11/6: Churchill (Late P4)
 

Election Day treat at the Downs Tuesday should be the focus for players with a highly attractive late quartet... Don't forget $154,000+ carryover at Aqueduct Wednesday! (And more importantly, don't forget to vote...)


CHURCHILL DOWNS


7th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Being termed the best maiden race of the year around the Downs this week..

Best Value: #3 Mr Maccool 15-1: Slick Foley gets them going 3rd lifetime.. 2nd
Most Likely: #7 Holy Humor 4-1: Pletcher-WinStar-DistHumor-2nd out..
Exotics Use: #5 Sacred Journey 5-1: $325k Stewart first brings bullets.. 4th
Super Add: #4 Credit Only 3-1: Margolis bay looks useful at underlay tab.. WON

$1 Exacta 4-3 $47.60


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Pure Star 4-1: McPeek good at holding winning form.. 3rd
Most Likely: #3 Star of Luvina 3-1: Figures prominent if ready on return..
Exotics Use: #5 Stars Portent 9-2: Next logical include after top pair.. 2nd
Super Add: #2 Awsugahnow 6-1: Making a career of finishing 4th.. WON

$1 Exacta 2-5 $32.50
$1 Trifecta Box $124.30


9th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Sea of Trees 15-1: Bay first time DWL; Not impossible..
Most Likely: #7 Storm Treasure 3-1: Back to circle last after an eternity.. WON
Exotics Use: #1 Trimaran 7-2: Frankel grey has faced quality company..
Super Add: #2 Malameeze 8-1: The male 'Awsugah'; Have always liked him.. 2nd

$1 Exacta 7-2 $57.90


10th: S/ALW, 2yo, 6.5f (Super)

Best Value: #5 Dr. W 9-2: Ro Parra procurement goes 1st Asmussen.. 2nd
Most Likely: #2 Possibi 4-1: Maker's Posse bay manhandled Presque babies.. WON
Exotics Use: #8 Cape Hatteras 3-1: Overbrook gave up fast on Cape Town homebred.. 3rd
Super Add: #4 Executive Chief 12-1: McCann Chief Seattle broke maiden here.. 4th

$1 Exacta 2-5 $25.30
$1 Trifecta Box 2-5-8 $102.30
$1 Superfecta 2-5-8-4 $608.10


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-5-6-7-11
8: 3-4
9: 1-7
10: 2-5

6x2x2x2 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

I had a look to the Lukas in the feature as well. Like that Kent D took the mount, that is if he is trying this race.
Wouldn't leave Self Made Man out of the P4 play. Good value with J Lep going elsewhere. Robby's a capable replacment.

Did include Self Made Man in P4 as it happens, as well as the Romans candidate Salt Water. This is one that looks tougher than it likely turns out to be...

I cant believe you left me out of your ticket

:eek: You're out there touting Dallas!

"he trains like a pretty good horse" wink, wink... Do you need the special secret decoder ring?

6f may too short but he should at least be in the top 6....it is a hooves like play

And went 6 deep to boot...

OK then.. Here are 'Makutus' P3/P4 back-ups:

$20 P3 Play:

7: 2
8: 3-4
9: 1-7

1x2x2 = 4 x $5 = $20


$20 P4 Play:

7: 2
8: 3-5
9: 7
10: 2-5

1x2x1x2 = 4 x $5 = $20

late pick 4

3,5,7
3,5
1,4,10
2,5

I purchased the DRF PP's from Twinspires and they won't load. I called customer service and they won't e-mail me the damn thing.

I give up. Good luck today to those playing.

Especially when you consider how often Steve, apparently, loves his fifth or sixth choice.

May take a 7th or 8th in what is being called the toughest Maiden race at the Downs this year..

I look forward to betting against a hot Dallas Stewart firster in any race....much less a tough one.

Election Day 4
 

Solid maiden heat brings a contentious dozen and among them is SALT WATER. Pricy Yonaguska charge sports exceptional win early genes and Romans thought enough of this one to take him north. Work pattern indicates a big strong individual and Kent D. takes the reins. Credit Only is the one to beat, gets Robby and comes in on a perfect schedule, Sacred Honor is a full to a monster and although Stewarts, firsters generally need one UN B Song colt could not be working any better. Mr. Maccool has experience and will run a new top, Mr. Serious gets the fence, Raffie and halloween half portends for good things and Makutus who sports an odd work history but Oct 13 half mile certainly means this one can scoot even if more ground is needed. Lastly Holy Humor for team TAP with a DH colt and barn awesome with this work pattern. Seven long.

