fan (and Invisible Ink fan as well) but in retrospect, I realize Point Given was a superior animal to Monarchos.

Yes, Your Wisdomness ... I agree that you know the Frankel barn as well as anyone ... including Mr. Bobby himself ... but ...

... what about Lost In The Fog in the Smile? Any comments, thoughts, suggestions?

No, wait ... forget about "suggestions" .. I already have a good idea what they would be.

He would be in my tri box in this race. He is the only horse I have ever seen race live that I was in awe of after his race. I seriously said "WOW! There is my derby horse" after his Fla Derby win.

His mama can pop out some awesome babies.

The other question is about the jocks.
Are we to assume that Prado is aboard Barbaro AND Birdstone, Bailey is on Empire Maker AND Red Bullet, etc? This definitely looks like a jocks' race to me.

Who does Gary ride? 10 or Point Given? Guessing Point Given. I will ride 10 for him.. :)

He won the G2 Remsen as a 2yo, 3 top level 3you races: G1 Florida Derby (a field that he whipped), G1 Wood, and the G1 Belmont..........2nd in the Derby w/ a bad foot, kinda difficult to run on a lame wheel and 2nd in the Jim Dandy on concrete-esque, speed favoring track at the Spa. Overhyped? I guess so since he didnt win the Belmont by 31 lengths.

Perfect Drift 14th and Rock Hard Ten 16th huh? Buffy isn't going to be happy with you!

I chose to ignore it mira...

Besides Perfect Drift was MUCH better than 10 was at age three (at the time of the derby). Not that I didn't love 10 then, but I think he needed time to mature into his huge self.

PD would be in my tri box with probably Barbaro and Empire Maker.

You have to look at this list carefully, the Derby is like no ther race in the world. It takes a special animal to win this race. Many horses have come in with much more talent that the eventual winner of the race. With this said there are only 7 horses on this list that won the "real" derby. Those 7 are Giacomo, Barbaro, Smarty, Fu Peg, War Emblem, Monarchos and Funny Cide. Now out of those 7 I am certain that most agree the Giacomo and War Emblem were the two so called "flukes." Bit out of those 7, Barbaro was the most impressive winner of the Derby. Barbaro would get the 1st jump on everone and no one would be able to catch him. Barbaro would be sitting 3rd or 4th behind a FAST FAST pace set by Congaree, War Emblem and Peace Rules. He would get past them at the top of the stretch and win by a length.

Now out of the horses that didnt win the Derby, Point Given was the most talented of this bunch. His win in the Belmont was one of the most stunning performances I have ever seen.

Without knowing the posttime odds.... I'll make a tri. Ticket..
ALL / ALL / ALL
and see you @ the windows !!
If you want to and another ALL... make it a super ticket !