They Knew
 

Take a good look at the pps of the 8th winner at Gulfstream.....then look at her odds and how easily she won.

Opened around 8, took a drop to 2-1 with very little money in the pool, drifted to 6-1, back to 5-1 as they went into the gate, and then 7-2!

BANG!

they didn't know
 

I didn't catch the Gulfstream race you are talking about but it reminded me of a horse at Turfway

a 5 yr old 1st time starter. Someone made her 1/9 at the opening odds. I think they put $5k on her to win. The odds slowly but surely corrected before they went off.

They opened up the gate and the horse just stood there. Had to be led out of the gate so they could move it.

horse was not declared a non-starter the gate opened..

how much do you believe in odds tracking? i try not to get caught up in it but when i see a pattern like this (opening with a big bet on a horse i'd make 8 or 10-1), rising, then taking big money late it's usually a good sign, especially on a layoff or firster.

That's funny.

A couple of years ago I loved a horse at Saratoga that had dwelt in its prior start at Belmont. I was with a friend of mine and I told her that as long as the horse broke we would be fine.

So, the race starts. The break looks clean......looks clean. I didn't say a word and my friend says about 10 seconds into the race " where's our horse? "

Needless to say.

Not a whole lot, but the truth is I was interested in this horse ( Hooves knows this ) so I was more attuned to it.

I think it is obviously more relevent in maiden races. You have to look at this horse's pps.

that was hooves making er jump...lol..yes andy had said he liked em.. and good call andy......

Thanks....but that's not why I started the thread ( I'm desperate....but not so desperate that I need credit for 7:2 shots ). I just think it's a good story. I really hope people can see this horse's pps.

For those that can't....here's a synopsis....

Debuted in a MSW at Aqueduct in late November and lost by 43 lengths at 63:1. Went to Gulfstream and raced in a $40K maiden claimer at 1 1/16th on the grass, dueled for the lead briefly, and finished last beaten 21 1/2 at 45:1. Cut back to 5F on the dirt today, dropped to the basement, and BOOM!

Just who is they? And can I just once be "they" and know what they know?;)

Sadly, and brace yourself, you will never be " they. "

At some point " they " may tell you....but " they " won't include you in their group.

I kind of figured that. I had the chance to be they once, but the tip seemed so outrageous that it didn't seem possible. It was probably 9-10 years back and it was a turf race at Saratoga when a seperate Leo O'brien entry came 1-2. One was the favorite and the other was a bomb. The bomb won and the favorite came in second. The guy that gave me the tip had me place the bet for him becuase he was bartending. He got the tip from "they". "I", like an idot didn't play it.

It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma

On a somewhat related note, I see that Precious Too finally won today. Yes, Precious. I imagine that many of us have followed this enigmatic runner in her, well, almost comical career as a race horse. Some were there early (moi), others were still with her late. TODAY, she rewarded those STILL with her with a nice 8:5 mutual. She won for fun, too. Never let it be known that this game isn't fair.

She was off a claim by Bruce Levine from Robbie Bailes. Enough said.

She was probably an overlay at 8:5.

I like the one's that think THEY are the THEY that know...like the one's that made Contessa's 1ster in the MdnClm (when are they going to stop betting his 1sters in MdnClm's, he like 3%?) 5/2 fav, bet down from 15/1 in the opening flashes...

I unfortunately went to Ass and Stew...shouldn't have been caught at that track today

What was interesting about that horse is that while it was 12-1 early in the betting it was basically the favorite in the exacta throughout the betting.

It was a sick race to bet...the winner, who had never hit the board before his last race, was 3-1...how do you take 3-1 on that horse when he was 50-1 last time? and then he jumps up and catches me...tough one

This is something that has always interested me. Who are "they"? Owners, trainers that put such large amounts of money in the early part of the pool it moves odds in a huge way. I'll admit that i do look at the morning line and look at the first flash of odds and just this past weekend Elys fields m/l was 15-1 and on the first click he was at 6-1 which of course made me look a little more at the horse. I didnt bet but did tell a buddy of mine that was at the track about it so he bet him to win/place. Coincidence probably but i do pay attention to the early movement. Always find it interesting.

