Latest Future Odds for Derby 2008
 

Am heading to Vegas this weekend (anyone else?) and would like to get some future bets down . . . be interested in hearing how the DT'ers would invest $100 on these latest Future Odds?

http://www.horseplayerdaily.com/WYNNKD.pdf

Thanks for the info. That's quite a list to sort through.

I'd play $50 on Turf War and $50 on Giant Moon at 100-1 and 75-1, respectively.

I would put $10 on 10 horses

My list
Blackberry Road
Slew's Tiznow
Turf War
Kodiac Kowboy
Denis of Cork
Country Star
Visionaire
Miamonides
Check It Twice
Jedi Code

I'd put the full $100 on Tale of Ekati at 40/1

tend at 175/1 and vacation at 125/1.

neither will likely make the race though, but what the hey!

ready's echo is 75/1 and is nearing a comeback. will a once raced pletcher trained maiden make it from january to the derby in may?

It's impossible to really squabble with anyone taking a horse of talent at 125/1...

But I see Legacy Thief in the same exact mold as recent fellow Lukas runners Schrimshaw, Flying First Class, and Going Wild.

* Scrimschaw mopped up a super field including Ghostzapper on opening day at SA during the winter meet - he was a natural sprinter Lukas forced to route, could have been an elite sprinter - instead was ruined.

* Going Wild - people forget he had strong figures sprinting - was stretched out in the paceless Sham Stakes and went wire-to-wire over a pro speed, rail favoring track - while eventual Ky Derby winner Giacomo was hung five wide on both turns. Could have been an elite sprinter - instead was ruined.

* Flying First Class - facile 106 Beyer sprint win - big sprint pedigree - was instantly stretched out to two turns and beaten soundly while favored over Curlin. Instead of cutting back - Lukas kept pushing forward to try and make a Derby horse out of an elite sprint prospect. The closest thing he saw to a sprint was the Derby Trial - he was on a fast pace and won easily - and right back into the Preakness. Could have been an elite sprinter - instead was ruined.

* Legacy Theif - on the same card as Dahher's Cigar mile - he carves identical fractions to those turned in by Grade 1 older males - stays on for a wire-to-wire win. In a stroke of impossible genius - Lukas correctly cuts him back, and he wins - and does with identical fractions and final time to a Grade 3 stake for older male sprinters. I get the feeling come June he will be another who could have been an elite sprinter - instead was ruined.

$50 Court Vision
$50 Blackberry Road

If I were you I'd make a $5 dollar wager on whichever horse you like the best that is at least 75/1.
Then I would look over the Gulfstream cards for Saturday and Sunday and try to find a couple of horses you really like in any of those races. I'd spend about $45 playing those.
Then I'd spend the last $50 on alcohol. You can't lose.

I'd put $50 on Cowboy Cal at 75-1 and $50 on Unbridled Vicar at 250-1

NT

Court Vision is my Derby horse this year and I'm sticking to it.

$20 win -

Etched / Golden Spikes / Macho Again / Monba / The Roundhouse



*3,000*

I'd take $20 on Indian Blessing at 10000000-1

Same 2 that caught my eye. I just have a hard time seeing Greg Geier winning the derby.

I put $5 on Coal Play at 175-1 last Saturday..... just hope derby day comes up fast, as he sure didn't like the slop at GP and should be better at the longer distance.

Had to throw $5 on something and wouldn't even consider anything lower than 100-1 on them. The lower odds horses that were running as 2YO's in stakes will end up getting injured, as they've run to much too early.

i hate only 40/1 on Monba but based on his race in the cashcall i will probably be putting some money on him in the first pool of the Derby futures as i loved the way he closed into good fractions at the end of that race and it appeared that the track played pretty fair that day not dominated by one type or the other and i think his breeding has some potential for a KD winner.

50 on Denis of Cork
25 on Cowboy Cal
25 on Golden Spikes

Giant Moon

He's a tough one. On the one hand, getting those odds on a Giant's Causeway that is 4 for 4 lifetime including three stakes wins and two races beyond a mile seems pretty good.
On the other hand, I don't even think he'll prove fast enough to make it to the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby.

I would rather take a shot with two dudes in a horse suit than that horse.

classic

Damn, where was I to get some of that money? What pools are you playing?

