AQU: Fri/Sat Stakes
 

8th (3:48) Top Flight H. (G2)

1 Mile | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 Baby Bird Luzzi M J 114 L
2 Mini Sermon Coa E M 114 L
3 Altesse Bravo J 116 L
4 Golden Velvet Garcia Alan 113 L
5 Lady Marlboro Castellano J J 113 L
6 Cindy's Mom Hill C 114 L
7 Pool Land Castro E 121 L
8 Lost Etiquette Arroyo N Jr 113 L



6th (2:49) Demoiselle S. (G2)

1 1/8 Miles | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $200,000

1 Melissa Jo Arroyo N Jr 115
2 Expect the End Velasquez C 119 L
3 Mushka Velazquez J R 115 L
4 Be Fruitful Castellano J J 115 FTL
5 Sunday Elegance Gomez G K 115 L
6 Home Crowd McCauley W H 115 L
7 Elusive Lady Coa E M 119 L



7th (3:19) Remsen S. (G2)

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $200,000

1 Court Vision Coa E M 122 L
2 Springs Road Castellano J J 116 L
3 Big Truck Garcia Alan 116 L
4 Tide Dancer Gomez G K 116 L
5 Trust N Dustan Velasquez C 116 L
6 Atoned Velazquez J R 120 L



8th (3:48) Hill 'N' Dale Cigar Mile S. (G1)

1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $300,000

1 Midnight Lute Gomez G K 123 L
2 Sir Greeley Velazquez J R 116 L
3 Naughty New Yorker Castellano J J 114 L
4 Diamond Isle Garcia Alan 114 L
5 Daaher Luzzi M J 114 L
6 City Attraction Bravo J 114 L
7 Xchanger Velasquez C 114 L

A-Coupled: Diamond Isle and City Attraction

Am a little stunned that no one has a thought or comment on Daaher's win over Midnight Lute Saturday... This wasn't exactly a glowing endorsement for Lute's hopes to stretch back out next year, and was one of a number of post-BC efforts over the holiday that was less than great or slightly dull.

Daaher got away with a :46.1 half, and I said to myself at that point that he might be tough to run down. He then proceeded to finish in :47.2. McLaughlin seems to regularly pounce when laying in wait for situations like this. While a fuller field would have been nice, you have to appreciate KMc being undetered by Lute's presence here and Baffert's aggressive approach starting Lute when many would have put him away post Cup...

And... a tip of the cap to Pat Kelly who cleverly got a Gr. I placement for Naughty New Yorker out of the affair.

Thought "Lute" might be vulnerable in that spot for two reasons....Short turnaround (for him anyway) and his breathing issues. Did seem like he got hit by a 2x4 around midstretch. Of course I wasn't bright enough to back that up at the windows..
Also thought Nobiz had a lot taken out of him by the BC Mile on the very soft turf. I know people like to beat him on this board but I find any horse coming off a race on a very soft course needs some extra time..

I don't know why this horse hasn't generated any buzz. I was wondering why no one was commenting on him back in September:

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16820

His 114 Beyer is higher than Street Sense, Hard Spun, or Any Given Saturday ever got. The only 3yo with a better Beyer is Curlin. Will be very interested to see how he does in the Donn which will likely determine whether he goes to the Dubai World Cup or the Godolphin Mile.

I wasn't at all surprised about Daaher beating Midnight Lute.

First of all, his speed is undeniable, and with the small field thought it really played to his strength and that the Lute would be at a disadvantage. In what amounted to a match race scenario I'm not sure the take back and make a run approach was the best idea, especially with a horse as talented as Daaher. But really it may not have mattered even if he was allowed to run.
In the end you can't say that it was a poor effort by ML as he was chasing a very fast horse that was able to run comfortable fractions on a track that to me favors early speed.

Daaher is a bigtime prospect for sure, but I'll want to see him going 9f or better around two turns before getting all giddy. Of course I can say the same for Midnite Lute.

