The case for why Pyro is the most likely Derby winner right now
 

War Pass and Pyro are the two superior horses with the superior figures.

For example, the 113 Beyer War Pass ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile represents the fastest figure in the history of that race.

The 105 Beyer Pyro ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile is outright the 3rd fastest BC Juvenile Beyer figure in the 17 year history that Beyer's have been published in the Daily Racing Form.

The only two horses to ever run a faster BC Juvie figure were War Pass (113, loose on lead over sloppy track) and Street Sense 108 (Dream trip/setup up the CD rail to win by 10 lengths)

So, that crowd who wanted to mock Pyro on the fact that he was "one nose away from a maiden" - they could have been countered with the fact that Pyro owns the outright fastest Beyer in BC Juvie history which was earned without the aid of any possible smoke and mirrors.

Now that their superority to this crop so far has been established - onto why Pyro is the better Derby projection....

Loose speed War Pass has won all three match-ups, but Pyro has gained steadily late on him each time. Making up 2.25 lengths through the final call of a six furlong allowance race. Making up 5.5 lengths through the final call of the Champagne. Making up 2.25 lengths through the final call of the record figure BC Juvie.

It would be one thing If War Pass dueled through quick fractions and Pyro sucked up late and closed the margin - but that didn't happen once in the three meetings. Pyro lost because he was outpaced each time, but he also stylishly finished the last furlong best of all each time.

Pyro has three clear-cut edges over War Pass to make him a superior Derby projection. Here they are....

* Uncontested leads don't come easy in 20 horse fields with everyone stretching out:

The Derby is typically fast paced - especially for mid-season 3-year-olds attempting a 10 furlong distance. For that reason, horses with deep closing running styles often outrun their odds. More importantly, War Pass was loose on an uncontested lead ranging from margins of 2-to-3 lengths after a half mile in each win over Pyro.

A horse with the repute War Pass has will not get loose like that in the Derby without going WAY too fast for the distance. In a rare year, they might give a 20/1 shot like War Emblem a pass on an uncontested lead, but that is very unlikely to happen.

Horses with Pyro's deep closing running style often outrun their odds in the Derby and end up looking better than they really are.

* Pedigree:

War Pass is by champion sprinter Cherokee Run. His dam Vue was a lightly raced stakes placed sprinter by Mr. Prospector. War Pass is a half sibling to Grade 1 winner Oath, who was perfect at age 2 and winless there after. He's also a half sibling to Grade 2 stakes place sprinter Vision of Beauty. She never attempted a route. Basically, War Pass is bred for sharp speed and sharp precocity.

Meanwhile, Pyro's grandsire won the Breeders Cup Classic and Belmont Stakes and his damsire won the Breeders Cup Classic as well. Pyro's dam is a half to a stakes winner who won 8-of-16 lifetime dirt routes and another stakes winner who was 12-5-3-3 in dirt routes.

* Training tactics:

Trainer Nick Zito has won a remarkable 5 of the last 10 runnings of the Champagne Stakes. War Pass worked 4 bullet workouts in the month of September prior to his razor sharp wire-to-wire Champagne score in early Oct.

Trainer Steve Asmussen hasn't allowed Pyro to do much in his works. Just a steady diet of slow breeze's.

Not that you said it, in fact you intentionally avoided it, but War Pass was loose on the lead because he outran his speedy opposition with exceptionally fast fractions. His half in the BC was a full second faster than the lightning quick Indian Blessing. It's hardly surprising that Pyro was able to gain on him in the last quarter of those races....in fact it would have been embarrassing if he couldn't. None of his closes were particularly exceptional. In fact one could argue that he was the only one running after War Pass had done the dirty work of intimidating all the speed horses. I know you won't argue that War Pass was far more impressive in victory in those races than Pyro was in picking up the pieces for second money.