You want interesting....Watch the pick 3 pools in Southern CA on a Saturday...It's obvious who "THEY" like.

That is usually a better indicator of who is actually the betting favorite. I always keep a close eye on that when a horse opens up much higher or lower than expected.

Anyone who bets a 1ster in a MCL race during the AQU Inner meet deserves to have their hat handed to them.

Hopefully, for their sake, the hat comes with a free bowl of soup.

for this year, first time starters in maiden claiming races at AQU are 2 wins from 58 attempts, .0345 percent.

straight maidens are even worse where firsters are 2 for 93.

Great Stats...Thanks

Agreed Jim.....thanks.

Pretty interesting actually. It's counterintuative considering how weak so many of these maiden races have been. Good stuff.

the only explanation I can think of is that people that have promising young horses that they think have a shot at winning first out usually move them south for the winter? I don't know.
Also its not a huge sample, only two months.

Jim...any idea what a "normal" first time out win % is?

I was just thinking the same thing.
for all tracks I have these numbers for the same period.

maiden claiming firsters 71/859, .0827%
msw firsters 57/775 .0735%

so it does show that the AQU inner numbers are far below the average.
interesting.

by contrast Tampa is doing much better with firsters.
maiden claiming firsters 18/141, .1277%
msw firsters 7/70, 10%

what perc of those winners were on co days..

couldn't tell ya, I don't have a filter for that.

One thing you have to keep in mind is how often they win as a percentage of the field. That may be a big factor in the Aqueduct numbers being low this time of year.

It's been this way for years on the AQU Inner, but not as bad as this year.

A couple years ago, a friend who bets nothing but NYRA MSW/MCL races (and I thought I had problems) looked at 5 years of Inner maiden races.

He came up with FTS runners winning far below expected. I believe he used ratios of races won by FTS runners vs the percentage of total starters represented by the FTS.

He looked at MCLs and MSWs going both short and long. They all underperformed vs expected. I remember FTS going long in either class type was much worse and that MSWs short was better.

Jim, I'm curious about the Tampa stats... For example, the MCLs 18/141 ... 12.7%: Does this represent FTS runners winning 18 of 141 MCL races or does it mean that 18 out of 141 MCL FTS runners won races?

its runners not races. 181 first timers went to the gate, 18 won.

if we look at it by races then its
18/96 18.75% mcl FTS winners at Tampa
7/39 17.9% msw FTS winners at Tampa

and

2/61 3.3% mcl FTS at AQU
2/48 4.2% msw FTS at AQU

thats an incredible difference.

AJ where you getting these numbers from, Bris?

the data comes from bris datafiles that i've been collecting since the begginning of the year, Ive been using a software package to manipulate it and run queries.

to finish what I started on firsters, here are the results for RACES at various tracks this year. It looks like firsters are really ready to go this time of year at Tampa and Santa Anita, and not so much in NY.

Gulfstream
MCL 7/91, 7.7%
MSW 10/56, 17.8%

Tampa
MCL 18/96, 18.7%
MSW 7/39, 17.9

Philly
MCL 4/64, 6.2%
MSW 6/20, 30%

Laurel
MCL 6/57, 10.5%
MSW 3/15, 20%

Turfway
MCL 4/95, 4%
MSW 4/29, 13.8%

Fairgrounds
MCL 6/74, 8.1%
MSW 6/60, 10%

Oaklawn
MCL 8/49, 16.3%
MSW 3/25, 12%

Santa Anita
MCL 12/54, 22%
MSW 6/35, 17%

Aqueduct
MCL 2/61, 3.3%
MSW 2/48, 4%

good job jim ..thanks......

Great Stuff Arli. This could prove to be very helpful.