50$ Cowboy Cal
10$ Etched
5$ Into Mischief/Maimonades
10$ Coal Play
10$ Double Down Vinman (my homer pick, no real shot at winning)
10$ Blackberry Road

Well basically....yeah.
In a related matter, I think one of the sometimes overlooked ways to do these future wagers is to do the same sort of pedigree analysis someone might do for a 2yo MSW. Look at the horse's pedigree and in addition to looking at the horse's stamina influences (which everybody does) try to see if this horse is likely to be fast developer. Giant Moon is a perfect example. His dam-side pedigree is tailor made to produce a horse that is a fast-developer. The three stallions in the most important positions in his dam-side pedigree (Capote, Deputy Minister, and Lord Durham) were ALL 2yo champions. Capote, meanwhile demonstrated ability to sire precocious 2yos (Boston Harbor etc).
His sire, meanwhile (Giant's Causeway) is a very versatile sire, but he too was a G1 winner at 2, and some of his very best runners have been top-notch 2yos (Shamardal, First Samurai etc).
So basically Giant Moon has a pedigree which indicates that it is LIKELY that this horse will - if he has any ability at all - be good as a 2yo. That is good news if you are looking at him in a 2yo MSW, but in my opinion makes him a bad bet in a future pool. Obviously this pedigree does not preclude him from continuing to improve in the months ahead, but it does mean that he is more likely to have already reached his peak than a colt whose pedigree is less geared towards early development. Now in Giant Moon's case, there is also the tiny matter of him not being very fast. I use him here just as an example.
I don't really play futures, but if I did, my advice would be to only play horses that are very long odds, that seem likely to be able to go 9f and beyond, and whose pedigree hints that they are not likely to have already reached their peak.

When they finally get around to putting on the grass we shall see his truest potential because GC is a much better turf sire than dirt sire, especially with non 2 year olds. The list of accomplished GC dirt horses at age 3 and older is very short as compared to the list of turf horses.

$60 ON CROWN OF THORNS,$40 ON COUNTRY STAR



Actually,I'd put the whole $100 on the horse related to TIAGO("ALONZO"..I THINK).Don't see odds though(so if can't get odds then i'd go with these 2.) Don't know if any of the 3 are still healthy.I'm sure these geeks will know.

Flying First Class was favored over Curlin in the Rebel - look it up.

Albarado stalked the leaders with Curlin in fourth early as Xchanger flew out of the gate to lead the field by himself through fractions of :23 2/5, :47 3/5 and 1:12 2/5. The 9-5 favorite Flying First Class, also coming off a flashy maiden win, was a bit rank early but stayed close to the leader and took over on the final turn for Edgar Prado. But Flying First Class had nothing left for the stretch run. Curlin broke with the second flight of horses, settled behind the leaders, and swept up to the them while four wide and getting out on the final turn. Curlin got the lead at the top of the stretch and kicked clear while under strong handling as he drew off late.

He paid $6.40, $4, and $3.40


http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=38046

More underlays than overlays. Maybe could narrow it down and dutch 5 for a profit on a small wager, but no one is really a lock at this point. Top choices are Court Vision and Monba so far, but it's way to early. Have to watch these others.


EDIT

ATONED -13
COURT VISION -39
COWBOY CAL -13
MONBA -25
VISIONAIRE -10
$100 TOTAL

biggest underlay would have to be Into Mischief.

Rather harsh opinion IMO... he hasn't proven to be exceptionally fast yet but he's also done zero wrong and none of this crop has proven anything yet, outside of War Pass.

I've seen 60/1 somewhere.

Interesting thought. I've liked that a horse a bit since the Arlington meet. If Mad Flatter runs well enough in the Lecomte, it would make that guy a whole lot more attractive.

I love the price, but would still love to see him run a "fast" race. He seems to be on the improve, no doubt, but he has yet to run a race that indicates that he's in the same league as any of the division leaders, and I feel like he's had a few good chances to do so.

With THAT said, I suppose that's why you get 250-1 on him...and I liked his last race an awful lot.

Now that you've got me thinking about it, maybe I'll put some money on that when I'm in Vegas in a few weeks.

Best horse you have never heard of Miner's Claim (150-1). But soon you all will know him.

You're right. It was the middle of the night. As I was walking this morning it came to me that they met in the Rebel as well as the Arkansas Derby. The fact that I took Curlin at 5:2 that day only further goes to show how brain dead I am. Then again, I'm a SMALL bettor. :D

Nothing on that board looks interesting to me right now.

alot of the horse on the board can't get 7 furlongs, much less 10.