As for the rest of your Captain Obvious stuff about Pyro being more likely to get the distance. Gee thanks....we didn't know that War Pass isn't particularly bred to go a distance and faces the possibility of a difficult pace scenerio in the Derby. And, in case we weren't, you have already posted it about 37 times. Clearly the fact that War Pass has not shown an ability to rate may be his biggest concern ( along with the obvious distance questions ). One thing Smarty Jones had going for him at this time four years ago was that he had shown a stalking ability. Of course, it would be nice for War Pass if the sky opened up on the first Saturday in May just like they did for Smarty Jones.

And thanks for pointing out the different ways that Assmussen and Zito are bringing these horses along. Considering Assmussen's mantel full of KY Derby trophies, along with Zito's total lack of success in the race, it's a wonder Nick isn't trying to emulate Steve's style. Hopefully someone will straighten him out before it's too late. I just hope for Assmussen's sake his horses are running as well on Derby day as they seem to be in Fair Grounds right now. I'm sure you'll agree that there's no reason to even consider that possibility.

All in all, however, your usual fine work. If you weren't so damn handsome I probably wouldn't even have read it.

Haven't seen this previously posted. Mr. Beyer on War Pass.

Impressed with Pyro today, but not on his bandwagon quite yet.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...020803619.html

I think uncontested leads happen more often than you think. Wasn't Hard Spun even last year uncontested pretty much?? Lion Heart not too long ago?? You mentioned War Emblem. Spend a Buck, Bold Forbes, all come to mind as well. Yeah, it doesn't happen much but it certainly is not out of the question. Best BC Juvy Beyer for Pyro without aid of smoke and mirrors??

There's a long way to go yet before this Derby. I have yet to see War Pass this year, and he could stink for all we know. I saw zero today that told me Pyro could beat War Pass at 8.5 or even 9 furlongs however. Pyro could be the horse this year...but on February 9th and what I saw today...I'll reserve final judgment. AT this point I still prefer War Pass.

One thing, however, that Pyro showed his doubters today was that in finishing second to War Pass he wasn't a suck-up phony. He showed that against lesser foes, even without a good set up ( in fact far from it ), he was dominant. His performance today was a compliment to War Pass, but moreso it showed that Pyro can run....he's just been hampered by facing a superior foe. The question that DrugS discusses, and the obvious question, is whether or not that superiority will extend to the classic races and their extra distances.

I have to say I was surprised by some of the comments I read about Pyro leading into this race. It was hard to understand, at least for me, when looking at the pps for today's race how he could realistically lose.

There are some horses running on the
funky stuff out west that I really want to
see on the dirt sometime.

I really want to see what the bad cat
can do on dirt. I think he might fit the bill.
But it is hard to tell because of the level
of competition and the surface.

The style is there and he can improve.

When is War Pass due back?

I don't have their PPs handy, but I don't think Lion Heart or Hard Spun ever ran as fast early and won routing as War Pass did in his last two starts.

Also, it seems that people are quicker to predict that War Pass will have trouble routing than they normally would be with a son of Cheroke Run. Really, is the bredding THAT terrible?

I'm starting to warm up to this whole War Pass idea.

Allowance at GP later this month.

February 23rd.

Allowance race on Feb 23rd. It will be carded as the "Bridgejumper Stakes"

IT's just so early. Last year, we knew about Street Sense...Curlin had yet to run a race...and Hard Spun we had questions...and after the Southwest later in the month we had way more. Two years ago Barbaro had yet to run on dirt and had Bernardini even run a race yet??

It's way too hard this year especially in California...even if El Gato Malo becomes a monster...his first race on dirt will be the Derby. We will know nothing. I have to think there's more than Pyro and War Pass out there. Something else is going to pop up big time other than those two between now and then.

Of course they didn't...I was just stating they got loose on the lead in the KY Derby.

I wasn't arguing with you.

...sorry. I like to argue on these!!

allowance, Florida Derby, Kentucky Derby?

Allowance, Tampa Bay Derby, Wood.

What does Justin Dew
think of the Bad Cat,
Crown of Thorns, and
Court Vision?

Assuming my balls aren't being busted, which is a dangerous assumption here....

