Lost in the Fog
 

$150,000 Aristides Breeders' Cup (gr. III, Race 10, 5:58 p.m.), 3 & Up, 6 Furlongs
# Horse (weight), Jockey, ML Odds
1. Yes Yes Yes (113), Mark Guidry, 6/1
2. Cougar Cat (112), Robby Albarado, 15/1
3. Exciting Metro (115), Rene Douglas, 6/1
4. Level Playingfield (114), John McKee, 5/1
5. Lost in the Fog (124), Russell Baze, EVEN
6. Pro Prado (114), Calvin Borel, 12/1
7. Kelly's Landing (117), Rafael Bejarano, 4/1

By far the most informative information released post GG race. Came out an hour ago.


Every owner and trainer dreams of having a horse with so much talent that it's expected to win every race. When Lost in the Fog did just that, capturing his first 10 starts en route to last year's Eclipse Award as champion sprinter, he set the bar so high that even he is having some trouble clearing it on every try.

Saturday, the 4-year-old colt, who finds himself riding a two-race losing streak after being upset in his seasonal debut at Golden Gate Fields in April, tries to regain his touch in the $150,000 Aristides BC Handicap (Grade 3) at Churchill Downs.

Trainer Greg Gilchrist chose the six-furlong Aristides so his colt would have a race under his belt at the site of this year's Breeders' Cup and hopes Lost in the Fog will take to the Louisville oval more than Belmont Park, where he suffered his first defeat in last fall's Breeders' Cup Sprint.

"His two worst races last year were at Belmont, a loose, sandy track," he had noted earlier, "and Golden Gate was pretty loose also. I hope it's the last time he'll have to run over a track like that." Gilchrist also, it should be noted, is in no hurry to re-engage Carthage, the sharp local speedster that won his third straight stakes at the expense of 'Fog and is entered in Sunday's Bay Meadows Sprint.

It seems premature to write off Lost in the Fog as a one-year phenomenon but his connections are aware that he isn't advancing his stud career by failing to reproduce last season's results, which were gained exclusively against members of his own crop. "It's funny," Gilchrist remarked on Tuesday, "but after he lost the last race, it seems he didn't look as good as before to some folks. It doesn't matter to me what people think but, all of a sudden, the air went out of the balloon. From that standpoint, it's like the horse needs to win this race if he's going to continue racing."

The last race was the Golden Gate Sprint and, besides having traction issues with the cuppy surface, Lost in the Fog was not quite at his best physically. "With all the rain we had, I did as much as I could with him but I knew beforehand that something was bothering him, I just couldn't find it," Gilchrist said. "With all the build-up and expectations, I didn't want to flat out say the horse was going to run bad but I made it clear it wasn't going to be his best race. Sure enough, three days later he was dead lame. He had a big bruise in one foot. So it was there, we took care of it and, overall, I'm sure he's a much fitter horse than he was six weeks ago."

Besides the on-track experience, Lost in the Fog just may have landed in an easier spot in the Aristides, even with the rigors of cross-country travel factored in. Kelly's Landing, who set a track record in this race last year, is back to defend his title though his recent efforts have not broken anyone's stopwatch. Level Playingfield is always a threat if he runs his best race.

"I've done pretty much everything I can do, so now it's up to the horse," Gilchrist said. "Shipping has always been one of his strong suits, so I'm not worried about the trip, and pressure is self-inflicted and I never feel any with this horse. But we're all hoping to see him back at his best."



Well, I think this explains alot. I never like exuses, but everything he claims is very consistant with his pre-race and post-race comments. I dont know how to take "it's like the horse needs to win this race if he's going to continue racing." Still, I am glad he is doing better, but this does shed some light on a preformance that baffled many. Gilchrist seriously made it clear in at least 5 differnt publications before the last race that this was not going to be his best, so he did have a feeling. He had never tried to lower expectations with this horse before, so it did send an important message. This obviously wont change any skeptics minds, but aside from the cuppy track, Gilchrist did not make any exuses for over a month.

Also, if a horse is badly bruised, how long would it take for him to fully recover?

If Kelly's Landing can dual with 'Fog" early, I really think Yes Yes Yes or Cougar Cat could be dangerous here....the clockers at CD have raved over Yes Yes Yes's training...beware

Where did you hear about these clocker ravings about Y Y Y?
Did you get that first hand or did you read it somewhere?

First hand...if you know Steve, he'll tell you who I am..

Why is Lost even money.....? Oh how enticing it will be to play this race if the board is showing this kind of underlay.

I know who Steve is but I don't know him personally. Why would I ask someone else about who you are? I wasn't doubting you, just trying to know what kind of info you had from the clockers. ie first hand, second hand, third hand.

