Kip Deville to dominate the VA derby
 

Many here, especially boldruler said ieah pissed 500k away on the son of kipling. Already earned back 200k and the likely favorite in the 1m va derby. Spoke with those boys today and they just had a press conference with the ntra. They are flying down in a private jet, leaving at 6.30 after the va derby and are flying straight to canterbury as they have the odds on fav in the claiming crown. then flying home. they are clearly the hottest partnership out there. There website shows purses over 1m dollars already putting among the top 15 earners in the country going into a big weekend for them. I have bought one horse with them...holly time and he won in his first start for me a will run aug. 6 at the spa.....jeff

He's not winning. It all looks too easy on paper, no speed lined up, huge race over the surface---no thanks, too good to be true. Off the board.

that sounds like a sophisticated analysis

LOL. It is actually. I haven't seen his thoro yet, but why can't he bounce here. Sorry I'm not swallowing 3-1 on him back off that effort. But please dig in.

Easily the horse to beat if he can negotiate the added ground....lone speed, good jock change, second-time Dutrow....looks tough to me and I don't even like the horse much...

ran a 5 on the sheets two back for mike neatherlin, ran a 7 for dutrow in the col cup. should actually move forward as he bounced in his last. Dutrow has also had enough time with him now to have him razor sharp and i am hearing he is on his game. breezed 59 on the dirt yesterday as well.

Without seeing his overall pattern I can't tell you whether I think he'll move forward. I'm not denying how it looks, but when a race screams no speed, somebody is liable to go with him. Especially now that he's not 25-1. He is the hunted now, not somebody the jocks will simply let get away.

agreed he has to be dealt with but who wants to run with him? more importantly who can and live to tell about it

Additionally, who can go 1:09 and four into the far turn for the first six furlongs, because that is what it'll take to be anywhere close to him as they turn for home....I don't see anyone fast enough, really...

I believe i said I thought they overpaid for him and that he was running for second or third money because Showing Up would win. It looks like I was right about Showing Up and wrong about their investment. Showing Up just destroyed him in the Colonial Cup.

Showing Up is just a better horse than KD. He proved it a couple weeks ago. KD is the Sinister Minister of the grass. He could win a few nice races but he could never beat the top grass horses because he can't rate. Showing Up has an explosive turn of foot and he can rate. That is why is a far better animal. Showing Up is going next in a grade 1, KD is not likely to ever see a grade 1. The top older horses would mow him down, just like Showing Up did. Don't be surprised if they mow him down again this weekend. On the turf, a front runner like KD is only capable of beating a mediocre bunch. He seems to have that this weekend, so he has a shot.

That added 1/16th is big trouble for a horse like him. If Steppenwolfer takes to the turf he will blow by him just like Showing Up did. They are just better horses.

I think he bounces. Off the board... JMO.

Who was number 1 in earners in the country with two horses in the top 5? :)

IEAH is excellent though. Good luck with them.

he is back...where is showing up? let me guess it will be 95degrees in va this weekend, that is to hot for tagg. I mean it was only 94 in the col cup. Another thing, KD can dipose of SU, post 14, crazy fractions, missed breezes, barn change, inexperienced rider, still only beat 3. you make showing up to be john henry, Kd did all the work and back ready in 3 weeks. SU passes on the 1m to run in the 4ook. let me guess, that makes sense because it is a grade one or he expects a blizzard in chicago. Usually a cool place in august. Sounds like a bunch of crap to me..

Good horse don't need to. I think that was proven a few weeks back. Another 1/16th last race and he loses by 10 and finishes 6th or 7th.

I beleive Steppenwolfer is a fraud...never liked this horse and never will....when La-Breds beat him an an entry-level allowance at FG earlier this year, I knew he was a fake....He is just an Impeachment special...a clunk-up horse or plodder....He could take to the grass and still easily lose this race...he won't be within 20 lengths of KD down the backstretch.....

the extra sixteenth means nothing. It is the way the race plays out that will determine its result. If nobody leaves with him the distance won't matter, it may actually help him because many of these horses have never been close to a mile and a quarter and there riders will restrain them even harder earlier

I disagree, Joel... we shall see.

The right pace scenario, which he might get, makes him a player. Didn't he hit the board in the Derby? Tough to call him a fraud off that effort. I am leaning towards Go Between doing exactly what Showing Up did and running down KD.

It doesn't always work that way. Sometimes a horse will burn up more energy being restrained than if they were let go... Kip Deville is a good example of that. IF he would have been rated (or attempted to be rated) last time out, he would have been burnt out. I like KD. I actually remember arguing with bold over his pedigree. With that said, I don't care for him in this race. No offense...

What? The extra 1/16th means everything with that horse. He is a speedball who eventually will run out of gas. Nobody bothered him last race and he barely made it to the wire. This race he has to go 1/16th more. Like I said, against these horses he might hang on, but I doubt you see him in the grade 1 in 4 weeks because Showing Up and Bill Mott's horse would humiliate him at 10F.

Maybe BC Mile or something like that, but 10F is a lot to ask for a horse that can't rate. Ask Sinister Minister.

You and mp3 were right about him. He is a very nice horse, but it is crucial to be able to rate on the turf. KD will never rate, it probably would ruin him. Baffert didn't try with SM and I doubt they did it with KD.