8) The speed here took a hit with the scratch of the rail filly but there should be enough gas for Calvin to run them down on AWSUGAHNOW. Thrice second this class to fillies that would smoke these. Last cross state a bit too far and Ian white hot. Also STARS PORTENT who comes out of the same race and blowout since makes this one live for McGee and longtime clients.

9) SLAM MY HEART would appear to have these over a barrel. Late foal by Grand Slam raced well for Maker who shipped to Ocala for the stake and as this sire has proven repeatedly they can come unglued at any time. Fractious and no factor before shipped to Chicago for another stake, before Mountaineer cakewalk. Horses get nervous when things do not go right and the Arlington soft turf did this one in when coming unglued again. Mike and Ron decide to run for 50K and Romans grabs him after easy score at even money. Fixed, shipped to California colt runs for 80K and explodes late but cannot reel in loose speed with the rail out, yet closes last furlong substantially faster than Multiple Graded Stakeswinner After Market, later on card. Back to Chicago for one turn mile filled with trouble, then Keeneland nine panel test with Guidry up and colt breaks sharp and is eased back off loose cannon bug and loses a bit of position yet still comes home faster than Vacare and Purim later on same card. Racing in the two path today and this one figures a good voyage and if so the one to beat.

Nightcap

Dr. W should have little trouble with this bunch. Given a couple by Gomez before being blinkered and tagged up. Cat thief colt ran very well behind runaway winner. Moved up in class for score at fifteen to one running down a 7-10 shot, before catching Yelt who has won about ten in a row. Worked back ten days out and passing vet check lands in Assmussen barn for Parra after usual clever TG recommendation. Stable jock up after excellent work pattern.. the days best at a short number. Not a difficult sequence to cap; maybe to hit. Call it 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 / 2,5 / 9 / 5 BBB

Uh-oh.....I singled the same horse as BBB in the finale. Stevie Wonder gave him to me.

2,6 and 7 in the first leg for me.

7 deep to get the 3rd choice. Not bad, Todd.

I think I'll fool around in the 8th with Lilly Carson. She was cut out to be a good horse after her first two races and obviously has had her share of problems. She switches to a trainer who seems to race mostly at smaller Ohio tracks but he has good numbers and at a big price why not. Used her with the 2, 3 and a little 8.

Over a barrel is kind of a sexual overtone. Looks like he's the bottom today though.

Heartbreaker missing this P4.. $1426.90 for a $1..

Great handicapping Steve. You hit all four exacta's, 2 tri's, and a super. Don't be to hard on yourself for not bagging the P4. If you keep having all the winners its only a matter of time until you get a little luckier with your ticket structure.

recap
 

Terrific election day card went pretty much according to hoyle, as one would expect from the most "form reliable" track in the country. The biggest win price on the day was in the nightcap and that was $13. Glad that some of the derby trail denizens took a day from their wretched NY racing and added to the pool, only sorry there were no scores.

The opening leg of the late 4 featured a dozen youngsters with nine of them being debut runners. We spread here looking for chaos and injecting some value into the play, but Robby wins it on the Klein homebred returning $10.40 and winning somewhat comfortably. Taking firsters in sequence bets is always a challenge and the horses must be both physically and mentally ready which requires the capper to make assumptions, oft times with limited or missing data. Our seven charges ran 1,2,3,4,5,6,and 8th and we escaped but expended serious capital to do so.

Race 8 was an entry level allowance for f&m going six and a half panels. In this type of heat class generally trumps speed, yet most players bet the opposite! Calvins, Forestry filly laid all over them classwise returning a bettable $12.80 mostly due to to her polytrack debacle at Keeneland. Competent cappers noticed that in all four of her poly efforts this filly never ran a jump and her race at Saratoga two back need only be duplicated to get the money here. We included the runnerup on our ticket who won easily in her only dirt outing and was winless on the synthetic ovals in five tries. Few horses relish more than one surface.

The feature is where our sequence imploded. We do not include horses because they "might win" on our tickets and it was difficult to have much confidence in Storm Treasure ($9.40) who won for the second time in a row after opening his career 1 for 18. Our selection Slam MY Heart figured a perfect trip and got it. The Romans colt had been in the money in seven of nine this year with two cases of being fractious. Didn't see the race but the chart indicates this one sat off the speed took over at the pole and wilted severely without cause. Perhaps what ever contributed double M to run this one for a tag, and the resulting sixty days off after the claim, reared its ugly head. 'Slam finished two lengths behind the horse he passed in the stretch so something went wrong and our ticket was toast.