I have been planning for some time to play against LITF once again and I'm trying to get all the data I can. I really agree with the type of scenario that you gave, somebody runs neck and neck with him for 4-5 furlongs and softens him up for a closer.

thanks for the info,
oh and by the way... who are you??? lol

Cougar Cat runs by em all at the end....doubtful but wouldn't surprise me...

Pletcher announced that Yes Yes Yes will scratch unless something happens to Lost in the Fog.

Yes is a total toss out. Caught him last time when he rode an outisde bias perfect trip in winning the allowance race on Derby Day. Horse he beat returned yesterday at CD and lost the same condition race(British Attitude). I've been drueling to bet against Yes yes yes since he had teh bias/trip aided win. He now draws the rail and would have to make the lead and duel form there as he is not a closer. No way, no how.

This is a race that you dont bet. You sit and watch a hopefully great race.

I actually like Pro Prado in this race.

I have not been planning to play against him...I actually like the horse better than most people do, as in I don't exactly think he's overrated..I think his accomplishments last yaers were legit because he traveled across the country to SEVERAL different tracks and never had any excuses crushing his rivals...I like that..I don't think his BC Sprint was his best race...he was one that was REALLY affected by the Holding barn situation at Belmont last fall..I know that for a fact...he was pretty wound up and disturbed befgore he ever lined up in the gate that day....I AM disappointed in his '06 debut though...expected a better effort than that

...He will obviously not be an attractive bet this weekend, and while I still believe he is EASILY the BEST horse in the race, I will play Y Y Y at a price, but realistically it isn't a good betting race...Ronny's colt - Cougar Cat - has been training great too and Ronny is phenominal with horses like this..I just wish it was 7-furlongs to be comfortable betting him to win..

I am on the radio with Byk on Mondays and Fridays - Sirius Channel 125 on Attheracesandbeyond...I also work for Churchill Downs Inc..click the link below:

http://www.kentuckyoaks.com/2006/oak...deotype=racing

I actually heard this too...realistically, he is not of Lost in the Fog's ability level, but I was looking for a price alternative that I KNOW has been training exceptionally at CD...As for his allowance win on Derby day, I liked it...the horse that ran second for Biancone is a VERY nice colt....Yes, Yes, Yes might be better than you think...just saying

I agree with you on Yes Yes Yes... I liked his sire a lot.

By the way, I like your hair.

gator you get my email....

No... can't check it at work. They have yahoo email/sports blocked off. POS computer... :mad:

ok thanks...ill wait for your reply..

Bad hair day, man....HEHEHE...my mother thinks I look like an alien on camara with that doo

Wow, ask the guy who he is and he sends me a video! Impressive recap of the Oaks, thanks. LITF did travel and crush fields over and over last year. I just am not convinced of the quality of some of those fields. I can see him getting beat a number of ways tomorrow. I think it's really kind of a turning point for the Fog. It'll be the last time he's an even money morning line favorite if he doesn't win.
Good Luck tomorrow.

I was being serious though... I like it. :D

Kelly's Landing is more than capable of firing a big one.

Cunningham Stable, Nice to see you on this site. Well, we now officially have the heavyweights. If we can only teach JJ how to log on into this site. On second thought, that would be a miracle. Hope everything is well - everything is well here in Chi Town. Talk to you soon.

Lost In The Fog will go off better than even money
 

I've got a pretty good hunch Lost In The Fog will go off better than even money. Lots of folks will be looking and expecting someone to catch him in the stretch.

I'll be heading to the OTB to see his race. This is the kind of race I usually don't bet, just cause I like the fun of watching a race I care about.

Being a Bay Area guy, I'm rooting for LITF, and could care less about the $$.

That said, if he's better than even money, I'll lay enough money down to win to buy my gas, lunch, dinner, groceries and beer for the week should I collect.

If I don't collect, I just hope he has a safe trip.

And then I'll shoot for an exacta to get even later in the day!

I think Fog runs big here.. I don't think there's much pace pressure, and if Gilchrist wants the track 'tight', he should get it after all the rain this week. If the weather is dry today, the surface should be well packed by the time this goes off. I too am 'rooting' for him as I hate the tone of sdisdain some people have used talking about him. I don't what else the horse was supposed to do last year and I'd never hold getting beat in the toughest Breeders' Cup race there is against him...

For me betting against LITF is not even remotely related to having disdain for him. As a fan of the sport I certainly root for great stories like his. As a gambler its always about finding value and once you wager of course you root for your horse to win. If he romps today and wins in convincing fashion I will have lost a little money on my wager but as a fan it would be exciting.

I guess I'm just saying that for me there are these two sides to my involvement in the sport, as a fan and as a gambler, and an opinion on the gambling side doesn't necessarily mean I don't like a horse or hold him in disdain.

