Saturday Stakes BSF's
 

REBEL-Sierra Sunset: 99
TAMPA BAY DERBY-Big Truck/Atoned: 93
SAN FELIPE-Georgie Boy: 92

HILLSBOROUGH-Dreaming of Anna: 103
TURF DASH-Lookinforthesecret: 101
SKIP AWAY-Gotcha Gold: 100
FLORIDA OAKS-Awesome Chic: 92
CICADA-Carolyn's Cat: 89

I am usually always the one taking the other side, but this year's crop really does look subpar. There is still time, and probably some of it has to do with California being synthetic, but so far, so bad.

You can also add Gotcha Gold with a 100, and I think that was very generous by the figure maker.

How slow is this bunch? Well, 4 of the top 5 two turn route figs have been turned in by fillies... The boys are embarassingly bad.


2 turn routes:

Alina (f) DED 01 Mar 1M 100
Eight Belles (f) FG 21 Jan 1M 40Y 100
El Gato Malo SA 12 Jan 1M 99
Indian Blessing (f) FG 09 Feb 1 1/16M 99
Proud Spell (f) FG 08 Mar 1 1/16M 99
Sierra Sunset OP 15 Mar 1 1/16M 99
Cool Coal Man GP 24 Feb 1 1/8M 98
Texas Wildcatter AQU 08 Mar 1 1/16M 98
Visionaire AQU 08 Mar 1 1/16M 98
Elysium Fields GP 24 Feb 1 1/8M 97


1 turn routes:
Big Brown GP 05 Mar 1M 104
Hey Byrn GP 10 Feb 1M 97
War Pass GP 24 Feb 1M 97

The 99 that El Gato Malo got came with the aid of a dream trip setup by a crazy three way speed duel between Massive Drama, Talk of A Cat, and Sierra Sunset.

His figure took something like a 14 point regression when he went from a perfect setup to a lousy one in the Sham.

wow Dreaming of Anna really destroyed them...even though I know you guys say turf figures don't matter

Beyer number for Eight Belles and Pure Clan??
 

thanks in advance

check out the saturday BSF thread

oops Sunday, not in there yet I guess.

Not yet.. soon.

from the Illman blog on DRF.

*Honeybee (OP): Eight Belles (J. Jones/R. Dominguez) - 91

See that.. 8 minutes... :D



Thx Smu!


*Turf Dash (Tam): Lookinforthesecret (J. Ness/D. Centeno) - 101
*Bill Thomas Memorial (Sun): Wind Water (C. Hartman/K. Tohill) - 101
*Skip Away (GP): Gottcha Gold (E. Plesa Jr./C. Lopez) - 100

*Rebel (OP): Sierra Sunset (J. Bonde/C. Emigh) - 99
*Mac Diarmida (GP): Stream of Gold - Ire (K. McLaughlin/E. Castro) - 99
*Crystal Water (SA): Celtic Dreamin (R. Becerra/A. Solis) - 97
*Allen LaCombe Memorial (FG): Storm Treasure (S. Asmussen/D. Meche) - 96
*WinStar Derby (Sun): Liberty Bull (T. Amoss/G. Melancon) - 95
*Tampa Bay Derby (Tam): Big Truck (B. Tagg/E. Coa) - 93
*Florida Oaks (Tam): Awesome Chic (R. Ramos/I. Rosendo) - 92
*San Felipe (SA): Georgie Boy (K. Walsh/M. Baze) - 92
*Instant Friendship (Aqu): Prince of Peace (M. Miceli/N. Arroyo Jr.) - 92
*Honeybee (OP): Eight Belles (J. Jones/R. Dominguez) - 91
*Spicy Award (Aqu): Magical Forest (J. DeMola/A. Garcia) - 91
*Pasadena (SA): Polonius (M. Pender/J. Court) - 91
*Tejano Run (TP): High Blues (G. Arnold II/J. Lopez) - 90

*Invitational (PM): Bound to Be M V P (C. Balcom/J. Crispin) - 89
*Cicada (Aqu): Carolyn's Cat (K. McLaughlin/A. Garcia) - 89
*Harry W. Henson (Sun): Tough Tiz's Sis (B. Baffert/A. Gryder) - 89
*Conniver (Lrl): All Giving (F. Stites/E. Rodriguez) - 87
*New Mexico Breeders' Derby (Sun): Run Like Fire (J. Welch/J. Bourdieu) - 84
*WinStar Sunland Park Oaks (Sun): Sky Mom (S. Asmussen/G. Gomez) - 82
*Bachman (Fon): Ittakestwobaby (D. Anderson/D. Leeds) - 81
*Portland Meadows Mile (PM): Alabama Rain (T. Longstaff/A. Gutierrez) - 80
*Love Is Eternal (Aqu): Dance Gal Dance (R. Maragh/T. Ritvo) - 80

so could a 102-103 win the roses

Great to see races at Tampa and Sunland tied at the top of that.

It's official. This is a year where beyers are meaningless leading up to the Derby. These horses are not slow.

What makes them fast? A $5wp wager on the winner?

It's official? A new low...

Every speed figure maker in the game is wrong..