The caboose was extremely formful but the conditions disturb us. California racing secretaries, years ago, faced with a multitude of horses that had broken their maidens but could not find any winning level thereafter, wrote this type of race and thus this ridicuous condition. Not as bad as the ludicrous new scratch rule which will not last thru the meet but thats another story. POSSIBI ($13) wins it for the aggressive Maker and if you train for K. Ramsey you have to be purse driven. The PID form has been a learning experience but when you win by a dozen as a 2yo, then repeatedly work lights out, your plenty dangerous. Our other single ran huge but could not get to the winner dropping a neck decision at half the price. The $2 four came back a buck and a half short of three large and we suspect many would like to have their ticket back, we would. Post again Friday probably at letitride. BBB

Getting past all the pompous double-talk, the bottom line as to why you didn't hit, virtually never do, and virtually never will, is that you simply do not bet in anything close to a responsible manner. I am loathe to think that anyone that genuinely wants to learn how to be successful in this game would pay you any mind whatsoever. Frankly, to spend as much time as you clearly seem to, and then bet only $14, is mind boggling. If you think so little of your own opinion how can you possibly expect anyone else to take you seriously?

Before taking your usual approach, or slamming me on another board, you should actually think about what I'm saying. In this case it's not at all whether you win or lose, but how you play the game......and you don't play it to win.

Sheesh. Don't encourage him to wager more $$$. He'll have posts that rival the old testament in length.

YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!!!, YOU PLLLLLLAAAAAYYY to WIN THE GAME!!!!

There is no way I could get through either of his posts as they were. If he starts cranking out longer versions, Steve will have to get more bandwidth.

Nice Herm Edwards there Scavs.

I tossed a Smokey and the Bandit line out last week that went by completely unnoticed. Before you fire back, I will say it for you..."Smokey and the Bandit is bootleg, how is anyone going to recognize a line from it?"

BTW

I have thought about your post and have read it thrice and I have no clue what you are trying to say. I agree my bet was a bit reckless, but the prices in the opening leg were hard to pass up, and I injected a ton of potential coin into the play.

In hindsight, I should have added the colt in the last who had about a fifteen percent higher chance of winning than the Five Star Day filly in the eighth, culling her off the ticket. I make many more statistical errors than cappin ones.

If I trashed you elsewhere and you did not deserve it, I apologize. BBB

It wasn't reckless....it was fruitless. Until you even make an attempt to learn to play multi-race wagers, with an actual focus on winning, you will be wasting your time. It is more important to learn to construct tickets in a manner that gives you a chance to win, assuming your opinions are at least OK, than it is to handicap successfully. The most successful bettors I know are far better at putting their play together than they are at handicapping. There's a great deal of ego in this game, and we all have one, but the most important thing is making money, not picking winners. You need to learn that these two things are far from one and the same.

Let me add......take a good luck at the Aqueduct Pick-6 thread from today. The person who won hit it did so because he constructed his play tremendously well, moreso I dare say than he handicapped brilliantly, and I think there is a great deal to be learned from that.

Also, please read " Exotic Betting " by Steve Crist.

I have never even heard of Smokey and the Bandit

You really didnt just say that...did you?

He must be very young.

Dude, I didn't grow up in the 50's....I know like the Bozo Show (I was actually ON the show and got to bucket 4 and was REAL COMEDY in the process), GI Joe, Transformers, Dukes of Hazzard and Thundercats

Your a yankee and even you have heard of Smokey and the Bandit:p

70's. Burt Reynolds and Sally Field (after The Flying Nun stint).

Exactly, I was a thought around then

I didn't realize Bozo was still around after the 70's.

Chicago staple until the late 80's i think. I was 7 when I was on it

I don't think he lasted that long in Massachusetts. Or he moved to Chicago.....

Thats crazy Scavs. I was on it too, as a contestant also. The game was Bozo's Bezerk Balloon Stomp. I had on a bright orange John Elway jersey and absolutely swept through my opponents. It so happens that in the finale, I went up against a girl who was celebrating her birthday, dusted her (birthday crown and all). She started wimpering after I took it to her, so Bozo, out of compassion I guess, gave her a prize pack as well. Big a$$ crayola set.

HOw ironic that we both participated...