El Gato Malo- It seems like there is less talk about his potential distance limitations than there is about War Pass, even though this one is by El Corredor. Or maybe there is talk and I am just not hearing it. Plus there's the whole synthetic track thing. But he's done nothing wrong. It would not be a shock if he went into the KY Derby undefeated, where it came down to an issue of his ability to handle the surface and the distance. I like him.

Crown of Thorns- I'm not sure what he beat in the Lewis. I like others out West more than him. Probably #2 in his own barn anyway.

Court Vision- This is the kind of horse I am usually wrong about. He's looked awesome, but the speed numbers are not where some would want them to be. I would rate him among my Top 5 at this point, but I have this fear that BTW is on to something in his criticism.

Crown of Thorns is definitely the best song Mother Love Bone ever recorded.

Besides for War Pass - I said before the race I thought the field had the look of a fairly paceless race. Globalization (who failed a couple times in maiden sprints) and Salute the Sarge (who simply is a consistant stalker-to-mid-pack type) were 2nd and 3rd.

The fast fractions were more a product of a keen and aggressive War Pass, and the horses behind him had to be used some to keep him from getting too loose in the Monmouth slop.

You know it's far more common in slop than dirt for superior speed horses to carve solid fractions and still outfinish everyone else. If you take Pyro out of the race, War Pass turns his 2.5 length lead after a half mile into a 16.75 length margin of victory over everyone else.

Obviously I know War Pass was clearly the better 2yo - but my point was based on projections Pyro is the most likely Derby winner.


You seem to have missed the point.

Basically, I think the Champagne was Zito's big goal with War Pass. The four straight fast bullet works in Sep leading into the race suggested he wanted to leave nothing on the table.

In Pyro's case, he's done everything without being asked to do much of anything in his slow works.

Somehow you managed to turn that into 'well who has won more Derby's?'

Hard Spun had a 1 length lead after a half....though that was mostly due to Stormello being spun about 5 or 6 wide on the first turn while Kent D. had a full nelson on him.

War Pass will come into the race much more feared than Hard Spun did - and in last years race...Kent very likely doesn't put Stormello to hard rating.

Hard Spun was 7-5-2-0 lifetime when he made the lead after the first call - his only two losses a 2nd in the KY Derby and a 2nd in the BC Classic.

He had a BIG stamina pedigree - and never seemed relaxed at all unless he made the lead.

Hard Spun was 7-5-2-0 lifetime when he made the lead after the first call - his only two losses a 2nd in the KY Derby and a 2nd in the BC Classic.

[/quote]

What? I'd have to check but at Derby time I though HS had one loss, at Oaklawn. If you are talking Classic, by then he'd lost the Derby, Preakness, Belmont and Haskell.

I said when he made the lead at the first call.

He didn't make the lead at the first call in several races - The Southwest, The Preakness, The Belmont, The Haskel, The Lane's End, his sprint win in the King's Bishop

1. war pass isn't even a consideration for winning the derby. Come on guys. I put him on my vulture list the second he staggered in the lane that time.
A sprinter breed, who runs like a sprinter... wins some 8.5 furlong races and you think he gets 10 furlongs in a 15 horse+ field? WTF? Is anyone who considers themselves beyond a "fan" actually touting warpass? War Pass will be lucky if he wins his 9 furlong prep(s).


2. Beyers have nothing to do with the kentucky derby. Speed figures in general are going to mislead you in comparison with visually evaluating a horse and a race. The only good a speed figure does is when they give a bad horse a big number , or a good horse a low number.