I also think there's a very distinct possibility that Midnight Lute has serious distance limitations.

agree, I suspect him of distance limitations moreso than Daaher

Any human sprinter (100M or 200M) would have trouble stretching out to 400M or 1/2 mile,for example, so, in that sense, ML was at a disadvantage going up against a distance horse that had early speed. And no matter how much/specifically Baffet trained him for the mile, I don't think there's any way a horse could overcome this disadvantage ---especially if it didn't figure to make the front and (try to) control the pace.

But an interesting question is which horse out there presently do you think would've been able to run down Daaher, given the way the race shaped up? This just might put that effort into perspective.

if i understand you correctly I think this is a good question. If you're asking which horse could have been substituted into that race in place of Midnite Lute that could have run down Daaher? Very hard to answer, probably not many. i really can't think of any, its hard to run down a fast horse with no pace pressure at a distance that is well within his scope.

I'm intrigued by the consensus as to the (lack of ) pace of that race. The splits were:

23.10 23.22 23.50 23.97

so, Daaher is slowing down at a relatively consistent pace (.10, .28, .47)

But, even though the initial fraction was slow(ish) it has yet to be mentioned that Daaher didn't break all that well, as Xchanger gapped the field at the break, coming in at the break and bumped soundly with the 4, and then was hustled by Luzzi to stay close to Xchanger in the run to the 1st quarter, and didn't take the lead until just before the 1st quarter. So, even though the 1st qtr was slow, Daaher certainly did more work than the others during that portion of the race. He ran as much as, or more so, than any other horse in the race and finished relatively straight (wavering a half path or so in either direction) in the stretch; as did Midnight Lute.

Obviously I understand the race dynamics and the herculean effort that it would have taken from Midnight Lute to overcome that. However, he barely made an effective run, and considering his past failures going past 7F, it is hardly unreasonable to question how far he wants to go.

oh i agree with all that, I didn't mean to imply there was no pace.

i didnt care for the ride........... the horse was strangled for the first 1/2 mile. you cannot fight a horse like that, he should have engaged the other horse right away. that being said, it may or may not have changed the outcome.

I really get annoyed when somebody comes on and says 'he got a big Beyer number so he must be a great horse'. First of all, I don't put much credence in speed numbers as a measure of quality, especially at the NY tracks (and a couple of others) where the numbers seem to be somewhat inflated. Quality is measured in head-to-head competition. In this case, this is a one-turn mile performance - how can that be compared to two-turn distances of 1 or 2 furlongs longer? The races are two different animals.

Where did anyone say that Daaher was a " great horse?" Find the post.

Secondly, who the hell cares what you think of Beyer figs? Hell, you call yourself " Pedigree Ann " and have displayed at best a cursory understanding of pedigree. I can only imagine what you know about speed figures. Judging by this post it's zero. But, since you are obviously in dire need of a lesson, and have shown a great willingness to learn on this site, here's a little help for you. Daaher ran 14/5s of a second faster than a Lukas runaway 2YO maiden winner earlier in the card. That's over sixteen lengths which equates to approximately 33 points. Considering the Lukas horse won by open lengths, over a couple of reasonably talented 2YOs, and had received two Beyer figures of 74, it's hardly a stretch to say that he ran a ran a figure of around 80. That would put Daaher's 114 right in line.

As for your comment about quality being measured in head to head competition.......ummmm he drowned recent Breeder's Cup winner Midnight Lute. Who exactly was he supposed to beat for you to have approved of his performance? And, if what you really meant was that he can't be compared to the 3YOs he mentioned, because they raced at different distances, well I think it is obvious to most that he wasn't necessarily saying Daaher was better than those horses, only that his performance certainly warranted discussion.

On your unfounded, and unsubstantiated comments of " bias " in the figs....well Daaher ran a 107 Beyer fig at Saratoga going 1 1/8 miles. Street Sense got a 105 Beyer at 1 1/8 in the Jim Dandy at Saratoga and a 108 at 1 1/4 in the Travers. What was the bias in those numbers at Saratoga that placed Daaher in fair comparison to this year's Derby winner? Plus, the 107, which also equaled Curlin's figure in the Belmont Stakes ( also run on a NY track ), that Daaher received was in just his 5th start. Believe it or not, horses often improve with racing, so it's not a stretch that he has surpassed at least some of those mentioned at this point.

