2/2 (GP): Gr. I Donn; Gr. II Swale
 

To say that this is a weak field is to grossly understate, but tough to expect more from the sad older male division. If Daaher can work it around two turns, he should dust this group, but with Fairbanks and Kiss the Kid entered, no easy lead for Scuzzy Luzzi.

9th (5:13) Donn H. (G1)

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $500,000

1 Wood Be Willing Lezcano J 115 L
2 Spring At Last Coa E M 119 L
3 Dr Googles Boogles Desormeaux K J 115 L
4 Daaher Luzzi M J 120 L
5 A. P. Arrow Dominguez R 119 L
6 Fairbanks Velazquez J R 116 L
7 Kiss the Kid Castro E 115 L
8 Brass Hat Martinez W 118 L
9 Einstein (BRZ) Prado E S 119 L



6th (3:40) Swale S. (G2)

6 1/2 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 Mr. Foz 116 L
2 Eaton's Gift Desormeaux K J 116 L
3 Surrealdeal Cruz M R 116 L
4 St. Joe Coa E M 116 L
5 Silver Edition Velasquez C 116 L
6 Wincat Velazquez J R 116
7 Coal Play Castro E 116 L

Interested in Fairbanks. I think the horse still has something left and this is the right track for his running style.

I think this might be the year that AP Arrow really steps up and distinguishes himself from AP Xcellent.

It will be VERY tough for anyone in that race to beat Daaher. . .

Einstein makes this interesting.

I wouldn't totally overlook Spring At Last. Depends on his odds, but he could be a useful alternative to Daaher.

With no true stand outs, it should be interesting race w/value hopefully.
But, i'll have to stick by Brass hat.

And that may **** me.
I like Daaher in a tri key over whomever may offer the most value:AP Arrow, Fairbanks and Brass Hat

I'd call Daaher a standout. Not saying he doesn't have holes, but he's definitely a standout.

I think the Grading of the Swale is in trouble.....and if it isn't then it should be.

I sincerely hope none of the good people of Derby Trail are thinking of betting Fairbanks.

They are.....

The interesting horse to me is Roman's horse, but that notion can probably be shot down because Daahar should put him into the ground.

I can understand someone wanting to take a shot against Daaher. The major reason for this may, in fact, be the presense of Fairbanks. Not that Fairbanks has a prayer, because he doesn't, but because he could run Daaher into the ground. It is far from clear that Daaher is going to be comfortable rating in a two turn route and Fairbanks is the one who might force him to do that. On the other hand, Daaher is faster early than Fairbanks, so perhaps he will bottom out this subpar field. But, if they really send Fairbanks it could be Daaher's undoing. Either way, Fairbanks has no shot to win.

What I would really like to do, however, is book all monies on the oddly popular Einstein. I guess I understand the connections wanting to take a shot at winning a Grade 1 on the dirt to give him some residual value. However, he's not a dirt horse. Two wins in off the turf races on wet tracks doesn't make him one. He will be severely undervalued.

So basically Daaher is going to win. If Fairbanks can't pressure him then it's highly unlikely a closer will get to him on that airstrip.

Gulfstream has been very even for the most part. Horses can come from well back.

Fairbanks is in a no win situation. First of all, and probably most importantly, he's not much horse. However, tactically he's way against it, as the horse who is very much the horse to beat has his exact running style, and is a lot better at it. How can that possibly translate into a win by Fairbanks ( assuming Daaher doesn't lose his rider or worse )?

I don't completely discount the possibility of some kind of meltdown. But, Fairbanks will be the cause of that....not the beneficiary.

I will take Dr Googles Boogles

So you think Daaher will have no problem with the distance? I'm not sold on him past 8 furlongs. If Fairbanks can pressure him then it's a coin flip on who will win.

Now this is all a moot point if I don't get 6/1 or higher on Fairbanks. He's playable at those odds, especially in the exotics.

That horse is slower than molasses.

Daaher has a huge win at Saratoga last year at 1 1/8. But, that was loose on the lead, and if he gets seriously pressured here I think he may have a problem. But, the horse who pressures him will have a bigger problem.

Fairbanks has very limited ability. It may be a coin flip whether or not he runs last, but he's not in a coin flip with Daaher no matter how you cut it.

I'm really not trying to be a wiseguy and I have no idea what you find appealing about Fairbanks. I honestly don't think he is mildly interesting at 20-1.

Well sure....but in this group I think molasses would be a good bet at about 12/1.

I'm not sure Dr. Googles Boogles is much horse, but if you are betting against Daaher, he's the type of horse you want.

I do think he got a mediocre ride in the Hal's Hope. However, I'm also not convinced he's not slow.

Nice.

from a look at the form only -
 

Fairbanks won't do a very good job of bothering Daaher. Kiss is worth a look at replays, he breaks well enough on paper :rolleyes: ...

It is all moot, as Daaher has been pressured before (jerome comes to mind) and didn't notice the other horse. It will be about the stamina limits. Luzzi has been less prone to major errors and wants this mount badly. Is Daaher a 2trn 9furlong horse?? I don't see why not, 10f is maybe a little questionable... Spring at Last is the only comparable talent. SaL isn't a pure 9 furlong horse either but is capable and mature. Wouldn't surprise. Is clearly 2nd best.
Arrow will get a nice trip. Wood be Willing has every right to step forward. 2nd time dirt, 2nd time Jerkens, 2nd time Lezcano 2nd time loser? ;)

The only horse I see that could benefit from Daaher and Fairbanks dueling is A.P. Arrow and he's not exactly the greatest horse off a short layoff.

I'm overlooking the bad form Fairbanks had in his last two races and looking at what he did in the spring and early summer.

