BC Day 2 Plays
 

I could not have been more wrong about the first three BC races on Friday, but still had a shot at a big day, being alive to Discreet Cat and Wanderin' Boy in the Pick 4. That's horse racing. Hopefully, one of my attempts to cash a big ticket will pay off on Saturday.

Juvenile Fillies

($100) Win A to the Croft

($240) $1 Pick 4:

Smarty Deb
Proud Spell
A to the Croft

with

War Pass
Pyro
Globalization
Old Man Buck
Tale of Ekati

with

Honey Ryder
Nashoba's Key
Argentina
Danzon

with

Midnight Lute
Idiot Proof
Benny the Bull
Greg's Gold


Juvenile Colts

$264 (.10) Superfecta

Globalization, Old Man Buck
with All
with All
with All

(Oddly, the computers at Rosecroft Raceway, where I made my bets, gave me all 13 horses, even though Dixie Chatter is already scratched and the field is down to 12. So I'm already getting a refund.)


F&M Turf

($100) Win Danzon


Sprint

No Bets


Mile

($20) Win Host

($84) Pick 4

All

with

Balance
Lady Joanne
Lear's Princess
Octave
Indian Vale
Unbridled Belle

with

Dylan Thomas

with

Street Sense


Distaff

($100) Win Octave


Turf

($10) Win Fri Guy (I know, I know.)


Classic

(yet-to-be-determined amount) Win Street Sense


Pick 6

($96)

Argentina, Danzon
Midnight Lute, Idiot Proof
Host, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Excellent Art
Balance, Octave
Dylan Thomas
Street Sense, Tiago

Feel free to laugh openly. I know I am really reaching with a few of these, like Host. But they way I see it, there aren't many days in horse racing when you can take $1,000 and possibly turn it into $50,000 or more with just a little luck.

Good luck everybody. Happy Breeders' Cup!

I like Globalization a bit in the Juvy but that is a pretty agressive play with him as one of two on top of a big super.
I wouldn't want to place a $264 wager that depended on him or Old Man Buck in the top spot in that race.
I'm using Globalization and a couple of others underneath Tale of Ekati and Pyro in that one.

I give 8 horses a chance in the mile but Host is not one of them. What is so appealing about him?

I really wouldn't say he's "appealing". That's why I only put $20 on him, although I did use him in my Pick 6. Here's what I like, and like is a strong word:

-Grade 1 winner at the distance
-Winner over this track
-Solid closer
-Pletcher, who has to start winning on BC Day at some point
-30-1 or higher
-I don't like anyone else

I'm going 3 deep in each race.

Early Pick 4

Juvenile Fillies: Phantom Income, Irish Smoke, A To The Croft
Juvenile: War Pass, Kodiak Kowboy, Pyro
Filly & Mare Turf: Honey Ryder, Wait A While, Precious Kitten
Sprint: Midnight Lute, Attila's Storm, Commentator

Late Pick 4

Mile: After Market, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Silent Name
Distaff: Lady Joanne, Lear's Princess, Octave
Turf: Red Rocks, Better Talk Now, Dylan Thomas
Classic: Street Sense, Any Given Saturday, Diamond Stripes

I doubt if he actually goes off at 30/1. My guess would be he is more in the 15/1 - 20/1 range by post time.
I agree that his ability to turn on the kick late (which he did over this track, at this distance, earlier in the year) makes him a very live longshot, but I can't really get a feel for this race at all. That and my general inability to handicap turf races makes this a skip race for me.

Would seem to be the only reason that I could agree on. Would be a major fluke but at least you will get good odds. I'm thinking 50-1 or more in a 14 horse field. Though i do like him more than Icy Atlantic and My Typhoon who will be overbet because of her stupid name.

It is not that anyone is scary but he may get shuffled back with the speed on the outside. Plus he is not really that good. I believe that his win over the track is rendered meaningless due to the obviously different condition of the course. I'm not trying to talk you off him but I have heard several people say they like this horse and i cant see it. I think the Euro, Jeremy , may be a play at 10-1 or higher. Not buying into Excellent Art from the outside.