ARlJim I agree with you 100%. I have actually bet against horses that sentimentally I am rooting for. LITF is a horse i have always loved, since day one. But I see Pro Prado as a horse who can make soem noise in there today. He was ridden agaisnt his style last time(went to the lead and dueled in fast times, steadied as well, but the horse is a closer) and may benefit today if any kind of duel occurs. Hes the value to me, but Id love to see LITF blow em away in fast time and shut up the naysayers on him.

A/J,

You're totally right about the fan/gambler dichotemy.. It's one of the elements of the sport that provoke the conflagrations we see on Forums and in the media... People say, "I hated Cigar" and some go nuts... Well, did you hate Cigar because you didn't respect his accomplishments, or did you hate Cigar because you kept going against him?, etc..

We had Caroline Hine on the show and I told her I never was a Skip Away fan... (Which apparently offended the daylights out of her...), but said it meaning that I was always trying to beat Skippy with Running Stag or Gentleman or Will's Way, etc..

What I DON'T like is Watchmaker trying to humiliate Gilchrist, Aleo and Fog with his utterly disrespectful dismissal of the horse and his '05 campaign. The BC Sprint is ALWAYS the wildest and toughest race of Cup Day, and to use that race as the opportunity to call him a fraud was pathetic and ridiculous.

You saw the same thing I did on the ride Pro Prado got last time. It did not produce an optimal result from him that's for sure.

I know what you mean about the sentimentality issue. Like for me in the derby I did not wager with Barbaro on top so I lost it all when he won in convincing fashion. But you know what, it barely hurt at all because I have so much admiration for Barbaro. I lost, but the entire sport of racing won so I felt great as a fan of racing.

Oh we're in complete agreement then. I don't really follow the Watchmaker stuff but I certainly do not agree with dismissing his '05 campaign. It was a thing of beauty and his connections deserve nothing but praise for it.

You're also right about the fan/gambler dichotomy. It's a big source of conflagration for sure especially when people don't catch on as to which side of the dichotomy you are coming from.

Make that three of us who have found teh whole Watchmaker/LITF thing disgusting. he loves to harp on the fact that he predicted the loss and that the horse wasn't so good, blah blah. Funny thing is that he never seems to harp on the one million or so losers or horses he loved or horses he was wrong about. Its like the guy who picks 8 outta 9 losers on a racecard who harps on teh only winner he had that day at dinner and tells you what a genius he is because of that winner.
I'm so sick of the negativity that flows from so many of the "leading turf writers". You'd think someone who makes a living writing about something would have just a little more love for the game, and a little less bitterness.
He flat out roots against one of America's most popular horses out of just plain wanting to say " I told you so!!!".

This is some great reading. Add me to the list as people who "try to beat LITF" every chance they get, but not out of spite or hatred. It all started for me during the Breeder's Cup week. I kept thinking and saying I thought (this is a true story) that Silver Train was the horse to beat. Low and behold I actually got one right for a change and it felt so good to be one of the few who did not put LITF on top. That race was my biggest score to date and will always hold a special place in my memory bank. Now, today, I am covering both bases. I want to see LITF smoke the field to quite some of those who discredit how "bad" of a horse he his lol. However, the gambler in me is going another direction. So, one pick 3 will have LITF singled and the other will not have LITF at all.

REading through this thread and realized it could have never gone this far at the "other board" without some knucklehead muddying the water. I've found a new place to hang on the net

I have bet on many a four, thats a great line

in races such as these, i would just watch and cheer on lost in the fog.

but i also understand that in many races there are those you would like to see win, and those who will get your $. my husband, no fan of racing at all, even understands the waste of time and energy it would be to bet $2 and then go back to collect your $2.10.

he's getting better tho, had a wonderful time at oaklawn and said we should go back. i'll make a handicapper out of him yet....maybe a trip to fair grounds in the fall.

That's a movie line from Barry Cheesburger in "Let it Ride". Fabulous movie

I would love to see Lost in the Fog win for sentimental reasons, but I think Pro Prado gets up for this one. I've got a feeling he's sitting on a big race.

Watchmaker is an ass. So he predicted LITF's loss in what was easily one of the tougher races he came against, especially now considering how well Silver Train has progressed. Good for him. Like you say Oracle, WHERE IS HE ON THE 500,000 HE'S BEEN DEAD ON WITH WHO ONLY BEAT THE AMBULANCE HOME?????

He looked tired as can be, bored in, then bored out, then bored in again.....I had him singled in the pick three, have two horses in the last.....

ok, I gotta give one of them out...this 3 wins that that is over 1200 for Scav....oh man, the heart is already going....

1:08:2 with the last 1/8th in 12:1, man Id love to own a tired champion like that!!!!!