GP: Important Weekday ALW Monday..
 

Aquarian and Alaazo back Monday for Nick and Mott... Violette returns Titan of Industry too.


6th (3:40)

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Allowance | Purse: $41,500

1 1 Aquarian Velasquez C Zito Nicholas P 118 L 7-2
2 2 Alaazo Desormeaux K J Mott William I 118 L 6-1
3 3 Stephen's Gold Chavez J F Tortora Emanuel 118 L 6-1
4 4 Shattuck Trujillo E McPeek Kenneth G 120 L 4-1
5 5 Extreme Frolic Velazquez J R Wolfson Milton W 120 Blk-On L 10-1
6 6 Titan of Industry Prado E S Violette, Jr. R A 118 L 5-2
7 7 Mambo Meister Castellano J J Gleaves Philip A 118 L 8-1
8 8 Atwell Coa E M Hennig Mark 118 L 12-1

That 52 debut Beyer for Alaazo caught your eye?

The fact that he's out of Atelier is worth noting, no? And being by A.P. Indy, would we really expect this colt to be ready to run fast early?

Should relish the 9 panels and has been well-regarded from first arrival at Mott barn. Important fans of slow horses have been eagerly awaiting his 3yo debut. ;)

In a related story, I am the proud owner of Atelier's race-worn saddle cloth from The Gazelle.

No, she didn't win.

No, it's not for sale.

No, I don't care that you're jealous.

I expect horses with talent to not run disgracefully slowly in their races. If you took the time to look up his debut you would see that the horse he beat was exiting not one, but two, $25K maiden claiming races....but did move up to break his maiden in a $40K maiden claimer in his next start. The others behind them found their niche running slowly in turf races.

On the highlighted part........give me a break.

That was 5 months ago. A 2yo in August, now a 3yo in February. He may very well be talentless, but he also has every right from a pedigree standpoint to improve with maturity.

Aquarian has run virtually the same race 5 times in a row, and I know you believe he has upside yet..

I believe in what I see on the racetrack.

Ah... But faith is believing what you can't see...

The faith of whom? Losers?

Only a simplistic guide like the sheets would suggest that Aquarian has run the same race every time.

How is Titan of Industry the 5:2 morning line choice in that race? That's just incompetent

The ML at Gulfstream has been absolutely dreadful on a day to day basis. I just don't understand it.

Titan of Industry does his best running on the lawn

I've gone over the form for this race, but I haven't reviewed the replays yet. My eyes need a rest.

On paper I could care less what Alaazo's debut speed figure is. I don't necessarily love precocious 2yo at the 9 furlong distance the following year anyway, so I am forgiving, but hopefully he showed a little talent or potential? At least he won the race and beat 8 monmouth maidens. Not a huge credit, but it isn't exactly a negative. I want to see the replay and see what he looks like. He is bred well and comes from a fairly hot barn.

I look at Aquarian's paper form and he looks solid. In his last 4 races he has had rallying jockeys, and now "today" he gets Velasquez, who I really like at 9 furlongs. His works hint that he has some tactical speed. Another I have to see in the replays, but don't expect to oppose.

Titan Of Industry ran well in his first two races and then held his own in some tough stakes. Nobody was beating Cowboy Cal, but TOI sure didn't embarass himself among the "rest" category. We go 9 furlongs here and Prado has caught my eye a few times, probably won't let TOI fall behind too far. Contender.

Mambo Meister has speed, and he will want the track to continue to move them along as it has been lately. loses the kamikaze jockey Nunez, but figures to be forwardly placed on the stretch out.

further on the fringe is Extreme frolic. has shown some positive signs. One of those "between the lines" horses on paper form his follow up race to his maiden was probably his best dirt race, and his last (turf) may have been a decent "prep" for this. Johnny V. may need to hustle him up on the backstretch to have any chance at a minor purse should the track play to speed.

I don't like Shatuck's paper form, but his breeding and barn warrants a replay review as well.

caught Alaazo's replay. He could be very very good, hard to tell. I would like to know more about the the layoff. Poor start blew the first turn, he made headway like he was so much the best, looked like a nice good sized horse, looked nice in the stretch. He has talent and potential based on the replay. Understand the layoff is key.

The highlighted part is completely untrue. Anybody that doesn't believe me should watch the race for themselves. He broke just fine.....but dropped back because he has no speed. He did blow the turn and cost himself a couple of lengths of position. From there he had a perfect trip and beat a cheap claimer in a slow race.

Just remember........there are no trips in slow races.

I agree about the "poor start," there was no such thing.

When looking at the rest of the charts from that day it is quite clear that race was embarassingly slow. I'm sure there was no need to reiterate it, but it is true.

NT

Fischer really needs to hone his trip handicapping skills (among other things). And when you quote him, I'm left to read his amateurish assessment of races.