He had a superb opportunity to prove me worng when he came in fresh and off of a great worktab at his home track of Belmont Park in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes, which frankly he should have relished - yet he still ran bad like a plodder and made me a lot of money when people bet on him.....he owed it to me because I didn't hit the TRI in the Derby because of him but had the 4th, 5th and 6th-place horses in the third spot and was disgusted when "Saint" and "Brother" got horrid trips - or they would have squashed him for the show spot.....Beleive me, I love Danny Peitz and wish him the best, but this is just a horse I don't think very highly of at all.....as a matter of fact, I helped graze the horse with Peitz's assistant two weeks before the Derby at CD and he is a cool horse..I just don't care for him as a bone fide top class race horse....

unfair that everyone is saying he was on an unchallenged lead. The rider tapped him 4x at the start and he ran off. To grab him at that point is a mistake, he was on a clear lead because he set fractions that were more like a timer malfunction. He ran them off there feet. If the half was more like 47 he would have won

I'm very interested in seeing how he runs on the turf. He's bound to get a win at some point soon and this COULD be it. I'll take my chances and play him in my tri.

Uh, no. He would not have won. The better horse won, and he won easily. That horse could never beat a good horse that can rate. This is turf racing, not dirt. The good ones all have explosive turns of foot. You will never find a great turf horse that runs on the lead.

lure, leroidesanimeaux, roman envoy etc...

What is the website mentioned earlier for the connections of this horse? What is the name of the horse that is running in the claiming Crowm. I suspect it is the only Dutrow horse that is entered I am not looking at the entries but I believe its Sinners N Saints. They must be very confident if they are hopping on a plane to fly to Canterbury Park.

www. IEAH.com

Milers. KD might be a BC Mile horse, but this race isn't a mile.

agree his best distance will surely be a mile. He may just be better than these 4 miles over the jumps. Horses like Ec or cicique different story

I have said it on 2 other threads and I will say it on this one...

Manchu Prince

His full sister was a million dollar yearling at the 2005 September Keeneland sale. Do you think he'll be able to close as strong as he did in his first start? :confused:

Kev manchu Prince looks awfully slow and hasn't beaten anything. If I was going to try to beat Kip I would stick with Roman Dynasty. His last was better than it looked. Hung 3 wide in 3rd chasing that wicked pace in his first grass start, he went back to 6th place and then rerallied for 4th. That race and pace were far more strenuous than anything that he had ever encountered before and was teh kind of race(hung wide chasing wicked pace, dropped bac, rerallied) that will really get to the bottom of a horse and tighten him up. Hes by far the value play for gimmicks.

Hes my pick and I am sticking to him. He may not have beaten much in here, but what horse in this race has?

Manchu Prince is 2nd off a long (4 month) layoff. I have seen his races and I love the way he moves, especially the way he finishes. I think he is very capable of improving at this stage in his career.

Just my opinion and I am sticking to it.

I am inclined to want horses that didn't run in the Colonial Turf Cup. I just think other than the first two finishers in that race nobody ran a lick. Most had pretty good trips, save I suppose Yate's Black Cat, who was eliminated at the break. Kip Deville obviously could win, but something about his last effort smells to me, and I highly doubt in the three weeks between these races that he will have learned to rate comfortably, and MUCH more often than not a horse like this will evaporate. I will be very interested to see how he does in this race and more interested in where and particularly when he shows up again.

I don't know how many saw Proudinsky's race at Arlington but I thought he was very impressive. I recommend taking a good look at it. He broke a half slow and was sluggish early. He did save ground before angling out late on the second turn but as the rider tried to swing him for clear room in the stretch he was hopelessly hemmed in. He then ducked towards the inside, now rallying later than obviously hoped, and still picked his way between horses and was absolutely flying to miss by a bob. This is all the more impressive when you consider the speed NEVER came back, as the winner wired and the third horse stalked him. Now, I realize the field didn't seem super strong on paper but I hardly think he is meeting any killers in Saturday's race.

this horse kip wont get the easy lead again and with the others who didnt run as well yates,roman ..and new shooters, step spider,,hes no lock in fact i dont think hes in the top two my picks to win are..genre ,proudinsky...the im gonna steal it run will be challenged ..

The only thing I didn't like about that race is the fact that I know Kingship well and I know that colt couldn't run with these kind of horses, nor could Arbuckle Bandit - the close third-place finisher....I discount that ARL race more than anything, BUT he could definately improve in his second start in the States and Tanaka's boys are usually no dumbies, that is for sure...

I don't know Joel, Kinship had only one previous turf start, and while it didn't come up a particualrly fast race, it wasn't terrible, and he won by 8ish lengths. Whatever horse he was on the dirt previously becomes completely irrelevent as he is at least OK on the turf. I'm not sure who is so special in this race Saturday.

Believe me, I'm not crazy about Proudinsky, and I have reservations similar to yours. I do however think his performance was considerably better than it looks on paper.

The Werner camp is one that I'm pretty close to and we were all over him in the betting in his maiden and recent stakes win, but they don't think he is good enough to win the Secretariat....just saying....and I know Arbuckle Bandit well from the Fair Grounds @ LaD meet and he was a claimer back then...I know he has improved since the claim but he was still a claimer and doesn't even have a grass pedigree, which also doesn't always mean anything....I agree taht fresh bloos may be the way to go in a race like this if you do not believe that 'Kip' can wire....what is your take on Seaside Retreat?...I just think that he is a better 3YO King Cugat than Kingship so I am kind of leaning his way in EXs with Kip Deville....I hate the California horse and have never been a big Go Between fan....