Pedigree Ann thanks for bringing out his best. It's a true talent to bait a genius.

My opinion is that you can't take too much out of this race. Daaher is obviously a quality horse but I don't think this race did anything to prove that. I thought he had only one horse to beat and that one horse had many things going against him. First, there was a nine pound weight disadvantage for ML. Second, he was making a relatively short (for him and for today's racehorse) comeback after being trained to peak just a month ago. I do not like backing horses that come back soon after running in a peak race. Same reason why I'll not bet an Arc winner running back in the BC Turf. Fourth, the winner was allowed to waltz along under very moderate fractions and would have been hard to catch by ANY horse, especially carrying only 114 pounds on his back. Fourth, the distance was further than he had ever shown his best at. I know all about the breathing issues and Baffert saying that they had been overcome but I'm not so sure about how much stock I put into that excuse. I mean, when he was losing his route races early in the year, it's not like he was running horrible races. To me, his performances didn't look like a horse that was having breathing issues. When I see a horse making moves and then all of a sudden stop and give it up, that's when I can see something is wrong. Lute never exhibited that. In his two route tries, he earned figures of 105 and 103 and both races were lost by less than two lengths. Instead of looking like a horse that was running and stopped because he wasn't getting his air, he looked to me like a horse that didn't want to run that far. It looked the same to me in the Cigar. Fifth, it looked like a very overconfident ride by ML's jockey. It seemed like the horse wanted to go on but the rider was fighting not to let him. Maybe it doesn't effect the outcome but I would have liked to see what would have happened had they allowed Lute to go after Daaher earlier and put some pressure on him instead of choking him down and, IMO, taking some of the fight out of him.

As far as the whole rider argument goes, am I the only one who thinks Garrett Gomez is terrible at rating horses and can really only be trusted with one-run closers?

I've got three rides in Grade I races as examples.

NT

Once again a jockey is being given too much credit for affecting the outcome of a race. How in the world the debate about Garrett Gomez's ride could possibly diminish the exceptional performance by Daaher is way beyond me.

Daaher ran well. He didn't run the greatest race we've ever seen but he still ran very well. He also got a good trip, but he made the most of it, and has certainly established himself as a quality animal in a reasonably short period of time. He also showed in the Jerome that he can rate. No, he has not successfully shown an ability to overcome genuine adversity. No, he has not shown absolute brilliance. But, he's pretty good, and in today's racing world where mediocrities are routinely applauded he has certainly shown more than most. Right now I think it's fair to say his accomplishments compare at least favorably to those of Discreet Cat. Last year at this time I recall a lot of people suggesting that Discreet Cat might be an all-time great. Now, that was obviously jumping the gun, but finding ways to somehow diminish Daaher's recent record is even more out of line.

Oh no, don't get me wrong, Daaher ran great and the race further proved in my mind that Lute doesn't want anything beyond seven furlongs.

NT

It is amazing the difference in attention given to the two horses. Discreet Cat finished his 3yo season with wins in an allowance, the Jerome, and the Cigar Mile. His Beyers were 112/115/116. Daaher won the same three races. I don't have his Beyers in front of me but I believe they are something like 107/110/114. Not a lot separating the two there and realistically based on the pattern you could conclude that Discreet Cat had plateaued at that point while Daaher is still on the upswing.

Discreet Cat was a story for a year and a half....and apparently only you noticed Daaher a few months ago. With Discreet Cat it was a case of people wanting to be right ( not that he wasn't impressive ) while in this case since most missed the boat they are less than dismissive. Why do you think nobody was even discussing this race?

The Cigar Mile was basically a classic circumstantial race - you had only two horses in the race who could so much as stand up - and in the match-race like situation the winner owned every circumstantial edge possible over the 2nd place finisher.

Daaher really proved nothing in this race - beyond the fact that he's held the form he showed in his two prior big figure wins earned under more legit circumstances.