This horse was PUSHED on the backstretch to get into contention in POODLE fractions, and then was all out, under steady whipping to get by the leader in the stretch. Why in the world would anyone want him back; and at a short price too? But understanding the layoff is the key. Uh huh.

agree on the semantics / but I did probably see some talent
 

You guys are correct on this "poor start", but I think I didn't use the right choice of words. When I say "poor start" here, I am saying the same thing. He did not show speed, and I didn't mean to imply that he hit the gate or stumbled or any such reason(excuse?) for a slow break. For whatever reason, he didn't show speed, and going into the first turn he had no position. He was then caught wide and either last or near the back on the first turn.
I can see on the replay that once Alaazo starts making headway and how easily he does it, and the manner in which he does it, that he is by far much the best in that race. And Separate from the race he shows that there is a potential that he is a very good horse as an individual. Whenever you see a horse make headway like that and finish like that, and appear to look as good an animal as that - you have to take note. A Monmouth replay isn't exactly the easiest thing in the world to see, and the race could have been filled with terrible horses... That doesn't tell you a whole lot. All I know is that there is some potential for a special horse. And then we have this layoff for five months... No public specified reason to my knowledge (and google). The horse could be better or worse from whatever he did or did not show 5 months ago...

Back to this race. -

Aquarian- with the rail, the short run-up, and Cornelio Velasquez - expect to see this horse break alertly and hustled up to position just behind the 2 or 3 speeds. If such position is established, Aquarian has an excellent chance to get into winning position around the 2nd turn and entering the stretch.

Alaazo- Desormeaux will also have to hustle this one out of the gate. The 10 seconds they have to get to turn 1 means that he absolutely must establish position, but it also means that should he establish position ,that he won't get left in the dust. If he has that much talent, he will get his chance to show it. Around turn-2, he will will get a chance to try to come on even terms with Aquarian. His first quarter position, his ability, Aquarian, the track will all play a role.

Mambo Meister has an outside shot to contend for the win. Castellano has to establish that forwardly placed position before they hit the first turn. Will JJ have a little more left than Nunez? Don't expect a clear lead.-Atwell may actually lead early but is not going to last 8 furlongs.

No one else has a chance to win the race. place show and 4th is another story

Horses can improve so I understand Steve's point.

** hiccup **

Fat Man
 

The Fat Man is one of the best trip handicapper's I have spoken with. For whatever reason he is anti-social. He really is close to genius with his trip handicapping. Believe it or not we used to communicate in a civil manner.
We actually exchanged daily notes, many emails, pps, charts, velocity, but our "friendship" ended when I was unwilling to trade bris PPs for fat-charts for a week while family was in town.

Now that means I am on permanent "ignore" :D and am a lousy judge of races...

Whatever Fat Man. It isn't that serious. Horseplaying is an individual game. The nature of the beast says that you have to have an ego, and you have to to be an individualist. (other than pooling for carryovers or high-fives...) I never altered a bet for a Fat Man opinion, and he sure as hell didn't for one of mine. I respect your talent but life is too short to get crabby over something "trivial"...

For sure Bobby.

Why let anti-social feelings rule ? Why do I get the feeling DaHoss is stalking me and harrassing me on this board. Because he is. Not a good thing to do.

I've asked DaHoss and BTW to stay on subject but I guess you all can't control your impulses. I know a place that can help you. As a matter of fact I even work there. It is a very secure place. A safe place to exorcize your demons.

I like being friendly. I hope we can agree to civility at least.

Just to put my 2 cents in, I think Titan takes it by two

Spyder

One day people here will stop taking short prices on turf horses when they run on the dirt.

A man can dream.

that reminds me...that horse we discussed back at the beginning of November, My Otrebor, hasn't been seen since that race.

I feel confident you are just as concerned regarding his whereabouts as I am...

I have no idea who he ( or she ) is and have no memory of the conversation.

What's odd, for those wondering what Titan is doing in this race, is that Illman just picked Atwell for 2nd. I can't make sense of why that horse is not sprinting on the turf.

old age is a b*tch...memory is the 2nd thing that goes...

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17903

You need look no further than his trainer.

Now I remember. I think Jimmy Toner trains him.

It's not easy to get into Maiden Turf races at Gulfstream. He'll probably show up.

Thank God...my feelings were almost hurt there for a minute...

Silly racetrack rumor is occasionally right. I'm not sure what this says about the rest of the field but that horse certainly ran OK.

Probably a better bet at 9:2 than a turf horse at 2:1.

I clearly need to spend more time on Face Book.

I will go ahead and reserve your page

www.facebook.com/duncecap

he looked very nice on the track......congrats.

Did he look nice or did his competition dress him up?

I'll go with the latter.

Is that where you post as this guy....

I gotta get me a couple them thumb rings...