I just think it's between Daaher and Fairbanks. It's worth a small wager to keep me interested in an otherwise shittastic race.

If he gets pressured here he might very well be struggling down the stretch, but I don't think this bunch will be good enough to take advantage of that, even if it happens.
As far as I am concerned, his performances since that August race at Saratoga indicate that he is simply better than these. Although 8f is probably a better distance for him than 9f, he beat those allowance horses by 13+ going 9f at the Spa, and he certainly has a two-turn pedigree.
I think the smart money here may end up being on the favorite.

Swale has a few interesting ones.

6th (3:40) Swale S. (G2)

6 1/2 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 Mr. Foz 116 L
2 Eaton's Gift Desormeaux K J 116 L
3 Surrealdeal Cruz M R 116 L
4 St. Joe Coa E M 116 L
5 Silver Edition Velasquez C 116 L
6 Wincat Velazquez J R 116
7 Coal Play Castro E 116 L




I figured you must have been looking at the wrong race, so I posted this again.

What do you think of Eaton's Gift, miraja?

That Kiss the Kidd actually ran a fairly quick 6furlongs in the CanTurf. huh.

lol

I really like St. Joe. Not convinced that he is a quitter yet. Eatons Gift has a decent chance to run well again. Wincat could be anything. And then you have Cornelio Velazquez on Silver Edition with probably my fourth favorite in the race coming off an (overacheiving?) 2nd in the Hutcheson. You could toss the ill advised mile efforts from Silver Edition and he almost looks like a sprinter prospect. I'll be rooting for St. Joe but any of these could win.

I mostly agree and slightly disagree.

If you really think there will be a meltdown then that's how you play the race and you pitch Daaher. I'm not saying I feel this is the case, but if he gets run into the ground, the closers are talented enough to swallow him up.

However, I think he's faster early than Fairbanks, and cheap speed like Kiss the Kid has no realistic hope of competing early or late ( and should be scratched ). Thus, I think while the pace will be reasonably quick, it won't be pressured, and his superiority will likely do this field in.

But, if I play multi-race bets I will try to find the likely closer or two to back up with in case the meltdown scenerio occurs. However, in the 20 minutes or so I've looked at this race, I don't think that's likely. Perhaps I will change my mind when I look more.

The very idea that Eddie Castro is back on this horse after absolutely costing him victory last time is beyond ridiculous.

I just don't think that turf speed will translate to the dirt....but your point is valid and if they want to butcher and sacrifice him again then he could prove Daaher's undoing.

I think you are right about Kiss being cheap on dirt. And also that he probably won't be as quick on the dirt, and even if he is - this is NOT the pace scenario you would want for him. :D I don't like Fairbanks at all. I do like the "prep" Spring at Last is coming off of. Has O'Neill had any success shipping to Florida lately? I'm drawing a blank, he probably shipped someone on Millions day?

EDIT looked like he sent down Swiss Current and Cobalt Blue. Both ran about where I expected (to form?) but neither was competitive. My gut says O'neill shipper shouldn't run a recent best, but I don't have a lot of logic behind that.

The idea that Spring at Last won on a surface last time he doesn't even particularly have an affinity for is a good one. My problem with him is I have never thought he was much horse. But, maybe I am being unfairly prejudiced.

The O'Neill shipping factor has occurred to me as well.

Can anyone name the last time O'Neill won with a shipper beyond a mile and a sixteenth? All his horses going longer seem to spit the bit around that mile and sixteenth mark outside of California but just grow stronger at that point in California. Pretty amazing phenomenom.

Four times in the last five years....

The last time was this summer when Shamdinan in the Secretariat ( 1 1/4 turf ). Prior to that Tedo won the Wildcat at Turf Paradise at 1 3/8 on the grass on April 30th 2006. Thor's Echo won the WinStar Derby in April of 2005 at Sunland Park and Supah Blitz won the Carl Rose at Calder in November 2004. Both those races were 1 1/8th on the dirt.

He is 15 for 101 at a mile or over outside of California in the last five years. One was at a mile ( Sky Jack in the Longacres Mile at Emerald Downs in August of 2003 ) and the rest were at 1 1/16th. His ROI, for what it's worth, is 1.45 for those starts.

At 1 1/8th and over his record is 34 starts with 4 wins 2 seconds and 1 third.

I wasn't even thinking turf races since the dynamics of those races can be so different that they may not be as tiring. So April '05 at Sunland and Nov '04 are the last two on the dirt. Pretty staggering numbers. Thanks for the info.

I'm not so sure that they're that bad. He was probably about 2 for 24 in dirt races ( I don't feel like looking it up again ). So he was about 8% shipping. Isn't he only about 13% at home? He was also second with Notional in last year's Florida Derby I think.

We should also look up how he does shipping overall.....and how he does sprints versus routes in California if we want to get the whole picture.

Remind me tomorrow.

Yeah, but he only ships if he has a horse with good odds. ROI doesn't really tell you that much since it doesn't tell you about the obscene waste of money out of state on horses like Lava Man, Cobalt Blue, Andujar, and Great Hunter who have all gone off at low odds at 9f+ and by my count are yet to hit the board. If he had other winners in that time it would be one thing, but he doesn't. Notional did run second in the FL Derby but I happen to think he was talented enough that he would have won the Santa Anita Derby if he stayed home and would have crushed Scat Daddy if they squared off in California.

He looks like a pretty strong single to me, but I guess if I was going to go two-deep I would probably throw in AP Arrow. If there actually is a total meltdown up front - which I also doubt - he seems to me to be the most probable winner. His last race was actually pretty good, he ran fairly well over this track last year, he doesn't have a kiss-of-death outside post, and he seems to run just fine (for him) off of a layoff.