After his big figure Saratoga win - which came over a track labeled good and one race removed from a Fort Erie loss....it was hard not to be somewhat skeptic about him becoming a top horse.

Like Cannon said, losing at Fort Erie can kind of be something of a buzzkill - at least these days anyway. After all, the great Northern Dancer suffered the worst defeat in his career at the hands of Ramblin Rod in the '63 Vandal Stakes at Fort Erie...Dance Smartley fell victim at 2/5 in the '90 Ontario Debutante...but who really gives a crap about obscure Fort Erie trivia anyway?

Daaher addressed all the questions anyone could possibly have had about him with a 110 Beyer fast track win - without the aid of any kind of favorable trip in the Jerome.

Midnight Lute certainly lost nothing in defeat - another tremendous race he ran under impossible circumstances. Any idea of him somehow having distance limitations exposed in defeat are a little bit comical. He's only ran at a mile or beyond TWICE in his life - all of three weeks apart - and his two tough trip defeats in both Strub and San Fernando were at least as good, if not better, than a pair of surrounding seven furlong races in The Malibu one start prior and The Commonwealth one start post.

A lot of people made a big deal about the HUGE sheet figure numbers Midnight Lute earned in his last two - but his sheet figure in the Cigar will easily beat Daaher's. Daaher did win by a margin of 2.5 lengths - but on the sheet figure scale Midnight Lute carried 2.88 lengths more in weight - and was 2 paths wider on the turn. Which means Midnight Lute's sheet fig for the Cigar will actually comeback exactly 2.38 lengths faster than the winner.

While the Thoro-Graph and Ragozin may say Midnight Lute ran 2.38 lengths faster - they really miss the boat because they DON'T take pace, trip, and trainer preperation into consideration.

And I believe Dahher had giant edges in all three categories.

* Pace: There was only one other race on the card run at the same one-mile distance. In that race, Mike Luzzi was able to get fractions of 23.27 and 46.57 enroute to a blowout wire-to-wire win on a 12/1 shot 2yo maiden. Dahher went just 0.17 seconds faster to the quarter mile and 0.25 seconds faster to the half mile. Dahher posted almost identical early fractions to those turned in by a wire-to-wire 2yo 12/1 shot MSW winner...and that maiden had never made a lead at any call in his three lifetime races prior.

* Trip: Not only did Dahher get away with absurdly soft fractions - he did so while totally unpressured and rating kindly on the lead in a soft field. Meanwhile, Midnight Lute was understandably pulling hard in the early stages, while rating behind that soft pace....while on a two furlong stretch-out, and going sprint-to-route for a trainer who keeps their feet to the flames in the AM..and shows a huge 55% loss on the dollar trainer stat with spr-to-route stretchouts.

*Trainer Prep: Much like with Discreet Cat last year - the Cigar Mile was the goal since summer for the winner - who raced in a Saratoga allowance and the Jerome in his two prior starts. Kiaran McLaughlin is as skilled as any trainer I've ever seen in my lifetime. He got the hapless Closing Argument to almost win the KY Derby as the 20th choice in the betting, he took a star from Urugay (think South American version of Louisiana Downs at best) and turned him into a Horse of the Year. He took a hanging Euro and won the Filly and Mare Turf - he is to Fernando Jara and Alan Garcia what Randy Moss was to an OLD Randall Cunningham and Jeff George. While Dahher stayed in New York prepping for the race under McLaughlin...

Midnight Lute was doing a lot of shipping and had the Breeders Cup Sprint as his main goal - I doubt the three cross country ships in less than 3 months were a big deal. What was a big deal was the fact that Baffert REALLY PUT IT ON this horse in the workouts leading up to the BC. Less than a week before the BC Sprint, Midnight Lute worked offically 57.60 for five furlongs - though Baffert pubicly said he caught the work in 56 and change. It was reported in the DRF that Baffert was screaming "Go! Go! Go!" to the excersize rider on the walkie talkie during that work. That work was Clearly the result of the fear that long striding Midnight Lute might find the six furlongs of the BC Sprint way too sharp for him. Thus, put all the speed you can in him six days before the race. He was trained perfectly for a fast paced 6f race considering the distance concerns - the way he was rank in the early stages of the Cigar...I think he has an excuse for wanting to do more.