You really think he will be 50-1? If he is anywhere close to that I will have to change my mind and play the race and bet on him.
I think when people see the way the course is playing and the way he ran there last time they will actually bet him down from his 30-1 ML because there isn't anybody else that wonderful in here. At 20-1, I don't like him at all. At 40-1, I think he is very interesting.

If this bet hits, the return will be well into the thousands for a dime.

Well I suppose that is true, and looking at the bets you spelled out in this thread, you obviously have MUCH deeper pockets than I do.

Damn, I though EVERYONE would laugh at me for my Host pick, not just Chuck and Andy (although Andy hasn't laughed yet, but he will). Maybe I should toss a few more bucks on him.

Dont forget in 14 horse fields money is spreadout hence the longer than usual odds. I think Remarkable News is really bred for a soft turf.

Not necessarily. I haven't bet much at all since the Belmont Stakes. Just a few Pick 6s and some plays on Travers Day. Maybe a few other days here and there. Plus, the NFL has been good to me this year.

Not laughing...just trying to figure out the reasoning why I have seen at least 2 posters here and three guys at Keeneland talking about or picking a horse that I expected no one to pick. I would laugh at George Washington though. And Fry Guy gets a chuckle.

I think speed tired on in the juvy because the pace was fast despite Trevors call. They went the second half slower than the 1st which is not like usual on turf.

He is a bit interesting.
In his last start he didn't look like the same horse that ran at Pimlico and CD this spring, but the manner in which he gave way down the stretch looked like the classic case of a horse just needing a race. He certainly could be a factor.

I was actually just baiting because his breeding is totally obscure to all except Johan Santana and Hugo Chavez. I woul like him if you cut his post in half. Though if he leaves hard and other take back may be sitting third while not too wide on first turn. Impossibly tough race.

I really like Street Sense as well. But I am splitting the money I am betting on that race between a straight win bet on him, and an exacta box with him and Curlin.
Curlin still scares me.

Couldn't agree more.

I cant figure out how it will be run and the field is so close together...

I hate Dylan Thomas but cant come up with anything there either...except No Fri Guy or Transduction Gold.

Street Sense by a neck over AGS with Curlin making a too late, Easy Goer type move for third

Wow.....this explanation ought to be good.

His obscure sire Chayim's biggest accomplishment was being the sales topper at the '92 Barretts March 2yo sale - and winning a couple dirt sprints in southern Cal.

The dam was by the sire Alhajras (who never hit the board in two lifetime starts) and was 2-for-12 racing in the hotbed of thoroughbred stardom that is Hugo Chavez land.

His 2nd dam Inspiring was a hopeless Slew O' Gold who never ran first or second from seven tries.

I think Remarkable News' breeding is just plain soft.

And now I see I took the bait.


Thanks for wasting my time.....


It's not like I had anything better to do on a Friday night I guess.

This might be the first time that one of my posts hasn't turned into a battle of personal attacks between two other DTers within the first 20 replies.

I am going to toss Better Talk Now and the two you mentioned and use the other five in the late pick-3. I think the rain makes Shamdinan a potential threat, despite his last two dull efforts.

Value is the most misused word in the betting lexicon. Value is only important when you win. The races with the most value are the ones you get more money back in than you put in. Betting on losers who are good prices will get you broke in a hurry. If you love a horse and his price is too short and there are no exotic plays that make sense, skip the race. Too many guys go against the horse they think will win because they dont like his price. The horse they like wins, they lose but they feel good about themselves because the got value. Makes no sense. That is the Cannon Shell betting editorial of week.





I say this because i can already see me sitting there with $500 worth of losing tickets after this race saying...you know I shoulda had that....

I keep having this vision of BTN 10 wide passing them all...makes no sense but who the **** knows this year...

I also had a vision that it was going to rain at this BC though I thought it may be cold too...passed up freebie tickets... best call of the year

May the force be with you...

I was hoping for a Hossy training editorial for the week.....


all this time I could have been sending desperate text messages to Emily begging for her to give me a 7th chance.

I'm a little surprised that I have not heard anyone pick Nashoba's Key or Octave tomorrow. But then again, I haven't been listening that closely.

Of that I am thankfull.