Beyer, Brown, Ragozin... decades apiece, each evaluating the speed horses run as their lives' work. All incorrect...

But you're correct. You know better. Truly amazing. And sad.

Ky- they're slow. Trust me on this one. These are the most pathetic group of times I can ever remember in the preps.


The more I see, the more I like Big Brown.

If this board was like Survivor, I wonder who would be voted off first?

You.

I laughed..






(But Travis wouldn't be a contestant... He'd be the voice-over guy!)

x4 00000000

Oh...


Well we'd just feed him to Morty.

stay tuned for scenes from the next episode of General Hospital...Chapel Hill style

Big Brown is not slow.;)

The times may be slow, but the way the races set up make the final times slow.

You have horses like Visionaire going up to NY, not switching leads in the stretch, and running a higher Beyer than a horse like Pyro that beat Visionaire in his previous start. Sierra Sunset-99. Georgie Boy-92, Pyro-95, Colonel John-86, El Gato Malo-85. These horses can all run Sierra Sunset into the ground.

Colonel John-last furlong...11.8 seconds
El Gato Malo-last furlong...11.2 seconds.

I don't know how much faster a horse is supposed to run than that. Again, I don't think these horses are slow. I won't change these statements. Well, not until they prove me otherwise.

These colts are slow relative to past years PERIOD. Do you think any of these colts save WP would be able to compete with Hard Spun, Curlin, or Street Sense?

we will see how he runs vs horses that are good.. he is a good horse but..

dirt in the face and some pressure should make a diffrence in his spectacular looks.......i think he gets exposed ...

Big Brown is better than WP IMO. I said that way before the race this weekend too.

So may be several of these other horses.

Yes, I think some of these colts could compete with them. Well, maybe not Curlin when he is at his best. The depth of this group of horses is yet to be determined. I think it is very premature to write them off as slow because the figures and final times are saying so based on how some of these races are set up. The horses out in Cali have to run the races that way. They can't go fast early out there. If they do, they collapse in the stretch.

Do you think that Visionaire can beat Pyro when Visionaire doesn't even switch leads in the stretch?

Nope... but he hasn't even run in a stake yet. We have to cross our fingers that he doesn't run a clunker, or we won't even get a chance to see him in the Derby.

the problem with your analysis on Col John & El Gato Malo is the last furlong comparison doesn't work with synthetics. If a horse did that on turf (which is what synthetic racing really is), we'd say ok, nice horse, maybe a G3 type, but a cut below the top level. On dirt, those numbers would be something special... and last I checked they still run the Derby on dirt (THANK GOD FOR THAT!!!) Until the Cali's run & prove themselves on real dirt, like Sierra Sunset did, I will reserve judgement.

No chance. NONE. And you're not even including Rags to Riches, who would smoke them all too.

totally agree, which is why I can't judge him on the square just yet (even though he's easily on the top of my list). I don't think he gets exposed in his next start though... as we've stated, the competition aint much.

Fast horses, by my definition at least, by running the whole race fast, not just selected parts. I haven't seen any horse do that yet.

In the races this year, the horses either go too slow early to record a decent final time, or they go fast and collapse. Think about this one...War Emblem won the Derby at 20-1. He'd be about even money against this crop as it stands right now.

Thunder Gulch would beat this bunch open lengths.

This crop will prove to not be as bad as everyone is making them out to be IMO. Some of these horses can run.

I'm not going to say that they are "slow" at this point.

I don't think a horse should change their running style just because the pace horses aren't running fast. Synthetic is different than turf. Maybe not polytrack, but synthetic at Hollywood and SA is very different from the turf.

If it was turf, Medici Code could run over it.

And your opinion will be wrong.

Giacomo would be this bunch by open lengths (seriously).

Thunder Gulch was actually an outstanding horse, one of my favorites. He'd be even money against this crew in the Derby.

I doubt it, but we will see.

It WAS different, but the "new" cushion track with the goo stuff they put in at SA is just like turf. Just look at the fractions- 1:13 in the San Felipe, which is probably 3 seconds slower than what a traditional dirt track would be.

So, you think Visionaire can beat Pyro then?

It is different from turf. But, the courses at both HOL and SA are much closer to turf than dirt. Anyone betting serious money without taking that into account is helping put my son through college.

Jessica, wouldn't you agree that actual finish times are much less significant than speed figures...???

If so, does it not follow that the relatively low speed figures suggest a relatively slower crop of 3yo colts....at least at this point in the development of the crop

I take both speed figures and final times with a grain of salt, but yes...usually. It depends on the situation. When horses run the mile in 138 and change, and come home in 150 and change, and only get a BSF of 86, 85 because pace of the race...well. I don't take final times really into consideration without taking the whole race into perspective.

El Gato Malo went from running a 99 to an 85, and ran just as good of a race in his last as in his first this year. I don't understand the logic.

Pyro ran a hell of a race in the Risen Star, and only got a 95 beating Visionaire soundly. Visionaire doesn't even switch leads, beats up on much less talented horses that he should have beat by a lot more, and gets a 98 next out. Don't understand the logic behind the numbers.

Don't get me wrong. Sometimes beyers are very useful, but I am careful with them. They are not useful to me in evaluating some of these 3yo races this year though.