All in all, Daaher basically ran the same excellent race for the 3rd time in a row. His fig was 4 points higher than last out - but his circumstances were atleast that much better.

Midnight Lute was a classic case of a vulnerable 1/2 shot with superior form. He did nothing wrong....and I would back him as the more likely winner of the two if they met at a mile in a fairly run race.

Dahher is lightly raced - has great developmental breeding - a great developmental trainer - and has every right to improve. Midnight Lute has had past breathing and soundness issues for a trainer who's horses sometimes burn out. Room for improvement is the one and only area where Dahher has ML - and he has him good in that regard.

Great post Druggie-poo.

I like how everyone neglects to mention that the race was the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown. It's not like he lost a cheap claimer or a maiden race at Fort Erie or ever even ran there for less than half a million.

Roses in May, Pleasantly Perfect, and Azeri must have been pretty crappy horses too for losing at Lone Star Park.

So, basically you're saying that if the race were run 'fairly',that is, if some other horse hooked Daaher in fast fractions, and ML were allowed to close off the duel, ML would win and thereby prove to be the superior horse. But why would that scenario be 'fair' and the one where Daaher controls the pace (though he actually did quite a bit of running to do so ---take a look at the start and the run to the 1st quarter) and buries ML NOT 'fair'?

Because he has a hidden aganda......he's upset that someone has drawn the obvious comparisons between Daaher and his beloved Discreet Cat.

Simply put DrugS ruleS

He ran an 80 Beyer and was a soundly beaten 3rd behind the likes of Alezzandro and Jiggs Coz....

I've been to more than a few runnings of the PoW Stakes at Fort Erie in my day....while it is most often the best race FE has to offer in a year - it's hardly a race of real high quality.

Dude - he ran almost identical fractions to a 2yo maiden who payed $26 to win and pasted the field in wire-to-wire fashion - while the 6/1 shot who pressed him stayed on for 3rd.

Dahher was not kept even slightly honest in that race. He had a 2.5 length lead after a half mile through a crawl - while ML was rank.

By fairly run race - I basically mean an average Grade 1 pace in a field of atleast seven or eight horses - where there is at least one other horse with a hint of early speed.

By no means do I think the Prince of Wales was a quality race. Just not specifying which Fort Erie race he lost gives the impression he was some cheap horse that came out of nowhere rather than a horse that shipped up from NY for a $500,000 race. And obviously the blinkers have made a huge difference.

You are starting to think like a 9/11 Truther....

People can compare Daaher with DC all they want. I'm not here to argue that. It's Tuesday...I've done a lot of tedious pen and notebook work lately...and it's either I post a little or do something horrible like shave for the first time in three days or go outside.

As for your comparison - I'll bet you anything Daaher has the better 4yo season. Even if he goes to Dubai and they try their worst....

As it played out, I think DC was probably the more precious of the two - and his Saratoga allowance, Jerome, and Cigar Mile sweep were all done with better individual efforts.

Why not just shave one of the two hairs.

No doubt they have.

I'm with Cannon on this one though - saying that losing at Fort Erie is a buzz kill sounds slightly better than losing the POW is a buzzkill.

Style points my friend.

Is pedigree query correct that Daaher only sold for $375K as a yearling despite being a full to Spun Sugar?

And what exactly had the marvelous Spun Sugar accomplished at that point in her illustrious career?

Yes, he was the 3rd most expensive of 30 yearlings sired by AA to sell at auction that year.

And - when he sold in Sept of '05...Spun Sugar had just one stakes win on her resume. A grade 2 win in the Black Eyed Susan.

At that point - she hadn't put a nose on Balletto at Saratoga - and proved herself to be Anti-DrugS.

Much like you hadn't - until you just made a crack on moi for ...of all things ... lacking hair.

Actually a lot more than I thought....albeit slowly.