3. Pyro is one of many who at this time have a chance to compete for the roses. It is very early. His risen star was good in that it allowed him to carry form forward. He showed that he can gallop for 7 or 8 furlongs and then sprint home. He showed that he is in shape and has a kick, and the fairgrounds stretch distance isn't going to make him flatten out. Churchill is nearly as long as fair grounds. It was the type of form that wins the derby lately, which tends to have a horse carry the speed or emerge to the top of the stretch and then another (winner) run by in the lane. Pyro is a little bit small but he is very well proportioned. The final time for the risen star was OBVIOUSLY sub maximal for pyro.- Pyro could have obviously ran a faster final time had the jockey asked him sooner, but the purse money and record goes to the horse who beats zfortune, and not to the horse who runs faster than some girl ran a totally unrelated race that happened to be the same day and distance. It is foolish to say "slow race" blah blah blah without looking at the performance of the specific animal as an individual, outside the context of his opponents. You can not draw conclusions with a track variant and a final time from a silverbulletday and a risen star. To even suggest that Indian Blessing ran a better race is misleading and incorrect. Final time and beyers mean sooooooooo much less than than style and form and the manner in which the race was run.

All you can say now is that pyro looks like he could compete in the derby if he isn't a victim of a bad trip.

I just read this. Beyer made an unacceptable error!

He said the 113 Beyer of War Pass was the highest earned by a 2yo since Easy Goer.

In fact, everyone knows the year after Easy Goer's 2yo season Grand Canyon ran the fastest 2yo Beyer figure ever recorded with his giant 1:33 flat win in the Hollywood Futurity. Breaking Snow Chief's stakes record by over one full second. His final race before death. At least everyone who's heard me say it about 600 or so times in my posting career.

Also - while it is fair to compare War Pass with Slew from a style standpoint - Beyer was actually the one who led the "Seattle Slew is overrated" charge leading up to the Derby and even after his Derby score.

In his second book, he spent a few pages making his case for why he thought Cormorant was the right horse to bet in that race.

There needs to be like a message board farm system.....

Like a place where we can send posters who've lost their fastball or never had one to start with.

Did we pick up The Fish and The Fat Man from a prison swap with Pace Advantge or something?

If so, who did we have to give up?

Unless DT gave up DisappearingDan and Merasmag - I think this board took the worst of that trade.

Outside of taking an incredible amount of time and space to state the obvious in your posts ---gee, I'm always enlightened by you-- you, also, apparently, have your HEAD deep UP YOUR ASS, in lumping me with the idiot Fischer.

Interestingly, after you got your ASS KICKED royally at SAR on that site of yours--what was it, ZERO for the 1st 2 1/2 weeks? --- with some of the most ridiculous plays I've ever witnessed, I mean, really, Drugs, ZERO winners for HALF the MEET, you're still around trying to educate others. You willl never live that one down.

What is it really, DOOFUS, the fact that I was on Curlin before you?

The case for why Pyro is NOT the most likely Derby winner right now:

1. He can't beat War Pass. He's 0-3 under three different distances, surfaces, and tracks.

Numerous e-lawsuits will be filed because of this thread.

I actually thought The Fat Man took being compared to the Fish gracefully.

Wow, that is an A+ post if I have ever seen one.

Regardless of my feelings, the above is a 98 mph fastball with movement...

knee high

I'll bite.

That one is very easy to live down. Trust me, I've done far worse.

I was zero for ten with two scratches - which means 1st winner didn't come until racing day #13 (and second day #14)

About half of the ten were 15/1 or more...and one or two of the days instead of a horse it was a Pick 4 play.

I know you are dying to mention the first winner was a 5/2 shot - but hey, it won by 6 and it was time to try and break the duck.

I was fluke-ishly high percentage with longshot winners the previous meet ('06 BEL Fall) I did on there...just as I was in the newspaper the one PID meet. Things even out.

The whole post looked like another poor effort to discredit Street Sense to me.

not necessarily. plenty of times i have seen people make a statement that a horse who won with ease could have run faster if asked. and quite often that turns out to be incorrect.

I was pretty amused, too!

--Dunbar

I also happen to think the BC Juvenile was overrated by Beyer. It was a tricky day, but I think he is about 10 points too high.

Have to say I think The Fat Man definitley knows his sh*t.

I would also love to get that 12-1 on War .Pass if anyone is that sure he is hopeless at a mile and a quarter.

I knew that as well......but I didn't want to make him cry.